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+/- for the Gutting of Georgia Tech

PurpleWhiteBoy

Well-Known Member
Feb 25, 2021
4,731
5,462
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PlayerMinutesNU PtsGa Tech PtsRaw +/-Player +/-Net +/-Box +/-
Barnhizer376956+13+2.69+5.2910.75
Berry366758+11+3.25+5.0510.6
Martinelli386756+11+1.35+3.559.1
Nicholson223926+13+0.51+3.114.7
Hunger173232+0-1.79-1.792.1
Mullins202232-10+0.04-1.960.8
Leach305940+19-6.05-2.252.35

Nobody really stood out in a solid effort by the Wildcats. Jalen Leach drew the short straw, going 5 of 16 from the floor with 2 assists, 2 turnovers and one rebound, while backcourt partner Ty Berry put in a good effort going 4 of 8 from the floor, with 3 of 5 from outside the arc, 3 steals, 2 assists, 5 rebounds and zero turnovers.

The starters (Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Leach/Berry put together an impressive 35-17 advantage over 16 minutes. That includes getting outscored 6-2 from 3:11 to 0:59 in a game that was essentially over. In other words, at the 3:11 mark the Cats were ahead 69-52, with the starters showing a 33-11 ledger in 14 minutes of game time. It is difficult to do much better than that.

Justin Mullins missed a 3 pointer with 11 minutes to go, got subbed out and didn't re-enter the game until there was a minute left. We only scored 22 points in his 20 minutes of action.

Oh, we inadvertently ran "the other play" for Nicholson when Leach drove to his left down the lane, drew their big guy, threw up a shot off the backboard and Nicholson grabbed it and dunked it. Works every time!

I should mention that when Nicholson picked up his 3rd foul with 17:57 to play, the Cats were only winning 33-26. Hunger took Matt's place with the starters and NU went on a 10-2 run over the next 2:43 to take a 43-28 lead. Georgia Tech was never in the game after that.
 
I thought Leach was hugely important in the first half. We were struggling offensively and he was the bright spot. Probably prevented us from going to the locker room down.

He also seems more comfortable with the physicality and speed of high major ball
 
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I thought Leach was hugely important in the first half. We were struggling offensively and he was the bright spot. Probably prevented us from going to the locker room down.

He also seems more comfortable with the physicality and speed of high major ball
Agreed. And this sounds a lot like the first half against Illinois.
 
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I thought Leach was hugely important in the first half. We were struggling offensively and he was the bright spot. Probably prevented us from going to the locker room down.

He also seems more comfortable with the physicality and speed of high major ball

Martinelli had a strong first 10 minutes, then a bad 10 minutes.
Barnhizer made up for 6 of 18 shooting with 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks and just one turnover.
But Leach was +19, so the team certainly played better when he was on the court.
 
To rate Hunger over Leach in any capacity is patently ridiculous. If the team did well at any time he was in the game, it was because of the other players on the floor.
 
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To rate Hunger over Leach in any capacity is patently ridiculous. If the team did well at any time he was in the game, it was because of the other players on the floor.
Well some people say similar things about Nicholson. The Player +/- is purely a representation of each player's box score contribution, applied to the game as it plays out, assigning credit for points we score or blame for empty trips, credit for getting possession, blame for losing it.

Here's a comparison...

Hunger was 1 of 4 with 1 offensive rebound, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover.
Leach was 5 of 16, 4 for 4 on free throws, 1 defensive rebound, 2 assist, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 turnovers.

The ratings expect players to score 8 points on every 9 shots. Anything worse than that is hurting the team. Anything better is helping.
Leach took 16 shots, scored 12 points on those shots. Thats a net shooting performance of -1.8 points. He gets 2 points for going 4 of 4 from the free throw line. His 2 turnovers completely offset his 2 assists and 1 steal. So he's putting very little into the box score.

Its hard to see how that box score would be considered good when compared to teammates.
 
Well some people say similar things about Nicholson. The Player +/- is purely a representation of each player's box score contribution, applied to the game as it plays out, assigning credit for points we score or blame for empty trips, credit for getting possession, blame for losing it.

Here's a comparison...

Hunger was 1 of 4 with 1 offensive rebound, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover.
Leach was 5 of 16, 4 for 4 on free throws, 1 defensive rebound, 2 assist, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 turnovers.

The ratings expect players to score 8 points on every 9 shots. Anything worse than that is hurting the team. Anything better is helping.
Leach took 16 shots, scored 12 points on those shots. Thats a net shooting performance of -1.8 points. He gets 2 points for going 4 of 4 from the free throw line. His 2 turnovers completely offset his 2 assists and 1 steal. So he's putting very little into the box score.

Its hard to see how that box score would be considered good when compared to teammates.
What your rating system doesn't take into account is defense, where Hunger is terrible and Nicholson is excellent. Hunger is also not good at jumping, rebounding, and scoring under the basket. Just from eyeballing the game it is quite obvious to anyone with half a brain that Leach is far more valuable to the team than Hunger.
 
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Well some people say similar things about Nicholson. The Player +/- is purely a representation of each player's box score contribution, applied to the game as it plays out, assigning credit for points we score or blame for empty trips, credit for getting possession, blame for losing it.

Here's a comparison...

Hunger was 1 of 4 with 1 offensive rebound, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover.
Leach was 5 of 16, 4 for 4 on free throws, 1 defensive rebound, 2 assist, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 turnovers.

The ratings expect players to score 8 points on every 9 shots. Anything worse than that is hurting the team. Anything better is helping.
Leach took 16 shots, scored 12 points on those shots. Thats a net shooting performance of -1.8 points. He gets 2 points for going 4 of 4 from the free throw line. His 2 turnovers completely offset his 2 assists and 1 steal. So he's putting very little into the box score.

It’s hard to see how that box score would be considered good when compared to teammates.
If we highlight that the people who touch the ball the least are the most efficient, then we would easily wrongly conclude that we should give them the ball more often. This is why Hunger can look good compared to a point guard like Leach. He has the ball in his hands a ton; imagine how bad things would be for Hunger if he handled it as much as Leach.

Also - Defense matters as equally as
Offense and Hunger was visibly terrible on Defense.
 
If we highlight that the people who touch the ball the least are the most efficient, then we would easily wrongly conclude that we should give them the ball more often. This is why Hunger can look good compared to a point guard like Leach. He has the ball in his hands a ton; imagine how bad things would be for Hunger if he handled it as much as Leach.

Also - Defense matters as equally as
Offense and Hunger was visibly terrible on Defense.
Exactly!
 
It would be nice if Mullins could take another step in his game. His defense is quite strong, but he doesn't exist on the offensive end. When he does get the ball, he doesn't even appear to look at the basket. He is automatically looking for someone to give it up to. Of course, the one shot he did take was that three from the corner where he missed everything. At some point, it would be great if he was forced to drive it into the lane and see what he can create. He is athletic enough. I could stomach a couple turnovers and some missed shots to get him starting to be more aggressive.
 
It would be nice if Mullins could take another step in his game. His defense is quite strong, but he doesn't exist on the offensive end. When he does get the ball, he doesn't even appear to look at the basket. He is automatically looking for someone to give it up to. Of course, the one shot he did take was that three from the corner where he missed everything. At some point, it would be great if he was forced to drive it into the lane and see what he can create. He is athletic enough. I could stomach a couple turnovers and some missed shots to get him starting to be more aggressive.
Didn't he take 5 3's against Illinois? That's pretty dang aggressive in my book.
 
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Didn't he take 5 3's against Illinois? That's pretty dang aggressive in my book.
He did, because Illinois was totally daring him to shoot. His 1 for 5 performance, however, probably shook his confidence because in the Ga Tech game, it looked like he was playing hot potato with the basketball. I'm actually trying to encourage him here. He has some skills around the basket. In addition to that one 3 pointer he made, wasn't the Illinois game the one where he had that nice reverse layup in a key moment? That's what I want to see more from him, but he has to go for it in the half-court game as well!
 
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If we highlight that the people who touch the ball the least are the most efficient, then we would easily wrongly conclude that we should give them the ball more often. This is why Hunger can look good compared to a point guard like Leach. He has the ball in his hands a ton; imagine how bad things would be for Hunger if he handled it as much as Leach.

Also - Defense matters as equally as
Offense and Hunger was visibly terrible on Defense.
Exactly. if you over-value efficiency and undervalue counting stats, you're going to end up with a team of guys who only do the safe thing. You need guys who handle the ball on every possession. You need guys willing to take a tough shot. To analogize across sports, sure it's wonderful that Caleb Williams doesn't throw interceptions, but that doesn't make him a winning player.
 
I can tell from some comments that the commenter doesn't understand the evaluation method.
I'll explain it again and am happy to discuss.

I started with +/- only, as the best numeric measure of how well a 5 man lineup played together.
This lineup played 2:30 and we won 5-4. For each lineup change, there's a separate game segment. Add up the scores and assign to each player on the court at that time.

I believe in the value of that approach, as it picks up all the intangibles that don't show up in the box score, but make the difference between winning and losing. And obviously, if you are keeping track of the points we score and the points the opponent scores and the amount of time it takes to do so, you have a handle on defensive and offensive capabilities of every lineup (over time). Defense is a team effort.

That approach met with some legitimate concern that, say, Ryan Greer or Elijah Williams could stand out because they were +6 or whatever when he was playing and Boo Buie had hit a couple 3 pointers - in essence role players could get lucky when somebody else was doing all the actual work on the offensive end.

So I took the next step and started rating the contributions of the players - based on the only readily available information - the box score, and eventually the play-by-play. As far as I know, most of the major stats guys do the same thing. In some ways I feel like I'm ahead.

If we win by 15 points and we play the same 5 man lineup the entire game, each of those guys gets a +3 (3 X 5 = 15). Intangibles are assigned equally to the guys on the court. To assign credit or blame beyond that, each player's positive contributions must compared to those of his teammates. This is important and seems to confuse people.

I assume we average 1 point every time we have the ball. (its close enough) If you turn the ball over you just cost your team 1 point. If you steal the ball, you just deprived the opponent of 1 point. If you make a layup, the team gets 2 points, which is one more than we expect. So you contributed an extra 1 point. If you miss a shot, its very likely that the other team will get the ball. So that is -0.8, somewhat like a turnover. However, if you rebound your own miss, that has to offset the missed shot, so thats a +0.8. A 3-pointer is +2. An assist is +0.5. This approach puts a premium on efficient scoring.

On the defensive side, there are blocks, steals and rebounds. Not much to go on. A defensive rebound gets a 0.4. A steal is +1 and a blocked shot is +0.75 because your team usually gets the ball.

Free throws are based on making 1 of 2. If you make one, you get a +0.5. If you miss its -0.5. So if you make 1 of 2, you get zero points of credit because we expect 1 point every time we have the ball and thats what you provided. Defensive rebounds of missed free throws are +0.2 because they're easier. If you get fouled while scoring, the subsequent made free throw is +1 and a miss is not held against you. This puts the old school 3 point play on par with the 3 point shot.

So these contributions and mistakes are allocated to the guys on the court. If Barnhizer makes a 3 pointer, he gets a +2, but the 4 other guys get a -0.5. If Barnhizer misses a shot, everybody gets a +0.2 and Barnhizer gets a -0.8. If you are standing there watching your teammates play well, you will accumulate negative points as they accumulate positive points.

All of that gets added up for each player and results in a Player +/-.

The Player +/- is added to his Raw +/- (divided by 5 players) to get his Net +/-.

I'm pretty confident in this approach although minor tweaking could still improve it.
 
To rate Hunger over Leach in any capacity is patently ridiculous. If the team did well at any time he was in the game, it was because of the other players on the floor.
The Hunger hate is so weird. He’s a C. Very few Cs score much or become headliners on a team. He’s the #2 C playing his second college season and I think he has done quite good (but I also felt positive about MN, BB and Mart before they started pulling bandwagons).

I would challenge any of you to find two better backup Cs in the B1G. Hunger is a top tier second team big and I bet will be even better next year as the starter. I don’t think he will be drafted or lead the team in scoring. And that’s absolutely OK.
 
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What your rating system doesn't take into account is defense, where Hunger is terrible and Nicholson is excellent. Hunger is also not good at jumping, rebounding, and scoring under the basket. Just from eyeballing the game it is quite obvious to anyone with half a brain that Leach is far more valuable to the team than Hunger.
Maybe we should start five guards then….
 
I can tell from some comments that the commenter doesn't understand the evaluation method.
I'll explain it again and am happy to discuss.

I started with +/- only, as the best numeric measure of how well a 5 man lineup played together.
This lineup played 2:30 and we won 5-4. For each lineup change, there's a separate game segment. Add up the scores and assign to each player on the court at that time.

I believe in the value of that approach, as it picks up all the intangibles that don't show up in the box score, but make the difference between winning and losing. And obviously, if you are keeping track of the points we score and the points the opponent scores and the amount of time it takes to do so, you have a handle on defensive and offensive capabilities of every lineup (over time). Defense is a team effort.

That approach met with some legitimate concern that, say, Ryan Greer or Elijah Williams could stand out because they were +6 or whatever when he was playing and Boo Buie had hit a couple 3 pointers - in essence role players could get lucky when somebody else was doing all the actual work on the offensive end.

So I took the next step and started rating the contributions of the players - based on the only readily available information - the box score, and eventually the play-by-play. As far as I know, most of the major stats guys do the same thing. In some ways I feel like I'm ahead.

If we win by 15 points and we play the same 5 man lineup the entire game, each of those guys gets a +3 (3 X 5 = 15). Intangibles are assigned equally to the guys on the court. To assign credit or blame beyond that, each player's positive contributions must compared to those of his teammates. This is important and seems to confuse people.

I assume we average 1 point every time we have the ball. (its close enough) If you turn the ball over you just cost your team 1 point. If you steal the ball, you just deprived the opponent of 1 point. If you make a layup, the team gets 2 points, which is one more than we expect. So you contributed an extra 1 point. If you miss a shot, its very likely that the other team will get the ball. So that is -0.8, somewhat like a turnover. However, if you rebound your own miss, that has to offset the missed shot, so thats a +0.8. A 3-pointer is +2. An assist is +0.5. This approach puts a premium on efficient scoring.

On the defensive side, there are blocks, steals and rebounds. Not much to go on. A defensive rebound gets a 0.4. A steal is +1 and a blocked shot is +0.75 because your team usually gets the ball.

Free throws are based on making 1 of 2. If you make one, you get a +0.5. If you miss its -0.5. So if you make 1 of 2, you get zero points of credit because we expect 1 point every time we have the ball and thats what you provided. Defensive rebounds of missed free throws are +0.2 because they're easier. If you get fouled while scoring, the subsequent made free throw is +1 and a miss is not held against you. This puts the old school 3 point play on par with the 3 point shot.

So these contributions and mistakes are allocated to the guys on the court. If Barnhizer makes a 3 pointer, he gets a +2, but the 4 other guys get a -0.5. If Barnhizer misses a shot, everybody gets a +0.2 and Barnhizer gets a -0.8. If you are standing there watching your teammates play well, you will accumulate negative points as they accumulate positive points.

All of that gets added up for each player and results in a Player +/-.

The Player +/- is added to his Raw +/- (divided by 5 players) to get his Net +/-.

I'm pretty confident in this approach although minor tweaking could still improve it.
You've explained your system numerous times, and it absolutely has value, probably more value than I have ever brought to this site. But... that doesn't mean it's free from the flaws that many have pointed out here. It over-values efficiency and undervalues counting stats. Someone has to take a shot before the clock expires. if no one is open, that will more likely be a guard.

For example: Say the Cats run four offensive possessions where no one gets open and Leach has to shoot a tough shot each time. If he makes one of four shots, that registers as negative for him. Still one made shot is better than had he chosen not to shoot, and some poor sap gets stuck with the hot potato as the shot-clock runs out on all four possessions.

As it has played out over the years, it seems that the primary ball-handler, in general, gets punished by your system while the post player benefits. Not always, but that is how it seems to me.
 
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Maybe we should start five guards then….
There was a Steve Martin song that included the line "Criticize things you don't know about" and it pops into my head on occasion - as a cautionary verse. We are all prone to doing it - some more than others.

Having said that, it is difficult at times to argue with emotional responses to a calculation!

Hunger had 5 assists in 17 minutes. An unbiased person might assume he's the backup point guard.
 
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You've explained your system numerous times, and it absolutely has value, probably more value than I have ever brought to this site. But... that doesn't mean it's free from the flaws that many have pointed out here. It over-values efficiency and undervalues counting stats. Someone has to take a shot before the clock expires. if no one is open, that will more likely be a guard.

For example: Say the Cats run four offensive possessions where no one gets open and Leach has to shoot a tough shot each time. If he makes one of four shots, that registers as negative for him. Still one made shot is better than had he chosen not to shoot, and some poor sap gets stuck with the hot potato as the shot-clock runs out on all four possessions.

As it has played out over the years, it seems that the primary ball-handler, in general, gets punished by your system while the post player benefits. Not always, but that is how it seems to me.
Thank you for that response. I genuinely appreciate the feedback. I will get back later.

Okay I'm adding on...

I think your example is overstated. If Leach gets stuck holding the ball 4 times in a game with the shot clock expiring, we're in trouble!
It isn't even clear that he is the primary ballhandler. But I understand what you are saying in general - I just think its a minor effect. Last time I remember it was Nicholson throwing up a left-handed prayer on the baseline from 10 feet away.

If I start rewarding guys for shooting... that just seems wrong. There are a lot of "top scorers" who make their teams lose on a regular basis. So I have to balance "ball hogs" versus "nobody else can get a shot off." There's an implicit assumption that we can get a shot up.

One thing I can do is lower the penalty for missing a shot. That requires lowering the reward for getting an offensive rebound as well.
If I lower it from 0.8 to 0.7, that would have a small effect - helping the shooters at the expense of the rebounders. But it would also mean I'd have to go back and re-do three years of games.

Logic has taught us all that efficient scoring matters a lot. The willingness to take a shot is really only valuable if there aren't better alternatives - and I don't want to reward guys taking shots they can get anytime - or even worse - not passing the ball. If there's one thing to say for assists - it means we scored at least 2 points.

Lastly, the play-by-play will often declare "team rebound" or "turnover by team" when more than 1 person is involved. I'd like to split credit or blame, but in most cases I don't remember the play and can't do that.
 
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There was a Steve Martin song that included the line "Criticize things you don't know about" and it pops into my head on occasion - as a cautionary verse. We are all prone to doing it - some more than others.
Great reference! We must be about the same age. I listened to that Steve Martin album about a hundred times when I was 11 or 12.

Here are the full lyrics.
 
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You've explained your system numerous times, and it absolutely has value, probably more value than I have ever brought to this site. But... that doesn't mean it's free from the flaws that many have pointed out here. It over-values efficiency and undervalues counting stats. Someone has to take a shot before the clock expires. if no one is open, that will more likely be a guard.

For example: Say the Cats run four offensive possessions where no one gets open and Leach has to shoot a tough shot each time. If he makes one of four shots, that registers as negative for him. Still one made shot is better than had he chosen not to shoot, and some poor sap gets stuck with the hot potato as the shot-clock runs out on all four possessions.

As it has played out over the years, it seems that the primary ball-handler, in general, gets punished by your system while the post player benefits. Not always, but that is how it seems to me.
All models, by definition, oversimplify complex situations. The trade-off for simplification and metrification of performance in order to do comparisons, rankings, etc. is mis-attribution or mis-allocation of value. It becomes nearly impossible to account for outlier events like the one you describe. In baseball, one guy scorches one right at the first baseman with the bases juiced, 2 out in ninth of a tie game. The next guy gets jammed, and hits a duck snort that falls just beyond the retreating first baseman. It happens.

But the best models stand the test of time and large datasets. I am in no position to deeply critique PWB's model, but it makes intuitive sense and generally explains what we see with our eyes and in the box score. While Leach did some good things vs. GT, he was 5-16 with more turnovers than assists.

We should compare his score vs. GT to his score vs. IL, where he shot 6-14 with 5 assists and 0 turnovers.
 
There was a Steve Martin song that included the line "Criticize things you don't know about" and it pops into my head on occasion - as a cautionary verse. We are all prone to doing it - some more than others.

Having said that, it is difficult at times to argue with emotional responses to a calculation!

Hunger had 5 assists in 17 minutes. An unbiased person might assume he's the backup point guard.
I would agree that your system has value and that it is interesting. However, in my opinion, it suffers from lack of defensive statistics, where Hunger is clearly a liability. Opposing centers score easily against him, and he can't jump and score while under the basket himself. As I've said before, I cringe when he comes into the game, especially when he has to play extended minutes because MN picks up 2 or 3 relatively early fouls.
 
Hunger has very nice form on his shot and could be a decent threat from 3 to draw out the opposing big, but he just doesn't seem to make many of them. Maybe that will change in the Big Ten season. Let's hope. I agree, around the basket he can't finish and is somewhat of a defensive liability.
 
Hunger really tries and has a lot of heart from what I've seen. He is short, slow, and low for a center and it shows in his defense against top tier talent. Improving his offensive shooting would go a long way towards improving his value on the court.
 
The numbers for Nicholson vs Hunger are fairly representative of what everyone seems to notice.
Using 6 games since Barnhizer returned (not the Pepperdine mismatch) for a typical 40 minute game...
Nicholson on the floor our overall scores project to 69.45 to 62.26
Hunger on the floor its 70.46 to 70.91.

Those numbers only tell us that the team plays significantly better defense when Nicholson is out there - as Collins deploys him.
It doesn't tell us how good or bad either guy is compared to the average D1 player.

Nicholson can "look like" the best player on the team primarily because he never plays with Hunger - while everybody else does.
And he tends to shoot a fairly high field goal percentage on limited shots.
Noted stats guy Evan Miyakawa rates every player in D1. To his method, Nicholson is the most valuable player on the NU roster, followed by Barnhizer, Berry, Martinelli, Leach, Windham, Mullins and Hunger. His numbers are based on the entire season.

My adjusted player ratings using the 6 games have it Nicholson, Barnhizer, Martinelli, Berry, Leach, Hunger, Mullins.
Martinelli, Berry and Leach are tightly bunched. Hunger and Mullins are well behind them. I am not going to claim that Nicholson is the best player on the team. To evaluate that, I'd have to restrict the dataset to only the minutes when Nicholson was playing. Unfortunately not easy.

Nicholson's relative success is based entirely on the performance of the starting lineup. The starters are ahead 177-122 (78-54 pace).
However, the same can be said for each of the starters. Put differently, if the starters aren't on the floor as a unit, we're down 248-279.

But there is a ray of sunshine in those stats. When Hunger and Mullins are on the court together, we've eked out a 94-91 advantage. I would say that Coach Collins is aware that Mullins is a better defender than most, while Hunger adds offense and subtracts defense. So he plays those two together most of the time. The numbers say that is smart, at least so far. For what its worth, when Nicholson and Mullins have been on the floor together, we're been outscored 69-51 (a 75-56 loss over 40 minutes).
 
There was a Steve Martin song that included the line "Criticize things you don't know about" and it pops into my head on occasion - as a cautionary verse. We are all prone to doing it - some more than others.

Having said that, it is difficult at times to argue with emotional responses to a calculation!

Hunger had 5 assists in 17 minutes. An unbiased person might assume he's the backup point guard.
I think we will find that fact snippet of Hunger’s 5 assists in 17 minutes to be a real outlier.

As we know from George Box - “All models are wrong; some are useful”. I think the model has strengths and weaknesses, the latter especially when comparing guards vs. bigs, as well as when a coach only regularly plays 2 subs.
 
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I love these threads, even if I only understand about half of it. So, thanks everyone. :)
 
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