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GatoLouco said:
Colemans Hawkins joined the portal

Elijah Hawkins joined Texas Tech

Busy days for guys called Hawkins

Iowa and Purdue still to add a single transfer
Click to expand...
These Purdue recruits are going to be sorry when they realize they missed out on playing with the best PG in the country.
 
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GatoLouco said:
Updated 5/10
Click to expand...
Michigan will certainly contend for Big Ten title....

saw an article about the overhaul..

Dusty May didn’t want to waste time nor “emotional energy” pursuing players that weren’t going to get admitted to Michigan. “We just tried to streamline it by doing our homework early, getting the right information, and attacking those guys,” he said. “There were a few guys that we had to stay away from. Maybe we could have gotten them in. We didn’t go down that road because we had to be so efficient with our time. Out of all the guys we signed, it was relatively simple after we got their initial transcripts.”

6 transfer visits, 6 commits. 2 freshman visits, 2 commits.

Will Tschetter and one of Juwan Howard's sons are back from last year's team.
 
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AJ Hoggard commits to Vanderbilt.
Probably not a great move as a basketball player.
Definitely a good move for academic credentials.
And probably NIL cash.

Indiana added Langdon Hatton, a 6'10" 240 lbs junior from Bellarmine who scored 10 points per game, with 7 rebounds in about 27 minutes. Hoosiers clearly spending some cash - this guy seems like decent depth.
 
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Got a post from a random college basketball substack guy that I found last season; he interviewed the basketball editor for The Score, who has created a spreadsheet ranking every transfer portal player based on their fit with their new team, instead of just focusing on the stats.

Two quotes from the interview:

WW: What stats do you feel are most useful in helping you evaluate a transfer in general? Beyond that, what stats help you evaluate the transfer's fit within a given system?​
​
MW: First things first is establishing what type of player the transfer is. Reading a KenPom season stat line will typically give it away. What’s his calling card? What does he do especially well, or especially poorly? From there, I kind of see the college game as having three positions - guard, wing, and big. I try to categorize them in one of those three.​
​
I truly do not care about a guard’s rebounding numbers. It means nothing to me. An on-ball guard needs a positive AST/TO ratio. An off-ball guard needs solid shooting efficiency. For wings, are you a high volume scorer, a low usage energy piece, or a 3-and-D guy? Is a big a rim-runner, burly rebounder, or pick-and-pop guy? Those are all things KenPom can tell me. I like to use EvanMiya’s DBPR for defensive stats and Synergy for shooting numbers, which helps with determining rim efficiency and whether volume shooters are taking/making catch-and-shoot jumpers or dribble jumpers.​
​
In terms of player fits in a system, I’m very rarely going to severely dock a transfer based on other guys on the roster (except for two specific examples that you have outlined below). Simply put, you can’t really have too many ball handlers, shooters, or defender on a team. But once you start doubling or tripling up on guys with similar skillsets, or more importantly, guys that have overlapping flaws, then you’re putting yourself at a severe disadvantage. Imagine how good 2023-24 Texas A&M could have been if they plucked one elite shooter, or 2023-24 Florida if they had a guard defender on the roster.​
​
WW: Rapid-fire player question: by EvanMiya, Kadary Richmond and Oumar Ballo are the top two transfers who've committed elsewhere in the portal. Most any media member would agree, and Ballo's actually On3's top transfer in the entire class. Yet you've given them grades of B+ and B, respectively, criticizing the fit for each at their respective new schools. What about these moves causes you concern, and why can this be more insightful than simply saying "X team got the best player available?"​
​
MW: Just full stop, if Richmond goes to UConn and Ballo goes to North Carolina, they’re probably both A’s, at least. [...] For Ballo, you’re adding him next to Indiana’s best returner in Malik Reneau in the most anti-analytics frontcourt imaginable. Both attempted over 100 shots on post ups last year, neither can shoot threes, and neither is an elite rim protector on D. Add in that their new PG Myles Rice also shot sub-30% from deep, and that roster makes zero sense.​
​
Here's his grades on each transfer coming into the conference for next year. Note, I would characterize him as pretty negative on NU from last season, FWIW. His comments on each can be found in the spreadsheet.

Northwestern

🎉🎉🥳🥳 Jalen Leach - Fairfield: B+, Leach finally took a leap as a shooter, and combined with his playmaking and aggressive defense, was one of the best players in the MAAC. Big pickup if the shooting holds. NW could have used him this year.
Keenan Fitzmorris - Stony Brook: C+, Traditional back-to-the-basket big with major mobility issues. NW has succeeded with slow-footed 5 men that have the sheer size to defend the hoop, so all hope is not lost for Fitzmorris. I just don't think his touch or rim protection is as good as it needs to be to thrive here. 🥳🥳🎉🎉
------------------------------------------------------------------
Illinois

Jake Davis - Mercer: C+
Tre White - Louisville: B
Kylan Boswell - Arizona: A-
Carey Booth - Notre Dame: B
Ben Humrichous - Evansville: B+
------------------------------------------------------------------
Indiana

Myles Rice - Washington State: B-
Oumar Ballo - Arizona, B
Kanaan Carlyle - Stanford: A-
Luke Goode - Illinois: B+
Langdon Hatton - Bellarmine: C+
------------------------------------------------------------------
Iowa

Drew Thelwell - Morehead State: C+
Seydou Traore - Manhattan: B-
------------------------------------------------------------------
Maryland

Rodney Rice - Virginia Tech: C+
Ja'Kobi Gillespie - Belmont: B
Selton Miguel - South Florida: C
Tafara Gapare - Georgia Tech: C-
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan State

Frankie Fidler - Omaha: B-
Szymon Zapala - Longwood: B
------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan

Rubin Jones - North Texas: A-
Danny Wolf - Yale: C
Tre Donaldson - Auburn: B+
Roddy Gayle Jr. - Ohio State: B
Sam Walters - Alabama: B
Vladimir Goldin - Florida Atlantic: B-
------------------------------------------------------------------
Minnesota

Frank Mitchell - Canisius: C-
Brennan Rigsby - Oregon: C
Femi Odukale - New Mexico State: C+
Caleb Williams - D3 Macalester: N/A
Trey Edmonds - UTSA: D-
Lu'Cye Patterson - Charlotte: B
------------------------------------------------------------------
Nebraska

Andrew Morgan - North Dakota State: D
Rollie Worster - Utah: B+
Gavin Griffiths - Rutgers: B
Connor Essegian - Wisconsin: B
Braxton Meah - Washington: C-
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio State

Meechie Johnson - South Carolina: B
Aaron Bradshaw - Kentucky: B+
Micah Parrish - San Diego State: C+
Sean Stewart - Duke: B+
------------------------------------------------------------------
Penn State

Kachi Nzeh - Xavier: B-
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Northern Illinois: C+
Eli Rice - Nebraska: B+
Freddie Dilione V - Tennessee: A-
------------------------------------------------------------------
Purdue

Nada
------------------------------------------------------------------
Rutgers

Tyson Acuff - Eastern Michigan: D
Zach Martini - Princeton: C+
Jordan Derkack - Merrimack: C
PJ Hayes - San Diego: B
------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin

Camren Hunter - Central Arkansas: B-
Xavier Amos - Northern Illinois: C+
John Tonje - Missouri: B
 
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And, also FWIW, for our new conference brethren:

Oregon
(-)
Brennan Rigsby - Minnesota
Kario Oquendo - SMU

(+)
Brandon Angel - Stanford: B+
Ra'Heim Moss - Toledo: B+
TJ Bamba - Villanova: B+

UCLA
(-)
Will McClendon - San Jose St.
Logan Cremonesi
Jan Vide - Loyola Marymount
Ilane Fibleuil
Berke Büyüktuncel

(+)
Skyy Clark - Louisville: B+
Kobe Johnson - USC: A-
Eric Dailey Jr. - Oklahoma St.: A
Tyler Bilodeau - Oregon St.: B
William Kyle III - So. Dakota St.: B-
Dominick Harris - Loyola Marymount: B

USC
(-)
Zach Brooker
Kobe Johnson - UCLA
Oziyah Sellers - Stanford
Kijani Wright - Vanderbilt
Vincent Iwuchukwu - St. John's
Bronny James - NBA Draft
Brandon Gardner - Arizona State
Arrinten Page - Cincinnati

(+)
Joshua Cohen - Massachusetts: D+
Clark Slajchert - Penn: C-
Bryce Pope - UC San Diego: D+
Matt Knowling - Yale: C
Saint Thomas - Northern Colorado: B
Chibuzo Agbo - Boise St: B+
Rashaun Agee - Bowling Green: C-
Terrance Williams II - Michigan: B-
Desmond Claude - Xavier: A-
Kevin Patton Jr. - San Diego: A-

Washington
(-)
Samuel Ariyibi
Braxton Meah - Nebraska
Koren Johnson - Louisville
Nate Calmese - Washington St.
Wesley Yates III

(+)
Mekhi Mason - Rice: C+
DJ Davis - Butler: B
KC Ibekwe - Oregon St.: C
Chris Conway - Oakland: C
Tyler Harris - Portland: B-
Luis Kortright - Rhode Island: C+
Great Osobor - Utah St.: A-
Tyree Ihenacho - North Dakota: C+
 
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Hard to figure Omar Ballo as a B and Fitzmorris as a C+, despite the explanation of "roster fit" for Ballo.
On paper they're probably A+ and C.
If Chris Collins had the choice, he'd take Ballo 100 times out of 100 and we'd be a lot better off.

I'd guess Indiana is ecstatic to have Ballo and Reneau as a 1-2 punch and protection against foul problems (or injuries) in the post. Woodson will probably play them together at times. Your guy seems really confident that won't work.
 
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
Hard to figure Omar Ballo as a B and Fitzmorris as a C+, despite the explanation of "roster fit" for Ballo.
On paper they're probably A+ and C.
If Chris Collins had the choice, he'd take Ballo 100 times out of 100 and we'd be a lot better off.

I'd guess Indiana is ecstatic to have Ballo and Reneau as a 1-2 punch and protection against foul problems (or injuries) in the post. Woodson will probably play them together at times. Your guy seems really confident that won't work.
Click to expand...
Again, he's just a random guy whose work I found, but his argument seems to be that you need to be able to shoot 3's to be successful in today's game and Ballo/Reneau don't provide that, plus their new PG also can't shoot 3's, so this roster as constructed is unlikely to work well.
 
I'm fascinated by his logic, even if I'm not sure it's right. He's basically saying that the new guy at IU may be really good, but he's not necessarily what they need.

If I recall, Indiana struggled to hit threes last year, and didn't they even have one Big Ten game where they didn't make a single one? Sounds like it's just who they want to be now. In my formative years, Indiana was the school of Steve Alford, so to think of them as big men and point guards who can't shoot is blowing my mind.
 
SmellyCat said:
I'm fascinated by his logic, even if I'm not sure it's right. He's basically saying that the new guy at IU may be really good, but he's not necessarily what they need.

If I recall, Indiana struggled to hit threes last year, and didn't they even have one Big Ten game where they didn't make a single one? Sounds like it's just who they want to be now. In my formative years, Indiana was the school of Steve Alford, so to think of them as big men and point guards who can't shoot is blowing my mind.
Click to expand...
Indiana convinced Luke Goode to transfer there from Illinois.
I'm assuming he is the solution to the 3 point shooting.
On paper, he isn't as good a player as Oumar Ballo, but the guy rates Goode as a B+, while Ballo is a B.

Personally, I think you need two outside shooters in the 40% range to be happy.
 
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
Indiana convinced Luke Goode to transfer there from Illinois.
I'm assuming he is the solution to the 3 point shooting.
On paper, he isn't as good a player as Oumar Ballo, but the guy rates Goode as a B+, while Ballo is a B.

Personally, I think you need two outside shooters in the 40% range to be happy.
Click to expand...
They needed to replace Miller Kopp and got a similar player in Goode. :D
 
jensberg said:
He gave Danny wolf a C (??) and we were excited about him
Click to expand...

Michigan got Goldin from FAU. Thats an A+.
They got 6'10" Sam Walters from Alabama. Thats a B+.

Guy must be thinking Wolf won't play too much to give him a C.
But still, as backup centers go, thats a great pickup.

Unfortunately, I'd take him in a heartbeat over our guy Fitzmorris.
 
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
Indiana convinced Luke Goode to transfer there from Illinois.
I'm assuming he is the solution to the 3 point shooting.
On paper, he isn't as good a player as Oumar Ballo, but the guy rates Goode as a B+, while Ballo is a B.

Personally, I think you need two outside shooters in the 40% range to be happy.
Click to expand...
Ballo: "Ballo is a great basketball player. But what on earth is this fit? Reneau and Ballo are both heavy post up guys, and you can't post them both up! Ware was at least different with his above the rim game and shooting. Ballo can't extend his range and isn't the lob threat Ware was for big-to-big passes. Just because Reneau can pass, doesn't mean the spacing here will work for him to get Ballo clean looks. Defensively is worse too because Ballo is less rangy than Ware. Just makes no sense."

Goode: "Good choice for some actual shooting on the roster. 39% on 219 attempts at 6-foot-7 is pretty much as good as it gets. But the defense is poor, which made minutes hard to come by. Will that really change here? And traditionally, being the only pure shooter on a roster makes it really hard to get clean looks off. Wouldn't surprise me if his number is closer to 35% from 3 next year."
jensberg said:
He gave Danny wolf a C (??) and we were excited about him
Click to expand...
Wolf: "Wolf was awful offensively against Tier A comp last year. Wasn't all that efficient overall - was Yale's worst starter on O per EM. Defensively, his size allows him to protect the rim. But he's not fast defending in space. I don't think he's the next Goldin. And I don't think Goldin would be spectacular in the B10 anyways."
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
Michigan got Goldin from FAU. Thats an A+.
They got 6'10" Sam Walters from Alabama. Thats a B+.

Guy must be thinking Wolf won't play too much to give him a C.
But still, as backup centers go, thats a great pickup.

Unfortunately, I'd take him in a heartbeat over our guy Fitzmorris.
Click to expand...
Goldin: "I hate the fit with Wolf because neither can play the four and neither are great shooters. Often his team's best games were when he deferred. Bad passer and limited to the post only. That will be a tougher sell in the P5. Not a defender in space. He'll be effective numbers wise. And obviously in a vacuum he's a good player."

Walters: "Shooter with elite size. That's about all. May will put him in great spots offensively and he'll be a major weapon. But he's definitely a defensive liability."
 
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Reading these comments, Indiana's moves are like owning a fantasy football team and taking a second quarterback when you have so many other needs just because that second QB is a name guy. Sure, "take a great player and figure out the rest later" isn't a terrible strategy, but people who automatically put Indiana in the top 20 because of what looks like a net gain may be in for a rude awakening.

As for Goldin, I remember being really worried about him before the FAU game, and although he was hard to stop when he got in close, he also disappeared for long stretches. Will be interesting to see how he plays in the Big 10 night in and night out.
 
SmellyCat said:
Reading these comments, Indiana's moves are like owning a fantasy football team and taking a second quarterback when you have so many other needs just because that second QB is a name guy. Sure, "take a great player and figure out the rest later" isn't a terrible strategy, but people who automatically put Indiana in the top 20 because of what looks like a net gain may be in for a rude awakening.

As for Goldin, I remember being really worried about him before the FAU game, and although he was hard to stop when he got in close, he also disappeared for long stretches. Will be interesting to see how he plays in the Big 10 night in and night out.
Click to expand...
Especially if Big Matt comes back 100% recovered from his injury, he will neutralize Goldin.
 
CappyNU said:
Ballo: "Ballo is a great basketball player. But what on earth is this fit? Reneau and Ballo are both heavy post up guys, and you can't post them both up! Ware was at least different with his above the rim game and shooting. Ballo can't extend his range and isn't the lob threat Ware was for big-to-big passes. Just because Reneau can pass, doesn't mean the spacing here will work for him to get Ballo clean looks. Defensively is worse too because Ballo is less rangy than Ware. Just makes no sense."

Goode: "Good choice for some actual shooting on the roster. 39% on 219 attempts at 6-foot-7 is pretty much as good as it gets. But the defense is poor, which made minutes hard to come by. Will that really change here? And traditionally, being the only pure shooter on a roster makes it really hard to get clean looks off. Wouldn't surprise me if his number is closer to 35% from 3 next year."

Wolf: "Wolf was awful offensively against Tier A comp last year. Wasn't all that efficient overall - was Yale's worst starter on O per EM. Defensively, his size allows him to protect the rim. But he's not fast defending in space. I don't think he's the next Goldin. And I don't think Goldin would be spectacular in the B10 anyways."

Goldin: "I hate the fit with Wolf because neither can play the four and neither are great shooters. Often his team's best games were when he deferred. Bad passer and limited to the post only. That will be a tougher sell in the P5. Not a defender in space. He'll be effective numbers wise. And obviously in a vacuum he's a good player."

Walters: "Shooter with elite size. That's about all. May will put him in great spots offensively and he'll be a major weapon. But he's definitely a defensive liability."
Click to expand...
Seems to me like this analyst is downgrading both Goldin and Wolf for Michigan because

a) they play the same position
and
b) neither can defend "in space" (the perimeter)

Since the guy isn't here to defend his odd opinion, there's no point in going further. Wolf has two years left. I wish Collins had gotten him.
 
$2M for Hawkins ... Wow! He wasn't even the 2nd best scorer on the team.

OTOH, I have no clue what the market is.

Do you really pay the third leading scorer on a P5 team the same amount an NBA team would pay a low 1st round draft pick?

I'm a big fan of players getting what they can. However, the other side of this is that the schools better get this under control quickly. Next year, every portal player with similar stats is going to be pointing to the Hawkins money.

You'd hope these schools are smart enough to learn from the history of free agency in MLB and NBA.
 
Until a way is found to regulate NIL and compensation, won’t most decent players enter the portal every year and go to the highest bidder in a state of permanent free agency? If Hawkins is making $2 million, then all-conference players have zero reason to not enter the portal and maximize their earnings.
 
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clarificationcat said:
OK. Lots of really talented players share those values. That’s why the really good teams tend to always be good and we are not. We got lucky with Martinelli and just had one of those underrated guys leave after his freshman year. If we are not going to go after talented players with connections to the school, we are going to struggle to be competitive on a consistent basis. Having one of the 5 best point guards in the country raised everybody’s level of play.

When Gonzaga became an established program, they didn’t continue to pursue the scrappy kids. They recruited better and better players.
Click to expand...
Who were still scrappy?
 
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clarificationcat said:
From what I have been reading today, looks like he would likely get drafted in the second round if he goes that route. Looks like I am wrong again.
Click to expand...
For the most part, probably better to go back to school than getting drafted in second round.
 
Sec.112 said:
$2M for Hawkins ... Wow! He wasn't even the 2nd best scorer on the team.

OTOH, I have no clue what the market is.

Do you really pay the third leading scorer on a P5 team the same amount an NBA team would pay a low 1st round draft pick?

I'm a big fan of players getting what they can. However, the other side of this is that the schools better get this under control quickly. Next year, every portal player with similar stats is going to be pointing to the Hawkins money.

You'd hope these schools are smart enough to learn from the history of free agency in MLB and NBA.
Click to expand...
Hawkins was pretty unique player and more versitile than you give him credit for
 
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
Hard to figure Omar Ballo as a B and Fitzmorris as a C+, despite the explanation of "roster fit" for Ballo.
On paper they're probably A+ and C.
If Chris Collins had the choice, he'd take Ballo 100 times out of 100 and we'd be a lot better off.

I'd guess Indiana is ecstatic to have Ballo and Reneau as a 1-2 punch and protection against foul problems (or injuries) in the post. Woodson will probably play them together at times. Your guy seems really confident that won't work.
Click to expand...
But that is because for us, Ballo is what we needed,. For Indiana he is just a duplicate of what they already had
 
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