Go for it. Don’t kick the FG

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I’d rather give the Terps a long field and try to ice the game than go up 13, especially if you can’t kick the ball deep and punting isn’t capable. The Terps were struggling to finish drives. Make them go the distance.

Now the Cats aren’t in a good position with 3:32 left.

You could see this coming a mile away.

 

[GrandRapidsCatFan]

Fortunately the Terps did not see Coco Azema coming

 

[BosCat]

Fortunately the Terps did not see Coco Azema coming

 

[NUCat320]

That field goal definitely changed the endgame. It was a gutsy call with good reasons for either decision — but Braun’s turned out to be the right one.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I’d rather give the Terps a long field and try to ice the game than go up 13, especially if you can’t kick the ball deep and punting isn’t capable. The Terps were struggling to finish drives. Make them go the distance.

Now the Cats aren’t in a good position with 3:32 left.

You could see this coming a mile away.

I didn’t like the third down call at all. Would rather run the ball and at least burn another 40 seconds or force a TO, or seal it with a TD.

 

[JoeWildcat]

I didn’t like the third down call at all. Would rather run the ball and at least burn another 40 seconds or force a TO, or seal it.

Exactly.

 

[corbi296]

I didn’t like the third down call at all. Would rather run the ball and at least burn another 40 seconds or force a TO, or seal it.

If you are going to not go for it on 4th down, then you try to score by running the ball and keep the clockrunning. I would like to see a a few sprint option calls with Sullivan and Himon in the backfield.

 

[phatcat]

If you are going to not go for it on 4th down, then you try to score by running the ball and keep the clockrunning. I would like to see a a few sprint option calls with Sullivan and Himon in the backfield.

It was half a yard. Sullivan was limping. Maybe put lausch under center and go for a quarterback sneak

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

It was half a yard. Sullivan was limping. Maybe put lausch under center and go for a quarterback sneak

Our center/guard combo isn’t very good.

 

[phatcat]

Our center/guard combo isn’t very good.

I was mostly talking about the third down debacle. That was a bad looking play

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

I didn’t like the third down call at all. Would rather run the ball and at least burn another 40 seconds or force a TO, or seal it.

Agreed.

If you were going to kick the FG on 4th down (which I don’t believe moves the needle in terms of increasing your chances to win), you absolutely have bleed some more clock on 3rd down.

 

[thewildcat2011]

It was half a yard. Sullivan was limping. Maybe put lausch under center and go for a quarterback sneak

You guys are talking about different plays/scenarios. The OP and corbi are talking about when we were up 30-20, with 4th and goal at the 6. You’re talking about when it was 27-20 with 4th and goal at the 1.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Agreed.

If you were going to kick the FG on 4th down (which I don’t believe moves the needle in terms of increasing your chances to win), you absolutely have bleed some more clock on 3rd down.

Kicking the field goal to get to 33-20 was a 95.5% to 98.3% increase in win probability. So I guess a slight needle move.

 

[wildcatpn]

Kicking the field goal to get to 33-20 was a 95.5% to 98.3% increase in win probability. So I guess a slight needle move.

And if they go for it on 4th and fail it becomes 30-27(assuming Maryland still drives down and scores which it did pretty easily post kickoff after the field goal). And then Maryland has a chance to tie with a FG and maybe the pick by Coco never happens because they probably would’ve played it different knowing they only needed to get into field goal range to tie.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Kicking the field goal to get to 33-20 was a 95.5% to 98.3% increase in win probability. So I guess a slight needle move.

Yeah, going to from 10 to 13 will usually gain some win%, but the odds were high NU was going to win regardless. In my mind, the 2.8% is pretty negligible. Pushing that probability out to basically 100% with a TD would have been the real net gain.

Note that win percentage doesn’t factor NU’s issues on kickoff and punt. In the event of a failed 4th down, the field position advantage for NU’s defense helps offset the 3 points sacrificed. The extra time Maryland would need to spend moving the ball into a position to score should be considered as well. Keep in mind the clock no longer stops on the first down until the 2 minute mark. It’s likely that the consequences of the rule change are still not entirely known and fresh enough to not have truly entered into coaches collective thinking.

As Anthony Herron stated on the broadcast, analytics probably tell you to go for it there.

 

[thewildcat2011]

And if they go for it on 4th and fail it becomes 30-27(assuming Maryland still drives down and scores which it did pretty easily post kickoff after the field goal). And then Maryland has a chance to tie with a FG and maybe the pick by Coco never happens because they probably would’ve played it different knowing they only needed to get into field goal range to tie.

I agree. I supported both of the FGs in the late stages. Forcing them to have to get 2 TDs was major.

 

[FanatiCat]

And if they go for it on 4th and fail it becomes 30-27(assuming Maryland still drives down and scores which it did pretty easily post kickoff after the field goal). And then Maryland has a chance to tie with a FG and maybe the pick by Coco never happens because they probably would’ve played it different knowing they only needed to get into field goal range to tie.

However if they failed on 4th and goal MD would have started its drive on their 6 yard line or maybe closer. Instead they started on their 39 yard line after the kickoff. That’s a pretty big field position swing that saved them a lot of time, when they could still go ahead with a TD even after the FG.

 

[wildcatpn]

However if they failed on 4th and goal MD would have started its drive on their 6 yard line or maybe closer. Instead they started on their 39 yard line after the kickoff. That’s a pretty big field position swing that saved them a lot of time, when they could still go ahead with a TD even after the FG.

Very true. Just my opinion but I’m way more comfortable knowing a team has to score 2 TDs instead of a TD and FG with 5 minutes left. Especially knowing they have all of their TO’s left and also knowing that NU will be very conservative on offense the rest of the way which means Maryland will probably get 2 more possessions.

 

[thewildcat2011]

Yeah, going to from 10 to 13 will usually gain some win%, but the odds were high NU was going to win regardless. In my mind, the 2.8% is pretty negligible. Pushing that probability out to basically 100% with a TD would have been the real net gain.

Note that win percentage doesn’t factor NU’s issues on kickoff and punt. In the event of a failed 4th down, the field position advantage for NU’s defense helps offset the 3 points sacrificed. The extra time Maryland would need to spend moving the ball into a position to score should be considered as well. Remember the clock no longer stops on the first down until the 2 minute mark. It’s likely that the consequences of the rule change is still fresh enough to not have truly entered into coaches collective thinking.

As Anthony Herron stated on the broadcast, analytics probably tell you to go for it there.

Points are good. More points are better than fewer points. I think the the analytics are telling you to score points.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Points are good. More points are better than fewer points. I think the the analytics are telling you to score points.

I agree.

That’s why you try to score a touchdown instead of kicking a FG.

All the other stuff just points out why if that decision fails, it’s not as bad as one might initially think (further encouraging the decision to go for it in the first place).

 

[thewildcat2011]

I agree.

That’s why you try to score a touchdown instead of kicking a FG.

All the other stuff just points out why if that decision fails, it’s not as bad as one might initially think (further encouraging the decision to go for it in the first place).

In your scenario, we are up 3 instead of 6 going into the final MD drive. In my opinion, that lets MD play the last drive a lot
Differently because they only need an FG. They are calling different plays with different calculus if only down 3. I think Braun made the right calls.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

In your scenario, we are up 3 instead of 6 going into the final MD drive. In my opinion, that lets MD play the last drive a lot
Differently because they only need an FG. They are calling different plays with different calculus if only down 3. I think Braun made the right calls.

That could have been the result and if it were guaranteed to play out in the exact same way, even though the circumstances (field position/game clock) were different, I can buy kicking. The thing is, it wouldn’t play out the exact same way.

The ‘Cats could have still been up 10 after having scored a touchdown instead of a FG. If NU doesn’t convert on 4th down, Maryland could have very well failed to score an ensuing touchdown as needing to drive 92 yards instead of 59 may have resulted in the Terps settling for a FG or turning over the ball on downs. At the very least, it’s almost guaranteed more game time would have elapsed.

One of the most football-ey things out there is “it was the right call because we won”. Not trying to bag on Braun…I’m thrilled with what he’s done with the program to this point. I just think it’s pretty clear the decision to kick was suboptimal, particularly when you consider NU didn’t maximize the amount of time they could bleed off the clock prior to kicking.

 

[CappyNU]

Per the 4th-down decision bot, given the time and situation, the analytics saw little difference in the choice. Yes, a touchdown essentially puts the game away, but given the much lower likelihood of success it's a tossup.

 

[TheC]

Per the 4th-down decision bot, given the time and situation, the analytics saw little difference in the choice. Yes, a touchdown essentially puts the game away, but given the much lower likelihood of success it's a tossup.

So, I admit I don't understand all the analytics, but if the Win % is that similar, then I'd think the Success % would become the most relevant factor here. Looking at the numbers, it sure seems like FG is the way to go. Plus, I also think - analytics aside - you have to know your team. I don't have much confidence we could get in from a yard anytime we want, so I was totally in favor of getting the easy points.

 

[hdhntr1]

Which one? It

Agreed.

If you were going to kick the FG on 4th down (which I don’t believe moves the needle in terms of increasing your chances to win), you absolutely have bleed some more clock on 3rd down.

it was on the 4th and half yard, it put us up by two scores. The second one put us up 6 which changed it from FG to tie to TD needed but it with extra point would win

 

[hdhntr1]

Yeah, going to from 10 to 13 will usually gain some win%, but the odds were high NU was going to win regardless. In my mind, the 2.8% is pretty negligible. Pushing that probability out to basically 100% with a TD would have been the real net gain.

Note that win percentage doesn’t factor NU’s issues on kickoff and punt. In the event of a failed 4th down, the field position advantage for NU’s defense helps offset the 3 points sacrificed. The extra time Maryland would need to spend moving the ball into a position to score should be considered as well. Keep in mind the clock no longer stops on the first down until the 2 minute mark. It’s likely that the consequences of the rule change are still not entirely known and fresh enough to not have truly entered into coaches collective thinking.

As Anthony Herron stated on the broadcast, analytics probably tell you to go for it there.

Still have a hard time understanding how when they ran a play (completed short play that did not stop clock as it did not go for a 1st down) and then ran another deep play only 20 seconds elapsed. Went fro 1:18 to 0:58 with those two plays. Seemed like more time should have passed than 20 seconds

 

[pschatz25]

Just to get everyone on the same page (per ESPN):

NU took over with 13:54 left in the 4th leading 27-20. This Northwestern drive featured the long pass to Henning and the MD unsportsmanlike on goal to go. NU kicked a FG on 4th and goal from the 1 to go up 30-20 with 9:19 left.

MD went three and out.

NU took over with 8:10 left in the 4th leading 30-20. This Northwestern drive featured the short pass and long run for Himon and the 'disputed' incomplete pass to Henning on 3rd and goal. NU kicked a FG on 4th and goal from the 11 after a delay of game penalty to go up 33-20 with 5:03 left.

The inability to get a back-breaking TD in both cases was frustrating. Really the whole second half on offense was frustrating except for like three plays.

 

[TheC]

Just to get everyone on the same page (per ESPN):

NU took over with 13:54 left in the 4th leading 27-20. This Northwestern drive featured the long pass to Henning and the MD unsportsmanlike on goal to go. NU kicked a FG on 4th and goal from the 1 to go up 30-20 with 9:19 left.

MD went three and out.

NU took over with 8:10 left in the 4th leading 30-20. This Northwestern drive featured the short pass and long run for Himon and the 'disputed' incomplete pass to Henning on 3rd and goal. NU kicked a FG on 4th and goal from the 11 after a delay of game penalty to go up 33-20 with 5:03 left.

The inability to get a back-breaking TD in both cases was frustrating. Really the whole second half on offense was frustrating except for like three plays.

I think you hit on the truly important point. As wonderful as that game was and as good as the offensive explosion felt, the reality is that it was more a first-half explosion. We were pretty much shutdown in that second half except for the one big screen pass.

I want to dream big, but I worry that Sully is in for a world of hurt against Iowa. Iowa is a serious defense. Maryland clearly is not.

 

[hdhntr1]

I think you hit on the truly important point. As wonderful as that game was and as good as the offensive explosion felt, the reality is that it was more a first-half explosion. We were pretty much shutdown in that second half except for the one big screen pass.

I want to dream big, but I worry that Sully is in for a world of hurt against Iowa. Iowa is a serious defense. Maryland clearly is not.

Not after we put 33 on them. Going into the game, they were giving up about 18ppg