I'm really looking forward to this season. Regardless of the record, I believe it will be exciting and hard fought. Decent (6-6) to very good. I don't see wins against Washington, OSU or Michigan. Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa, Duke, Purdue, and Indiana, who knows. Eastern Illinois, Miami, Illinois are in my win column.
Even with all the unknowns,
- Thread starter stpaulcat
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We have known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. But I think we have more knowns than unknowns.
Yeah, deep (state) reference there. Wasn't expecting to see that today on this board.
Read the Miami Hydroxide preview on inside N U. For a glass of cold water to the face.
We know that we will be playing home games in a new venue which will have conditions that are unknown (i.e. crowd noise, night lighting, visiting team bus parking).
We have no idea about the OL. We think we might know who the QB is but have no idea how he will play. Our running game is a huge question mark as is the passing game. Will there be a letdown after last year? How will things be on the lakefront? I could go on and on as far as unknowns. Knowns are a lot fewer
QB for starters, or starting QB
QB for 1st game, 2 half after first half QB is a disaster
Thus far it is almost all unknown. We have some ideas on D but pretty much everything about the O at this point is unknown
A known is that Zach Lujan's offense at SDSU helped win a Division 1 FCS national championship.
We have not seen him call a play unless you consider the last practice exhibition when we could not ever really field an OL. We have no idea whether he as the tools here or how it will work on this stage, 60% of the plays were running plays and he had a QB that he had worked with for years. We have no idea what we have for OL, and for us the QB is again an unknown and most of our running game is up in the air as well. We have yet to see him call an O. Will his running game wrinkles work at this level? So at this point we have to consider him and his O as an unknown, We have high hopes that it will be effective but at this point to us, his O is a total unknown
If we are getting into the prediction game, it's a ways off, but I think 6-6 would be my central case outcome as well. With 5 wins being slightly more likely than 7. Hoping for the over though!
I will say on a very un-scientific basis (it would be pretty easy to just assign a probability to each game and then run the numbers on distribution of outcomes, but screw it I'll just shoot from the hip instead):
4 or fewer wins 22.5%
5 wins 20%
6 wins 25%
7 wins 15%
8+ wins 17.5%
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He has been coaching at a lower (but not lesser) level of competition, and while it may take a while to get the players needed at the B!g level, I'd bet he gets there.
We have a pretty unforgiving schedule, having to play 3 of the top team in the conference, And Wrigley has not been particularly friendly to us. While we supposedly have four home conference games, reality is we have 7 conference games on the road and only 2 at home. It will be interesting
Since Coach Braun was made HC, things have been getting better. I won't miss a game.
Worrying about Coach Lujan's performance is like worrying your Ferrari won't start.
Worrying about Coach Lujan's performance is like worrying your Ferrari won't start.
With basically 7 conference road games, and the lineup we face, I have a hard time getting past 4-5 wins. Hope the heck I am wrong
Don't forget Washington. Not saying we would be getting blown out as as you say D will keep us in games but on O our OL is still suspect, we are going to be starting a new QB, whoever it is. I mean basically everything is new.
And we are basically playing 7 games on the road (if you figure Wrigley games) . Last year of our 5 loses, 4 were away from home (including Wrigley. We were 5-1 at home and 2 -3 on the road, and 2-4 if you include Wrigley game as an away game
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You forgot the away game in Las Vegas, so if you count Iowa as a neutral site game, we were 5-1 home, 2-3 away, 1-1 neutral. If we go 4-1 home, 2-3 away, and 1-1 neutral this year (matching our record from this year before the bowl game), I think we would say that would be successful. Looking at our schedule, I can see that happening (assuming Lujan offense gels). There is nothing about Wrigley that makes it a home game for the other team. Iowa fans would have outnumbered our fans at our stadium, so it is not fan numbers. Bryant was injured and the game was close. This year it would be quite an upset to beat Ohio State on any field. But we definitely have a shot with Illinois. I guess I am one who doesn’t believe in curses.
Do you really feel that Wrigley was a neutral site last year? Because I sure don't when it was at least 3 or 4 to one IA. IA travels well to NU but still it is generally closer to 2 to one. Much closer to a home game for IA than a neutral site.
Bowl games tend to be separate as teams generally have about 1 month and 15 extra practices to get ready for that single game. They are also at the site for about a week rather than day or two.
And the reason I put this out is in how this year will go and what affect it can have on our record. This year dOSU will definitely be more like an away game, not that it probably matters. IL game might be more like neutral site but even that is potentially a stretch but that still makes it more difficult for a game that is potentially winnable. Just harder to win on the road (or neutral site if you want to stretch it). Makes it harder to get past 4 to 5 wins. Hopefully I am wrong
Iowa was a better team than us and we lost by a field goal in the last minute when we had a back-up QB as our starter. I have serious doubt that playing in Evanston would have made a difference.and given the apathy in the fan base last year, I could see the same Iowa crowd in our stadium. As far as 4/5 wins, let’s break that down.
Games that would be an incredible upset if we win: OSU, Michigan, Washington
Games that would be a stretch to win: Iowa, Duke
Teams we beat last year: Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Illinois
Teams we should beat: Eastern Illinois
Toss-up but we should be favorites: Indiana, Miami OH
You can look at our schedule with pessimism and say we will take a step back and everyone took a step forward. But who says Lester will do better with Iowa’s offense? Who knows how Duke and Indiana will respond on road games to our temporary stadium? Who thinks Purdue and Illinois made great strides since last year? Who thinks we have no chance to beat Miami and Indiana? This season may be a disaster but it also has potential to be a good one. We just don't know.
You have to remember that last year MD, PU were home games while this year they will be on the road,. And we basically need 2-3 of your (we beat them last year games to have a chance to get to 7 wins
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