+/- for the Punishment against Penn State

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I had too much going on to get this out in a timely manner, but just putting it out there for the sake of completion...

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	PSU Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Beran	31	51	44	+7	+3.8	+10.8
Nicholson	21	29	26	+3	+3.6	+6.6
Barnhizer	38	59	59	+0	+1.2	+1.2
Verhoeven	8	6	12	-6	+5.2	-0.8
Martinelli	18	29	33	-4	+1.7	-2.3
Audige	36	50	49	+1	-6.9	-5.9
Buie	36	49	58	-9	-0.9	-9.9
Berry	37	52	54	-2	-7.7	-9.7

Kind of a stomach-turning game as the 3 guards just sort of dragged the team down with lots of missed shots. Most positive was the strong play of Robbie Beran, who bounced back from some bad games.
As expected, when Collins went small, he turned to Beran at the 5. This happened only after Verhoeven picked up his 4th foul. Nicholson/Martinelli and Barnhizer were the frontcourt for about 7:30, outscoring PSU 17-14 to cut the deficit to 45-43 with 8 minutes to go. Collins then went with Beran/Barnhizer/Berry/Audige/Buie for the last 8 minutes of regulation. After we went to OT, Collins switched it up and went with Nicholson/Barnhizer and the 3 guards, but PSU hit a 3 and a free throw to go up 4 and Collins went right back to Beran at the 5.

Audige missed 11 shots and only made 3 for the game. Berry missed 9 shots and only made 1. Those two have become very similar players and both hurt us in a(nother) game we should have won.

Buie sat for about 9 minutes and we won those segments 16-9. Audige sat for about 9 minutes too. We lost those segments 18-15.
When Nicholson and Beran were out there together, we outscored PSU 19-12 in about 13 minutes, shutting the Nittany Lions down.

Micah Shrewsbury is now 4-0 against Chris Collins, I believe.

 

[ricko654321]

I had too much going on to get this out in a timely manner, but just putting it out there for the sake of completion...

Player	Minutes	NU Pts	PSU Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Beran	31	51	44	+7	+3.8	+10.8
Nicholson	21	29	26	+3	+3.6	+6.6
Barnhizer	38	59	59	+0	+1.2	+1.2
Verhoeven	8	6	12	-6	+5.2	-0.8
Martinelli	18	29	33	-4	+1.7	-2.3
Audige	36	50	49	+1	-6.9	-5.9
Buie	36	49	58	-9	-0.9	-9.9
Berry	37	52	54	-2	-7.7	-9.7

Kind of a stomach-turning game as the 3 guards just sort of dragged the team down with lots of missed shots. Most positive was the strong play of Robbie Beran, who bounced back from some bad games.
As expected, when Collins went small, he turned to Beran at the 5. This happened only after Verhoeven picked up his 4th foul. Nicholson/Martinelli and Barnhizer were the frontcourt for about 7:30, outscoring PSU 17-14 to cut the deficit to 45-43 with 8 minutes to go. Collins then went with Beran/Barnhizer/Berry/Audige/Buie for the last 8 minutes of regulation. After we went to OT, Collins switched it up and went with Nicholson/Barnhizer and the 3 guards, but PSU hit a 3 and a free throw to go up 4 and Collins went right back to Beran at the 5.

Audige missed 11 shots and only made 3 for the game. Berry missed 9 shots and only made 1. Those two have become very similar players and both hurt us in a(nother) game we should have won.

Buie sat for about 9 minutes and we won those segments 16-9. Audige sat for about 9 minutes too. We lost those segments 18-15.
When Nicholson and Beran were out there together, we outscored PSU 19-12 in about 13 minutes, shutting the Nittany Lions down.

Micah Shrewsbury is now 4-0 against Chris Collins, I believe.

Appreciate the effort on doing these. Not sure if you have been keeping the results from the full season, but if so by chance do you have it for the full year (vs P5 opponents) to share? The larger sample size would be interesting to look at. If not, no worries.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Appreciate the effort on doing these. Not sure if you have been keeping the results from the full season, but if so by chance do you have it for the full year (vs P5 opponents) to share? The larger sample size would be interesting to look at. If not, no worries.

Here's the 21 games against Big Ten teams...

Player	Minutes	Raw NU/Opp	Player Adj	Adj NU/Opp
Nicholson	456	1.05	+45.2	1.117
Barnhizer	527	1.019	+15.5	1.037
Beran	508	1.034	-3.8	1.029
Buie	749	1.022	+4.7	1.026
Verhoeven	323	0.955	+28.6	1.009
Berry	576	1.042	-29.9	1.009
Martinelli	163	1.015	-5.1	0.996
Roper	178	0.960	+3.9	0.972
Audige	737	1.015	-58.7	0.967

So obviously the system had problems with Audige missing so many shots over the course of the season. While Chase led the team in steals, his poor overall shooting, plus relative lack of rebounds and less than stellar assist/turnover ratio chipped away at his rating. Audige played a ton of minutes and the sample size of the team's performance without him is fairly small, but the team average (NU/Opp) was 1.024. In other words, when Audige sat, we usually didn't suffer a setback.

The Player Adjust tries to allocate credit or blame for our scoring differential in each game. Nicholson stands out, primarily because he did not play with Verhoeven at all. Everybody else played with both centers.

It should be noted that on a team where some players are taking and missing most of the shots, guys like Verhoeven and Nicholson (who don't miss most of their shots) will be adjusted upward relative to their teammates.

Buie, as the primary ballhandler, isn't getting credit for not turning the ball over - so this approach undervalues him to an unknown degree.

Similarly, if a defender is causing a lot of missed shots from the player(s) he is guarding, that won't be obvious here - it will be attributed to every defender on the court equally. Only blocks, steals and defensive rebounds separate the defenders.

 

[Figrating]

Kind of a stomach-turning game as the 3 guards just sort of dragged the team down with lots of missed shots.

Really good stuff, PWB. Says it all. Why must all 3 go cold in this big game?

 

[ricko654321]

Here's the 21 games against Big Ten teams...

Player	Minutes	Raw NU/Opp	Player Adj	Adj NU/Opp
Nicholson	456	1.05	+45.2	1.117
Barnhizer	527	1.019	+15.5	1.037
Beran	508	1.034	-3.8	1.029
Buie	749	1.022	+4.7	1.026
Verhoeven	323	0.955	+28.6	1.009
Berry	576	1.042	-29.9	1.009
Martinelli	163	1.015	-5.1	0.996
Roper	178	0.960	+3.9	0.972
Audige	737	1.015	-58.7	0.967

So obviously the system had problems with Audige missing so many shots over the course of the season. While Chase led the team in steals, his poor overall shooting, plus relative lack of rebounds and less than stellar assist/turnover ratio chipped away at his rating. Audige played a ton of minutes and the sample size of the team's performance without him is fairly small, but the team average (NU/Opp) was 1.024. In other words, when Audige sat, we usually didn't suffer a setback.

The Player Adjust tries to allocate credit or blame for our scoring differential in each game. Nicholson stands out, primarily because he did not play with Verhoeven at all. Everybody else played with both centers.

It should be noted that on a team where some players are taking and missing most of the shots, guys like Verhoeven and Nicholson (who don't miss most of their shots) will be adjusted upward relative to their teammates.

Buie, as the primary ballhandler, isn't getting credit for not turning the ball over - so this approach undervalues him to an unknown degree.

Similarly, if a defender is causing a lot of missed shots from the player(s) he is guarding, that won't be obvious here - it will be attributed to every defender on the court equally. Only blocks, steals and defensive rebounds separate the defenders.

Thanks. I was looking first at the raw numbers. I expected Nicholson to be up there (Tydus had a tough stretch in the middle of the season), but was a bit surprised to see Berry and Beran as the next two highest. Might be overly biased by Ty's cold stretch late in the season. I suppose Chase and Boo play so many minutes that by definition they are going to be close to the median - but it still is nice to see that there isn't a significant dropoff when either goes to the bench. Boo scores a bit better than Chase in terms of team value.

Thanks for circulating.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Thanks. I was looking first at the raw numbers. I expected Nicholson to be up there (Tydus had a tough stretch in the middle of the season), but was a bit surprised to see Berry and Beran as the next two highest. Might be overly biased by Ty's cold stretch late in the season. I suppose Chase and Boo play so many minutes that by definition they are going to be close to the median - but it still is nice to see that there isn't a significant dropoff when either goes to the bench. Boo scores a bit better than Chase in terms of team value.

Thanks for circulating.

You might find this interesting... Its the Pts For/Against ratio for every two man combo... 21 Big Ten games.

	Beran	Buie	Barney	Audige	Matt N.	Tydus	Berry	Nick M	Roper
Beran	1.034	1.051	1.051	1.028	1.048	0.957	1.067	0.819	1.054
Buie	1.051	1.022	1.016	1.014	1.059	0.951	1.056	1.000	0.951
Barney	1.067	1.016	1.019	1.037	1.064	0.964	1.036	1.068	0.906
Audige	1.028	1.028	1.037	1.015	1.016	0.963	1.042	1.019	0.932
Matt N.	1.048	1.059	1.064	1.016	1.050	---	1.093	0.974	1.073
Tydus	0.957	0.951	0.964	0.963	---	0.955	0.939	1.138	0.797
Berry	1.067	1.056	1.036	1.042	1.093	0.939	1.042	1.019	1.054
Nick M	0.819	1.000	1.068	1.019	0.974	1.138	1.019	1.015	---
Roper	1.054	0.951	0.906	0.932	1.073	0.797	1.054	---	0.960

According to Evan Miya, our best 5 man lineup for the season was Nicholson/Beran/Barnhizer/Audige/Buie.
This was a lineup that I liked a lot early in the season, because it gave us a true "small forward" in Barnhizer, instead of the 3 guard approach. Unfortunately, that lineup has only played something like 75 possessions.

Some hidden trios...
Buie/Berry/Nicholson 489-437 in about 289 minutes. Thats a 67.7 - 60.5 pace over 40 minutes.
Nicholson/Barnhizer/Martinelli 96-87 in 55 minutes, a 70.2 - 63.6 pace
Verhoeven/Barnhizer/Martinelli 116-101 in 69 minutes, a 67.1 - 58.4 pace.

Importantly, the starting lineup, Nicholson/Beran/Berry/Audige/Buie is 274-258 for the season in 171 minutes, which is a 1.062 ratio of NU pts/Opponent points at a 64.0 - 60.25 pace... and the reason I always ask why Coach Collins doesn't play them together more.

 

[wicker]

so a finalist for DPOY is minus-58?

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

so a finalist for DPOY is minus-58?

Defense doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. Audige creates a lot of bad shots for the opponents and creates steals for his teammates. When Audige tips a pass and a teammate corrals it… the teammate gets credited for the steal. With how the adjusted +\- works that penalizes Audige. Also on offense you boosted for scoring at an efficient rate and penalized for missing shots. So that hurts Audige in this metric as well. The metric supports players who show up on the stat sheet and shoot well.