Looking back with 30 games of hindsight
- Thread starter Vassar69
- Start date
2020 wasn't an outlier for us because Hank was DC and it was a continuation of 2015-2019; we had solid defenses for the most part every year from 2015 to 2020.
2015-2018 we had CT as QB, won the division once, averaged 9 wins, and went to 4 straight bowl games (won last 3 of them).
2019 we had a strong defense but the offense was a mess; ended up 3-9.
2020 we got Peyton Ramsey as a grad transfer and that fixed the offense; combined with Hank's defense that team was going to be hard to beat regardless of Covid.
2020 team would win the west regardless.
Post-Covid, yes the team collapsed, but that was due to going from a top defensive coordinator of all time to one of the absolute worst (a buddy hire) in JON.
Our pre/during/post Covid situation is much more about the DC change than anything else.
2015-2018 we had CT as QB, won the division once, averaged 9 wins, and went to 4 straight bowl games (won last 3 of them).
2019 we had a strong defense but the offense was a mess; ended up 3-9.
2020 we got Peyton Ramsey as a grad transfer and that fixed the offense; combined with Hank's defense that team was going to be hard to beat regardless of Covid.
2020 team would win the west regardless.
Post-Covid, yes the team collapsed, but that was due to going from a top defensive coordinator of all time to one of the absolute worst (a buddy hire) in JON.
Our pre/during/post Covid situation is much more about the DC change than anything else.
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In 2019 I felt there was something seriously wrong within the program. Couldn't put a finger on it but had a bad, bad feeling Fitz had lost the team. Ramsey and several other transfers really helped us in 2020 but when Ramsey didn't come back with a chance to be the all-time passer in B1G history it reenforced my queasy feelings. '21 and '22 sealed my doubts. JON hire, bad O, lousy effort became the standard. The play on the field was awful and obviously there were major issues within groups of players. We greatly needed change. What has occurred is revolting to me but the signs were all there.
I think Fitz would agree with your take and had planned to overhaul the staff over a 2-3 year period starting with the past offseason. I think we'd likely have seen at least a few other new hires in the subsequent offseason.
Observing Fitz, I think he wanted to spread the coaching changes out in order to integrate the new additions easier while giving other coaches another year or two to try to fix their units.
It can happen to any organization where the head has been in place for a long time, so this to me isn't Fitz-specific but more just several units struggling all at once and taking steps backwards.
Obviously this makes it sort of an impossible job for Braun to do now for example because Fitz probably planned to evaluate Bajakian this season. Do we expect Braun to do that as a new HC? Not sure it's all that reasonable expectation that he'd win the job and oversee another staff overhaul (harder as a new HC without a past history of assistants).
NU conference record 2015 to 2020 before Hank’s retirement:
2015 6-2
2016 5-4
2017 7-2
2018 8-1
2019 1-8
2020 6-1
And let me understand, you think 2020 is the outlier?
I think you need to play the game “ one of these years is not like the others.”
It also makes me laugh that Vassar decided to show up after Illinois decided to show up.
We had a hug advantage in 2020. We had fewer Covid problems than basically any other program and we were able to take advantage. The team was good but harder to say just how good
I've often thought this and been especially proud of that year's team for it - extreme discipline which was required in such weird and unknown times.
Of course, can't discount Ramsey's impact, and the shortened season - who knows if we would have taken another loss or two playing a full 12.
Wait... I'm confused. I would have thought all our hugging would have increased the chance of a Covid problem.
But we also had our 1st rounder/Pro Bowler offensive lineman sit out the season...
Originally I would have disagreed with this take thinking that 2019 was a blip, but following 2021/22, I've been more inclined to think that we benefitted disproportionately from 2020.
Yes, we had Hank; yes, we had an experienced transfer QB in Ramsey; yes, we did much better in avoiding COVID than other teams; but where I think we had the biggest advantage was in the fact that there were no crowds to juice up the home teams.
Do you think we come back from 17-0 down at Iowa if they have their usual rabid sold-out crowd? That game ultimately decided the division. In the original schedule, we were supposed to also play at Penn State and the Wisconsin game was supposed to be at Wrigley. Would we have won both of those games? @MSU was supposed to be the first game - maybe we win that one instead of believing our press clippings after the 5-0 start and lose.
So I think, yeah, maybe we go 9-4 that year if things had been "normal", but without winning the division and being top 10 at the end of the year. I would still say it's an outlier in the context of the last 4+ seasons.
Yes, we had Hank; yes, we had an experienced transfer QB in Ramsey; yes, we did much better in avoiding COVID than other teams; but where I think we had the biggest advantage was in the fact that there were no crowds to juice up the home teams.
Do you think we come back from 17-0 down at Iowa if they have their usual rabid sold-out crowd? That game ultimately decided the division. In the original schedule, we were supposed to also play at Penn State and the Wisconsin game was supposed to be at Wrigley. Would we have won both of those games? @MSU was supposed to be the first game - maybe we win that one instead of believing our press clippings after the 5-0 start and lose.
So I think, yeah, maybe we go 9-4 that year if things had been "normal", but without winning the division and being top 10 at the end of the year. I would still say it's an outlier in the context of the last 4+ seasons.
Car washes and Shrek claps were suspended during COVID.
Yes, we could have had 2 first rounders play on the line in 2020. Don't underestimate what that could have done for us.
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