Big Ten Tourney scenarios - if we don’t beat Maryland in CP

[Baz=Heisman]

I believe we are in regardless of Saturday’s game IF:

-USC loses 1 of their final 2 (vs. Washington, at UCLA)
OR
-Iowa loses 1 of the final 2 (vs. MSU, at Nebby)
OR
-Minnesota loses both final 2 (vs Wisky, at Rutgers)

Anything I miss? We don’t have the tiebreaker with Rutgers and Nebraska as you all know.

 

[Secho99]

I believe we are in regardless of Saturday’s game IF:

-USC loses 1 of their final 2 (vs. Washington, at UCLA)
OR
-Iowa loses 1 of the final 2 (vs. MSU, at Nebby)
OR
-Minnesota loses both final 2 (vs Wisky, at Rutgers)

Anything I miss? We don’t have the tiebreaker with Rutgers and Nebraska as you all know.

We do pretty well in most tiebreakers against other 7-win teams, but not all of them.

Here's a few scenarios:

If we're tied at 7-13 with Minnesota, USC and Iowa we finish 13th
If we're tied at 7-13 with Minnesota, USC, Iowa and Nebraska, we're still 13th
If we're tied at 7-13 with Rutgers, Iowa, USC and Nebraska, we're 15th
If Iowa gets to 8-12 and we're tied at 7-13 with Rutgers, USC and Nebraska we're 16th.

There's a lot of scenarios but only a select few that leave us out.

 

[Catreporter]

We need MSU to clinch the Big Ten regular season title with a win at Iowa tomorrow, but even then, it ain't quite over.

 

[CappyNU]

There are 32 scenarios remaining from the 5 relevant games that impact our chances.

Iowa and Nebraska each have 12 scenarios where they miss out, we have 5 scenarios where we miss out, Rutgers have 2 and USC have 1. Minnesota has clinched a spot even if they lose to Rutgers.

Looking at the kenpom percentages, Iowa misses out 67.2% of the time, Nebraska misses out 23.4% of the time, we have a 4.6% chance of missing, USC has a 3.7% chance and Rutgers has a 1.1% chance.

If MSU wins tonight, our chance of missing drops to 1.5% and would require the exact scenario of USC, Maryland, Iowa and Minnesota winning this weekend for us to miss out.

If Iowa wins, our chance goes up to 14.1%, Iowa's chance drops to 48.6%, Nebraska's chance drops to 16.9%, USC goes up to 15.0% and Rutgers goes up to 4.4%.