It’s time to move on from Collins

[rwhitney014]

A couple last thoughts for the evening ...

I continue to be pretty blown away that in this seven-page thread I’m pretty sure there's not even two or three acknowledgements of how brutally competitive the conference is. There's absolutely none of the mediocrity of Steve Alford, Dan Monson, Jim O'Brien and Tommy Amaker to help pad records.

If you want to run out Collins in a historically competitive conference, so be it. But let’s stop acting like this is just any other year, and comparing to seasons when Tubby, Lickliter and Ed DeChellis are on the schedule and any team with eight guys had a shot at 4-2.

I'm sure some will read this and think I'm making excuses for Collins. The truth is I don't have a problem with anyone who started questioning the direction this year.

My problem is this is a pretty poor fan base to start with – football school … barely shows up … not a huge donor base … sits on their hands. And for a couple years now, people have gone out of their way to shred the guy who actually completed step A of the project. The build-up results in this - a seven-page thread without a whole lot of perspective.

It simply demonstrates another limit to the program.

It is a very tough conference, but losing to Penn State is awful and hurts the argument that many of us were pinning our hopes on. Steve Pikiell took over a program with a similar history of ineptitude in this conference, also took them to what would have been a tourney bid in Year 4, and has his team a little bit stronger than we are this year so far. If Rutgers backslides to 12th-14th the place for the next 3 seasons, I would not be surprised at all to see Rutgers make a move at that point.

The problem with the thread is that we're writing a season postmortem in the middle of it. But whatever small bit of pressure Collins and staff might be feeling here is 1/100th of what he would be experiencing at just about any other high-major program, so he's benefiting just as much from the ambivalence.

What I'm not sure about is we can either be ambivalent or want more from the program, and either is wrong. I do know that satisfaction with where we've been the last few years isn't the right answer.

 

[peatymeanis]

What I'm not sure about is we can either be ambivalent or want more from the program, and either is wrong. I do know that satisfaction with where we've been the last few years isn't the right answer.

Well I know it makes no sense to blame the fans for being angry or not showing up at games these last two seasons like some are doing in this thread. There is no fan base and there never has been a fan base that is both passionate and is also accepting of continuous blow out losses and extended losing streaks. Fan support comes from being competitive, playing hard, and playing an entertaining style of ball. None of which we have done for some time.

People who want to make excuses for Collins point to the tough competition. And it is indeed tough. But there’s losing and then there’s whatever we are doing. Getting blown out multiple games in a row. Going months without winning a single game. Anyone who is supportive of the garbage we’ve been watching these last two years is nothing but a masochist. Enjoy eating dogshit if you want but don’t heap it onto my plate and tell me it tastes good.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Look, folks, we haven't won a Big Ten title since the 1930s, and even though we had a few solid seasons in the '50s and '60s, we've been absolutely terrible since then. It's easy to say that the next coach up is going to be the one to magically fix everything, but is that realistic? The last several decades say it isn't. So rather than pulling the trigger and going through this same cycle again and again, let's just let Francis Peay have a few more years at the helm to see if he can finally put it together. After all, who could we possibly get to replace him at a program this terrible?

Job has been career suicide.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I know you're as diehard as I am. We've both been posting here for years. I hear where you're coming from.

I guess I just don't agree that what happened 50, 30, even 10 years ago should be all that relevant. When I was in school and was friendly with some players, the excuse was that we couldn't get good enough talent and that our facilities weren't good enough to attract it. We now have the best. I do think it's fair to raise expectations after the university invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the program. The program earned that investment with the late NIT runs with Carmody and then making it to the Dance. But with investment comes obligations.

It should be much, much, MUCH harder to field a solid football program than a solid basketball program. It just requires so many more people to be able to do so many more things. And yet, three coaches in my lifetime have been able to achieve great success in football, with the current one showing no signs of slowing down even when there's still a dud year every now and then. And under Fitz, at least, those things do seem to be differentiators. I don't know why it wouldn't be true on this end.

My problem with Collins isn't even the record, per se. It's that we keep seeing the same mistakes, and nothing changes.

So is it the recruiting? We keep seeing the increased recruiting rankings, but at least since Mac/Pardon/Law/Lindsey we never seem to quite develop that star that takes us to the next level. We were in on Talen Horton-Tucker, now in the NBA. Didn't land him. In on Saddiq Bey, now in the NBA. Didn't land him. In on Ayo Dosunmu and Luka Garza, NPOY candidates and probably soon to be in the NBA. Didn't land them. In on Max Christie. Didn't land him. Pat Baldwin, Jr., literal scion to program royalty, is next, and maybe we'll land him. And the guys we have landed, despite solid pedigrees themselves, haven't measured up to the standards of those other players. The $64,000 question is, would they had they gone elsewhere?

So is it the offense? Bill Carmody, for all of his faults, put together a top-50 offense nationally something like 3-4 seasons in a row. (I'm not going to get into Carmody-Collins comps. Carmody got fired because his defenses and rebounding never improved, which kept us from winning.) Collins' offenses (per CBB Reference) have been 340th, 170th, 70th, 113th (dancing!), 176th, 309th, and 291st. So far this year we're actually at 85th, so there's been major improvement on the strength of the first few conference games, and we're still 6-8 and in 12th place in the conference. We saw a fleeting glimpse of what it could look like in the first 3 games, but obviously we weren't able to maintain that clip.

Is it the defense? The rebounding? The play calling? The confidence building? The chemistry? Or is it some magical voodoo force that surrounds Welsh-Ryan Arena? This season isn't yet written in stone; there's still time to find 4-6 more wins and feel pretty good heading into next year. But, again, we're just hoping that something changes the way that fans hope. And watching games in Welsh-Ryan the last few seasons has been the basketball equivalent of Charlie Brown, which led to plenty of social distancing inside the arena before it was cool. It's a program death spiral.

Now, changing coaches likely means an exodus of players and another tough 3-4 years before a realistic chance of returning to relevance, with no guarantee of any success beyond that point. I don't want to get into the revolving door of coaches either. But this isn't a Frank Solich situation, where we have a higher opinion of ourselves than reality. Unless we truly just are a 12th-place program, in which case we should have invested the money into WRA and the practice facility somewhere else.

tl;dr: I hope Collins can turn it around. Truly, I'm rooting for him, and for us. But belief without evidence was SO 25 years ago.

C’mon now, we’re we’re we even a finalist for Ayo, Luka, THT etc. I am sure you would all be thrilled if CCC swam in the swamp called Chicago AAU. Sorry, but why would a local kid go to NU with options they had? How many of the NBA players from the Chicago area went to NU?

This great facilities thing is entirely misleading. Great compared to the embarrassment we used to have, but by no means a recruiting tipping point. Even the Fitz Carlton hasn’t brought in top 100 players and that is with the added bonus of actually winning.

Every pundit I saw predicted NU 13th or 14th. Now everyone is acting surprised and blaming CCC. Fine if you think we should be top half, but NU does not have top half talent right now. Sure blame that on recruiting, the Coach picks the players, but is not a HS draft. Players have to want to come to NU, and I ask why would The top tier want to? The tourney team had overlooked players that CCC found. Law was the only one with a multitude of offers. He was sold being the first to take NU to the tourney. BMac, Pardon, Scottie were relatively lightly recruited.

 

[GatoLouco]

If it's realistic, can you show me again when it happened at NU in the last 50 years? Maybe you can also show me an NU coach who blows away the pitiful .329 conference percentage.

Yes, it's pathetic. Now you're getting it. Good luck finding the next coach.

I am more blown away by the "adult" discussion of the last couple of pages of this thread than anything else. Great discussion IMO. Civilized and with great points all around.

I would just like to point out that, at some point, you have to move on. I agree you can't just give up on a coach because you have a few set backs. But if CC does not make the tournament, I am sure there would be way less people defending him. The rest of his tenure is a bit pathetic, even for NU standards.

We can't use the "good luck finding the next coach" line to justify sticking with what doesn't work. We spent millions upgrading our facilities (even if arguably just to make them respectable). Beilein is on the sideline and it not coming to NU. But the idea we can't land a good coach is a bit far fetched. For those on the CC bandwagon, we landed him, if you considered him a good coach, we did it with him. For those not on his bandwagon, a lot of due diligence can land the right coach for us. Who that is, I don't know, but I could come up with 20 names to dig deep into.

 

[NUCat320]

Did you notice something about his first success? Vic, Scott and the back up center, Benson, were from Illinois. Mac was from Indiana, Lumpkin was from Minny and our center from Ohio. How many players on our current roster are from Illinois? 2. Walk-ons. How many from Indiana? O. Iowa or Wisconsin? 0. Ohio? 1. Michigan 1. Our next group has more kids from from Indiana and Michigan. Our schollie players are from NY (3), Ga, Oh, Pa, Mich, KS, Va and Texas. 2 players in total from B10 states.

This is a really valid point, I think.

Excepting Coble, the core of the good Carmody teams was local.

Young from Gordon Tech, Juice from Lincoln Park, Shurna from a Glenbard, Crawford from Naperville. (Also, less heralded guys like Ryan and Capocci, and heralded guys who didn’t quite pan out like Rowley). Taphorn was an in-state recruit who played a role on Collins’ tourney team.

Recruiting locally may reduce the number of ‘misses’, simply because you get a chance to see them more. It may also help you get in on kids earlier, either because you’ve seen them before other staffs (Shurna was an offer like this), or because a coach gives you an early tip.

(To be fair, Ivanauskas and Benson we’re local misses, and Ash was a lower-level recruit who brought very little value.)

My honest belief, because we’re seeing a pattern of relatively highly recruited prospects becoming moderately productive Cats, is that development is the biggest problem, followed by strategy and deploying that talent, followed by recruiting. The players come in better than they used to — they just haven’t gotten much better over time.

(Also, Ivanauskas had transferred to Cincinnati for this season, but recently opted out and has signed a pro contract in Lithuania. Go get ‘em.)

 

[IdahoAlum]

As a poster above noted, “Fire Collins, don’t fire Collins, don’t care.” The pandemic has really masked the impact of the current state of the program. Long losing streaks are bad. Long losing streaks in empty arenas, declining revenues and cancelled season tickets are the signals athletic directors can’t ignore. Except in a pandemic.

As others have noted, Collins will be back next year — if he wants to. Although if I were him, I’d be having some deep conversations with myself. This can’t be fun. It’s deeply wounding fan interest in the program. It must be killing him. But if there are fans allowed next season and this now four-year run of awful basketball becomes five, the evidence of an empty WRA and declining revenues will tell the new AD everything he/she needs to know.

 

[willycat]

Sure, and that got him a 10 year extension. Eventually, if you suck balls for long enough after a tournament appearance, the goodwill runs out. And if Collins was able to do it once, there’s no reason to believe another coach can’t replicate it more consistently.

well no other NU coaches have done just that.

 

[peatymeanis]

well no other NU coaches have done just that.

According to that logic we better go hire Gary Barnett again for football because nobody else can deliver an outright conference championship.

 

[Sec.112]

... But the idea we can't land a good coach is a bit far fetched ...

You really think it is?

Keep in mind we had two proven coaches before CC. O'Neill and Carmody weren't exactly stupid hires. Yes, both had their weaknesses. But now we're on a third coach who shows similar - what we believe to be - fundamental weaknesses.

That's three reasonably experienced coaches who we're barking about. Were each of them THAT bad? Or were they simply not able to recruit the talent that usually would cover their problems at almost any other program.

That's great that you have a list of 20 names, Gato. Hell, I'll give you 50 names, the one who is eventually hired and odds. And I'd be more than happy to bet the next coach will end up below .500 in the conference.

Of course, I agree with anyone who says you can't just give up. But once again, that needs to be tempered with the ultimate in patience. I don't blame anyone whose patience is running thin. I don't blame anyone who sees holes in Collins' game. We all do.

But for me and this program, that patience needle needs to be on empty before I make a move.

So this exercise of strongly b*&ching, spinning facts and showing ZERO support for a coach who actually made the tournament - the one who added (let's keep it low key) "something" to getting a new building - , and griping a year+ before the graduation of a second core group says way too much about any potential for the goals of the program. It's just NU-dumb running in circles.

 

[Styre]

We can't use the "good luck finding the next coach" line to justify sticking with what doesn't work. We spent millions upgrading our facilities (even if arguably just to make them respectable). Beilein is on the sideline and it not coming to NU. But the idea we can't land a good coach is a bit far fetched. For those on the CC bandwagon, we landed him, if you considered him a good coach, we did it with him. For those not on his bandwagon, a lot of due diligence can land the right coach for us. Who that is, I don't know, but I could come up with 20 names to dig deep into.

Our last two coaching hires:

1. A successful mid-major HC with the best career winning percentage in Ivy League history.

2. The top assistant at the best program in Division I, who also served as an assistant with USA Basketball.

Regardless of how you feel about either of their tenures at NU, those were not terrible, "what the hell is NU thinking" hires. There's no reason NU can't hire a coach with a good resume when the time comes.

 

[willycat]

C’mon now, we’re we’re we even a finalist for Ayo, Luka, THT etc. I am sure you would all be thrilled if CCC swam in the swamp called Chicago AAU. Sorry, but why would a local kid go to NU with options they had? How many of the NBA players from the Chicago area went to NU?

This great facilities thing is entirely misleading. Great compared to the embarrassment we used to have, but by no means a recruiting tipping point. Even the Fitz Carlton hasn’t brought in top 100 players and that is with the added bonus of actually winning.

Every pundit I saw predicted NU 13th or 14th. Now everyone is acting surprised and blaming CCC. Fine if you think we should be top half, but NU does not have top half talent right now. Sure blame that on recruiting, the Coach picks the players, but is not a HS draft. Players have to want to come to NU, and I ask why would The top tier want to? The tourney team had overlooked players that CCC found. Law was the only one with a multitude of offers. He was sold being the first to take NU to the tourney. BMac, Pardon, Scottie were relatively lightly recruited.

I'll add that because of NU's admission policies. they will likely never be near the top of the conference.

 

[GatoLouco]

You really think it is?

Keep in mind we had two proven coaches before CC. O'Neill and Carmody weren't exactly stupid hires. Yes, both had their weaknesses. But now we're on a third coach who shows similar - what we believe to be - fundamental weaknesses.

That's three reasonably experienced coaches who we're barking about. Were each of them THAT bad? Or were they simply not able to recruit the talent that usually would cover their problems at almost any other program.

That's great that you have a list of 20 names, Gato. Hell, I'll give you 50 names, the one who is eventually hired and odds. And I'd be more than happy to bet the next coach will end up below .500 in the conference.

Of course, I agree with anyone who says you can't just give up. But once again, that needs to be tempered with the ultimate in patience. I don't blame anyone whose patience is running thin. I don't blame anyone who sees holes in Collins' game. We all do.

But for me and this program, that patience needle needs to be on empty before I make a move.

So this exercise of strongly b*&ching, spinning facts and showing ZERO support for a coach who actually made the tournament - the one who added (let's keep it low key) "something" to getting a new building - , and griping a year+ before the graduation of a second core group says way too much about any potential for the goals of the program. It's just NU-dumb running in circles.

1) I'm not sure saying that, IMO, CC should have through the end of 21/22 to turn this around, is showing zero support. Being critical of him, is not advocating he's fired right now. And I am very critical. End of 21/22 is giving him 9 years. By most people's standards in the bbal world, that's plenty.

2) I think Styre made a good point. We did not hire nobodies before. What makes us think we'd have to hire one when and if the time comes? We even have "not embarrassing" facilities. We even have more brand recognition, mostly due to football.

At some point you have to make a change, try someone new. I think we all agree on that. When we are at that point is what we do not agree on. Just as, most likely, we all have different ideas on who could be our next coach.

 

[GatoLouco]

(Also, Ivanauskas had transferred to Cincinnati for this season, but recently opted out and has signed a pro contract in Lithuania. Go get ‘em.)

Good for him. I saw 3 or 4 games/portions of Cincy. He was struggling.

If he wants to continue playing, and was given the chance, I think he did the right thing jumping on the opportunity. In normal circumstances, the Lithuanian league would have a been a bad option for him. Way too strong. But he does not count as a "foreign" player in that league, so it makes sense.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

1) I'm not sure saying that, IMO, CC should have through the end of 21/22 to turn this around, is showing zero support. Being critical of him, is not advocating he's fired right now. And I am very critical. End of 21/22 is giving him 9 years. By most people's standards in the bbal world, that's plenty.

2) I think Styre made a good point. We did not hire nobodies before. What makes us think we'd have to hire one when and if the time comes? We even have "not embarrassing" facilities. We even have more brand recognition, mostly due to football.

At some point you have to make a change, try someone new. I think we all agree on that. When we are at that point is what we do not agree on. Just as, most likely, we all have different ideas on who could be our next coach.

I think we can attract a decent coach as well. What I am not convinced of is whether that would send NU to the promised land, as with most new coaches, the program would get a jolt of energy. However, I believe your best bet is to try and continue to improve the talent you bring in, get a couple over achievers and hope they blend together as a respectable team. Please get that junk yard dog like Sanjay or Pardon on the team to compliment the talent!

 

[freewillie07]

You must not teach in the business school to accept failure as okay. Needless to say, it is obvious that you should not be in the sports marketing department.

Did you notice something about his first success? Vic, Scott and the back up center, Benson, were from Illinois. Mac was from Indiana, Lumpkin was from Minny and our center from Ohio. How many players on our current roster are from Illinois? 2. Walk-ons. How many from Indiana? O. Iowa or Wisconsin? 0. Ohio? 1. Michigan 1. Our next group has more kids from from Indiana and Michigan. Our schollie players are from NY (3), Ga, Oh, Pa, Mich, KS, Va and Texas. 2 players in total from B10 states.

Take a look at Wiscy's, Iowa's and Indy's rosters. Full of players from their states. They do have the advantage of being the flagship university, but when NU went NCAA and was the star in the state, Illinois sucked. Chris shot for the stars in the state and struck out. I find it inexplicable that NU's last recruit from Indiana, IIRC, was MacIntosh, and in Illinois, IIRC, was Rap and Benson or the class of 2016. There may have been some, but I can't think of any. The question I would have as an AD is this: "Did he lose Illinois or Chicagoland as a recruiting area?" It sure looks that way. I am not going to say that getting a recruit from that area would solve our b-ball problems, but I find it inexplicable that in 5 years there has been no player, other than the superstars he tried for, who could meet the academic standards and play with some ability to help our team from a metro area of 9.5 million people. Or, get players from other local states, not far flung locations?

I think what we have is that he missed and thought his recruiting and coaching acumen was so great or high that he made a mistake in judgment of what recruits he thought he could get to NU, especially with the knowledge of a small arena, high academic standards, disinterested students, and a non-vocal fanbase.

Your whole post makes me realize that Loyola's Final Four team, which had no NBA players on it, was due solely to Sister Jean's prayers and divine intervention and had nothing to do with coaching or player development and that NU is doomed to persistent failure.

It's possible that the lack of "Homegrown" talent deserves to be talked about a bit more.

Using rankings from TOS:

Vic Law: #6 player in IL in 2014 class
Scottie Lindsey: #19 player in IL in 2014 class
Jordan Ash: #9 player in IL in 2015 class
Rapolas Ivanauskas: #4 player in IL in 2016 class
Barret Benson: #5 player in IL in 2016 class

To your point, since then, NU hasn't gotten an IL guy, and lately doesn't even seem to be trying except for the very very top:

2017: Missed Jordan Goodwin (#2), Nojel Eastern (#3) and Justin Smith (#4)

2018: Missed Ayo Dosunmu (#1), Talen Horton-Tucker (#3) and Tim Finke (#8)

2019: Missed E.J. Liddell (#1)

2020: Missed Adam Miller (#2)

2021: Missed Max Christie (#1) and Bryce Hopkins (#2)

Maybe part of it is Collins felt burned by Ash/Rap/Benson not panning out, I don't know. But without homegrown Thorson/JJTBC anchoring the offense for all those years, it's an open question whether NU football would have reached the level it's at right now. Sometimes, you need good local guys for a program to be successful. It worked with Law and Lindsey and BMac. Maybe there's an intangible local/regional pride that we're missing.

 

[peatymeanis]

It's possible that the lack of "Homegrown" talent deserves to be talked about a bit more.

Using rankings from TOS:

Vic Law: #6 player in IL in 2014 class
Scottie Lindsey: #19 player in IL in 2014 class
Jordan Ash: #9 player in IL in 2015 class
Rapolas Ivanauskas: #4 player in IL in 2016 class
Barret Benson: #5 player in IL in 2016 class

To your point, since then, NU hasn't gotten an IL guy, and lately doesn't even seem to be trying except for the very very top:

2017: Missed Jordan Goodwin (#2), Nojel Eastern (#3) and Justin Smith (#4)

2018: Missed Ayo Dosunmu (#1), Talen Horton-Tucker (#3) and Tim Finke (#8)

2019: Missed E.J. Liddell (#1)

2020: Missed Adam Miller (#2)

2021: Missed Max Christie (#1) and Bryce Hopkins (#2)

Maybe part of it is Collins felt burned by Ash/Rap/Benson not panning out, I don't know. But without homegrown Thorson/JJTBC anchoring the offense for all those years, it's an open question whether NU football would have reached the level it's at right now. Sometimes, you need good local guys for a program to be successful. It worked with Law and Lindsey and BMac. Maybe there's an intangible local/regional pride that we're missing.

I recall when Collins first came, there was a lot of buzz about how he was spending time building relationships with HS coaches and other key people in the IL HS basketball scene. It paid off with Vic Law. I agree that our approach now seems to be to swing at the elite talent and then look elsewhere when we strike out and that doesn't seem to be an accident. I wonder if the way Collins handled the Jordan Ash situation has made him persona non grata in IL recruiting circles.

 

[hoosboot]

It's possible that the lack of "Homegrown" talent deserves to be talked about a bit more.

Using rankings from TOS:

Vic Law: #6 player in IL in 2014 class
Scottie Lindsey: #19 player in IL in 2014 class
Jordan Ash: #9 player in IL in 2015 class
Rapolas Ivanauskas: #4 player in IL in 2016 class
Barret Benson: #5 player in IL in 2016 class

To your point, since then, NU hasn't gotten an IL guy, and lately doesn't even seem to be trying except for the very very top:

2017: Missed Jordan Goodwin (#2), Nojel Eastern (#3) and Justin Smith (#4)

2018: Missed Ayo Dosunmu (#1), Talen Horton-Tucker (#3) and Tim Finke (#8)

2019: Missed E.J. Liddell (#1)

2020: Missed Adam Miller (#2)

2021: Missed Max Christie (#1) and Bryce Hopkins (#2)

Maybe part of it is Collins felt burned by Ash/Rap/Benson not panning out, I don't know. But without homegrown Thorson/JJTBC anchoring the offense for all those years, it's an open question whether NU football would have reached the level it's at right now. Sometimes, you need good local guys for a program to be successful. It worked with Law and Lindsey and BMac. Maybe there's an intangible local/regional pride that we're missing.

There's probably something to that and to the idea that you might miss less on a player when you get to see them play more often because they are nearby.

But, I can't help thinking that NU continues to struggle because the program doesn't have an identity for how it seeks to win (see the football program) and doesn't get the kind of talent necessary to overcome that lack of identity. It's not dominated by experienced players who are more tactically efficient than their potentially more physically talented opponents, so it's not a "developmental" program. NU players aren't known for their physicality, grit, and perseverance, so it's not a "toughness" program. NU doesn't have a consistent offensive scheme that it plugs a certain type of player into that easily produces points, so it's not an "scoring" program. And NU doesn't employ a consistent defensive style that it uses to really challenge and lock down opposing offenses, so it's not a "defensive" program. You can make adjustments to your talent, but you have to have an identity. I have a clear sense of how Wisconsin goes about trying to win games. I have a clear sense of how Iowa does it. I know how a Bob Huggins teams tries to win games. I get how Butler tries to win, how Duke goes about it, what Texas Tech is doing. But I can't tell you how Northwestern is approaching it year after year and that seems like a problem.

 

[GatoLouco]

It's possible that the lack of "Homegrown" talent deserves to be talked about a bit more.

The hypothesis that seeing players more leads to less mistakes makes sense.

But I bet there's more correlation with the inability of staying old. After the All State season with multiple seniors, we failed miserably at that.

 

[Vassar69]

It's possible that the lack of "Homegrown" talent deserves to be talked about a bit more.

Using rankings from TOS:

Vic Law: #6 player in IL in 2014 class
Scottie Lindsey: #19 player in IL in 2014 class
Jordan Ash: #9 player in IL in 2015 class
Rapolas Ivanauskas: #4 player in IL in 2016 class
Barret Benson: #5 player in IL in 2016 class

To your point, since then, NU hasn't gotten an IL guy, and lately doesn't even seem to be trying except for the very very top:

2017: Missed Jordan Goodwin (#2), Nojel Eastern (#3) and Justin Smith (#4)

2018: Missed Ayo Dosunmu (#1), Talen Horton-Tucker (#3) and Tim Finke (#8)

2019: Missed E.J. Liddell (#1)

2020: Missed Adam Miller (#2)

2021: Missed Max Christie (#1) and Bryce Hopkins (#2)

Maybe part of it is Collins felt burned by Ash/Rap/Benson not panning out, I don't know. But without homegrown Thorson/JJTBC anchoring the offense for all those years, it's an open question whether NU football would have reached the level it's at right now. Sometimes, you need good local guys for a program to be successful. It worked with Law and Lindsey and BMac. Maybe there's an intangible local/regional pride that we're missing.

There has also been a pretty big drop in IL prep talent lately. I don’t have the data but I think I saw a Michael O’Brien piece a year or two back that compared the number of IL preps that landed at high major schools. It had really dropped off in recent years.

 

[rwhitney014]

C’mon now, we’re we’re we even a finalist for Ayo, Luka, THT etc. I am sure you would all be thrilled if CCC swam in the swamp called Chicago AAU. Sorry, but why would a local kid go to NU with options they had? How many of the NBA players from the Chicago area went to NU?

This great facilities thing is entirely misleading. Great compared to the embarrassment we used to have, but by no means a recruiting tipping point. Even the Fitz Carlton hasn’t brought in top 100 players and that is with the added bonus of actually winning.

Every pundit I saw predicted NU 13th or 14th. Now everyone is acting surprised and blaming CCC. Fine if you think we should be top half, but NU does not have top half talent right now. Sure blame that on recruiting, the Coach picks the players, but is not a HS draft. Players have to want to come to NU, and I ask why would The top tier want to? The tourney team had overlooked players that CCC found. Law was the only one with a multitude of offers. He was sold being the first to take NU to the tourney. BMac, Pardon, Scottie were relatively lightly recruited.

“The Trienens Performance Center is a game changer for the development of our student-athletes,” said Sullivan-Ubben Head Men’s Basketball Coach Chris Collins. “What was already a dramatic transformation for our Wildcats now has been elevated even further.”

“We promise recruits the premier student-athlete experience in the nation here at Northwestern,” said Shane Davis, Wildcats head volleyball coach. “The evolution of Welsh-Ryan Arena and the new Trienens Performance Center are enormous steps forward for our program and this community.”

Northwestern Athletics unveils Trienens Performance Center

news.northwestern.edu

“Recruits want to see that the University has made an investment to them, facilities is one of those areas,” coach Pat Fitzgerald said. “It’s become a check of the box; you either have them or you don’t.”

Ryan Fieldhouse sparks excitement at Big Ten Media Days

Players raved about the building’s design and amenities.

www.insidenu.com

Jim Phillips on facilities renovations, specifically in regard to Trienens: “I don’t know many programs that are elite that don’t have [state-of-the-art facilities]. To me it’s a sign of investment, an investment in a program that’s really important to us. Some of the past failures, that we haven’t achieved what we wanted to, shouldn’t be placed on a coach or a group of student-athletes.”

Jim Phillips talks Trienens Performance Center

The Northwestern AD thanked Howard Trienens and discussed the new facility’s impact on the basketball and volleyball programs.

www.insidenu.com

“We focused on enhancing student-athletes’ health and wellness, and connecting them more closely to the academic campus. The design for Ryan Fieldhouse and the Walter Athletics Center supports Northwestern’s goal to recruit and develop the best student-athletes,” said Schabel.

(I can't link this one, but it's copied from a Sports Business Daily article that they have in PDF form on their site.)

Point is, the university sold these facilities as tied to the recruitment and day-to-day experience of the athletes on campus. They aren't meant just as status symbols.

Also, I don't think the fact that we were projected at the bottom of the conference makes it any better that we are at the bottom of the conference. Our fans aren't upset because they're surprised, they're upset because we're again at the bottom of the conference. Meeting expectations of failure shouldn't be seen as a pass for more failure. And whether we were a finalist for any of those players or not is not something any of us really have inside knowledge on, but we do know the staff spent a lot of recruiting time and effort on those players. There are opportunity costs there; if you're in DC scouting Garza, you're not elsewhere scouting someone else.

No one here has answers. No one here, at least in the latest iteration of this thread, is even calling for Collins' head. We all recognize where we are in the world and that Collins will likely be with the program for at least another year or two if he wants to be. And I hope he wins and makes us all look silly!

 

[SDakaGordie]

You must not teach in the business school to accept failure as okay. Needless to say, it is obvious that you should not be in the sports marketing department.

Did you notice something about his first success? Vic, Scott and the back up center, Benson, were from Illinois. Mac was from Indiana, Lumpkin was from Minny and our center from Ohio. How many players on our current roster are from Illinois? 2. Walk-ons. How many from Indiana? O. Iowa or Wisconsin? 0. Ohio? 1. Michigan 1. Our next group has more kids from from Indiana and Michigan. Our schollie players are from NY (3), Ga, Oh, Pa, Mich, KS, Va and Texas. 2 players in total from B10 states.

Take a look at Wiscy's, Iowa's and Indy's rosters. Full of players from their states. They do have the advantage of being the flagship university, but when NU went NCAA and was the star in the state, Illinois sucked. Chris shot for the stars in the state and struck out. I find it inexplicable that NU's last recruit from Indiana, IIRC, was MacIntosh, and in Illinois, IIRC, was Rap and Benson or the class of 2016. There may have been some, but I can't think of any. The question I would have as an AD is this: "Did he lose Illinois or Chicagoland as a recruiting area?" It sure looks that way. I am not going to say that getting a recruit from that area would solve our b-ball problems, but I find it inexplicable that in 5 years there has been no player, other than the superstars he tried for, who could meet the academic standards and play with some ability to help our team from a metro area of 9.5 million people. Or, get players from other local states, not far flung locations?

I think what we have is that he missed and thought his recruiting and coaching acumen was so great or high that he made a mistake in judgment of what recruits he thought he could get to NU, especially with the knowledge of a small arena, high academic standards, disinterested students, and a non-vocal fanbase.

Your whole post makes me realize that Loyola's Final Four team, which had no NBA players on it, was due solely to Sister Jean's prayers and divine intervention and had nothing to do with coaching or player development and that NU is doomed to persistent failure.

I looked into taking an on-line course at Kellogg last night, but instead I just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. But I capitalized CONSISTENT for a reason. You just can’t expect consistently bad results to turn into consistently good results without a momentous change. Certainly, an academic standards change would go a very long way toward momentous, likely also reducing Collins’ need to go far away to get recruits that qualify. Without this NU-specific burden, raising a consistent program from the ashes can happen, though extremely infrequently - see UCONN (men and women), Gonzaga. Loyola was a one-time fluke, as you would expect. Consistency will more likely come if he gets another winning season. That may seem like a tautology, but we just need proof it wasn’t a fluke, and I still like our chances of this happening. With long-term expectations in mind, the new facilities and great class coming in (and lots of PBJ chatter), it’s therefore just too premature to talk about his firing. Churning and churning coaches until you think you can find a savior is sure to be a more dangerous approach for the program than being a bit more patient with a situation with still lots of positives. Firing sounds macho, but it just ain’t the right solution all the time. (And at least two people on this thread have called for it).

 

[NJCat]

I looked into taking an on-line course at Kellogg last night, but instead I just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. But I capitalized CONSISTENT for a reason. You just can’t expect consistently bad results to turn into consistently good results without a momentous change. Certainly, an academic standards change would go a very long way toward momentous, likely also reducing Collins’ need to go far away to get recruits that qualify. Without this NU-specific burden, raising a consistent program from the ashes can happen, though extremely infrequently - see UCONN (men and women), Gonzaga. Loyola was a one-time fluke, as you would expect. Consistency will more likely come if he gets another winning season. That may seem like a tautology, but we just need proof it wasn’t a fluke, and I still like our chances of this happening. With long-term expectations in mind, the new facilities and great class coming in (and lots of PBJ chatter), it’s therefore just too premature to talk about his firing. Churning and churning coaches until you think you can find a savior is sure to be a more dangerous approach for the program than being a bit more patient with a situation with still lots of positives. Firing sounds macho, but it just ain’t the right solution all the time. (And at least two people on this thread have called for it).

Re: Loyola. Yes, their Final Four appearance was a fluke. But since then they've gone 20-14, 21-11 and 13-3 this year. I'd take taht at NU in a heart beat. Give Porter Moser whatever it takes to get him to Evanston.

 

[rwhitney014]

Churning and churning coaches until you think you can find a savior is sure to be a more dangerous approach for the program than being a bit more patient with a situation with still lots of positives. Firing sounds macho, but it just ain’t the right solution all the time. (And at least two people on this thread have called for it).

We've had two coaches in 21 years. That's not churning.

 

[zeek55]

A couple last thoughts for the evening ...

I continue to be pretty blown away that in this seven-page thread I’m pretty sure there's not even two or three acknowledgements of how brutally competitive the conference is. There's absolutely none of the mediocrity of Steve Alford, Dan Monson, Jim O'Brien and Tommy Amaker to help pad records.

If you want to run out Collins in a historically competitive conference, so be it. But let’s stop acting like this is just any other year, and comparing to seasons when Tubby, Lickliter and Ed DeChellis are on the schedule and any team with eight guys had a shot at 4-2.

I'm sure some will read this and think I'm making excuses for Collins. The truth is I don't have a problem with anyone who started questioning the direction this year.

My problem is this is a pretty poor fan base to start with – football school … barely shows up … not a huge donor base … sits on their hands. And for a couple years now, people have gone out of their way to shred the guy who actually completed step A of the project. The build-up results in this - a seven-page thread without a whole lot of perspective.

It simply demonstrates another limit to the program.

I think we can all acknowledge what CC did for us in 2016-2017. But no coach can ride that forever. He'll get another 2 seasons to prove that he can at least get us on the path back there. Here's the problem; there doesn't appear to be much of a path from where we are to at least getting to another bid down the road other than waiting for the conference to get worse or hoping some game changer comes along (but then again that's how basketball works in the pros anyways).

As far as donors goes, I'm not sure what your point is. Our donors have spent $420+ million on facilities over the past decade (including WRA and Trienens). They'll likely be spending another $300-400 million on a football stadium renovation down the line. No other school will have come close to that kind of money spent except maybe Texas A&M over a similar time frame.

In terms of resources, only around 40-50 departments are even close to our level out of the 350 D1 basketball schools. CC was paid around the 40th highest salary according to USAToday last year.

I'm sorry, but finances/resources/facilities are not a valid excuse for poor performance in 2021. Those days are long gone.

Fan support is and will always be an issue as the lone private school in the Big Ten with alumni spread out far more than the other schools. I understand that's a real and persistent issue.

And yes, we know the Big Ten is brutal right now, but ultimately coaches are judged on how they perform. For me, reasonable expectations for us are regularly making the NIT with an NCAA bid every 3-5 years. We should be in the NIT or NCAA at least every other year.

Also, it's not like the Big Ten being "up" means that we're fighting for less spots. Big Ten will have years where 8-9 teams out of 14 make the tournament. You're telling me we have to expect to not be able to push to lower middle of the conference?

There has to be evidence over the next 2 seasons that he can put together teams that can break out of the basement of the Big Ten.

 

[freewillie07]

There's probably something to that and to the idea that you might miss less on a player when you get to see them play more often because they are nearby.

But, I can't help thinking that NU continues to struggle because the program doesn't have an identity for how it seeks to win (see the football program) and doesn't get the kind of talent necessary to overcome that lack of identity. It's not dominated by experienced players who are more tactically efficient than their potentially more physically talented opponents, so it's not a "developmental" program. NU players aren't known for their physicality, grit, and perseverance, so it's not a "toughness" program. NU doesn't have a consistent offensive scheme that it plugs a certain type of player into that easily produces points, so it's not an "scoring" program. And NU doesn't employ a consistent defensive style that it uses to really challenge and lock down opposing offenses, so it's not a "defensive" program. You can make adjustments to your talent, but you have to have an identity. I have a clear sense of how Wisconsin goes about trying to win games. I have a clear sense of how Iowa does it. I know how a Bob Huggins teams tries to win games. I get how Butler tries to win, how Duke goes about it, what Texas Tech is doing. But I can't tell you how Northwestern is approaching it year after year and that seems like a problem.

This is well-said. I can’t tell you how this NU basketball team attempts to win games.

In the past, CCC’s teams have been hard-nosed on defense, which helped offset scoring droughts. But that doesn’t seem to be a thing anymore — at least not the primary identity of this squad. The only defining trait that comes to mind lately is “not afraid to take bad shots.”

 

[zeek55]

You really think it is?

Keep in mind we had two proven coaches before CC. O'Neill and Carmody weren't exactly stupid hires. Yes, both had their weaknesses. But now we're on a third coach who shows similar - what we believe to be - fundamental weaknesses.

That's three reasonably experienced coaches who we're barking about. Were each of them THAT bad? Or were they simply not able to recruit the talent that usually would cover their problems at almost any other program.

That's great that you have a list of 20 names, Gato. Hell, I'll give you 50 names, the one who is eventually hired and odds. And I'd be more than happy to bet the next coach will end up below .500 in the conference.

Of course, I agree with anyone who says you can't just give up. But once again, that needs to be tempered with the ultimate in patience. I don't blame anyone whose patience is running thin. I don't blame anyone who sees holes in Collins' game. We all do.

But for me and this program, that patience needle needs to be on empty before I make a move.

So this exercise of strongly b*&ching, spinning facts and showing ZERO support for a coach who actually made the tournament - the one who added (let's keep it low key) "something" to getting a new building - , and griping a year+ before the graduation of a second core group says way too much about any potential for the goals of the program. It's just NU-dumb running in circles.

They're decent coaches who just didn't get the job done is all that tells you. You should still cycle through coaches every 5-7 years if it doesn't work out. There is literally nothing worse than unending mediocrity at this level. It destroys whatever fan support you had. Big losing streaks of 7-10 games every season just ends the season prematurely in the eyes of fans/students.

The reality is that we probably need one of the top 20 coaches in the country to really have the program that we want to have (i.e. consistently in the NIT with reasonably good odds of an NCAA bid every couple years).

We have that in football in Fitz. We have to be willing to go through HCs in MBB until we find a guy that can challenge at least the middle of the Big Ten consistently.

If CC can't show progress by 2023, then we have to try somebody else.

This will always be an upgrade over 250-300 other jobs in D1 basketball just given salary and facilities.

If somebody gets regular NCAA bids here, they will earn $5m+ a year easily. How many schools can offer that? Only a couple dozen.

That's why we have to make a change if this doesn't show signs of improvement.

 

[NUCat320]

(@zeek55 except WR coaches, who deserve at least 15 years. )

 

[Sec.112]

... But no coach can ride that forever. He'll get another 2 seasons to prove that he can at least get us on the path back there ...

And yes, we know the Big Ten is brutal right now ...

... There has to be evidence over the next 2 seasons that he can put together teams that can break out of the basement of the Big Ten ...

... That's why we have to make a change if this doesn't show signs of improvement.

I have absolutely no problem with these parameters. I could even accept the argument that might be a little generous.

I'm not wild about the 5-7 year timeframe, but I can accept it for the purposes of discussion. Can I dare to assume a tournament bid buys another year or two ... minimum? It would buy some amount of loyalty at another school with even the silliest fan bases. Surely, the oh-so-knowledgeable NU fan base can view this as the slightest evidence of improvement.

Now all we need to do is convince the segment of the fan base who wanted to cut off Collins before his eighth season was completed. The group that continues to go out of its way to spin to every negative aspect. The one that doesn't want to recognize the clear improvement without the padded stats of even half a pre-conference schedule. We might start with the eight people on the first two pages of this thread alone who clearly stated they wanted to dump Collins in December. But I know that's asking a lot.

 

[willycat]

I looked into taking an on-line course at Kellogg last night, but instead I just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. But I capitalized CONSISTENT for a reason. You just can’t expect consistently bad results to turn into consistently good results without a momentous change. Certainly, an academic standards change would go a very long way toward momentous, likely also reducing Collins’ need to go far away to get recruits that qualify. Without this NU-specific burden, raising a consistent program from the ashes can happen, though extremely infrequently - see UCONN (men and women), Gonzaga. Loyola was a one-time fluke, as you would expect. Consistency will more likely come if he gets another winning season. That may seem like a tautology, but we just need proof it wasn’t a fluke, and I still like our chances of this happening. With long-term expectations in mind, the new facilities and great class coming in (and lots of PBJ chatter), it’s therefore just too premature to talk about his firing. Churning and churning coaches until you think you can find a savior is sure to be a more dangerous approach for the program than being a bit more patient with a situation with still lots of positives. Firing sounds macho, but it just ain’t the right solution all the time. (And at least two people on this thread have called for it).

Firing all of the Admissions people does sound pretty good, you think?

 

[willycat]

Re: Loyola. Yes, their Final Four appearance was a fluke. But since then they've gone 20-14, 21-11 and 13-3 this year. I'd take taht at NU in a heart beat. Give Porter Moser whatever it takes to get him to Evanston.

NO. You do see who those wins were against, right?

 

[rwhitney014]

I have absolutely no problem with these parameters. I could even accept the argument that might be a little generous.

I'm not wild about the 5-7 year timeframe, but I can accept it for the purposes of discussion. Can I dare to assume a tournament bid buys another year or two ... minimum? It would buy some amount of loyalty at another school with even the silliest fan bases. Surely, the oh-so-knowledgeable NU fan base can view this as the slightest evidence of improvement.

Now all we need to do is convince the segment of the fan base who wanted to cut off Collins before his eighth season was completed. The group that continues to go out of its way to spin to every negative aspect. The one that doesn't want to recognize the clear improvement without the padded stats of even half a pre-conference schedule. We might start with the eight people on the first two pages of this thread alone who clearly stated they wanted to dump Collins in December. But I know that's asking a lot.

A tournament bid would buy 3-4 years, at least. If every player who graduates from NU plays in an NCAA Tournament, even if there are some down years in between, I think that's a good goal for this program. In fact, the first tournament bid bought 4 years, which is exactly where we are now!

 

[curdog]

I have absolutely no problem with these parameters. I could even accept the argument that might be a little generous.

I'm not wild about the 5-7 year timeframe, but I can accept it for the purposes of discussion. Can I dare to assume a tournament bid buys another year or two ... minimum? It would buy some amount of loyalty at another school with even the silliest fan bases. Surely, the oh-so-knowledgeable NU fan base can view this as the slightest evidence of improvement.

Now all we need to do is convince the segment of the fan base who wanted to cut off Collins before his eighth season was completed. The group that continues to go out of its way to spin to every negative aspect. The one that doesn't want to recognize the clear improvement without the padded stats of even half a pre-conference schedule. We might start with the eight people on the first two pages of this thread alone who clearly stated they wanted to dump Collins in December. But I know that's asking a lot.

Assume doing a lot of heavy lifting here. I would take a 9th place finish or higher for starters. Baby steps.

 

[zeek55]

I have absolutely no problem with these parameters. I could even accept the argument that might be a little generous.

I'm not wild about the 5-7 year timeframe, but I can accept it for the purposes of discussion. Can I dare to assume a tournament bid buys another year or two ... minimum? It would buy some amount of loyalty at another school with even the silliest fan bases. Surely, the oh-so-knowledgeable NU fan base can view this as the slightest evidence of improvement.

Now all we need to do is convince the segment of the fan base who wanted to cut off Collins before his eighth season was completed. The group that continues to go out of its way to spin to every negative aspect. The one that doesn't want to recognize the clear improvement without the padded stats of even half a pre-conference schedule. We might start with the eight people on the first two pages of this thread alone who clearly stated they wanted to dump Collins in December. But I know that's asking a lot.

Yes, I generally do think an NCAA bid wins the HC a full new 3-4 year cycle as stated above. I'd probably give CC 4 more years specifically if we got to the tourney by 2023.

NIT bid or at least improvement in the Big Ten record probably buys another year or so.

As far as a new coach goes, the pressures would be the same. Get to a tourney within 5 years or show significant direction or build up towards it.

 

[phatcat]

Permit me a little literary license here.
I had to fire one of my employees once for sexual harassment. While conducting my investigation, he made some excuse like 'sometimes when you mentor someone you are working closely and make contact.
To which I said, 'perhaps that is so, but you never put your hands on her a$$'.

I say this because, all excuses aside, it is unacceptable to have a complete and sustained collapse such as this. The tourney team was preceded by 3 decent teams. I don't get riled about it, but he has failed. Think whatever you want, but we probably have the lowest ROI or any major college team the last few years.

 

[NJCat]

The tourney team was preceded by 3 decent teams.

I think you're misremembering the first two CCC teams. According to Pomeroy the first team was #134 in the nation and the second #122. The season preceding the tournament was decent at #68 and NU peaked at #38 in the unicorn year. Since then NU has been #85, 74, 132 and this year to date #71 (and falling). Hardly a distinguished record.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Permit me a little literary license here.
I had to fire one of my employees once for sexual harassment. While conducting my investigation, he made some excuse like 'sometimes when you mentor someone you are working closely and make contact.
To which I said, 'perhaps that is so, but you never put your hands on her a$$'.

I say this because, all excuses aside, it is unacceptable to have a complete and sustained collapse such as this. The tourney team was preceded by 3 decent teams. I don't get riled about it, but he has failed. Think whatever you want, but we probably have the lowest ROI or any major college team the last few years.

It was also unacceptable for that lowest ROI team to have a 3 game winning streak and be ranked! 3-7 just ain’t that far off realistic expectations for this team in this league. As much as I wish the results were better, I just don’t think we should be concluding Collins is an utter failure.

 

[JournCat]

I think you're misremembering the first two CCC teams. According to Pomeroy the first team was #134 in the nation and the second #122. The season preceding the tournament was decent at #68 and NU peaked at #38 in the unicorn year. Since then NU has been #85, 74, 132 and this year to date #71 (and falling). Hardly a distinguished record.

Hopefully we can find a few more wins this year and establish the kind of baseline we had in 2016. I am optimistic that we can get two or three more now that every opponent is not a top-15 team.

 

[catfans5]

I have absolutely no problem with these parameters. I could even accept the argument that might be a little generous.

I'm not wild about the 5-7 year timeframe, but I can accept it for the purposes of discussion. Can I dare to assume a tournament bid buys another year or two ... minimum? It would buy some amount of loyalty at another school with even the silliest fan bases. Surely, the oh-so-knowledgeable NU fan base can view this as the slightest evidence of improvement.

Now all we need to do is convince the segment of the fan base who wanted to cut off Collins before his eighth season was completed. The group that continues to go out of its way to spin to every negative aspect. The one that doesn't want to recognize the clear improvement without the padded stats of even half a pre-conference schedule. We might start with the eight people on the first two pages of this thread alone who clearly stated they wanted to dump Collins in December. But I know that's asking a lot.

Your posts are well thought out and you present good viewpoints. You have made those posts for a number years and I appreciate them.

I will steal FitzPhile's post or thunder here: "According to Pomeroy the first team was #134 in the nation and the second #122. The season preceding the tournament was decent at #68 and NU peaked at #38 in the unicorn year. Since then NU has been #85, 74, 132 and this year to date #71 (and falling). Hardly a distinguished record." I will put some more numbers for your review.

Season Overall % B10 % Coach
2019-20 Big Ten 8 23 .258 3 17 .150 Chris Collins (8-23)
2018-19 Big Ten 13 19 .406 4 16 .200 Chris Collins (13-19)
2017-18 Big Ten 15 17 .469 6 12 .333 Chris Collins (15-17)
2016-17 Big Ten 24 12 .667 10 8 .556 Chris Collins (24-12)
2015-16 Big Ten 20 12 .625 8 10 .444 Chris Collins (20-12)
2014-15 Big Ten 15 17 .469 6 12 .333 Chris Collins (15-17)
2013-14 Big Ten 14 19 .424 6 12 .333 Chris Collins (14-19)
2012-13 Big Ten 13 19 .406 4 14 .222 Bill Carmody (13-19)
2011-12 Big Ten 19 14 .576 8 10 .444 Bill Carmody (19-14)
2010-11 Big Ten 20 14 .588 7 11 .389 Bill Carmody (20-14)
2009-10 Big Ten 20 14 .588 7 11 .389 Bill Carmody (20-14)
2008-09 Big Ten 17 14 .548 8 10 .444 Bill Carmody (17-14)
2007-08 Big Ten 8 22 .267 1 17 .056 Bill Carmody (8-22)
2006-07 Big Ten 13 18 .419 2 14 .125 Bill Carmody (13-18)
2005-06 Big Ten 14 15 .483 6 10 .375 Bill Carmody (14-15)
2004-05 Big Ten 15 16 .484 6 10 .375 Bill Carmody (15-16)
2003-04 Big Ten 14 15 .483 8 8 .500 Bill Carmody (14-15)
2002-03 Big Ten 12 17 .414 3 13 .188 Bill Carmody (12-17)
2001-02 Big Ten 16 13 .552 7 9 .438 Bill Carmody (16-13)21
2000-01 Big Ten 11 19 .367 3 13 .188 Bill Carmody (11-19)

I am not getting into a BC vs CC argument/comparison of coaching. I put the records there for some perspective. I am a little jaded since if I recall correctly, my season tickets started in 03-04, went to games as a kid with Billy McKinney in McGaw with the dirt floor surrounding the court at McGaw, saw Tex Winter's teams, and saw Bill Foster's teams. I fully comprehend the academic restrictions on recruiting and the prior facility impediments. I sat through some good and some really bad basketball.

IMO, CC with his NCAA tourney thought NU was now big time and the top recruits would come. It was a huge miscalculation which led to NU's predicament in 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-2021. NU should get better next year with new talent, but the same will occur with other B10 teams. Frankly, we have one player who could probably start for every team, except Michigan and Iowa. For our team to get competitive, we have to hit on every recruit. No misses. How realistic is that?

Finally, the biggest problem is that all the B10 coaches are returning. After three games, they figured out CC's offense that you do not have to protect the lane since NU won't go there, make Buie go left, stay with your man and NU will force bad shots. B10 coaches do a great job at transition defense which shuts down NU's up tempo offense. Finally, my initial thrill with CC was the focus on rebounding. Vic was a ferocious rebounder. We now lose rebounding margin almost every game, and sometimes by double digits. Hopefully, the next couple of games will change those outcomes and we will show marked improvement. I hope CC can right the ship, but you can call me jaded.

 

[peatymeanis]

For our team to get competitive, we have to hit on every recruit. No misses. How realistic is that?

That's not realistic (not even Duke or Kentucky hit on every recruit) and also not necessary. We realistically need 3-4 'hits' on the team at any one time (avg 1 recruiting hit per year). 'Hit' by definition meaning guys who can unquestionably be a starter for at least half the teams in the conference. On the tournament team the hits were BMac, Law, Pardon, Lindsey. The rest of the team can't be scrubs, but they can just be guys who the coaches get to buy into the culture, play hard/within themselves, and can be developed. The prime example is Lumpkin.

The formula is there, we've already done it once under Collins. And Carmody likely would have gotten us over the hump if not for the weirdness around Coble's last year using the same formula. The argument seems to come down to, how much goodwill does Collins deserve for his first 4 years? How much patience should that buy? Personally, I think that goodwill is all used up (knowing that he's not actually going anywhere for at least 15 months due to the contract situation). Not just because we are losing, but by how we are losing and how the team is trending. Eventually you've just gotta make a change because there's too much institutional baggage with the incumbent for him to turn it around.