Considering B1G expansion options in the lens of the the US News Rankings yields several interesting insights.
In a 24 team scenario, consider (as the B1G presidents will) the academic profile and potential for research collaboration the B1G might have should it add most of the top 50 ranked schools listed below:
Realistic/Frequently Discussed Contenders:
Stanford 6
Duke 9
Notre Dame 19
Cal 22
UVA 25
UNC 28
Georgia Tech 38
Florida State 55
UMiami 55
Syracuse 59
Washington 59
Oregon 99
Colorado 99
Utah 99
Iowa State 122
Kansas 122
New Members:
UCLA 20
USC 27
Current Conference:
Northwestern 9
Michigan 23
Wisconsin 42
Illinois 47
Ohio State 49
Purdue 49
Maryland 59
Penn State 63
Rutgers 63
Indiana 68
Minnesota 68
Michigan State 83
Iowa 83
Nebraska 136
Unrealistic for the B1G but relevant to P5 realignment generally:
Wake Forest 28
Pitt 59
SMU 68
Virginia Tech 75
Clemson 75
BYU 75
NC State 75
Baylor 78
TCU 83
Arizona 103
Arizona State 117
Oregon State 162
Washington State 179
Oklahoma State 187
Texas Tech 213
Many will be surprised to know that Florida State is so highly regarded academically, There seems to be a sense that Miami has a much elevated academic profile compared to FSU, but in fact US News ranks them the same (both relatively high at 55).
Also, Washington in particular would be a good academic - and television market - fit for the conference. Oregon, on the other hand, is fringe at best in both categories. The B1G presidents let their “exceptional” candidate in when they invited Nebraska. Nebraska was an important lynchpin with a huge following and an exceptional history of football success. They will more likely be more selective and consider the academic and research qualities of candidate institutions while expanding this time around.
Notre Dame will become a member of the B1G and is now leading the discussion of who else to add. It is plausible that Notre Dame makes joining the B1G contingent on the B1G inviting Stanford. And then further plausible that Stanford makes its own joining contingent on the B1G inviting Cal. The B1G should do all of that.
The B1G has made known that it would like to incorporate UNC and UVA. It is also plausible, though less so, that UNC would only join with the contingency that the B1G invites Duke (and, it may be necessary to ensure that the SEC invites NC State). Virginia, likewise, may need assurances politically that Virginia Tech would have a strong home. For their part, the SEC would likely find value from NC State (in part for a great NC market) so long as it can also add the stronger Virginia Tech (traditional football power, good market). The B1G should be fine adding the smaller Duke to acquire the UNC property given its basketball brand, of course factoring in the academic and research power that Duke would add to the B1G.
By the way, as a Northwestern fan, I love the prospect for protected intraconference scheduling among NU, Duke, Stanford and Notre Dame. While some (see: West Virginia in the Big XII) dislike the lack of association among the schools, expansion finally facilitates the potential for relevant long term association for comparatively rival-less Northwestern. You can add Cal, USC, UCLA and UVA into that mix too.
Looking westward, Oregon doesn’t bring enough academic (or market) value to merit an B1G invite. If on the other hand Washington can break away from Washington State (right now, unlikely), it probably will. It doesn’t seem that Washington will be able to move independently though, at least not quickly enough.
Florida State is really intriguing, especially now that we have gone all the way to California. FSU’s academic standing is most certainly not a disqualifier. There have been rumblings that powerful voices (those in South Bend included) really do not like Miami. If you are the B1G, especially with all of the Florida-Northeast-Midwest connections and the importance of the state economically and athletically, you HAVE to be in Florida. Miami was a highly attractive option when Texas turned down the B1G’s invite without the strings attached to its Longhorn Network. It also sure looks like Notre Dame is “writing its terms” to enter the B1G by blocking out Miami, which of course the B1G should want to add.
Would Baylor (78) or TCU (83) bring enough to the conference academically to justify adding the Texas market? Not at all, particularly with the ongoing recruiting success that many B1G schools have in Texas.
Georgia Tech also has always made a lot of sense for the B1G. However, UNC is a bigger win for the B1G, and the question for the B1G and GT is whether any one of the following happens: either Stanford (at the behest of Notre Dame) must drop a requirement for Cal, UNC must drop a requirement for Duke, or Washington must be able to come without any obligation to Washington State (or Oregon). I actually think that the most likely scenario is that Washington will fail to independently join without baggage, opening the door to GT.
Discussions are moving aggressively now with television contract bidding ramping up, so we will likely see a massive shift over the next several months.
Schools will not want to be left in the abyss of a landscape outside of the B1G or the SEC, though several will be (in large part due to their inability to act swiftly enough before others take their spots). Ultimately though, there seems to be movement among the university and governance leaderships to act independently to take the opportunities they have at hand.
This is what the 24 team B1G will most likely consist of in 2025-2027:
Northwestern
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Ohio State
Purdue
Maryland
Penn State
Rutgers
Indiana
Minnesota
Michigan State
Iowa
Nebraska
Stanford
Duke
Notre Dame
Cal
UVA
UNC
Georgia Tech
Florida State
UCLA
USC
The big wild card right now is whether Washington can move on its own. If so, that most likely impacts Duke’s spot. Ironically that might lead to a SEC invite for UNC, which could open the door again for Duke to the B1G. As hard to imagine as it is, both Duke and UNC might head southward, which could open the door to Washington and Syracuse joining the B1G.
The television contract for this mix of schools, by the way, will likely eclipse $100/year per school. This is especially true if the B1G can add all of the Florida, Georgia and North Carolina markets.
In a 24 team scenario, consider (as the B1G presidents will) the academic profile and potential for research collaboration the B1G might have should it add most of the top 50 ranked schools listed below:
Realistic/Frequently Discussed Contenders:
Stanford 6
Duke 9
Notre Dame 19
Cal 22
UVA 25
UNC 28
Georgia Tech 38
Florida State 55
UMiami 55
Syracuse 59
Washington 59
Oregon 99
Colorado 99
Utah 99
Iowa State 122
Kansas 122
New Members:
UCLA 20
USC 27
Current Conference:
Northwestern 9
Michigan 23
Wisconsin 42
Illinois 47
Ohio State 49
Purdue 49
Maryland 59
Penn State 63
Rutgers 63
Indiana 68
Minnesota 68
Michigan State 83
Iowa 83
Nebraska 136
Unrealistic for the B1G but relevant to P5 realignment generally:
Wake Forest 28
Pitt 59
SMU 68
Virginia Tech 75
Clemson 75
BYU 75
NC State 75
Baylor 78
TCU 83
Arizona 103
Arizona State 117
Oregon State 162
Washington State 179
Oklahoma State 187
Texas Tech 213
Many will be surprised to know that Florida State is so highly regarded academically, There seems to be a sense that Miami has a much elevated academic profile compared to FSU, but in fact US News ranks them the same (both relatively high at 55).
Also, Washington in particular would be a good academic - and television market - fit for the conference. Oregon, on the other hand, is fringe at best in both categories. The B1G presidents let their “exceptional” candidate in when they invited Nebraska. Nebraska was an important lynchpin with a huge following and an exceptional history of football success. They will more likely be more selective and consider the academic and research qualities of candidate institutions while expanding this time around.
Notre Dame will become a member of the B1G and is now leading the discussion of who else to add. It is plausible that Notre Dame makes joining the B1G contingent on the B1G inviting Stanford. And then further plausible that Stanford makes its own joining contingent on the B1G inviting Cal. The B1G should do all of that.
The B1G has made known that it would like to incorporate UNC and UVA. It is also plausible, though less so, that UNC would only join with the contingency that the B1G invites Duke (and, it may be necessary to ensure that the SEC invites NC State). Virginia, likewise, may need assurances politically that Virginia Tech would have a strong home. For their part, the SEC would likely find value from NC State (in part for a great NC market) so long as it can also add the stronger Virginia Tech (traditional football power, good market). The B1G should be fine adding the smaller Duke to acquire the UNC property given its basketball brand, of course factoring in the academic and research power that Duke would add to the B1G.
By the way, as a Northwestern fan, I love the prospect for protected intraconference scheduling among NU, Duke, Stanford and Notre Dame. While some (see: West Virginia in the Big XII) dislike the lack of association among the schools, expansion finally facilitates the potential for relevant long term association for comparatively rival-less Northwestern. You can add Cal, USC, UCLA and UVA into that mix too.
Looking westward, Oregon doesn’t bring enough academic (or market) value to merit an B1G invite. If on the other hand Washington can break away from Washington State (right now, unlikely), it probably will. It doesn’t seem that Washington will be able to move independently though, at least not quickly enough.
Florida State is really intriguing, especially now that we have gone all the way to California. FSU’s academic standing is most certainly not a disqualifier. There have been rumblings that powerful voices (those in South Bend included) really do not like Miami. If you are the B1G, especially with all of the Florida-Northeast-Midwest connections and the importance of the state economically and athletically, you HAVE to be in Florida. Miami was a highly attractive option when Texas turned down the B1G’s invite without the strings attached to its Longhorn Network. It also sure looks like Notre Dame is “writing its terms” to enter the B1G by blocking out Miami, which of course the B1G should want to add.
Would Baylor (78) or TCU (83) bring enough to the conference academically to justify adding the Texas market? Not at all, particularly with the ongoing recruiting success that many B1G schools have in Texas.
Georgia Tech also has always made a lot of sense for the B1G. However, UNC is a bigger win for the B1G, and the question for the B1G and GT is whether any one of the following happens: either Stanford (at the behest of Notre Dame) must drop a requirement for Cal, UNC must drop a requirement for Duke, or Washington must be able to come without any obligation to Washington State (or Oregon). I actually think that the most likely scenario is that Washington will fail to independently join without baggage, opening the door to GT.
Discussions are moving aggressively now with television contract bidding ramping up, so we will likely see a massive shift over the next several months.
Schools will not want to be left in the abyss of a landscape outside of the B1G or the SEC, though several will be (in large part due to their inability to act swiftly enough before others take their spots). Ultimately though, there seems to be movement among the university and governance leaderships to act independently to take the opportunities they have at hand.
This is what the 24 team B1G will most likely consist of in 2025-2027:
Northwestern
Michigan
Wisconsin
Illinois
Ohio State
Purdue
Maryland
Penn State
Rutgers
Indiana
Minnesota
Michigan State
Iowa
Nebraska
Stanford
Duke
Notre Dame
Cal
UVA
UNC
Georgia Tech
Florida State
UCLA
USC
The big wild card right now is whether Washington can move on its own. If so, that most likely impacts Duke’s spot. Ironically that might lead to a SEC invite for UNC, which could open the door again for Duke to the B1G. As hard to imagine as it is, both Duke and UNC might head southward, which could open the door to Washington and Syracuse joining the B1G.
The television contract for this mix of schools, by the way, will likely eclipse $100/year per school. This is especially true if the B1G can add all of the Florida, Georgia and North Carolina markets.