I purposely did not want to even think of the upcoming B1G championship game prior to yesterday’s both for superstitious and emotional reasons. If I had started to think about OSU and then had the Cats lose to the formerly Fightin’ Lovie’s, my despair would have swamped the holidays, and I fear I would have ended up on trial as a jinx in a Dr. Pepper commercial.
Yesterday’s win was encouraging relative to next Saturday’s game. Before the game yesterday, the disappearance of a running game had reduced my hope of an upset to infinitesimal. After yesterday’s game, I think the chance of the Cat’s winning improved to slight, and of competing, the improvement is to good.
In light of the Illinois’ defense short handed presence, I don’t think the performance of Porter and Hull represent a new emergence of thunder and lightning, but what I saw of Porter particularly made me think the Cats’ chances took a big upward boost.
OSU has a great offense. The fewest points they have put up this year is 38, while the Cats have scored more than 38 only once. They are scoring on more than half of their possessions, and an NU team that cannot reduce the number of chances they get to score has almost no possibility to spring an upset at all. Two things about Porter yesterday worked to improve the chances for the Cats mounting drives and reducing the number of possessions OSU gets. The first is that he seems strong enough to get a yard or two after first contact. And the second is that he seemed a step quicker than Bowser to get to the point of attack. The net result of this is that attempts where the Cats have been getting no gain or a yard are like left to get two to three. The quicker step also allowed the Cats to make the point of attack the tackle/tight end gap, where the Cats are a little stronger than straight up the middle runs. With Raine healthy, Ramsey has been very good at converting third and 3 to 5, and positive runs on 1st and second set the table for 3rd and less than 5. If the expected betting line was OSU -20 before the Illinois game, that is, an expected score of about 40-20, an improvement in the Cats ability to run the ball both increases the Cats’ chances to score and reduces OSU possessions, and hence probable scoring. Let’s say for argument’s sake that it reduces the 20 point spread by giving the Cats a FG more and OSU a FG less, or sets the difference to 14 or 15.
This is still a very large gap to overcome, and I expect the Cats to lose. Per my quick perusal of betting sites, a 14 point underdog wins about 1 in 7 times, which seems plausible to me. It would also mean that the Cats would have about a 50/50 shot at holding the final to 2 scores or less. I do think there are two strong central points: OSU has scored at least 38 points in every game it has played, and so even if the Cats’ defense is the best they have faced, they are likely to score north of 5 TDS, and on the other hand, the Cats and Ramsey have been able to grind out at least 3 long drives in every game they have played, and it is unlikely that a good but not perfect OSU defense will hold NU under 20 if NU has a modicum of a run game.
Assuming the 14 point expected differential ( a pretty big assumption), I do think there are plausible ways for the Cats to make up two touchdowns. The obvious is that Fields is capable of trying to force the ball, and the Cats’ back seven have been very good at disguising coverage, reducing throwing windows, and breaking on the ball. Mistakes on the order of the Indiana game, while unlikely, are not impossible. The second thing that could give the Cats an “extra” score and close the gap is one or two successful gimmick plays. OSU has a physically talented, aggressive, but relatively inexperienced defense. Bajakian has shown a few well designed gimmick plays that have found success, most notably passes by Riley Lees off the end around (2-2). I will be shocked if that play is not tried. I also really believe that part of using the wildcat with Ramsey split on Saturday was a setup to have Porter pass backward to Ramsey on a third and short sometime against OSU, giving Ramsey the option to throw deep or try to run if the safety doesn’t bite.
The long and short of it all is that NU is a good enough team to give OSU a game, that OSU is capable of making some mistakes, and that the Cats have little to lose and can take some chances. All of that makes an upset, though unlikely, not implausible.
Here’s hoping the Cats play to the best of their ability, and that the ball bounces their way.
Yesterday’s win was encouraging relative to next Saturday’s game. Before the game yesterday, the disappearance of a running game had reduced my hope of an upset to infinitesimal. After yesterday’s game, I think the chance of the Cat’s winning improved to slight, and of competing, the improvement is to good.
In light of the Illinois’ defense short handed presence, I don’t think the performance of Porter and Hull represent a new emergence of thunder and lightning, but what I saw of Porter particularly made me think the Cats’ chances took a big upward boost.
OSU has a great offense. The fewest points they have put up this year is 38, while the Cats have scored more than 38 only once. They are scoring on more than half of their possessions, and an NU team that cannot reduce the number of chances they get to score has almost no possibility to spring an upset at all. Two things about Porter yesterday worked to improve the chances for the Cats mounting drives and reducing the number of possessions OSU gets. The first is that he seems strong enough to get a yard or two after first contact. And the second is that he seemed a step quicker than Bowser to get to the point of attack. The net result of this is that attempts where the Cats have been getting no gain or a yard are like left to get two to three. The quicker step also allowed the Cats to make the point of attack the tackle/tight end gap, where the Cats are a little stronger than straight up the middle runs. With Raine healthy, Ramsey has been very good at converting third and 3 to 5, and positive runs on 1st and second set the table for 3rd and less than 5. If the expected betting line was OSU -20 before the Illinois game, that is, an expected score of about 40-20, an improvement in the Cats ability to run the ball both increases the Cats’ chances to score and reduces OSU possessions, and hence probable scoring. Let’s say for argument’s sake that it reduces the 20 point spread by giving the Cats a FG more and OSU a FG less, or sets the difference to 14 or 15.
This is still a very large gap to overcome, and I expect the Cats to lose. Per my quick perusal of betting sites, a 14 point underdog wins about 1 in 7 times, which seems plausible to me. It would also mean that the Cats would have about a 50/50 shot at holding the final to 2 scores or less. I do think there are two strong central points: OSU has scored at least 38 points in every game it has played, and so even if the Cats’ defense is the best they have faced, they are likely to score north of 5 TDS, and on the other hand, the Cats and Ramsey have been able to grind out at least 3 long drives in every game they have played, and it is unlikely that a good but not perfect OSU defense will hold NU under 20 if NU has a modicum of a run game.
Assuming the 14 point expected differential ( a pretty big assumption), I do think there are plausible ways for the Cats to make up two touchdowns. The obvious is that Fields is capable of trying to force the ball, and the Cats’ back seven have been very good at disguising coverage, reducing throwing windows, and breaking on the ball. Mistakes on the order of the Indiana game, while unlikely, are not impossible. The second thing that could give the Cats an “extra” score and close the gap is one or two successful gimmick plays. OSU has a physically talented, aggressive, but relatively inexperienced defense. Bajakian has shown a few well designed gimmick plays that have found success, most notably passes by Riley Lees off the end around (2-2). I will be shocked if that play is not tried. I also really believe that part of using the wildcat with Ramsey split on Saturday was a setup to have Porter pass backward to Ramsey on a third and short sometime against OSU, giving Ramsey the option to throw deep or try to run if the safety doesn’t bite.
The long and short of it all is that NU is a good enough team to give OSU a game, that OSU is capable of making some mistakes, and that the Cats have little to lose and can take some chances. All of that makes an upset, though unlikely, not implausible.
Here’s hoping the Cats play to the best of their ability, and that the ball bounces their way.
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