+/- for the Chagrin in Champaign

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	ILL Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Beran	16	29	22	+7	+0.2	+7.2
Nicholson	25.5	38	34	+4	+3.0	+7.0
Buie	35	56	59	-3	+7.0	+4.0
Barnhizer	32	49	56	-7	+3.4	-3.6
Verhoeven	14.5	24	32	-8	+2.6	-5.4
Martinelli	3	0	8	-8	-0.4	-8.4
Audige	38	60	60	+0	-8.6	-8.6
Berry	36	54	59	-5	-7.2	-12.2

Interesting numbers. Obviously Boo Buie led the team in this one - his play was outstanding. Chase Audige and Ty Berry had shooting nights that pulled hard in the opposite direction.
I was very surprised to see Robbie Beran emerge in a positive light. The team played well when he was on the court regardless of his scoring contributions.

It just wasn't a good night for Coach Collins. He's been much better with game management this year than in the previous two, but this was a real headscratcher.
Most prominent - in the last 10 minutes of the game, when Tydus Verhoeven was playing center, Illinois outscored NU 17-0. When Nicholson was in there, we got outscored 10-8.

The weirdness started early. Subbing two starters out at the first tv timeout after we'd grabbed an 11-4 lead was, lets say, disappointing. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But we went one step too far when we subbed in Nick Martinelli for Boo Buie a minute later. I like Martinelli as a backup for Beran and the team has performed well with that arrangement. But Buie is our best player and "Nicholson with Martinelli" has been generally ineffective. We got torched 6-0, allowing Illinois to tie the game at 14.

After Martinelli went back to the bench and Beran returned, the Wildcats went on a 10-1 run, eventually outscoring Illinois 23-5 and taking a 37-19 lead into the locker room.

After the break, Beran missed a wide open layup and Collins pulled him (and Nicholson) less than 3 minutes into the half. Illinois went on a 6-0 run in the next minute, cutting the lead to 39-31. Nicholson got hurt and left the game. Verhoeven, Barnhizer, Audige, Berry and Buie responded with an unexpected 10-2 surge, putting NU up 50-36 with 12 minutes to play. Nicholson returned with Beran. Buie got a 2 minute rest. We extended the lead to 54-39 with 10:09 to play. But Collins pulled Nicholson quickly and rested Audige and Illinois blitzed us 8-0 in 1:24, making it 54-47 with 8:45 to go. Nicholson and Audige returned. The teams battled evenly for 4 minutes and NU held a 59-52 lead with 4:32 to play. Then Collins subbed in Verhoeven and Illinois torched us with a 9-0 run in under 2 minutes, taking the lead 61-59. Verhoeven fouled out and Nicholson came back in, but we couldn't respond.

Ty Berry played the entire 2nd half. Barnhizer played the last 17:07. Beran played about 4 1/2 minutes. Barnhizer, Buie, Audige and Berry played the last 9:17 together. That group is generally "too small" for extended play, especially with Verhoeven.

Edit: I'm glad this specific game merely ended a 5 game winning streak. Makes it easier to get past it, because when you add it to the last couple weeks - its still one of NU's greatest runs.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

I thought Collins' player use was mixed in the second half. After the first half performance, he really had to keep young Nick on the bench. That led to a seven-man rotation. Big Matt's injury threw the rotation a bit out of whack. As for total minutes between MN and TVH, I think that's almost entirely about keeping MN fresh for the stretch and out of foul trouble. If CCC thought he could handle it, I am sure he'd love to have MN in there for 33-35 minutes. The one thing I didn't understand was Beran barely playing in the second half. Granted he disappears on the offensive end, but so does Berry, and it's really hard to play just 5-6 guys when the opponent is more athletic to begin with and goes 8-9 deep. Beran's +/- for the game just exacerbates the issue. I have to figure something else is going on with Robbie, perhaps healthwise.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Second half Illinois played smaller in response to our down low doubles and all their turnovers against it. Dainja saw almost no time and they were using Hawkins as their 5 to pull MN out to open up more room to drive to the basket. You have to somewhat respect his ability to make 3’s. Although given the way the game was going it might have been better to tell MN to protect the lane and if Hawkins can beat you from 3 hats off to him.

The Beran usage was odd in the second half. Wondering if he doesn’t have some type of injury. CC’s options were sort of limited since Verhoeven fouled out with about 9 mins left- Martinelli seems to be a limited mins type of player at this stage although I like his long term outlook. We could certainly use Roper back in the mix

 

[FeralFelidae]

The teams battled evenly for 4 minutes and NU held a 59-52 lead with 4:32 to play. Then Collins subbed in Verhoeven and Illinois torched us with a 9-0 run in under 2 minutes, taking the lead 61-59. Verhoeven fouled out and Nicholson came back in, but we couldn't respond.

Ty Berry played the entire 2nd half. Barnhizer played the last 17:07. Beran played about 4 1/2 minutes. Barnhizer, Buie, Audige and Berry played the last 9:17 together. That group is generally "too small" for extended play, especially with Verhoeven.

"Post hoc ergo propter hoc."

Full disclosure: I did not get to watch this game due to another commitment. I was only able to listen to the last minute or so live on the radio in my car, after Verhoeven had already fouled out, and from what little I heard, the 'Cats just sounded spent. But the narrative that the defense turned to crap because Verhoeven was in doesn't pass the smell test to me, and the "but we couldn't respond" once Verhoeven was out is mighty convenient hand-waving for your narrative. If Verhoeven had a history of being "too small" on defense, maybe I could buy it, but whatever his shortcomings, that isn't one that comes to mind in any other game I've watched him in.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Second half Illinois played smaller in response to our down low doubles and all their turnovers against it. Dainja saw almost no time and they were using Hawkins as their 5 to pull MN out to open up more room to drive to the basket. You have to somewhat respect his ability to make 3’s. Although given the way the game was going it might have been better to tell MN to protect the lane and if Hawkins can beat you from 3 hats off to him.

The Beran usage was odd in the second half. Wondering if he doesn’t have some type of injury. CC’s options were sort of limited since Verhoeven fouled out with about 9 mins left- Martinelli seems to be a limited mins type of player at this stage although I like his long term outlook. We could certainly use Roper back in the mix

Verhoeven fouled out with 2:26 to go.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Second half Illinois played smaller in response to our down low doubles and all their turnovers against it. Dainja saw almost no time and they were using Hawkins as their 5 to pull MN out to open up more room to drive to the basket. You have to somewhat respect his ability to make 3’s. Although given the way the game was going it might have been better to tell MN to protect the lane and if Hawkins can beat you from 3 hats off to him.

The Beran usage was odd in the second half. Wondering if he doesn’t have some type of injury. CC’s options were sort of limited since Verhoeven fouled out with about 9 mins left- Martinelli seems to be a limited mins type of player at this stage although I like his long term outlook. We could certainly use Roper back in the mix

If Illinois "went small" in the 2nd half, then I don't see how the defense could also be accused of being "too small" too.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

"Post hoc ergo propter hoc."

Full disclosure: I did not get to watch this game due to another commitment. I was only able to listen to the last minute or so live on the radio in my car, after Verhoeven had already fouled out, and from what little I heard, the 'Cats just sounded spent. But the narrative that the defense turned to crap because Verhoeven was in doesn't pass the smell test to me, and the "but we couldn't respond" once Verhoeven was out is mighty convenient hand-waving for your narrative. If Verhoeven had a history of being "too small" on defense, maybe I could buy it, but whatever his shortcomings, that isn't one that comes to mind in any other game I've watched him in.

When Barnhizer is out there with Audige, Buie and Berry, we are too small when Verhoeven is at the 5.

Thats what I wrote and I believe that to be the case. In that scenario we are usually smaller than our opponent at the 3,4 and 5.

 

[FeralFelidae]

When Barnhizer is out there with Audige, Buie and Berry, we are too small when Verhoeven is at the 5.

Thats what I wrote and I believe that to be the case. In that scenario we are usually smaller than our opponent at the 3,4 and 5.

Well, according to PurpleFaze, Illinois went small in the 2nd half, so whether or not you are correct in the "usual" case, that doesn't seem to be the case here.

 

[samuirocks]

Is Roper out for the season?

 

[NUCat320]

It’s weird, because small Illinois is still pretty big, even if they’re wing types.

Harris: 6-4
Shannon: 6-6, 225
Rodgers: 6-6, 200
Mayer: 6-9
Hawkins: 6-10

NU is outsized at every position except center when Nicholson is in there. And while it didn’t show so much on the boards, it showed in the length messing with NU’s guys.

Dainja couldn’t handle the double teaming and sat the second half. It was a good move by Underwood. 15 minutes were his second-lowest in conference play.

Mayer is what we thought Beran could be. Mayer was Denny’s composite #90 in 2018, Beran #110 in 2019.

 

[PurpleFaze]

If Illinois "went small" in the 2nd half, then I don't see how the defense could also be accused of being "too small" too.

They lost the second line of defense- if they got beat off the dribble then MN wasn’t there to try and change a shot. Illinois was using Hawkins to help move him out of the lane.

They basically didn‘t play Dainja who is like 6’8” 270 in the second half and abandoned trying to create post offense.

Small is relative since Illinois has a bunch of lanky rangy types, but it was for them. NU played who we have. It’s not a great matchup for us as we give up size basically everywhere except at one spot with MN in the game.

I don’t think we lost because of defense- the main reason we lost was because nobody except boo and a little bit of barnhizer could score. Plus Illinois wised up and quit throwing the ball away as much. Illinois was 15/26 on 2’s. NU was 13/42

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Well, according to PurpleFaze, Illinois went small in the 2nd half, so whether or not you are correct in the "usual" case, that doesn't seem to be the case here.

Illinois used these 6 for the last 10 minutes

Terrence Shannon 6'6" 215
Matthew Mayer 6'9" 225
Sencire Harris 6'4" 160
Ty Rodgers 6'6" 200
Coleman Hawkins 6'10" 225
with RJ Melendez (playing about 3 minutes) 6'7" 205

we had a hard time matching them physically with Verhoeven, Barnhizer, Berry, Ausige and Buie.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Is Roper out for the season?

It would sure be nice to have him back for the B1G Tourney.

 

[NUCat320]

@PurpleWhiteBoy it seems that shooting is a disproportionate part of your player adjustment. Berry was on the boards and Chase was in the passing lanes. What’s your formula ?

 

[FeralFelidae]

@PurpleWhiteBoy it seems that shooting is a disproportionate part of your player adjustment. Berry was on the boards and Chase was in the passing lanes. What’s your formula ?

Well, Berry and Chase combined for 4-of-22 shooting, so they deserve to take a hit.

NU took 13 more shots than Illinois, but made the same amount.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Fouling on threes is bad. Were they both legit or were either of them flops?

 

[NUCat320]

Fouling on threes is bad. Were they both legit or were either of them flops?

They were both “didn’t allow landing space”. Not flops, but not calls a few years ago.

I don’t think there was contact with the shooting arm on either.

Well, Berry and Chase combined for 4-of-22 shooting, so they deserve to take a hit.

NU took 13 more shots than Illinois, but made the same amount.

They were both garbage. Just interested in the calculation.

 

[EagerFan]

In the closing of the second half, the biggest difference I saw was that Shannon was eating Chase's lunch on almost every possession, and scoring pretty easily on the drive. Without Matt at the rim, Shannon had a field day.

On the offensive side, It seemed like the Cats stagnated into watching Boo dribble drive. There just wasn't much movement off ball, leading to no one open enough to have a good shot on the kick out. Boo tried several times to get the other guys moving, taking the ball, taking the shot, and except for Chase they just weren't having it. And Chase was basically dragging his defender and had a hard time getting open as well.

Did anyone see why Chase stopped going to the rim? He had a couple of layups - including a put back of his own rebound, but went back to off balance fades at the end.

 

[Smolmania]

I couldn't understand why Chase kept hedging to Shannon's right hand. He's a left, and crossed him over multiple times to go to his left hand. It's like he forgot the scouting report.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

@PurpleWhiteBoy it seems that shooting is a disproportionate part of your player adjustment. Berry was on the boards and Chase was in the passing lanes. What’s your formula ?

its similar to the BoxScorePlusMinus stat.

Made 2	Made 3	Miss FG	Made FT	Miss FT	Oreb	DReb	Asst	TO	Steal	Block
+1	+2	-0.8	+0.5	-0.5	+0.8	+0.4	+0.5	-1	+1	+0.75

Initially I had Offensive Rebounds at +1 and Missed FGs at -1. but came to realize that a missed shot is not as bad as a turnover, despite what UNC's Hubert Davis tells his team.

I wanted an Offensive Rebound followed by a missed putback to net out to nothing.

Assists are tricky because they require a teammate to score.
A block is like "most of a steal."

Some improvements I made on the BoxScorePlusMinus stat are...
A Defensive Rebound on a missed FT is only worth 0.2.
A missed FT on the front end of a 1 and 1 is like missing two FTs, so that is -1.

Lastly, I accredit the pluses and minuses for each player per segment of the game. So If we go on a 9-0 run with Nicholson, Beran,Audige, Barnhizer and Buie on the floor, they are all Raw +9. But if, during that segment, Buie hit three 3's and our opponent just threw the ball out of bounds every time, then Buie gets a Player Adjust of +6 and the other 4 guys get Player Adjusts of -1.5 (to offset Buie's +6).

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

In the closing of the second half, the biggest difference I saw was that Shannon was eating Chase's lunch on almost every possession, and scoring pretty easily on the drive. Without Matt at the rim, Shannon had a field day.

The above is accurate...

at 10:09 Cats are ahead 54-39. Nicholson subbed out. Verhoeven in. (Beran is on the court)
10:07 Berry fouls Mayer on 3 pt attempt. Mayer makes all 3 FTs
9:19 Shannon makes 3 ptr. 54-45.
9:17 Illinois calls timeout (?) Collins subs in Audige for Beran.
8:45 Shannon is fouled by Verhoeven, makes 2 FT. 54-47. Nicholson in for Verhoeven.
7:32 Audige fouls Shannon. Shannon miss 2 FT. Ill gets rebound over Barnhizer. Mayer makes 3 ptr. 54-50.
7:05 Buie makes 2 FT. 56-50.
6:48 Nicholson blocks Hawkins layup. Buie rebound.
6:19 Buie misses a 3 ptr.
5:57 Nicholson deflects or alters Shannon sideways jumper in lane, Buie gets ball.
5:33 Buie makes 1 of 2 FTs. 57-50.
5:05 Hawkins makes layup. 57-52.
4:33 Shannon blocks Audige layup attempt, but we get it back and score. 59-52
4:32 Verhoeven subbed in for Nicholson (this one had me asking the TV "No... Why?")
4:24 Shannon makes 3 ptr. 59-55.
4:00 Shannon steals ball from Audige and goes down to score. 59-57.
3:26 Berry and Audige miss shots.
3:07 Harris makes layup for Illini. 59-59.
2:49 Buie turnover.
2:36 Verhoeven fouls out. Mayer makes 2 FT. 59-61. Nicholson back in.
2:11 Barnhizer scores in low post, assisted by Nicholson. 61-61.
1:53 offensive foul by Illini's Mayer.
1:34 Buie misses layup. (I think this is the overturned out of bounds call)
1:16 Shannon makes layup. 61-63.
0:52 Nicholson fouled under basket. Makes first, misses 2nd. 62-63.
0:25 Hawkins misses a 3 ptr. Ilinois gets rebound. We foul. Shannon makes 1 of 2. 62-64.
0:02 Buie misses layup. We foul. Illinois makes both. game over.

 

[EagerFan]

1:34 Buie misses layup. (I think this is the overturned out of bounds call)

Seeing that replay a ton of times trying to see the out of bounds issue, and all I see is the defender pushing Boo's waist as he takes that shot.