Looks like with all the nonsense on the board today...

[mikewebb68]

It is time to step right up and put your reputation where your mouth is and make a screenname wager!

This will be a simple one:

Me: We will have a better BIG record next season. meaning 5 conference wins or more, including BTT.

You: We will have 4 conference wins or less including BTT.

If you win, you get to change my screenname to a name of your choosing.

I I win, I get to pick a brand-new screenname for you!

Now, for those who have already losf their screennames to me, I don't want to leave you out of the fun, so we will offer a board-ban wager to you. If you win, I can't post on any board here (yes, even the Rock, which I pay for) for a full calendar year (12-month period) I can only lurk. However, if you lose, you can't post on any board here for a full calendar year!

I suspect that I will receive immediate action here from the "sky is falling, we're the worst team ever, CC has absolutely no plan, why would he, he's a D-1 coach.." crowd, so this will be strictly first come, first serve!

Good luck-- hopefully this will be more of a sweat than my past two screenname wagers were!

 

[IGNORE]

It is time to step right up and put your reputation where your mouth is and make a screenname wager!

This will be a simple one:

Me: We will have a better BIG record next season. meaning 5 conference wins or more, includin BTT.

You: We will have 4 conference wins or less including BTT.

If you win, you get to change my screenname to a name of your choosing.

I I win, I get to pick a brand-new screenname for you!

Now, for those who have already losf their screennames to me, I don't want to leave you out of the fun, so we will offer a board-ban wager to you. If you win, I can't post on any board here (yes, even the Rock, which I pay for) for a full calendar year, I can only lurk. However, if you lose, you can't post on any board here for a full calendar year!

I suspect that I will receive immediate action here from the "sky is falling, we're the worst team ever, CC has absolutely no plan, why would he, he's a D-1 coach.." crowd, so this will be strictly first come, first serve!

Good luck-- hopefully this will be more of a sweat than my past two screenname wagers were!

I might take this. Want to do a little research tomorrow at work. But boy that bar is low.

 

[mikewebb68]

I might take this. Want to do a little research tomorrow at work. But boy that bar is low.

Thank you for your comsideration! Well, just for you Bob, I will make this only a first come, firat serve wager only with respect to the only other person who is eligible (meaning Fitzphile, and I doubt he will take it so you can take your time on this). Won't leave it open forever though, obviously...

For everyone else, it is obviously first-cone first serve on the screenname bet, but we could have both a screename and board ban wager in play on the same fact pattern here for the first time in WR history!

 

[NJCat]

Thank you for your comsideration! Well, just for you Bob, I will make this only a first come, firat serve wager only with respect to the only other person who is eligible (meaning Fitzphile, and I doubt he will take it so you can take your time on this).

No attacking other posters. If you feel the need to harass another poster, don't do it. What is considered attacking other posters?

• Bringing up their name in posts that they did not start or were not involved in, just to get a reaction from them.

 

[mikewebb68]

No attacking other posters. If you feel the need to harass another poster, don't do it. What is considered attacking other posters?

• Bringing up their name in posts that they did not start or were not involved in, just to get a reaction from them.

Was not attacking you at all, just merely making you aware that you were eligible for this special wager of course! My apologies if you saw it as an attack.

 

[ricko654321]

I might take this. Want to do a little research tomorrow at work. But boy that bar is low.

That bar is quite low...

 

[ricko654321]

That bar is quite low...

I thought about it. I would probably set it at 6.5, would very slightly lean over there but I think would take under 7. Note that with a 20 game season this year, we had 4, Neb had 6, and such visionary teams as PSU Rutgers and Illinois each had 7 wins.

All the other conferences have 18 game conference schedules.
- in the Big 12: 2 teams had <7 wins (out of 10)
- in the SEC: 4 teams had <7 wins (of 14)
- in the ACC: 6 teams had <7 wins (! of 15)
- in the Big East: 0 teams had <7 wins (!!)

So maybe the typical distribution is in the 3 range. Perhaps 2.5-3 teams. At <5 you are effectively betting on us being the worst in the conference (there were 3 in ACC, 2 in SEC, 1 in Big 12, none in Big East on 18 game schedule). Which is certainly possible, though I don’t think it’s a >50% possibility. But if others do, that’s reasonable I suppose. That said, not sure why you would want to have that bet on and even partly be cheering against the Cats for a full season. Especially when the supposed “benefit” is kicking someone off the board? Just seems a bit strange to me.

 

[NJCat]

Was not attacking you at all, just merely making you aware that you were eligible for this special wager of course! My apologies if you saw it as an attack.

For future reference, I am not interested in any more board wagers.

 

[mikewebb68]

I thought about it. I would probably set it at 6.5, would very slightly lean over there but I think would take under 7. Note that with a 20 game season this year, we had 4, Neb had 6, and such visionary teams as PSU Rutgers and Illinois each had 7 wins.

All the other conferences have 18 game conference schedules.
- in the Big 12: 2 teams had <7 wins (out of 10)
- in the SEC: 4 teams had <7 wins (of 14)
- in the ACC: 6 teams had <7 wins (! of 15)
- in the Big East: 0 teams had <7 wins (!!)

So maybe the typical distribution is in the 3 range. Perhaps 2.5-3 teams. At <5 you are effectively betting on us being the worst in the conference (there were 3 in ACC, 2 in SEC, 1 in Big 12, none in Big East on 18 game schedule). Which is certainly possible, though I don’t think it’s a >50% possibility. But if others do, that’s reasonable I suppose. That said, not sure why you would want to have that bet on and even partly be cheering against the Cats for a full season. Especially when the supposed “benefit” is kicking someone off the board? Just seems a bit strange to me.

Except for the posters that feel our program is a dumpster fire, given the comments that have been made. This should be easy money for them...

 

[mikewebb68]

For future reference, I am not interested in any more board wagers.

And understandably so. Go Penn State!

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

Except for the posters that feel our program is a dumpster fire, given the comments that have been made. This should be easy money for them...

Exactly! Here’s their chance! If the program is such a dumpster fire, no way we should win 5 conference games, right? They can’t lose!

 

[mikewebb68]

Exactly! Here’s their chance! If the program is such a dumpster fire, no way we should win 5 conference games, right? They can’t lose!

Yup. For all the criticism Bob gets, at least he stands up for what he believes in; he has wagered me twice, and is considering this one.

 

[eastbaycat99]

This bet reminds me of the challenges of setting monetary policy at a zero lower bound. The Cats had such a sufficiently dismal year that it will be very difficult to do worse and almost any positive event will allow them to finish better.

I do remember on January 10 or so, with 15 games left in the regular season, Mikewebb predicted the rest of the year would be a “fun ride” and pretty much put down anyone who thought things were moving toward a train wreck year. I will question his clairvoyance based on that rosy prediction.

I think, based on his ceaseless optimism, a more convincing bet would be a minimum of 8 conference wins next year, including the tournament. That would make the 2 year record at least 12-30, and possibly get them somewhat near an NIT bid. I personally think that will be hard to come by, but I keep hearing that Collins is bringing in the best recruits the Cats have ever had, so I could well be wrong. To set it at 5 would mean a 2 year record of 9-33 which would be horrendous by any reasonable measure. Regardless, it is a fool’s bet. The program is in sufficiently bad shape that hoping for a year with visible player development and high retention is a much more important goal to me as compared to winning 5 instead of 4 conference games.

 

[freewillie07]

This bet reminds me of the challenges of setting monetary policy at a zero lower bound. The Cats had such a sufficiently dismal year that it will be very difficult to do worse and almost any positive event will allow them to finish better.

I do remember on January 10 or so, with 15 games left in the regular season, Mikewebb predicted the rest of the year would be a “fun ride” and pretty much put down anyone who thought things were moving toward a train wreck year. I will question his clairvoyance based on that rosy prediction.

I think, based on his ceaseless optimism, a more convincing bet would be a minimum of 8 conference wins next year, including the tournament. That would make the 2 year record at least 12-30, and possibly get them somewhat near an NIT bid. I personally think that will be hard to come by, but I keep hearing that Collins is bringing in the best recruits the Cats have ever had, so I could well be wrong. To set it at 5 would mean a 2 year record of 9-33 which would be horrendous by any reasonable measure. Regardless, it is a fool’s bet. The program is in sufficiently bad shape that hoping for a year with visible player development and high retention is a much more important goal to me as compared to winning 5 instead of 4 conference games.

This bet is like buying a put option on a stock you're massively long.

 

[hdhntr1]

This bet reminds me of the challenges of setting monetary policy at a zero lower bound. The Cats had such a sufficiently dismal year that it will be very difficult to do worse and almost any positive event will allow them to finish better.

I do remember on January 10 or so, with 15 games left in the regular season, Mikewebb predicted the rest of the year would be a “fun ride” and pretty much put down anyone who thought things were moving toward a train wreck year. I will question his clairvoyance based on that rosy prediction.

I think, based on his ceaseless optimism, a more convincing bet would be a minimum of 8 conference wins next year, including the tournament. That would make the 2 year record at least 12-30, and possibly get them somewhat near an NIT bid. I personally think that will be hard to come by, but I keep hearing that Collins is bringing in the best recruits the Cats have ever had, so I could well be wrong. To set it at 5 would mean a 2 year record of 9-33 which would be horrendous by any reasonable measure. Regardless, it is a fool’s bet. The program is in sufficiently bad shape that hoping for a year with visible player development and high retention is a much more important goal to me as compared to winning 5 instead of 4 conference games.

And that was the point that Law went down and he never really fully recovered. He is just saying next you would be better than this year which by definition is 5 or more BIG wins, He did not say massively better. You are suggesting an improvement of 4 BIG games which is pretty unreasonable. How many BIG teams have increased by 4 games in one year. He set the point at which he was willing to bet. Don't like it, don't bet

 

[eastbaycat99]

And that was the point that Law went down and he never really fully recovered. He is just saying next you would be better than this year which by definition is 5 or more BIG wins, He did not say massively better. You are suggesting an improvement of 4 BIG games which is pretty unreasonable. How many BIG teams have increased by 4 games in one year. He set the point at which he was willing to bet. Don't like it, don't bet

Maybe he can give a better interpretation, but he starts his original post “Looks like with all the nonsense on the board today it is time to step up and put your reputation where your mouth is” and the goes on to boldly say the team will win 5 games next year instead of 4. I think the point many people have been making is that the team was 14th in conference this year, and may well be 14th in conference next year. If the Cats win 5 next year, 14th is a near certainty. I’m basically saying if you want to put the nonsense mongers in their place, make a bold bet, say 8-13, something that indicates a 10th place finish or so. If you are going to say the Cats are probable cellar dwellers next year, winning only 5, you’ve gone a long way toward agreeing with the doomsayers, so don’t call their criticisms nonsense. I’ve said previously that Collins should get 2 more years; like I said in my post, all I want is noticeable player development and better retention next year. That would put the team in a position to make a big step forward in 2 years. I am fully reconciled to another year in the cellar. Probably the only thing short of a recruiting scandal that would make me rethink support for two years would be high early turnover next year again on top of a last place finish (say Kopp, Nance and one other scholarship player leaving).

 

[ricko654321]

This bet reminds me of the challenges of setting monetary policy at a zero lower bound. The Cats had such a sufficiently dismal year that it will be very difficult to do worse and almost any positive event will allow them to finish better.

I do remember on January 10 or so, with 15 games left in the regular season, Mikewebb predicted the rest of the year would be a “fun ride” and pretty much put down anyone who thought things were moving toward a train wreck year. I will question his clairvoyance based on that rosy prediction.

I think, based on his ceaseless optimism, a more convincing bet would be a minimum of 8 conference wins next year, including the tournament. That would make the 2 year record at least 12-30, and possibly get them somewhat near an NIT bid. I personally think that will be hard to come by, but I keep hearing that Collins is bringing in the best recruits the Cats have ever had, so I could well be wrong. To set it at 5 would mean a 2 year record of 9-33 which would be horrendous by any reasonable measure. Regardless, it is a fool’s bet. The program is in sufficiently bad shape that hoping for a year with visible player development and high retention is a much more important goal to me as compared to winning 5 instead of 4 conference games.

I’m struggling to follow this comparison...

 

[ricko654321]

This bet is like buying a put option on a stock you're massively long.

Now this one, on the other hand, makes perfect sense! The Cats are the stock.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I’m struggling to follow this comparison...

A central bank cuts its interest rate during a recession to boost growth and raises it during expansion to limit inflation. A problem arises if the rate is already near zero during an economic slowdown, since there is no more room to cut the rate. This condition is called the zero lower bound, and describes a condition where the central bank has a limited range of choice. Mikewebb’s bet comes after a year when the Cats are near bottom: they can’t get much worse, recordwise. 0-4 wins is the total universe for winning the bet on the downside. On the upside, the Cats could win anywhere from 5 to 23 games, a much larger set of outcomes. The analogy is that like a central banker with a prevailing interest rate near zero, the bettor taking the downside have limited hope of success.

 

[Southport Cat]

Now this why we love the Northwestern boards! The interest rates, baby!

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

I might take this. Want to do a little research tomorrow at work. But boy that bar is low.

Winning 5 games does not mean it is a better team. There is some randomness in this, schedule differences, level of opponents, etc. Winning 5 games would still mean we are no bueno.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Winning 5 games does not mean it is a better team. There is some randomness in this, schedule differences, level of opponents, etc. Winning 5 games would still mean we are no bueno.

Indisputable fact. Two years from now, though, I expect the narrative to center more around ten wins than five.

 

[DaCat]

A central bank cuts its interest rate during a recession to boost growth and raises it during expansion to limit inflation. A problem arises if the rate is already near zero during an economic slowdown, since there is no more room to cut the rate. This condition is called the zero lower bound, and describes a condition where the central bank has a limited range of choice. Mikewebb’s bet comes after a year when the Cats are near bottom: they can’t get much worse, recordwise. 0-4 wins is the total universe for winning the bet on the downside. On the upside, the Cats could win anywhere from 5 to 23 games, a much larger set of outcomes. The analogy is that like a central banker with a prevailing interest rate near zero, the bettor taking the downside have limited hope of success.

I think this is exactly Mike's point. A lot of people are saying we will be worse next year, when in fact, we could have more wins in the B1G. I don't see anyone tripping over themselves to take this bet after bitching and moaning like it's the end of the world.

 

[NJCat]

I think this is exactly Mike's point. A lot of people are saying we will be worse next year, when in fact, we could have more wins in the B1G. I don't see anyone tripping over themselves to take this bet after bitching and moaning like it's the end of the world.

Can't be worse than 14th. What's the point in betting?

 

[Jonny2TheP]

No joke, I made the same bet with my Dad a week ago. We bet a breakfast at Prairie Joes- I have the Cats at 5 or more conference wins next year.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

No joke, I made the same bet with my Dad a week ago. We bet a breakfast at Prairie Joes- I have the Cats at 5 or more conference wins next year.

Is your Dad’s name Bob?

 

[NJCat]

Is your Dad’s name Bob?

Nice.........

 

[gocatsgo2003]

No attacking other posters. If you feel the need to harass another poster, don't do it. What is considered attacking other posters?

• Bringing up their name in posts that they did not start or were not involved in, just to get a reaction from them.

Grow a pair.

 

[mikewebb68]

So, is anyone taking the bet? I heard a "maybe" from Bob so far....

If not, guessing we are all in agreement that we will have more BIG wins next year.

 

[mikewebb68]

I think this is exactly Mike's point. A lot of people are saying we will be worse next year, when in fact, we could have more wins in the B1G. I don't see anyone tripping over themselves to take this bet after bitching and moaning like it's the end of the world.

(X) getsit

 

[Turk]

It is time to step right up and put your reputation where your mouth is and make a screenname wager!

This will be a simple one:

Me: We will have a better BIG record next season. meaning 5 conference wins or more, including BTT.

You: We will have 4 conference wins or less including BTT.

If you win, you get to change my screenname to a name of your choosing.

I I win, I get to pick a brand-new screenname for you!

Now, for those who have already losf their screennames to me, I don't want to leave you out of the fun, so we will offer a board-ban wager to you. If you win, I can't post on any board here (yes, even the Rock, which I pay for) for a full calendar year (12-month period) I can only lurk. However, if you lose, you can't post on any board here for a full calendar year!

I suspect that I will receive immediate action here from the "sky is falling, we're the worst team ever, CC has absolutely no plan, why would he, he's a D-1 coach.." crowd, so this will be strictly first come, first serve!

Good luck-- hopefully this will be more of a sweat than my past two screenname wagers were!

What a doom and gloomer you are.
I'll take your bet by raising the bar. I'll raise the bar to 7 wins. You just need to bet that we only win 6 or less. Deal?
Please don't sell the program short. I raised your total by 35% win total minimum. Deal or no deal? I have been waiting for a deal to get you off the board. This is an easy one. You sold the team cheap, therefore you must not think too highly of our program. I want to shout big mouth bi polar guys like you up by raising the bar. When I compare my deal for you, I've given you much better chances at success, based on your own perspective. Deal or no Deal?

 

[Turk]

So, is anyone taking the bet? I heard a "maybe" from Bob so far....

If not, guessing we are all in agreement that we will have more BIG wins next year.

I'll raise your bet. Your proposal was offensive to any person who bleeds purple. I'll give you the same deal but I'll take 7 wins or more, including BTT. You will take 6 wins or less. Deal or no deal? Otherwise clam up.

 

[mikewebb68]

I'll raise your bet. Your proposal was offensive to any person who bleeds purple. I'll give you the same deal but I'll take 7 wins. You will take 6 wins or less. Deal or no deal? Otherwise clam up.

Nope. And not clamming up. It wasn't offensive because people were posting here as if we wouldn't win ONE BIG game next year...try to keep up...

 

[mikewebb68]

What a doom and gloomer you are.
I'll take your bet by raising the bar. I'll raise the bar to 7 wins. You just need to bet that we only win 6 or less. Deal?
Please don't sell the program short. I raised your total by 35% win total minimum. Deal or no deal? I have been waiting for a deal to get you off the board. This is an easy one. You sold the team cheap, therefore you must not think too highly of our program. I want to shout big mouth bi polar guys like you up by raising the bar. When I compare my deal for you, I've given you much better chances at success, based on your own perspective. Deal or no Deal?

Uh, Turk, I am on the OTHER side of the bet, saying we will win more than we did this season. So if you're on the same side of the bet as me it doesn't work...

 

[IGNORE]

Is your Dad’s name Bob?

Hoosier daddy

 

[IGNORE]

(X) getsit

Great a five win team. Maybe a six win team. Boy, that sounds fun. How much would one of them purple seat season tix cost me? I cannot think of any better or more entertaining way to spend my expendable income.

This must be how the Cubs survived for a hundred some years.

 

[mikewebb68]

Great a five win team. Maybe a six win team. Boy, that sounds fun. How much would one of them purple seat season tix cost me? I cannot think of any better or more entertaining way to spend my expendable income.

This must be how the Cubs survived for a hundred some years.

Articulate post always, but nothing to do with the wager, though, From your posts, I feel that you would be surprised if we win ONE BIG game next year, nonetheless win more games than we won this year with Pardon and Law. Should be an easy bet for someone like you, who appears to lack confidence in our team and coach next year. Wouldn't you be glad to have me off the board for a whole year?

 

[IGNORE]

Articulate post always, but nothing to do with the wager, though, From your posts, I feel that you would be surprised if we win ONE BIG game next year, nonetheless win more games than we won this year with Pardon and Law. Should be an easy bet for someone like you, who appears to lack confidence in our team and coach next year. Wouldn't you be glad to have me off the board for a whole year?

You make a lot of assumptions. Sorry that you cannot understand my post. I guess we just have to end the discussion because we must speak different languages and I don’t know how to translate the last post into something that you will actually offer a responsive reply.

 

[IGNORE]

Articulate post always, but nothing to do with the wager, though, From your posts, I feel that you would be surprised if we win ONE BIG game next year, nonetheless win more games than we won this year with Pardon and Law. Should be an easy bet for someone like you, who appears to lack confidence in our team and coach next year. Wouldn't you be glad to have me off the board for a whole year?

Also, what is your in conference win prediction for next year? I’ll hang up and listen as you dance around without offering a reply. The truth of your answer has to disturb you more than you want to admit.

 

[ricko654321]

A central bank cuts its interest rate during a recession to boost growth and raises it during expansion to limit inflation. A problem arises if the rate is already near zero during an economic slowdown, since there is no more room to cut the rate. This condition is called the zero lower bound, and describes a condition where the central bank has a limited range of choice. Mikewebb’s bet comes after a year when the Cats are near bottom: they can’t get much worse, recordwise. 0-4 wins is the total universe for winning the bet on the downside. On the upside, the Cats could win anywhere from 5 to 23 games, a much larger set of outcomes. The analogy is that like a central banker with a prevailing interest rate near zero, the bettor taking the downside have limited hope of success.

Yeah, I know how central banks work. Your comparison still doesn’t make sense haha. 4 wins is not the zero bound. It’s more like 1%. And also, I would urge you to look at Europe and Japan. In any event, it was a decent try, I just think poorly executed. There were better analogies out there that made more sense intellectually.