Got a
post from a random college basketball substack guy that I found last season; he interviewed the basketball editor for The Score, who has created a spreadsheet ranking every transfer portal player based on their fit with their new team, instead of just focusing on the stats.
Two quotes from the interview:
WW: What stats do you feel are most useful in helping you evaluate a transfer in general? Beyond that, what stats help you evaluate the transfer's fit within a given system?
MW: First things first is establishing what type of player the transfer is. Reading a KenPom season stat line will typically give it away. What’s his calling card? What does he do especially well, or especially poorly? From there, I kind of see the college game as having three positions - guard, wing, and big. I try to categorize them in one of those three.
I truly do not care about a guard’s rebounding numbers. It means nothing to me. An on-ball guard needs a positive AST/TO ratio. An off-ball guard needs solid shooting efficiency. For wings, are you a high volume scorer, a low usage energy piece, or a 3-and-D guy? Is a big a rim-runner, burly rebounder, or pick-and-pop guy? Those are all things KenPom can tell me. I like to use EvanMiya’s DBPR for defensive stats and Synergy for shooting numbers, which helps with determining rim efficiency and whether volume shooters are taking/making catch-and-shoot jumpers or dribble jumpers.
In terms of player fits in a system, I’m very rarely going to severely dock a transfer based on other guys on the roster (except for two specific examples that you have outlined below). Simply put, you can’t really have too many ball handlers, shooters, or defender on a team. But once you start doubling or tripling up on guys with similar skillsets, or more importantly, guys that have overlapping flaws, then you’re putting yourself at a severe disadvantage. Imagine how good 2023-24 Texas A&M could have been if they plucked one elite shooter, or 2023-24 Florida if they had a guard defender on the roster.
WW: Rapid-fire player question: by EvanMiya, Kadary Richmond and Oumar Ballo are the top two transfers who've committed elsewhere in the portal. Most any media member would agree, and Ballo's actually On3's top transfer in the entire class. Yet you've given them grades of B+ and B, respectively, criticizing the fit for each at their respective new schools. What about these moves causes you concern, and why can this be more insightful than simply saying "X team got the best player available?"
MW: Just full stop, if Richmond goes to UConn and Ballo goes to North Carolina, they’re probably both A’s, at least. [...] For Ballo, you’re adding him next to Indiana’s best returner in Malik Reneau in the most anti-analytics frontcourt imaginable. Both attempted over 100 shots on post ups last year, neither can shoot threes, and neither is an elite rim protector on D. Add in that their new PG Myles Rice also shot sub-30% from deep, and that roster makes zero sense.
Here's his grades on each transfer coming into the conference for next year. Note, I would characterize him as pretty negative on NU from last season, FWIW. His comments on each can be found in the
spreadsheet.
Northwestern
🎉🎉🥳🥳 Jalen Leach - Fairfield:
B+, Leach finally took a leap as a shooter, and combined with his playmaking and aggressive defense, was one of the best players in the MAAC. Big pickup if the shooting holds. NW could have used him this year.
Keenan Fitzmorris - Stony Brook:
C+, Traditional back-to-the-basket big with major mobility issues. NW has succeeded with slow-footed 5 men that have the sheer size to defend the hoop, so all hope is not lost for Fitzmorris. I just don't think his touch or rim protection is as good as it needs to be to thrive here. 🥳🥳🎉🎉
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Illinois
Jake Davis - Mercer:
C+
Tre White - Louisville:
B
Kylan Boswell - Arizona:
A-
Carey Booth - Notre Dame:
B
Ben Humrichous - Evansville:
B+
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Indiana
Myles Rice - Washington State:
B-
Oumar Ballo - Arizona,
B
Kanaan Carlyle - Stanford:
A-
Luke Goode - Illinois:
B+
Langdon Hatton - Bellarmine:
C+
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Iowa
Drew Thelwell - Morehead State:
C+
Seydou Traore - Manhattan:
B-
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Maryland
Rodney Rice - Virginia Tech:
C+
Ja'Kobi Gillespie - Belmont:
B
Selton Miguel - South Florida:
C
Tafara Gapare - Georgia Tech:
C-
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Michigan State
Frankie Fidler - Omaha:
B-
Szymon Zapala - Longwood:
B
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Michigan
Rubin Jones - North Texas:
A-
Danny Wolf - Yale:
C
Tre Donaldson - Auburn:
B+
Roddy Gayle Jr. - Ohio State:
B
Sam Walters - Alabama:
B
Vladimir Goldin - Florida Atlantic:
B-
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Minnesota
Frank Mitchell - Canisius:
C-
Brennan Rigsby - Oregon:
C
Femi Odukale - New Mexico State:
C+
Caleb Williams - D3 Macalester:
N/A
Trey Edmonds - UTSA:
D-
Lu'Cye Patterson - Charlotte:
B
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Nebraska
Andrew Morgan - North Dakota State:
D
Rollie Worster - Utah:
B+
Gavin Griffiths - Rutgers:
B
Connor Essegian - Wisconsin:
B
Braxton Meah - Washington:
C-
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Ohio State
Meechie Johnson - South Carolina:
B
Aaron Bradshaw - Kentucky:
B+
Micah Parrish - San Diego State:
C+
Sean Stewart - Duke:
B+
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Penn State
Kachi Nzeh - Xavier:
B-
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Northern Illinois:
C+
Eli Rice - Nebraska:
B+
Freddie Dilione V - Tennessee:
A-
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Purdue
Nada
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Rutgers
Tyson Acuff - Eastern Michigan:
D
Zach Martini - Princeton:
C+
Jordan Derkack - Merrimack:
C
PJ Hayes - San Diego:
B
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Wisconsin
Camren Hunter - Central Arkansas:
B-
Xavier Amos - Northern Illinois:
C+
John Tonje - Missouri:
B