Win that game, we're 2-1 with the tiebreaker over Iowa and our own destiny solidly in hand.
Lose that game, we're 1-2, two games out, and losing the tiebreaker to Iowa. We'd effectively be eliminated, needing to make up 3 games on Iowa in 6 weeks.
That doesn't mean we're guaranteed anything if we beat Iowa, nor does it mean that we can't still go to a very nice bowl game if we lose. But if we want to reassert ourselves as contenders, this is the game.
Lose that game, we're 1-2, two games out, and losing the tiebreaker to Iowa. We'd effectively be eliminated, needing to make up 3 games on Iowa in 6 weeks.
That doesn't mean we're guaranteed anything if we beat Iowa, nor does it mean that we can't still go to a very nice bowl game if we lose. But if we want to reassert ourselves as contenders, this is the game.