B1G Realignment through an Academic Lens

[PURPLE Book Cat]

Considering B1G expansion options in the lens of the the US News Rankings yields several interesting insights.

In a 24 team scenario, consider (as the B1G presidents will) the academic profile and potential for research collaboration the B1G might have should it add most of the top 50 ranked schools listed below:

Realistic/Frequently Discussed Contenders:
Stanford 6
Duke 9
Notre Dame 19
Cal 22
UVA 25
UNC 28
Georgia Tech 38
Florida State 55
UMiami 55
Syracuse 59
Washington 59
Oregon 99
Colorado 99
Utah 99
Iowa State 122
Kansas 122

New Members:
UCLA 20
USC 27

Current Conference:
Northwestern 9
Michigan 23
Wisconsin 42
Illinois 47
Ohio State 49
Purdue 49
Maryland 59
Penn State 63
Rutgers 63
Indiana 68
Minnesota 68
Michigan State 83
Iowa 83
Nebraska 136

Unrealistic for the B1G but relevant to P5 realignment generally:
Wake Forest 28
Pitt 59
SMU 68
Virginia Tech 75
Clemson 75
BYU 75
NC State 75
Baylor 78
TCU 83
Arizona 103
Arizona State 117
Oregon State 162
Washington State 179
Oklahoma State 187
Texas Tech 213

Many will be surprised to know that Florida State is so highly regarded academically, There seems to be a sense that Miami has a much elevated academic profile compared to FSU, but in fact US News ranks them the same (both relatively high at 55).

Also, Washington in particular would be a good academic - and television market - fit for the conference. Oregon, on the other hand, is fringe at best in both categories. The B1G presidents let their “exceptional” candidate in when they invited Nebraska. Nebraska was an important lynchpin with a huge following and an exceptional history of football success. They will more likely be more selective and consider the academic and research qualities of candidate institutions while expanding this time around.

Notre Dame will become a member of the B1G and is now leading the discussion of who else to add. It is plausible that Notre Dame makes joining the B1G contingent on the B1G inviting Stanford. And then further plausible that Stanford makes its own joining contingent on the B1G inviting Cal. The B1G should do all of that.

The B1G has made known that it would like to incorporate UNC and UVA. It is also plausible, though less so, that UNC would only join with the contingency that the B1G invites Duke (and, it may be necessary to ensure that the SEC invites NC State). Virginia, likewise, may need assurances politically that Virginia Tech would have a strong home. For their part, the SEC would likely find value from NC State (in part for a great NC market) so long as it can also add the stronger Virginia Tech (traditional football power, good market). The B1G should be fine adding the smaller Duke to acquire the UNC property given its basketball brand, of course factoring in the academic and research power that Duke would add to the B1G.

By the way, as a Northwestern fan, I love the prospect for protected intraconference scheduling among NU, Duke, Stanford and Notre Dame. While some (see: West Virginia in the Big XII) dislike the lack of association among the schools, expansion finally facilitates the potential for relevant long term association for comparatively rival-less Northwestern. You can add Cal, USC, UCLA and UVA into that mix too.

Looking westward, Oregon doesn’t bring enough academic (or market) value to merit an B1G invite. If on the other hand Washington can break away from Washington State (right now, unlikely), it probably will. It doesn’t seem that Washington will be able to move independently though, at least not quickly enough.

Florida State is really intriguing, especially now that we have gone all the way to California. FSU’s academic standing is most certainly not a disqualifier. There have been rumblings that powerful voices (those in South Bend included) really do not like Miami. If you are the B1G, especially with all of the Florida-Northeast-Midwest connections and the importance of the state economically and athletically, you HAVE to be in Florida. Miami was a highly attractive option when Texas turned down the B1G’s invite without the strings attached to its Longhorn Network. It also sure looks like Notre Dame is “writing its terms” to enter the B1G by blocking out Miami, which of course the B1G should want to add.

Would Baylor (78) or TCU (83) bring enough to the conference academically to justify adding the Texas market? Not at all, particularly with the ongoing recruiting success that many B1G schools have in Texas.

Georgia Tech also has always made a lot of sense for the B1G. However, UNC is a bigger win for the B1G, and the question for the B1G and GT is whether any one of the following happens: either Stanford (at the behest of Notre Dame) must drop a requirement for Cal, UNC must drop a requirement for Duke, or Washington must be able to come without any obligation to Washington State (or Oregon). I actually think that the most likely scenario is that Washington will fail to independently join without baggage, opening the door to GT.

Discussions are moving aggressively now with television contract bidding ramping up, so we will likely see a massive shift over the next several months.

Schools will not want to be left in the abyss of a landscape outside of the B1G or the SEC, though several will be (in large part due to their inability to act swiftly enough before others take their spots). Ultimately though, there seems to be movement among the university and governance leaderships to act independently to take the opportunities they have at hand.

This is what the 24 team B1G will most likely consist of in 2025-2027:
Northwestern
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Ohio State
Purdue
Maryland
Penn State
Rutgers
Indiana
Minnesota
Michigan State
Iowa
Nebraska
Stanford
Duke
Notre Dame
Cal
UVA
UNC
Georgia Tech
Florida State
UCLA
USC

The big wild card right now is whether Washington can move on its own. If so, that most likely impacts Duke’s spot. Ironically that might lead to a SEC invite for UNC, which could open the door again for Duke to the B1G. As hard to imagine as it is, both Duke and UNC might head southward, which could open the door to Washington and Syracuse joining the B1G.

The television contract for this mix of schools, by the way, will likely eclipse $100/year per school. This is especially true if the B1G can add all of the Florida, Georgia and North Carolina markets.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Most of those schools on your list do not bring in enough to enlarge the pie. The only thing I agree with you on here is Florida State's counterintuitive attractiveness, though for some other reasons as well. It's not just the academics, but it pushes us into the Southeast into DMA's and a recruiting territory that is critical. Unfortunately, the thing working against them is that they aren't AAU (no school in Florida is), but I think for Florida, you might make an exception if the academics were reasonable and the football cache was there (like at UF or FSU and possibly Miami).

I also think you're putting academics way too highly. There is a bar to be met (AAU membership) but I don't think we care that much. Well, maybe it's a nice bonus, but there is no way we are taking Duke, and after looking at the numbers, I don't think Virginia (number of viewers for last 5 years is less than Northwestern's) is attractive. There's a reason Warren was originally eyeing Texas and OU and why their addition to the SEC was such a coup. The football cache is going to be important, not just for prestige, but because it actually drives viewership, especially after the blowback from Rutgers and Maryland, and the SEC basically passing us when they added TAMU (and Mizzou) instead, pushing into Texas, (and later UT and OU) to strengthen the football cache.

Basically, you need someone to pay for itself and make the pie bigger. Some of your schools used to make sense, but no longer due because the bar has been raised so high. Notre Dame still does. And may be the only one. Stanford, arguably by bringing NorCal DMA and if they are the contingency to bring in ND could justify its entry. Doesn't look like anyone else in the Pac-10 comes close (unless it be Arizona for Phoenix DMA, but they don't seem to have much viewership, but then neither did Rutgers or Maryland). And not sure anyone in the ACC does either, unless it was Clemson for football cache (but not AAU, not much of a DMA) or Georgia Tech (if they land you Atlanta) or UNC (if they pull the combination of RDU and Charlotte and that somehow is sufficiently big).

Surprised me, but the article on the FOXNews insider was illuminating, in that it revealed that Oregon and UDub, despite reasonable football cache and in the case of UDub, a decent DMA, don't even come close to paying for themselves. So forget the likes of Colorado. Haven't checked, but Florida State might given their cache and depending on what DMA's they pull in, and they have the added benefit of a history with ND and pushing into the most fertile recruiting territory in the country. Miami and UF being possibilities as well to get into Florida and given their cache (with Miami also having a history with ND). The only other schools that might make sense are whoever gets us into Texas. Unfortunately, the only two AAU schools there are TAMU and UT, and as others pointed out its hard to fathom them leaving for a number of reasons, though I do think TAMU might hate UT just enough to do it, and UT might have enough ego to think they belong more to and would rather associate with a national conference with academic stalwarts worthy of their presence than the toothless Bubbas they've decided to get into bed with.

Even you had pointed out a few years ago that it was all about DMAs and football cache, and the home run was UT + UF (+ND), and I'm agreeing with you there because all the reasons for it are still true, even if that particular combination seems far fetched at this point.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

Good point on the lack of AAU membership, but FSU’s academic profile has significant overall advantages over Nebraska’s. Now that Texas is out, California is in, Florida is the prize.

Notre Dame (and others?) does not want association with Miami. FSU is the only option.

The B1G presidents prioritize association with institutions that elevate the academic profile of the conference. This has been well documented - and in one of his few quotes since the USC/UCLA deal was announced, Kevin Warren released the following deliberately worded statement:

“As the national leader in academics and athletics for over 126 years, the Big Ten Conference has historically evaluated its membership with the collective goal to forward the academic and athletic mission for student-athletes under the umbrella of higher education”

Dissecting the release further, it states:

“After receiving written applications from the two universities, Big Ten Conference Commissioner Kevin Warren, alongside conference athletics directors and the Council of Presidents and Chancellors, evaluated the applications based on a dynamic model weighting four primary principles with supporting criteria. The principles include academics and culture; student-athlete welfare, competition, and logistics; commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion in sports; and financial sustainability. The model allows the conference to analyze criteria in a strategic and effective manner.”

Those clearly signal that the conference is strongly prioritizing academic fit for all institutions under consideration. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the strongest academic institutions, perhaps expectedly, often are co-located with the best regional economies and television markets.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

The B1G is not expanding into the southeast. It isn’t going to happen.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Good point on the lack of AAU membership, but FSU’s academic profile has significant overall advantages over Nebraska’s. Now that Texas is out, California is in, Florida is the prize.

Notre Dame (and others?) does not want association with Miami. FSU is the only option.

The B1G presidents prioritize association with institutions that elevate the academic profile of the conference. This has been well documented - and in one of his few quotes since the USC/UCLA deal was announced, Kevin Warren released the following deliberately worded statement:

“As the national leader in academics and athletics for over 126 years, the Big Ten Conference has historically evaluated its membership with the collective goal to forward the academic and athletic mission for student-athletes under the umbrella of higher education”

Dissecting the release further, it states:

“After receiving written applications from the two universities, Big Ten Conference Commissioner Kevin Warren, alongside conference athletics directors and the Council of Presidents and Chancellors, evaluated the applications based on a dynamic model weighting four primary principles with supporting criteria. The principles include academics and culture; student-athlete welfare, competition, and logistics; commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion in sports; and financial sustainability. The model allows the conference to analyze criteria in a strategic and effective manner.”

Those clearly signal that the conference is strongly prioritizing academic fit for all institutions under consideration. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the strongest academic institutions, perhaps expectedly, often are co-located with the best regional economies and television markets.

I don't disagree with the need for an academic fit. I don't see it as outweighing athletic especially football fit. We are not bringing in Duke, Wake, or anyone else who isn't going to land us big viewership or DMA's, period.

I agree we will not likely bring in someone like Clemson or OU given the academic fit and probably culture. Academic fit = AAU most likely. It doesn't mean we are going to prioritize someone like Vanderbilt or Kansas if they can't expand our financial pie. Question is whether we'd make an exception for the AAU requirement for anyone not named Notre Dame. I suppose if FSU or UF wanted in, we might (also what is this antagonism for Miami that you're referring to, didn't stop ND from associating with the ACC). And, btw, if we were looking at Nebraska today, I don't think they would have made the cut (they were AAU when we invited them). I also don't know if UT and/or TAMU are 100% out. I give it a 1% chance at least given TAMU's hatred of and desire to get away from UT and UT's ego that might have them thinking the SEC is too regional for someone of their importance, but I'm probably wrong.

 

[docrugby1]

Most of those schools on your list do not bring in enough to enlarge the pie. The only thing I agree with you on here is Florida State's counterintuitive attractiveness, though for some other reasons as well. It's not just the academics, but it pushes us into the Southeast into DMA's and a recruiting territory that is critical. Unfortunately, the thing working against them is that they aren't AAU (no school in Florida is), but I think for Florida, you might make an exception if the academics were reasonable and the football cache was there (like at UF or FSU and possibly Miami).

I also think you're putting academics way too highly. There is a bar to be met (AAU membership) but I don't think we care that much. Well, maybe it's a nice bonus, but there is no way we are taking Duke, and after looking at the numbers, I don't think Virginia (number of viewers for last 5 years is less than Northwestern's) is attractive. There's a reason Warren was originally eyeing Texas and OU and why their addition to the SEC was such a coup. The football cache is going to be important, not just for prestige, but because it actually drives viewership, especially after the blowback from Rutgers and Maryland, and the SEC basically passing us when they added TAMU (and Mizzou) instead, pushing into Texas, (and later UT and OU) to strengthen the football cache.

Basically, you need someone to pay for itself and make the pie bigger. Some of your schools used to make sense, but no longer due because the bar has been raised so high. Notre Dame still does. And may be the only one. Stanford, arguably by bringing NorCal DMA and if they are the contingency to bring in ND could justify its entry. Doesn't look like anyone else in the Pac-10 comes close (unless it be Arizona for Phoenix DMA, but they don't seem to have much viewership, but then neither did Rutgers or Maryland). And not sure anyone in the ACC does either, unless it was Clemson for football cache (but not AAU, not much of a DMA) or Georgia Tech (if they land you Atlanta) or UNC (if they pull the combination of RDU and Charlotte and that somehow is sufficiently big).

Surprised me, but the article on the FOXNews insider was illuminating, in that it revealed that Oregon and UDub, despite reasonable football cache and in the case of UDub, a decent DMA, don't even come close to paying for themselves. So forget the likes of Colorado. Haven't checked, but Florida State might given their cache and depending on what DMA's they pull in, and they have the added benefit of a history with ND and pushing into the most fertile recruiting territory in the country. Miami and UF being possibilities as well to get into Florida and given their cache (with Miami also having a history with ND). The only other schools that might make sense are whoever gets us into Texas. Unfortunately, the only two AAU schools there are TAMU and UT, and as others pointed out its hard to fathom them leaving for a number of reasons, though I do think TAMU might hate UT just enough to do it, and UT might have enough ego to think they belong more to and would rather associate with a national conference with academic stalwarts worthy of their presence than the toothless Bubbas they've decided to get into bed with.

Even you had pointed out a few years ago that it was all about DMAs and football cache, and the home run was UT + UF (+ND), and I'm agreeing with you there because all the reasons for it are still true, even if that particular combination seems far fetched at this point.

 

[docrugby1]

"Toothless Bubbas "- I have moved to South Carolina and thanks to my rugby days I resent being lumped into my fellow South Carolinians, although your description, in my case, is factually accurate

 

[Katatonic]

Don't think the powers that be in the B1G are really interested in adding FSU, GT or UMiami.

If the B1G and SEC ended up raiding the ACC, think it'll be split along geographic lines.

 

[ohiovalleycat]

I don't disagree with the need for an academic fit. I don't see it as outweighing athletic especially football fit. We are not bringing in Duke, Wake, or anyone else who isn't going to land us big viewership or DMA's, period.

I agree we will not likely bring in someone like Clemson or OU given the academic fit and probably culture. Academic fit = AAU most likely. It doesn't mean we are going to prioritize someone like Vanderbilt or Kansas if they can't expand our financial pie. Question is whether we'd make an exception for the AAU requirement for anyone not named Notre Dame. I suppose if FSU or UF wanted in, we might (also what is this antagonism for Miami that you're referring to, didn't stop ND from associating with the ACC). And, btw, if we were looking at Nebraska today, I don't think they would have made the cut (they were AAU when we invited them). I also don't know if UT and/or TAMU are 100% out. I give it a 1% chance at least given TAMU's hatred of and desire to get away from UT and UT's ego that might have them thinking the SEC is too regional for someone of their importance, but I'm probably wrong.

Florida is AAU though they not leaving the SEC so its a moot point.

 

[NUCat320]

How is this relevant to football? </s>

 

[catfans5]

All the points are interesting on which schools. My daughter wants to major in “warm” and we toured the schools in the southeast and southwest. I think many folks underestimate the schools in the south. FSU has moved up dramatically in the last five years. FSU is a nice campus. Many new buildings. Baylor is pretty. I think it gets underestimated because of its religion affiliation. You have to attend chapel. It has a beautiful campus, is associated with Baylor Med, and has just put up a really impressive biz school. Va Tech is #75. Good sized school.

I think it is a mistake to abandon the south. It is such a fertile recruiting area. I would say screw ND. I would grab VaTech, FSU, Baylor, TCU, Wash and Oregon. You become the Nike conference. Heavily subsidize the travel for FSU and the Texas schools. Put FSU in a division with OSU. In Texas, contract for the Jerry Dome. Each year, have a marquee team play one game against Baylor and one game against TCU in the dome in Dallas. Finally, enter into contracts with the Sunbelt Conference and Confrrence USA for non conference games in football and basketball to keep relevant in the south.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Chew on this for a minute. Some of you have a perception about certain teams, but the truth says otherwise. This came from Boston College site:

Re: Maryland may actually be leaving the ACC​

by Dick Rosenthal on Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:41 pm

DrJackRyan {l Wrote}:Iowa would not be in North....still in Big 10 right?

innocentbystander {l Wrote}:Okay so Texas and Oklahoma are out, BYU, Central Florida, Houston, and Cincinnati are in.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...s-join-byu-houston-ucf-cincinnati/5721822001/

All 4 will join, why wouldn't they? So I'm thinking the conference will not do something ACC retarded and split the conference in some bullshit way. They will split geographically:

• North
• Cincinnati
• Kansas
• West Virginia
• Iowa
• K-State
• Iowa State
• 
  
• South
• BYU
• Houston
• Central Florida
• Baylor
• Texas Tech
• Oklahoma State

Have the conference championship in Arrowhead Stadium or maybe in St Louis. That would be reasonable. Its going to suck for Central Florida no matter which division they are placed. But Miami has been dealing with the same crap for decades.

I don't think they are going to want to wait until 2025 when Oklahoma and Texas are out. Why wait? Just expand to 14 if only temporarily. Texas no longer has any clout or say, they are leaving. Since BYU is independent they could probably join immediately. The others have to break their contracts with whatever shitball conference they are currently in.

Forget the Big !2, it's irrelevant. The SEC, Texas, Oklahoma and the south in general need to figure out their looming TV issues. Just looking at the ratings for this weekend as a microcosm for what they are facing. Clemson-Georgia, an epic showdown draws 7.8 million viewers at its peak on Saturday Night. Pretty good, except that Notre Dame-FSU on a Sunday Night dwarfed it with 8.8 million viewers at its peak. There was also much crowing about Clemson-Georgia possibly being the second highest Saturday kickoff primetime game in ABC's history, although it now looks like that will not be the case, finishing behind Ohio State-LSU and millions and millions of viewers behind Notre Dame-Texas. It gets worse for southern football when you look at the highest rated Saturday night games over the last 15 years (that's how far back the data goes that is findable). Despite having a bevy of primetime games with national title implications, the top primetime performers for ABC have been Notre Dame-Michigan, Notre Dame-USC, Ohio State-Penn State and its even worse with respect to the 3:30 national slot where there are five iterations of Ohio State-Michigan, a Michigan-Michigan State showdown, and two Penn State-Michigan games before you get to the top-rated SEC game on CBS. And before we start stating that it is easier to draw ratings on ABC than on CBS, it should be noted that the Notre Dame has had six games in the 3:30 time slot that outdrew the SEC's best on CBS. And just for shits and giggles, in comparing primetime games, Notre Dame-Clemson on NBC last year is the second highest primetime college football draw of the last 15 years, narrowly clipped by the aforementioned ND-Texas game. The highest rated college football game of all time continues to be the 1993 version of ND-FSU, which drew 23 million viewers for a Saturday afternoon game (in an admittedly different media environment).

The point of all of this is that mediocre northern/midwestern football crushes the absolute apex of what southern football brings to TV sets/laptops/smart phones. Rather than wasting their time getting into a regional arms race they can't win, the SEC should use the cyclical advantage it has now to figure out a way to draw the much larger northern audiences. We are headed to a 64 team league one way or the other, might as well do it now while the south has a lot of leverage. If things flip, as they seem to do every twenty years or so, and USC, Notre Dame, Michigan join Ohio State as posing a threat to SEC dominance, the Bamas, Auburns, and LSUs of the world are going to get a far less robust deal.

 

[Katatonic]

I think it is a mistake to abandon the south. It is such a fertile recruiting area. I would say screw ND. I would grab VaTech, FSU, Baylor, TCU, Wash and Oregon. You become the Nike conference. Heavily subsidize the travel for FSU and the Texas schools. Put FSU in a division with OSU. In Texas, contract for the Jerry Dome. Each year, have a marquee team play one game against Baylor and one game against TCU in the dome in Dallas. Finally, enter into contracts with the Sunbelt Conference and Confrrence USA for non conference games in football and basketball to keep relevant in the south.

Don't think you abandon the south as a recruiting area just b/c the B1G doesn't have a footprint in the south, and by that, I mean the deep south as expect the B1G to eventually go after UNC.

Powers like dOSU, UM and PSU get players from the south, as do schools like Wisky and even NU.

Let's say the B1G adds FSU and GT - would that really help recruiting from FL and GA for a school like Purdue?

If a FL recruit ended up at PU, his family would probably get to see him play only once at FSU (assuming a 24 school conference with 4 divisions).

Don't see how that would really change the calculation for recruits who want their family to be able to see them play in person.

What the B1G can do to make things more attractive for these recruits (we're mostly talking about recruits from a certain socio-economic class) is to pay for airfare and lodging for immediate family members for say, 2 regular season games a year and any postseason games.

Schools like Baylor and TCU are simply not an option.

They do not fit culturally, nor do they fit the academic profile that the B1G Presidents and Chancellors want.

Furthermore, there's no way the conference will want to be the 3rd and 4th bananas in the state of Texas, and we're talking a distant 3rd and 4th.

Heck, don't think the conference really wants to be the 2nd banana in FL (out of the FL schools, UF best fits the B1G profile).

That's why think that GT is not really an option despite it being located in the "capital of the south."

UGA (and hence, the SEC) owns both Atlanta and the state of GA.

Its not like how MSU is the "little brother" to UM, GT is a far distant 2nd to UGA.

With the B1G and SEC being the 2 Tier 1 conference, more southern recruits will find their way to the B1G (there's only so many of them that the SEC can take).

Plus, with youtube, tiktok, instagram, etc. and NIL - creating your own brand has become very important for recruits (there are high school BB stars with millions of followers).

What better way to help build your brand than to play in the major media markets of NYC, DC, Chicago, LA and likely the Bay area?

That's something the SEC cannot offer.

 

[NUCat320]

For what it’s worth, during my decade in ATL, GT was no more than the fourth most popular school in ATL, behind UGA and Bama and Auburn, and also likely behind Tennessee and UF and FSU. (Weirdly, I don’t recall that much Clemson, but a ton of OSU), similar to the Northwestern/Chicago thing — so many grads from SEC schools migrate to ATL, and so many grew up in greater ATL before heading out to nearby state schools, and then bring those loyalties back when they return.

And, perhaps it goes without saying, but UGA is about 100x as popular as Illinois is in Chicago (and about 4x as popular as ND is).

All that said, I’d love GT to join NU in a ‘nerds’ division of the new B1G.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

Don't think you abandon the south as a recruiting area just b/c the B1G doesn't have a footprint in the south, and by that, I mean the deep south as expect the B1G to eventually go after UNC.

Powers like dOSU, UM and PSU get players from the south, as do schools like Wisky and even NU.

Let's say the B1G adds FSU and GT - would that really help recruiting from FL and GA for a school like Purdue?

If a FL recruit ended up at PU, his family would probably get to see him play only once at FSU (assuming a 24 school conference with 4 divisions).

Don't see how that would really change the calculation for recruits who want their family to be able to see them play in person.

What the B1G can do to make things more attractive for these recruits (we're mostly talking about recruits from a certain socio-economic class) is to pay for airfare and lodging for immediate family members for say, 2 regular season games a year and any postseason games.

Schools like Baylor and TCU are simply not an option.

They do not fit culturally, nor do they fit the academic profile that the B1G Presidents and Chancellors want.

Furthermore, there's no way the conference will want to be the 3rd and 4th bananas in the state of Texas, and we're talking a distant 3rd and 4th.

Heck, don't think the conference really wants to be the 2nd banana in FL (out of the FL schools, UF best fits the B1G profile).

That's why think that GT is not really an option despite it being located in the "capital of the south."

UGA (and hence, the SEC) owns both Atlanta and the state of GA.

Its not like how MSU is the "little brother" to UM, GT is a far distant 2nd to UGA.

With the B1G and SEC being the 2 Tier 1 conference, more southern recruits will find their way to the B1G (there's only so many of them that the SEC can take).

Plus, with youtube, tiktok, instagram, etc. and NIL - creating your own brand has become very important for recruits (there are high school BB stars with millions of followers).

What better way to help build your brand than to play in the major media markets of NYC, DC, Chicago, LA and likely the Bay area?

That's something the SEC cannot offer.

Less has to do with recruiting than picking up the television markets of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

 

[JJCane]

Considering B1G expansion options in the lens of the the US News Rankings yields several interesting insights.

In a 24 team scenario, consider (as the B1G presidents will) the academic profile and potential for research collaboration the B1G might have should it add most of the top 50 ranked schools listed below:

Realistic/Frequently Discussed Contenders:
Stanford 6
Duke 9
Notre Dame 19
Cal 22
UVA 25
UNC 28
Georgia Tech 38
Florida State 55
UMiami 55
Syracuse 59
Washington 59
Oregon 99
Colorado 99
Utah 99
Iowa State 122
Kansas 122

New Members:
UCLA 20
USC 27

Current Conference:
Northwestern 9
Michigan 23
Wisconsin 42
Illinois 47
Ohio State 49
Purdue 49
Maryland 59
Penn State 63
Rutgers 63
Indiana 68
Minnesota 68
Michigan State 83
Iowa 83
Nebraska 136

Unrealistic for the B1G but relevant to P5 realignment generally:
Wake Forest 28
Pitt 59
SMU 68
Virginia Tech 75
Clemson 75
BYU 75
NC State 75
Baylor 78
TCU 83
Arizona 103
Arizona State 117
Oregon State 162
Washington State 179
Oklahoma State 187
Texas Tech 213

Many will be surprised to know that Florida State is so highly regarded academically, There seems to be a sense that Miami has a much elevated academic profile compared to FSU, but in fact US News ranks them the same (both relatively high at 55).

Also, Washington in particular would be a good academic - and television market - fit for the conference. Oregon, on the other hand, is fringe at best in both categories. The B1G presidents let their “exceptional” candidate in when they invited Nebraska. Nebraska was an important lynchpin with a huge following and an exceptional history of football success. They will more likely be more selective and consider the academic and research qualities of candidate institutions while expanding this time around.

Notre Dame will become a member of the B1G and is now leading the discussion of who else to add. It is plausible that Notre Dame makes joining the B1G contingent on the B1G inviting Stanford. And then further plausible that Stanford makes its own joining contingent on the B1G inviting Cal. The B1G should do all of that.

The B1G has made known that it would like to incorporate UNC and UVA. It is also plausible, though less so, that UNC would only join with the contingency that the B1G invites Duke (and, it may be necessary to ensure that the SEC invites NC State). Virginia, likewise, may need assurances politically that Virginia Tech would have a strong home. For their part, the SEC would likely find value from NC State (in part for a great NC market) so long as it can also add the stronger Virginia Tech (traditional football power, good market). The B1G should be fine adding the smaller Duke to acquire the UNC property given its basketball brand, of course factoring in the academic and research power that Duke would add to the B1G.

By the way, as a Northwestern fan, I love the prospect for protected intraconference scheduling among NU, Duke, Stanford and Notre Dame. While some (see: West Virginia in the Big XII) dislike the lack of association among the schools, expansion finally facilitates the potential for relevant long term association for comparatively rival-less Northwestern. You can add Cal, USC, UCLA and UVA into that mix too.

Looking westward, Oregon doesn’t bring enough academic (or market) value to merit an B1G invite. If on the other hand Washington can break away from Washington State (right now, unlikely), it probably will. It doesn’t seem that Washington will be able to move independently though, at least not quickly enough.

Florida State is really intriguing, especially now that we have gone all the way to California. FSU’s academic standing is most certainly not a disqualifier. There have been rumblings that powerful voices (those in South Bend included) really do not like Miami. If you are the B1G, especially with all of the Florida-Northeast-Midwest connections and the importance of the state economically and athletically, you HAVE to be in Florida. Miami was a highly attractive option when Texas turned down the B1G’s invite without the strings attached to its Longhorn Network. It also sure looks like Notre Dame is “writing its terms” to enter the B1G by blocking out Miami, which of course the B1G should want to add.

Would Baylor (78) or TCU (83) bring enough to the conference academically to justify adding the Texas market? Not at all, particularly with the ongoing recruiting success that many B1G schools have in Texas.

Georgia Tech also has always made a lot of sense for the B1G. However, UNC is a bigger win for the B1G, and the question for the B1G and GT is whether any one of the following happens: either Stanford (at the behest of Notre Dame) must drop a requirement for Cal, UNC must drop a requirement for Duke, or Washington must be able to come without any obligation to Washington State (or Oregon). I actually think that the most likely scenario is that Washington will fail to independently join without baggage, opening the door to GT.

Discussions are moving aggressively now with television contract bidding ramping up, so we will likely see a massive shift over the next several months.

Schools will not want to be left in the abyss of a landscape outside of the B1G or the SEC, though several will be (in large part due to their inability to act swiftly enough before others take their spots). Ultimately though, there seems to be movement among the university and governance leaderships to act independently to take the opportunities they have at hand.

This is what the 24 team B1G will most likely consist of in 2025-2027:
Northwestern
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Ohio State
Purdue
Maryland
Penn State
Rutgers
Indiana
Minnesota
Michigan State
Iowa
Nebraska
Stanford
Duke
Notre Dame
Cal
UVA
UNC
Georgia Tech
Florida State
UCLA
USC

The big wild card right now is whether Washington can move on its own. If so, that most likely impacts Duke’s spot. Ironically that might lead to a SEC invite for UNC, which could open the door again for Duke to the B1G. As hard to imagine as it is, both Duke and UNC might head southward, which could open the door to Washington and Syracuse joining the B1G.

The television contract for this mix of schools, by the way, will likely eclipse $100/year per school. This is especially true if the B1G can add all of the Florida, Georgia and North Carolina markets.

FSU is a laughingstock of a regional university with poor leadership and financial issues located in an inconsequential media market in the panhandle of Florida. No one in legitimate academic circles gives a flying you-know-what about US News' opinion. Their criteria is ridiculous and it's become and online shell of its former self designed to be click-bait. Culturally FSU would be a terrible fit in the B1G.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

“Laughingstock of a regional university with poor leadership,” sadly, does not seem to differentiate it from several of the B1G programs. How would “one in legitimate academic circles” evaluate Nebraska, Iowa, or Michigan State as compared to Florida State?

And how does the culture of Maryland or Rutgers mesh with that of USC or UCLA? Do they fit?

The more relevant criteria here are that FSU has the 15th most valuable college athletics brand that is directly relevant (and would contractually encompass) the 13th, 14th and 17th largest DMAs - all of which (unlike the SEC) would be additive and complementary to the existing B1G brand.

 

[JJCane]

“Laughingstock of a regional university with poor leadership,” sadly, does not seem to differentiate it from several of the B1G programs. How would “one in legitimate academic circles” evaluate Nebraska, Iowa, or Michigan State as compared to Florida State?

And how does the culture of Maryland or Rutgers mesh with that of USC or UCLA? Do they fit?

The more relevant criteria here are that FSU has the 15th most valuable college athletics brand that is directly relevant (and would contractually encompass) the 13th, 14th and 17th largest DMAs - all of which (unlike the SEC) would be additive and complementary to the existing B1G brand.

What you have and what you'd add are two different things IMO. Iowa doesn't bring much that is special but they are fully embedded in the culture, tradition, geography and history of the B1G. Nebraska, Iowa, Maryland and Rutgers are the preeminent Universities in their states with large, loyal alumni bases. USC and UCLA are self-explanatory. MSU somewhat too, but if you disagree we can discuss it. Personally I think Nebraska was a mistake that the Big 10 wouldn't make today, but that's another conversation. The Big 10 seems to value MD and Rutgers media markets, so... ok, they made a choice. Today? Maybe not so much.

FSU is the little sister to both UF and Miami in Florida, and also has to deal with the SEC all around them, specifically Alabama and UGA nearby. FSU brings no significant media market to the table. FSU athletics, especially football (haven't had a winning season since 2017), is on the downslope. They are having financial issues as well and have dysfunctional leadership. And even UCF is nipping at their heels. Sure, the Big 10 could be the hero that shores up their finances, but is that really what you're looking to do?

I absolutely love what Wayne Gretzky once said, "I don't ever skate to the puck, I skate to where the puck is going." The conference needs to project where these programs are going, not where they've been. FSU is quite unstable right now, and would be a risky bet. Yes, they are still a great brand, but leadership is going to have to do their due diligence on them. And if they are deemed desirable by those in power across CFB (B1G, SEC, ESPN, FOX, etc), the SEC would probably get them anyway as they are a MUCH better fit academically, culturally and geographically.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

What you have and what you'd add are two different things IMO. Iowa doesn't bring much that is special but they are fully embedded in the culture, tradition, geography and history of the B1G. Nebraska, Iowa, Maryland and Rutgers are the preeminent Universities in their states with large, loyal alumni bases. USC and UCLA are self-explanatory. MSU somewhat too, but if you disagree we can discuss it. Personally I think Nebraska was a mistake that the Big 10 wouldn't make today, but that's another conversation. The Big 10 seems to value MD and Rutgers media markets, so... ok, they made a choice. Today? Maybe not so much.

FSU is the little sister to both UF and Miami in Florida, and also has to deal with the SEC all around them, specifically Alabama and UGA nearby. FSU brings no significant media market to the table. FSU athletics, especially football (haven't had a winning season since 2017), is on the downslope. They are having financial issues as well and have dysfunctional leadership. And even UCF is nipping at their heels. Sure, the Big 10 could be the hero that shores up their finances, but is that really what you're looking to do?

I absolutely love what Wayne Gretzky once said, "I don't ever skate to the puck, I skate to where the puck is going." The conference needs to project where these programs are going, not where they've been. FSU is quite unstable right now, and would be a risky bet. Yes, they are still a great brand, but leadership is going to have to do their due diligence on them. And if they are deemed desirable by those in power across CFB (B1G, SEC, ESPN, FOX, etc), the SEC would probably get them anyway as they are a MUCH better fit academically, culturally and geographically.

Perhaps a little sister, but a little sister with three more National Championships than half of the B1G combined. And their current state of dysfunction relative to the rest of its history makes FSU more likely to make a big change.

Economically, the SEC has far less to gain from adding a major Florida school than does the B1G.

There is resistance to Miami to the B1G, and speculation that the resistance is coming from South Bend. I personally believe that Miami would be a better overall fit for the B1G (and no less of a cultural fit than it would be within the SEC), but the academic profiles of Miami and FSU are not as dissimilar as many might presume.

re: Nebraska - that domino had to fall to start the momentum to the B1G. The WSJ still ranks it the 15th most valuable brand in college sports, which (especially in consideration of geography and cultural fit) made it a worthwhile addition at the time. Even if it fails to start performing - and pulling its weight economically - it was the catalyst for more developments that made it a net positive for the B1G.

The shrewd Nebraska addition was not made in isolation. There were other schools that the B1G had ambitious plans to include at the time. One (Texas) did not work out, and one (Notre Dame) is still very much in the works. I personally believe that Jim Delaney had plans in the works with USC we’ll before Nebraska joined the B1G. The timing of USC’s notification to the B1G seemed to be a submarine surface event immediately before the renegotiation of PAC TV rights. In isolation, Washington is the only other school that *might* make sense to add from the PAC. Stanford makes sense if it drives Notre Dame to the conference (and with the growing paucity of available scheduling alternatives outside of B1G control or imminent conference collapse, this likely is the needed factor to finally force(d?) that eventuality to happen).

Outside of that move (and outside of the SEC), North Carolina, Florida State, and Miami are the only schools that would clearly add enough value to add to the B1G in impending TV contract negotiations. Unless Notre Dame is involved, it is unlikely that the B1G will make a move involving any other school.

 

[JJCane]

Perhaps a little sister, but a little sister with three more National Championships than half of the B1G combined. And their current state of dysfunction relative to the rest of its history makes FSU more likely to make a big change.

Economically, the SEC has far less to gain from adding a major Florida school than does the B1G.

There is resistance to Miami to the B1G, and speculation that the resistance is coming from South Bend. I personally believe that Miami would be a better overall fit for the B1G (and no less of a cultural fit than it would be within the SEC), but the academic profiles of Miami and FSU are not as dissimilar as many might presume.

re: Nebraska - that domino had to fall to start the momentum to the B1G. The WSJ still ranks it the 15th most valuable brand in college sports, which (especially in consideration of geography and cultural fit) made it a worthwhile addition at the time. Even if it fails to start performing - and pulling its weight economically - it was the catalyst for more developments that made it a net positive for the B1G.

The shrewd Nebraska addition was not made in isolation. There were other schools that the B1G had ambitious plans to include at the time. One (Texas) did not work out, and one (Notre Dame) is still very much in the works. I personally believe that Jim Delaney had plans in the works with USC we’ll before Nebraska joined the B1G. The timing of USC’s notification to the B1G seemed to be a submarine surface event immediately before the renegotiation of PAC TV rights. In isolation, Washington is the only other school that *might* make sense to add from the PAC. Stanford makes sense if it drives Notre Dame to the conference (and with the growing paucity of available scheduling alternatives outside of B1G control or imminent conference collapse, this likely is the needed factor to finally force(d?) that eventuality to happen).

Outside of that move (and outside of the SEC), North Carolina, Florida State, and Miami are the only schools that would clearly add enough value to add to the B1G in impending TV contract negotiations. Unless Notre Dame is involved, it is unlikely that the B1G will make a move involving any other school.

Good stuff. I get that I am guilty of recency bias, but trust what I wrote about FSU. Yes, they have three national championships, two under their one great sustained run (where Miami ate their lunch more often then not) under Bowden, but only one in this century, and those close to the program and their rivals will tell you they sold their soul for that one. They covered up Winston's sexual assault, committed title IX violations, swept his thefts and more under the rug to keep him eligible.

Jimbo Fisher left because FSU wouldn't (couldn't?) make the financial commitment (not talking about his salary) to the program that was clearly going to be necessary to compete in the new college landscape. Look at who they've hired since, and look how they keep losing their best assistants. Miami and UF (even though the Gators made what looks like a poor hire) have made the necessary commitment to compete with the top spending programs, which is going to hurt FSU further. They can't even afford to fire Norvell because they are still paying Taggart's buyout.

As far as the SEC, and again, this is if you're right and FSU is deemed desirable by the CFB powers that be, the value of FSU would be whatever they bring to the table, but also keeping the B1G OUT. Dominating the richest recruiting areas in the country, FL and the surrounding SEC states.

ND resisting Miami is perfect. They could not be more transparent. From their petty "Catholics vs. Convicts" junk (Miami had more Catholics on their team than they did!) to their dirty play and starting fights in the tunnel, etc. They are hypocrisy incarnate. Which is why they are so fun to loathe. The B1G can easily call their bluff, they don't hold as many cards as they think suddenly. TAMU couldn't keep Texas out of the SEC, and they were a member. Many other similar instances. Money talks. Miami is a major, major TV draw, is in the middle of the most fertile recruiting area in the country, plays in a Super Bowl/CFP stadium, is basically NFL-U, and as you know has 5 National Championships, or 66% more than FSU . As important, we've just made a nearly blank check commitment to our AD. We have a top HC, one of the best staff's in the country, the highest coaching budget in the ACC, a new nine figure football complex about to be revealed, we just took Clemson's AD who started his career at Miami, and our HC "came home" to his dream job with a 10-year deal. We've basically promised Mario (in writing) that we will financially compete with the best of the best. The commitment to the UHealth project is now spitting out hundreds of millions of dollars a year in profit so the University has the flexibility to fund different pillars university-wide. We also have a handful of billionaires and near-billionaires (the Mas Brothers, Ruiz', Soffers, Lemonis, etc) that are now committed to supporting major projects, since the U has shown they are committed to building back a serious AD and winning.

From what I understand there is significant interest from both the B1G and the SEC for Miami. The SEC is also interested in Clemson. I've heard that FSU isn't as attractive to both, but if we're talking about two 20 team super conferences, its hard to imagine they won't make the cut.

Miami and FSU are not in the same class. Miami is a far superior university, in almost every way. It's a small, private university (11k undergrads) with small class sizes, tremendous research accomplishments (especially per capita), an international student body, a larger endowment (especially per capita), and many more superior metrics in a gorgeous suburb full of homes that range up to $60M just 15 minutes south of one of the most exciting and beautiful cities in the country. Many FSU kids come from academically deficient parts of the state so their GPA's are elevated. Almost no one who gets into UF (or Miami if they can afford it) goes to FSU. UCF and USF are even eating into their applications. The perception is even more disparate.

The B1G will ABSOLUTELY be expanding further. The only question is who and when. Two super conferences are inevitable.

If it were up to me, Miami would join the B1G, there travel be damned. But the word is Miami and Clemson to the SEC.

Q: Why Washington but not Oregon? Seattle media market? Oregon athletics and facilities are far superior.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

"As far as the SEC, and again, this is if you're right and FSU is deemed desirable by the CFB powers that be, the value of FSU would be whatever they bring to the table, but also keeping the B1G OUT."

Well that sure is an interesting thought. Perhaps the B1G wants to force FSU to join the SEC? It almost is as if the B1G would have an incentive to influence the conversation with plausible deniability.

Perhaps it comes down to Miami vs. ND to the B1G?

 

[JJCane]

"As far as the SEC, and again, this is if you're right and FSU is deemed desirable by the CFB powers that be, the value of FSU would be whatever they bring to the table, but also keeping the B1G OUT."

Well that sure is an interesting thought. Perhaps the B1G wants to force FSU to join the SEC? It almost is as if the B1G would have an incentive to influence the conversation with plausible deniability.

Perhaps it comes down to Miami vs. ND to the B1G?

It might. But I am being told by someone knowledgable (usual disclaimers) that Miami and Clemson to the SEC is almost done. So it seems some more dominoes are falling soon. We will see.

I'm a little weirded out. SEC is legit, and the money is there, but culturally its a terrible fit. Miami is an international highly diverse multi-cultural cosmopolitan private university that draws students from Miami, NYC, Boston, Chicago, etc. The SEC? I enjoy making fun of them. That said, flying from Miami to B1G country for every game really makes no sense. Coral Gables to Ann Arbor for a girls softball game? And playing baseball in the frigid B1G? It's not who we are.

And yeah I know "but USC and UCLA are doing it." They didn't really have any other viable option. If it's the SEC or B1G that are the superpowers, USC and UCLA are screwed geographically anyway.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

Nothing is finalized until the press release goes out. (Or the next expiration deadline for media rights negotiations.)

 

[JJCane]

Nothing is finalized until the press release goes out. (Or the next expiration deadline for media rights negotiations.)

1000%.

 

[NUCat320]

Nothing is finalized until the press release goes out. (Or the next expiration deadline for media rights negotiations.)

Just look at “The Alliance”!

 

[JJCane]

Just look at “The Alliance”!

Words, no paper though. No deliverables or obligations. Window dressing. But yeah I hear you.

 

[Katatonic]

Less has to do with recruiting than picking up the television markets of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.

Do UMiami and GT really get the big viewership in FL and GA?

UNC for NC - yes.

FL is split among not only among UF, FSU and UMiami, but also UCF and USF, with UF having the largest following in the state.

Plus, you have all the transplants who follow their alma mater or state school.

As NUCat230 stated, GT is at best, the 4th largest draw in Atlanta (and we're talking a very distant 4th).

A Penn State/Wisconsin clash would get more viewers in Atlanta than GT/Iowa.

Viewers in the big metro areas will watch the best games.

Had chats with numerous people who watched the 54-51 game who had no connection to the B1G.

These types of viewers watch the big matchups (UM/ND) or games w/ at least 1 big name which are exciting like the 54-51 game.

It might. But I am being told by someone knowledgable (usual disclaimers) that Miami and Clemson to the SEC is almost done. So it seems some more dominoes are falling soon. We will see.

And yeah I know "but USC and UCLA are doing it." They didn't really have any other viable option. If it's the SEC or B1G that are the superpowers, USC and UCLA are screwed geographically anyway.

If SEC ends up taking Miami and Clemson (can't see them leaving FSU out), then can see the B1G picking up UNC, Oregon and Washington (esp. if Uncle Phil is willing to pony up the $$).

Don't think either conference would stop at 18 or 20, but expand all the way to 24 schools each.

 

[WildcatWillie]

Personally, I find this thread to have valuable thoughts from all directions. Almost like being in a room with really insightful people in discussion. That said, nobody knows anything!

 

[EvanstonCat]

It might. But I am being told by someone knowledgable (usual disclaimers) that Miami and Clemson to the SEC is almost done. So it seems some more dominoes are falling soon. We will see.

I'm a little weirded out. SEC is legit, and the money is there, but culturally its a terrible fit. Miami is an international highly diverse multi-cultural cosmopolitan private university that draws students from Miami, NYC, Boston, Chicago, etc. The SEC? I enjoy making fun of them. That said, flying from Miami to B1G country for every game really makes no sense. Coral Gables to Ann Arbor for a girls softball game? And playing baseball in the frigid B1G? It's not who we are.

And yeah I know "but USC and UCLA are doing it." They didn't really have any other viable option. If it's the SEC or B1G that are the superpowers, USC and UCLA are screwed geographically anyway.

The regional thing is overplayed. It's now a national footprint. I would prefer bringing in Miami over more Pac-10 schools to get B1G games exposure into the fertile South Florida recruiting territories and truly expand our national footprint. Now add a Texas school (preferably TAMU or UT, though I realize that is a moonshot).

You go to a B1G school, and you will be played and exposed to the entire country.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

Do UMiami and GT really get the big viewership in FL and GA?

UNC for NC - yes.

FL is split among not only among UF, FSU and UMiami, but also UCF and USF, with UF having the largest following in the state.

Plus, you have all the transplants who follow their alma mater or state school.

As NUCat230 stated, GT is at best, the 4th largest draw in Atlanta (and we're talking a very distant 4th).

A Penn State/Wisconsin clash would get more viewers in Atlanta than GT/Iowa.

Viewers in the big metro areas will watch the best games.

Had chats with numerous people who watched the 54-51 game who had no connection to the B1G.

These types of viewers watch the big matchups (UM/ND) or games w/ at least 1 big name which are exciting like the 54-51 game.





If SEC ends up taking Miami and Clemson (can't see them leaving FSU out), then can see the B1G picking up UNC, Oregon and Washington (esp. if Uncle Phil is willing to pony up the $$).

Don't think either conference would stop at 18 or 20, but expand all the way to 24 schools each.

Florida State (and Miami) definitely has a broad interest in Florida. That would mean the automatic inclusion of the Miami, Tampa and Orlando DMAs in contractual negotiations.

Georgia Tech is an interesting property. It is the second school (by a wide, wide margin - not like Michigan/Michigan State, for example) in a rabid football state with a relatively small alumni base. It is probably big enough to carry the top-10 Atlanta DMA in contractual negotiations - especially with the broader strength of the B1G.

From a football standpoint, GT would likely become more of a curiosity in Georgia. It also would open the door for an intense marketing effort by the B1G in the Atlanta area and give the South a rooting interest in the North’s mega-conference. GT also has a long established football history and tradition, though its recent performance has waned (though the triple option and Calvin Johnson were sure fun to watch). Rutgers - the “birthplace of college football” - is an interesting comparison to GT.

Academically, GT would fit just fine in the B1G.