It’s time to move on from Collins

[catfans5]

Certainly your prerogative. I don’t see such calamity. I disagree with the football comparisons - we really can’t expect to get the very FEW elite players that make up a basketball team. In football, it’s many more pieces and dependently hugely on schemes; a few guys have less impact. And it’s hard to compare to Fitz; he’s an absolute gem. It’s a long-term play for Collins, and I at least go into games during his tenure knowing we have a much better chance of winning than in the Carmody years. And I think that chance will increase more.

I do not know where you live, but I actually pony up some money and go to the games. I think it is about 15 years. I live about 35 minutes from the arena. Picking up a buddy, getting to the game, staying there, and getting home is a 4 hour experience. I go to all the games. I have seen Central Connecticut State, Mississippi Valley State, and Chicago State play every time except once. I have seen some good basketball and a lot of bad basketball. A loyal, paying customer.

I have heard and read posts about the ballyhooed recruits for years. Folks like you say, “Look at the 4 star recruits he has. The recruiting is better.”or “The B10 is so tough.” The B10 has not won an NCAA in over 20 years. It is the same crap lines every year. We have one 4 star on this squad who either just can’t play or has not been coached to develop his talent. It is either an inability to spot talent or develop talent, otherwise known as coaching. Our tourney team was full of players who were tough, smart players with some leaders. CC rang the bell on them, but IMO, he has missed badly ever since then in either talent identification or development. It is pretty plain to see.

Last year before Corona, WRA was empty. I know. I was there. Were you? CC is 8 years in. The NCAA shoukd have led to better teams. It has not. This could be a function of the university admission process, facilitaties or coaching. The only benefit of season tickets is to see other teams play and you can get B10 tournament tickets. That is where the program stands in year 8 of CC. As a long time, paying season ticket holder, I see little reason to renew, exceptto get B10 tourney tix.

 

[NUChicago]

I do not know where you live, but I actually pony up some money and go to the games. I think it is about 15 years. I live about 35 minutes from the arena. Picking up a buddy, getting to the game, staying there, and getting home is a 4 hour experience. I go to all the games. I have seen Central Connecticut State, Mississippi Valley State, and Chicago State play every time except once. I have seen some good basketball and a lot of bad basketball. A loyal, paying customer.

I have heard and read posts about the ballyhooed recruits for years. Folks like you say, “Look at the 4 star recruits he has. The recruiting is better.”or “The B10 is so tough.” The B10 has not won an NCAA in over 20 years. It is the same crap lines every year. We have one 4 star on this squad who either just can’t play or has not been coached to develop his talent. It is either an inability to spot talent or develop talent, otherwise known as coaching. Our tourney team was full of players who were tough, smart players with some leaders. CC rang the bell on them, but IMO, he has missed badly ever since then in either talent identification or development. It is pretty plain to see.

Last year before Corona, WRA was empty. I know. I was there. Were you? CC is 8 years in. The NCAA shoukd have led to better teams. It has not. This could be a function of the university admission process, facilitaties or coaching. The only benefit of season tickets is to see other teams play and you can get B10 tournament tickets. That is where the program stands in year 8 of CC. As a long time, paying season ticket holder, I see little reason to renew, exceptto get B10 tourney tix.

Unfortunately this goes for me as well. Football season ticket holder since 1998. We are also basketball ST holders since the upgrade (but attended at least half the home games via single game tickets) over the past 15 years. I have about a four to four and a half hour commitment as well on game days, so I need to make some decisions for next year as this is just a waste of time.

 

[jne381]

I hope the team can make a run in the second half of the Big Ten Schedule, but it appears they are really playing uninspired ball right now. If Collins can't get something going this year, and the program stays flat next year, I can't see him making it to the 22-23 season. I want to have faith in the program, and give Collins the time to make it happen, but there has to be a point where you can't just keep going and finish around the bottom of the conference year after year.

 

[zeek55]

You can argue that the Big Ten is tougher right now than it has ever been, but that's not a valid excuse 8 years in... Ultimately you're judged on wins and losses. And we haven't come close to a 0.500 record in the Big Ten and another NCAA bid in the past 4 years.

Comparing football to basketball often doesn't make sense because the basketball side of the Big Ten and the football side are in completely different places. But we do provide the resources to win at the highest level, and the expectations should be there. What's the point of spending $150+ million on WRA and Trienens if we're not going to expect "regular" postseason NCAA/NIT bids (or at least show progress towards breakout years regularly)?

You can compare Fitz and Collins though. Fitz is one of the very top college football coaches in the country. He's mentioned in connection with NFL openings every season. A lot of "bigger brand" football programs would take Fitz in a heartbeat.
Collins is not seen as being on that level.

The reality is, we probably do need a coach who's one of the very best in the country to be more competitive.

With a new AD, there likely will be a lot more pressure on CC to get us back on the path towards the postseason by 2023 at the latest.

 

[freewillie07]

You can argue that the Big Ten is tougher right now than it has ever been, but that's not a valid excuse 8 years in... Ultimately you're judged on wins and losses. And we haven't come close to a 0.500 record in the Big Ten and another NCAA bid in the past 4 years.

Comparing football to basketball often doesn't make sense because the basketball side of the Big Ten and the football side are in completely different places. But we do provide the resources to win at the highest level, and the expectations should be there. What's the point of spending $150+ million on WRA and Trienens if we're not going to expect "regular" postseason NCAA/NIT bids (or at least show progress towards breakout years regularly)?

You can compare Fitz and Collins though. Fitz is one of the very top college football coaches in the country. He's mentioned in connection with NFL openings every season. A lot of "bigger brand" football programs would take Fitz in a heartbeat.
Collins is not seen as being on that level.

The reality is, we probably do need a coach who's one of the very best in the country to be more competitive.

With a new AD, there likely will be a lot more pressure on CC to get us back on the path towards the postseason by 2023 at the latest.

Genuine question: Is there any consensus expectation that the Big Ten will be “easier” next season? Obviously all the top teams will reload with great freshmen, but will there be a big outflow of senior stars?

I ask because NU obviously loses potentially no one from this year and adds three promising freshman (who can at least provide depth).

Our only hope seems to be that we tread water in terms of talent level and seniority wins the day.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I do not know where you live, but I actually pony up some money and go to the games. I think it is about 15 years. I live about 35 minutes from the arena. Picking up a buddy, getting to the game, staying there, and getting home is a 4 hour experience. I go to all the games. I have seen Central Connecticut State, Mississippi Valley State, and Chicago State play every time except once. I have seen some good basketball and a lot of bad basketball. A loyal, paying customer.

I have heard and read posts about the ballyhooed recruits for years. Folks like you say, “Look at the 4 star recruits he has. The recruiting is better.”or “The B10 is so tough.” The B10 has not won an NCAA in over 20 years. It is the same crap lines every year. We have one 4 star on this squad who either just can’t play or has not been coached to develop his talent. It is either an inability to spot talent or develop talent, otherwise known as coaching. Our tourney team was full of players who were tough, smart players with some leaders. CC rang the bell on them, but IMO, he has missed badly ever since then in either talent identification or development. It is pretty plain to see.

Last year before Corona, WRA was empty. I know. I was there. Were you? CC is 8 years in. The NCAA shoukd have led to better teams. It has not. This could be a function of the university admission process, facilitaties or coaching. The only benefit of season tickets is to see other teams play and you can get B10 tournament tickets. That is where the program stands in year 8 of CC. As a long time, paying season ticket holder, I see little reason to renew, exceptto get B10 tourney tix.

Your points are an extension of the issue at hand, which was/is - is Collins all to blame / should he be fired? (To your other others points - I live in CT, so I cannot attend games in person, but I pony up money each year for both teams because I have always strongly believed that the NU approach to D1 college athletics is the best, bar none. Speaking of CT, I have lived through the Hartford Whalers. The only time the Hartford Civic Center was full was when they were consistently winning / vying for a division title. Otherwise, it’s just like any smaller market (ie school) - not in the average human’s nature to fight through the disappointment and support a team that does not win). All of the program’s issues are real, and only consistently winning like the football team will alleviate it; and likely not fully as we know. But, I applaud your devotion to the program over the years and wish we had more of you. And I wish my wife would agree to move to Chicago again so I could join you. (I lived in Naperville for two years during the NIT season with Pat Baldwin Sr. and had season tickets. Here, I’ve been to Salt Lake City, Rutgers, Ft. Myers, NYC, BC, Brown, Mohegan Sun and other places to watch them over the years).

Back to the issue of Collins. Who could realistically be hired and do markedly better (i.e., both rightfully attempt to change the entire dynamic of the program, and then make it a consistent winner)? As I’ve said in other posts - he has adjusted our style of play to get the recruits we must get. That involves more personal freedom and responsibility and some guys just don’t quite have the comparable talent or haven’t learned / refined it yet. (I disagree with posts that say he doesn’t react to their failings - you can see it on the court). He is banking on that, has the administration’s support, and recruiting rankings bear it out. But our rankings are still not better than others, and as I said, it’s not football and he’s not Fitz. Carmody tried to fit a square peg into a round hole and, because he was such a great coach, almost pulled the NCAAs off and gave us some fun times. Collins is trying to stay with his long-term approach and despite the often frustrating limitations of our present players, I am personally not about to give up on it yet. But, to your point, your commitment of time is greater, and I appreciate there is a tipping point.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

You're a great fan and the Hartford Whalers' logo remains at the peak of timeless logo excellence.

As frustrating as it is to watch the hoops team play and as much as I believe this team should be better by now, I believe we should stick to the plan.

Fitz improved his game day coaching in his second decade and momentum continues. Let's see how Collins does over at least a few more years.

My biggest issue with this team is they are not hungry enough. When they fly, they fly private. The facilities are impeccable. Their access to medical care and academic support is unsurpassed. Where do they acquire the grit and drive to push through the struggles they are encountering? Struggles they rarely encountered, if ever, prior to playing at NU? This is why Pound the Rock is so important as a mantra. They need someone within this team to ignite the fire within.

 

[zeek55]

Genuine question: Is there any consensus expectation that the Big Ten will be “easier” next season? Obviously all the top teams will reload with great freshmen, but will there be a big outflow of senior stars?

I ask because NU obviously loses potentially no one from this year and adds three promising freshman (who can at least provide depth).

Our only hope seems to be that we tread water in terms of talent level and seniority wins the day.

I doubt the Big Ten will be easier; sure you have some old teams like Wisconsin around, and the likely 3-5 great players go early to hit the NBA draft. But there should be a lot of reloading around the league.

Take a team like Rutgers for example. Pikiell has them performing at a high level. I expect that to continue even if somebody like Ron Harper Jr. goes to the draft, they're bringing in better talent and looking like a team ready to regularly challenge the middle of the conference.

Of course, their 2020-2021 season so far looks a lot like ours. Strong start, and now a lot of tough conference losses.

I do think Collins will get at least another 2 years to show some sort of progress. But there has to be progress at the end of the day.

CC is sort of in the same position as Harbaugh up there at Michigan in football. I know the comparison isn't exact, but we really don't want to fire CC. TPTB at Northwestern want CC to work out badly. Why? Because it's not at all clear who would do a better a job or be able to do a better job that's reasonably attainable.

And that's why Michigan reworked Harbaugh's contract and gave him another year. We might end up doing the same with CC in 2 years. Give him a new contract with a very low buyout.

 

[GeauxCatsGeaux]

I don't understand why recruiting in basketball would be harder than football. To me, the Big Ten is only "too tough" because we're doing a bad job. Is Iowa a blue blood basketball program? I understand academic restrictions, but, just like in football, our offer lists include players that could win us a Big Ten title. If Collins lands PBJ, his job is probably safe. Otherwise, he gets next year in my book to convince the fans and the new AD that this is going in the right direction.

 

[NUCat320]

As I’ve said in other posts - he has adjusted our style of play to get the recruits we must get. That involves more personal freedom and responsibility and some guys just don’t quite have the comparable talent or haven’t learned / refined it yet. (I disagree with posts that say he doesn’t react to their failings - you can see it on the court). He is banking on that, has the administration’s support, and recruiting rankings bear it out. But our rankings are still not better than others, and as I said, it’s not football and he’s not Fitz. Carmody tried to fit a square peg into a round hole and, because he was such a great coach, almost pulled the NCAAs off and gave us some fun times. Collins is trying to stay with his long-term approach and despite the often frustrating limitations of our present players, I am personally not about to give up on it yet. But, to your point, your commitment of time is greater, and I appreciate there is a tipping point.

I disagree with the idea that he fits his style of play to his talents.

1. In general, NU is less talented than its opponents. We can quibble what defines ‘talent’, but, in conference games, I’d usually prefer the other team’s roster to NU’s.

This dictates fewer possessions, not more.

2. As part of this up-and-down strategy, NU is going a bit smaller. This means that Young, who is definitely among the five best players on the roster, but is seventh on the team in minutes so that Nance can play as the stretch five.

(Rereading — you actually wrote the style has been adjusted to the players we ‘must’ get. Which is to say, he’s playing fast to convince future recruits that NU plays fast, rather than coaching to maximize to current talent to show future recruits that NU can *win*?)

 

[phatcat]

Every year we read about Collins’ latest great recruiting class. Then they show up and, for whatever reason, do not develop. I am not going to waste my time trying to analyze why this happens anymore. At some point, you are what your record says you are. And I don’t have the energy to care much anymore. I check the scores, not much changes and I move on.

A fellow Idahoan here - agree completely. I tend to shrug at the great recruiting reports because nothing comes of them.
He's not Barnett. Let's not pretend he is.

 

[IdahoAlum]

I think the main issue right now — as outlined in several posts above — is people are losing interest in the program. I have a hard time watching any NU games. Posters above talked about empty arenas (pre-Covid) and making decisions on season tickets. When people stop caring about your program, you’re in big trouble. That will be the first issue the new AD will have to confront.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I disagree with the idea that he fits his style of play to his talents.

1. In general, NU is less talented than its opponents. We can quibble what defines ‘talent’, but, in conference games, I’d usually prefer the other team’s roster to NU’s.

This dictates fewer possessions, not more.

2. As part of this up-and-down strategy, NU is going a bit smaller. This means that Young, who is definitely among the five best players on the roster, but is seventh on the team in minutes so that Nance can play as the stretch five.

(Rereading — you actually wrote the style has been adjusted to the players we ‘must’ get. Which is to say, he’s playing fast to convince future recruits that NU plays fast, rather than coaching to maximize to current talent to show future recruits that NU can *win*?)

I agree the Nance / Young issue is evolving. Both played together last night for at least one stretch. I hope Collins does it more.

Yes - recruits will be attracted to this style. And to SimpsonElwood’s post, I want to give him more time to fully refine his coaching of them. There are not many young super-successful Power5 BB coaches that I am aware of.

 

[phatcat]

Winston Churchill lost in a landslide, a month after Germany surrendered.
I reckon it's ok to cut Collins loose, in spite of "all he's done for us" getting us to the tourney.
What have you done for us lately?

Looking at it another way - a tremendous improvement is needed to get NU to middle of the pack. Not top 4, maybe 9th or so

 

[NUCat320]

I agree the Nance / Young issue is evolving. Both played together last night for at least one stretch. I hope Collins does it more.

Yes - recruits will be attracted to this style. And to SimpsonElwood’s post, I want to give him more time to fully refine his coaching of them. There are not many young super-successful Power5 BB coaches that I am aware of.

I’m not sure age can be an excuse. Dude had 13 seasons under an all-time great coach. He’s got seven years at his current role, the ear of a longtime nba head coach whenever he wants it, and a longtime nba assistant sitting in the chair next to him.

Juwan Howard is a year months older, has far less coaching experience, and has a top ten team.

Several in the conference have a decade plus on Collins, but he is very similar in age to several:

Matt Painter is only four years older, which is shocking.
Greg Gard - four years older
Chris Holtmann - three years older
Fred Hoiberg - two years older
Juwan Howard - one year older
Archie Miller - three years younger
Richard Pitino - four years younger

Among current top ten teams, only Texas’ Shaka Smart is younger.


Playing the style you hope you can play is so foolish, if that’s what’s happening (I don’t think it is — I think he’s playing small because he thinks it’s the best lineup).

 

[SDakaGordie]

I’m not sure age can be an excuse. Dude had 13 seasons under an all-time great coach. He’s got seven years at his current role, the ear of a longtime nba head coach whenever he wants it, and a longtime nba assistant sitting in the chair next to him.

Juwan Howard is a year months older, has far less coaching experience, and has a top ten team.

Several in the conference have a decade plus on Collins, but he is very similar in age to several:

Matt Painter is only four years older, which is shocking.
Greg Gard - four years older
Chris Holtmann - three years older
Fred Hoiberg - two years older
Juwan Howard - one year older
Archie Miller - three years younger
Richard Pitino - four years younger

Among current top ten teams, only Texas’ Shaka Smart is younger.


Playing the style you hope you can play is so foolish, if that’s what’s happening (I don’t think it is — I think he’s playing small because he thinks it’s the best lineup).

Fair points, but the main points of posts get pushed back and forth on this board. I’ve said before it’s much more our talent, not his coaching. Of course they are related, but his challenge is mighty to markedly improve talent. We played Penn State close because of our similar talent. If you think someone can bring in more talent and also have better coaching, then that’s fair. But how realistic is that? He seems like he has great support in many circles and I personally am in that camp for at least another year or two at a minimum.

 

[catfans5]

Winston Churchill lost in a landslide, a month after Germany surrendered.
I reckon it's ok to cut Collins loose, in spite of "all he's done for us" getting us to the tourney.
What have you done for us lately?

Looking at it another way - a tremendous improvement is needed to get NU to middle of the pack. Not top 4, maybe 9th or so

Unfortunately, what have you done for me lately are the rules of the day. I think it is harder to recruit bball than football since you need a big 3 or 60 % of your starters. The NCAA team had it with Vic, Mac, and Scottie/Pardon who showed up every night. Just do not see it with this squad.

Further, Exhibit A of good coaching making up for talent deficiencies was Hank on the football program. Our assistant who coaches the bigs and the end game plays is tremendous. The main question is the coaching otherwise. Iowa, Wiscy, Minny, Mi, Purdue, Minny, Illannoy, MSU and OSU all use big men to put pressure on the paint. This opens up the game. If you noticed last night, Young went inside to stop a PSU run. Nance had some good plays. I will agree that we may not the caliber big man of those teams, but it is pretty obvious to me, color commentators, and B10 coaches that CC, even though he has some success inside, will stay with his 5 men on the perimeter offense which can be defended since our players cannot shoot and will throw up stupid shots.

It is player development, recruiting, shot selection and the lack of adapting which points directly to the coach. Based on my above post which details over 15 years or more of slogging to games, the patience is wearing out. When I mention in other posts that I switch to the Hallmark Channel during the blowouts, I really do. It is a sign of apathy from a long time fan. I do not think I am alone.

 

[GatoLouco]

The B1G as an excuse. What a load of crap. Sure it’s tough. It was very tough last year. And this year you can go to Lansing minus Simpson and Tillman. Minneapolis minus Oturu, Columbus minus Wesson, State College minus Stevens, College Park minus Cowan and Smith, Ann Arbor minus Teske... all NBA(ish) talent.

Not sure this year there’s as much NBA(ish) talent. Maybe there is. Point is it was tough last year, it will probably be tough next year. We can either compete or we can’t. Personally I’m not even totally convinced the conference is tougher than last year. Rankings will say it is. But possible that’s due to other top conferences just being worse than last year.

If CC had missed the tournament would we have as many people still so adamantly on his bandwagon? Definitely not. That bought it a boat load of credit. But at some point it expires.

I supported NU through O’Neil, through Carmody. Found it easier to support it through BC than now. Not because of BC himself, but because the institution was clearly happy with the status quo, at least through most of his tenure. Things changed, no college invests that many millions in facilities to just try to not be embarrassed in the conference. So the expectations have to be higher.

Just imagine having gone through this 7 years. Same record but having missed the tourney. Having spent millions and millions raising the profile of the sports programs. You’d probably have a very distinct feeling about CC.

End of 21/22, don’t know how you keep him if he does not make the tourney.

 

[SDakaGordie]

In terms of expectations, has anyone ever reviewed the average point spread of games (prior to the outcome) in the Carmody vs. Collins years, and even within the Collins years? I’d be curious what the Vegas experts think about our expectations and how they have trended. My sense is our average spreads are lower recently. And that shows at least some sign of progress. Carmody was such an unbelievable coach that he exceeded those expectations. IMHO, Collins is solid, but not Carmody, of course.

 

[willycat]

In terms of expectations, has anyone ever reviewed the average point spread of games (prior to the outcome) in the Carmody vs. Collins years, and even within the Collins years? I’d be curious what the Vegas experts think about our expectations and how they have trended. My sense is our average spreads are lower recently. And that shows at least some sign of progress. Carmody was such an unbelievable coach that he exceeded those expectations. IMHO, Collins is solid, but not Carmody, of course.

Thankfully he's not. he actually shows up when potential recruits visit .

 

[Styre]

Unfortunately, what have you done for me lately are the rules of the day. I think it is harder to recruit bball than football since you need a big 3 or 60 % of your starters. The NCAA team had it with Vic, Mac, and Scottie/Pardon who showed up every night. Just do not see it with this squad.

That's kind of the point, though - those guys weren't massive, five-star recruits that we stole away from Duke or Kentucky. Collins has recruited many players as well-regarded out of high school as the 2017 core. I agree that it would be very difficult to recruit well enough at NU to win the Big Ten, but it's not impossible to recruit players good enough to simply make the team competitive.

 

[IGNORE2]

Tel this to those 3 stellar recruits we have coming in. Geez Louise.

Or the two ones last year. Or the ones before that. And so forth and so. Talent comes here to die.

 

[IGNORE2]

Every year we read about Collins’ latest great recruiting class. Then they show up and, for whatever reason, do not develop. I am not going to waste my time trying to analyze why this happens anymore. At some point, you are what your record says you are. And I don’t have the energy to care much anymore. I check the scores, not much changes and I move on.

Blame it on admissions...

 

[zeek55]

Also, one other factor for why seats are likely to be hot (especially CC) is the state of the department's budget. The reality is, we can't afford (and neither can anybody else) fan apathy the next few years.

I'd estimate our department's budget is around $30-40 million in the red due to Covid cancellations/reduced sales (i.e. tickets/merch/amenities) and reduced TV revenue.

That means 2021-2022 is very important for getting us back on the path towards normal. And even then we're likely to face significant restrictions on fans in seats for 2021-2022. So the department might face another $10-15 million in losses for next year.

Add that up, and we really can't afford fan apathy past 2022 in a big ticket sport like basketball. CC will have to produce winning teams, and it would not be a surprise at all if his next contract has a very low buyout figure attached.

There has to be some sign of positive progression over the next 2 seasons.

 

[GatoLouco]

In terms of expectations, has anyone ever reviewed the average point spread of games (prior to the outcome) in the Carmody vs. Collins years, and even within the Collins years? I’d be curious what the Vegas experts think about our expectations and how they have trended. My sense is our average spreads are lower recently. And that shows at least some sign of progress. Carmody was such an unbelievable coach that he exceeded those expectations. IMHO, Collins is solid, but not Carmody, of course.

There’s hardly any evidence that Carmody was more than a guy who could implement a PO well. Which served him well for the talent he had, and not only at NU.

I feel if he had the Zion/RJ/Cam team of Duke a couple years ago he’d still run the PO

 

[willycat]

In terms of expectations, has anyone ever reviewed the average point spread of games (prior to the outcome) in the Carmody vs. Collins years, and even within the Collins years? I’d be curious what the Vegas experts think about our expectations and how they have trended. My sense is our average spreads are lower recently. And that shows at least some sign of progress. Carmody was such an unbelievable coach that he exceeded those expectations. IMHO, Collins is solid, but not Carmody, of course.

So where is this great coach, B.C. working?

 

[SDakaGordie]

Or the two ones last year. Or the ones before that. And so forth and so. Talent comes here to die.

Except for virtually all of the players on the NCAA team?

 

[IGNORE2]

Except for virtually all of the players on the NCAA team?

Ok boomer. That was nearly a decade ago. Beyond yesterday’s news.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Ok boomer. That was nearly a decade ago. Beyond yesterday’s news.

Not quite 4 years is a nearly a decade? News to me.

 

[NJCat]

Not quite 4 years is a nearly a decade? News to me.

New math.

 

[phatcat]

Not quite 4 years is a nearly a decade? News to me.

Longer than 4 years to the date they matriculated.

 

[zeek55]

It may be more that he doesn't have the budget to whack him, buying out 3 (?) remaining years of his contract will cost ~$10 Million.....

New AD will have to consider giving CC a Harbaugh-like new contract in 2022. A 5 year deal with a very low buyout number; i.e. a "prove yourself" deal.

 

[peatymeanis]

New AD will have to consider giving CC a Harbaugh-like new contract in 2022. A 5 year deal with a very low buyout number; i.e. a "prove yourself" deal.

Why would Collins take that and give up the guaranteed money on his current contract?

 

[zeek55]

Why would Collins take that and give up the guaranteed money on his current contract?

His contract will likely be down to its final 2 years if/when this would be discussed, so the buyout would likely already have fallen significantly.

I assume he'd prefer to give up some guaranteed money to add some years to the deal. That is a route that a new AD could discuss with him.

 

[rwhitney014]

I do not know where you live, but I actually pony up some money and go to the games. I think it is about 15 years. I live about 35 minutes from the arena. Picking up a buddy, getting to the game, staying there, and getting home is a 4 hour experience. I go to all the games. I have seen Central Connecticut State, Mississippi Valley State, and Chicago State play every time except once. I have seen some good basketball and a lot of bad basketball. A loyal, paying customer.

I have heard and read posts about the ballyhooed recruits for years. Folks like you say, “Look at the 4 star recruits he has. The recruiting is better.”or “The B10 is so tough.” The B10 has not won an NCAA in over 20 years. It is the same crap lines every year. We have one 4 star on this squad who either just can’t play or has not been coached to develop his talent. It is either an inability to spot talent or develop talent, otherwise known as coaching. Our tourney team was full of players who were tough, smart players with some leaders. CC rang the bell on them, but IMO, he has missed badly ever since then in either talent identification or development. It is pretty plain to see.

Last year before Corona, WRA was empty. I know. I was there. Were you? CC is 8 years in. The NCAA shoukd have led to better teams. It has not. This could be a function of the university admission process, facilitaties or coaching. The only benefit of season tickets is to see other teams play and you can get B10 tournament tickets. That is where the program stands in year 8 of CC. As a long time, paying season ticket holder, I see little reason to renew, exceptto get B10 tourney tix.

Not only that, but those of us relegated to the upper deck due to insane donation requirements on top of the ticket prices get to look down on empty fat cat seats or, worse, fat cat seats sold off to Illinois and Iowa fans game after game. At least when it's Mississippi Valley State, we don't have to deal with that.

My take on the program is that our identity forever was "will this be the year?" When we had the year, it was glorious, but we didn't really come up with a new identity to replace it. Even the "Pound the Rock" concept made sense when we trying to make it to the Tournament - keep slamming away because you never know which blow will crack the rock open to a ticket to March - but doesn't make much sense as a metaphor any longer. (The basketball double entendre never did either, because this is the first season we've tried to play with tempo and we haven't done it particularly well outside of the first week.)

Obviously, games aren't won or lost on a mantra. The guard play simply hasn't been good enough. The shooting has generally been atrocious across many years now. I can't remember the last time we scored on an end-of-game scenario. This team's defense feels generally worse than prior Collins rosters. But the team just doesn't score enough. I've written about this before here: losing sucks no matter what, but losses can be exciting when teams are punching back and forth. When you can't make a shot and a 7-point deficit feels insurmountable, there's nothing much to root for, and you end up with a moribund arena that you and I and maybe a couple thousand others have experienced time and again.

I'd love to see Collins turn this around, and I'm guessing he gets one more year after this one to try. But it's a real shame, and the brief December glimpse of what could be somehow makes it sting even more.

 

[peatymeanis]

His contract will likely be down to its final 2 years if/when this would be discussed, so the buyout would likely already have fallen significantly.

I assume he'd prefer to give up some guaranteed money to add some years to the deal. That is a route that a new AD could discuss with him.

Unless the new AD is doing this with the aim of firing him soon after for a cheap buyout, there's no upside for NU. Either Collins can prove he's up to the task this next ~12 months and he deserves a real extension or he can't and he deserves to be fired. Straddling the middle ground is pointless and will please nobody.

 

[NJCat]

Unless the new AD is doing this with the aim of firing him soon after for a cheap buyout, there's no upside for NU. Either Collins can prove he's up to the task this next ~12 months and he deserves a real extension or he can't and he deserves to be fired. Straddling the middle ground is pointless and will please nobody.

Exactly. The difference between Harbaugh and Collins is, Jimbo has been a highly successful head coach at two previous gigs. And he has had UoM in the conversation for the playoffs at least once. Collins doesn't have the pedigree to give confidence that he wil turn NU around. One unicorn year and the rest [meh]. No reason to give him an extension unless things dramatically improve next season. And even then it would be a leap of faith that 2021-22 isn't another outlier.

 

[peatymeanis]

Obviously, games aren't won or lost on a mantra. The guard play simply hasn't been good enough. The shooting has generally been atrocious across many years now. I can't remember the last time we scored on an end-of-game scenario. This team's defense feels generally worse than prior Collins rosters. But the team just doesn't score enough. I've written about this before here: losing sucks no matter what, but losses can be exciting when teams are punching back and forth. When you can't make a shot and a 7-point deficit feels insurmountable, there's nothing much to root for, and you end up with a moribund arena that you and I and maybe a couple thousand others have experienced time and again.

I agree with all of that. And look, it all comes down to talent. The guard play isn't good enough because Collins has struck out on all his guard recruits since BMac. Even a guy like Lathon, who people on this board were heralding before he got his scholarship got pulled, has turned out to be a complete bust. We're lucky he never made it on campus. Guys like Falzon, Rap, etc. all were recruiting misses. Beran is looking to also be a whiff. When a team is consistently unable to score enough to win, that is a talent issue.

For all the claims of Collins recruiting prowess, the fact is that the talent on his teams simply haven't been anywhere near good enough ever since BMac and Pardon graduated. It's not tactics, it's not playcalling. The players simply aren't good.

 

[rwhitney014]

I agree with all of that. And look, it all comes down to talent. The guard play isn't good enough because Collins has struck out on all his guard recruits since BMac. Even a guy like Lathon, who people on this board were heralding before he got his scholarship got pulled, has turned out to be a complete bust. We're lucky he never made it on campus. Guys like Falzon, Rap, etc. all were recruiting misses. Beran is looking to also be a whiff. When a team is consistently unable to score enough to win, that is a talent issue.

For all the claims of Collins recruiting prowess, the fact is that the talent on his teams simply haven't been anywhere near good enough ever since BMac and Pardon graduated. It's not tactics, it's not playcalling. The players simply aren't good.

I’m not going to go after the players. They all play hard, carry themselves well, represent the university well. I don’t think the coaching staff (other than Brian James, who is excellent) puts them in a position to succeed. We’re still running isos at end of game instead of running a play to get the ball to Miller Kopp, one of the best catch-and-shooters in the conference, and a guy who is also very effective at pulling up after one or two dribbles into the midrange. That’s a coaching decision that colors the stats and our impressions of guys like Audige and Buie, who are only doing what they’re being asked to do.

By comparison, remember the game where we almost beat undefeated, #1 Ohio State, when Marcotullio hits a 3 with under 10 seconds to go? OSU gets the ball, immediately gets it down to Sullinger in the post, he wins it for them. Matta made a coaching decision that got his player the ball and won them that game. We consistently try the same thing and never get different results. Just one example.

All of these guys had high-major interest and offers. Obviously every program has its share of guys who don’t pan out for whatever reason, but the bottom line is we’ve had far too many of them. And the coach is the one scouting, offering, developing and playcalling. It is what it is.

 

[peatymeanis]

I’m not going to go after the players. They all play hard, carry themselves well, represent the university well. I don’t think the coaching staff (other than Brian James, who is excellent) puts them in a position to succeed. We’re still running isos at end of game instead of running a play to get the ball to Miller Kopp, one of the best catch-and-shooters in the conference, and a guy who is also very effective at pulling up after one or two dribbles into the midrange. That’s a coaching decision that colors the stats and our impressions of guys like Audige and Buie, who are only doing what they’re being asked to do.

By comparison, remember the game where we almost beat undefeated, #1 Ohio State, when Marcotullio hits a 3 with under 10 seconds to go? OSU gets the ball, immediately gets it down to Sullinger in the post, he wins it for them. Matta made a coaching decision that got his player the ball and won them that game. We consistently try the same thing and never get different results. Just one example.

All of these guys had high-major interest and offers. Obviously every program has its share of guys who don’t pan out for whatever reason, but the bottom line is we’ve had far too many of them. And the coach is the one scouting, offering, developing and playcalling. It is what it is.

I respect what you are saying. I'm not attacking the players character or how they represent the school. I hope they all graduate and go on to do great things in life. Mike Trumpy was once a multi-year starter at RB for NU football. He was a good kid but a big reason why football is now successful is because we're no longer recruiting guys at the talent level of Mike Trumpy.

Collin once looked like a good coach who had a good scheme and could call good plays when he had good players and we were taking it to Gonzaga in the tournament. As you said at the bottom, we've had far too many players not pan out since then. And that's on Collins.