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Low/Mid Major Conference Tournaments

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ColumbusCatFan1

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Jun 18, 2005
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ALL TOURNAMENTS HAVE FINISHED

TOTAL NIT BID THIEVES: 14 or 15

America East
#1 Stony Brook

Atlantic Sun
#1 North Florida ELIMINATED

Big Sky
#1 Weber State

Big South
#1 High Point ELIMINATED

Big West
#1 Hawaii

Colonial*
#1 Hofstra ELIMINATED

Conference USA
#1 UAB ELIMINATED

Horizon
#1 Valparaiso ELIMINATED**

Metro Atlantic
#1 Monmouth ELIMINATED**

Mid American
#1 Akron ELIMINATED

Mid Eastern Atlantic
#1 Hampton

Metro Atlantic
#1 Monmouth ELIMINATED**

Missouri Valley***
#1 Wichita State ELIMINATED

Mountain West
#1 San Diego State ELIMINATED

Northeast
#1 Wagner ELIMINATED

Ohio Valley
#1 Belmont ELIMINATED

Patriot
#1 Bucknell ELIMINATED

Southern
#1 Chattanooga

Southland
#1 Stephen F. Austin

Southwestern Athletic
#1 Texas Southern ELIMINATED

Summit
#1 IP Fort Wayne ELIMINATED

Sunbelt
#1 Arkansas Little Rock

Western Athletic
#1 New Mexico State ELIMINATED

West Coast****
#1 St. Mary's ELIMINATED


*UNC Wilmington may have received an at large NIT bid had Hofstra won the Colonial

**While Valparaiso and Monmouth have a shot at receiving at large NCAA bids, births for both squads would simply knock other NCAA bubble teams down to the NIT instead

***Northern Iowa was not projected to make the NCAA tournament and was at best, a long shot for the NIT heading into "arch madness". Even if Wichita State makes the NCAA tournament as an at large, UNI's NCAA bid bumps another NCAA bubble team down to the NIT.

****Gonzaga would have been a lock for an at large bid had St. Mary's won the WCC tournament
 
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ColumbusCatFan1 said:
Atlantic Sun
March 3rd - Semifinal: #1 North Florida vs #4 Florida Gulf Coast

Patriot
March 3rd - Quarterfinal: #1 Bucknell vs #9 Holy Cross
Click to expand...

FGCU massacring UNF in the second half, up 30.

Holy Cross and Bucknell headed to OT.

Edit: Now headed to 2OT in Lewisburg.

Edit: FGCU wins by 33, and we have our first NIT auto bid handed out to North Florida.

Edit: Holy Cross beats top-seeded Bucknell 77-72 in 2OT and we have another NIT auto bid.
 
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Styre said:
FGCU massacring UNF in the second half, up 30.

Holy Cross and Bucknell headed to OT.

Edit: Now headed to 2OT in Lewisburg.

Edit: FGCU wins by 33, and we have our first NIT auto bid handed out to North Florida.

Edit: Holy Cross beats top-seeded Bucknell 77-72 in 2OT and we have another NIT auto bid.
Click to expand...
Not so fast! The A-Sun Final is Florida Gulf Coast vs Stetson.
Stetson is inelidgible for the NCAAs. If Stetson wins vs FGCU, UNF goes to the Big Dance
 
[QUOTE="Styre, post:

Edit: Holy Cross beats top-seeded Bucknell 77-72 in 2OT and we have another NIT auto bid.[/QUOTE]

Thus is great for Lehigh, the #2 seed. Let's go, Brown! Let's go, White!
 
Belmont has been eliminated by Austin Peay, so that's another NIT bid handed out.
 
Always the pessimist, I just ran a funny scenario where every conference tournament was won by a team who otherwise wouldn't have been considered for an NCAA or NIT bid (TCU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Washington State, Tennessee...all the way through the 31 conferences with a tournament (taking into account actual games played thus far). Suffice to say, that would make for a tough bubble with teams like Notre Dame, Syracuse and Pittsburgh missing the NCAA tournament and teams like USC, Dayton and Ohio State missing the NIT. OK, so I am not worried Notre Dame will miss the Big Dance or that Ohio State won't get an NIT bid...but my little thought experiment did shed light that we are already off to a bad start with North Florida, Bucknell and Belmont taking spots in the NIT. We need good teams to hold serve.
 
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Dugan15 said:
Always the pessimist, I just ran a funny scenario where every conference tournament was won by a team who otherwise wouldn't have been considered for an NCAA or NIT bid (TCU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Washington State, Tennessee...all the way through the 31 conferences with a tournament (taking into account actual games played thus far). Suffice to say, that would make for a tough bubble with teams like Notre Dame, Syracuse and Pittsburgh missing the NCAA tournament and teams like USC, Dayton and Ohio State missing the NIT. OK, so I am not worried Notre Dame will miss the Big Dance or that Ohio State won't get an NIT bid...but my little thought experiment did shed light that we are already off to a bad start with North Florida, Bucknell and Belmont taking spots in the NIT. We need good teams to hold serve.
Click to expand...

True --- but the way I'm looking at it now is we make the NIT or we all meet in Vegas for a week. Win-win!
 
With Michigan losing last night, that hurts Northwestern even more. The big ten will only get six in the NCAA tourney. OSU and UM are locks for nit which now takes another potential spot away from NU
 
olshin said:
Who coaches Holy Cross again? Oh right .... (ducks)
Click to expand...
The Cinderella Crusaders are on CBS Sports Network at 11 Central today, for those who go deep on their sports packages.

Me, I'm pulling for at least three emphatic shoulder shrugs, and at least one chin-in-hand grumpy face.
 
FGCU wins the Atlantic Sun and North Florida officially becomes another NIT bid thief.
 
UPDATED 3/7

Through March 6th, no #1 seeds have yet to win their respective conference tournaments. This trend could significantly impede NU's chances of an at large bid if it continues. In such a scenario, Thursday's match up against Michigan could theoretically become an NIT elimination game for the 'Cats.
 
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Another #1 seed goes down as Monmouth is dispatched by Iona, though Monmouth could receive an at-large bid to the NCAAs.

And UNC Wilmington just took out Hofstra, so there goes another one.
 
Styre said:
Another #1 seed goes down as Monmouth is dispatched by Iona, though Monmouth could receive an at-large bid to the NCAAs.

And UNC Wilmington just took out Hofstra, so there goes another one.
Click to expand...

The UNC Wilimington/Hofstra game is not really a big deal though. Either loser would most likely be going to the NIT anyway. Both have top 60 RPI's and therefore are well within NIT territory anyway. So no NIT bid thief there.

Of course Monmouth not going to the NIT via an at-large bid will push someone else on the bubble down, so technically they are still an NIT bid thief even if they do get the at-large bid to the Big Dance, which they most certainly should based on who they beat this year.
 
Valparaiso about to lose in the semi finals of the Horizon Tourament. That one will sting! Valpo with an outside chance at an at-large bid to the Big Dance, but not likely.
 
Bradleywildcatsfan said:
The UNC Wilimington/Hofstra game is not really a big deal though. Either loser would most likely be going to the NIT anyway. Both have top 60 RPI's and therefore are well within NIT territory anyway. So no NIT bid thief there.

Of course Monmouth not going to the NIT via an at-large bid will push someone else on the bubble down, so technically they are still an NIT bid thief even if they do get the at-large bid to the Big Dance, which they most certainly should based on who they beat this year.
Click to expand...

The problem with this (and the Valpo situation) is that if someone who was never gonna get the NIT bid as an at large takes an NCAA spot with the automatic bid, it means someone who was heading to the NCAA's will be pushed into the NIT, taking a spot from us. It doesn't matter if they get at-large bids. We're still gonna lose the spot. Any regular season champ in these conferences (except perhaps Horizon where you have two NCAA/NIT caliber teams) that loses means an NIT spot was thieved from us. :(
 
EvanstonCat said:
The problem with this (and the Valpo situation) is that if someone who was never gonna get the NIT bid as an at large takes an NCAA spot with the automatic bid, it means someone who was heading to the NCAA's will be pushed into the NIT, taking a spot from us. It doesn't matter if they get at-large bids. We're still gonna lose the spot. Any regular season champ in these conferences (except perhaps Horizon where you have two NCAA/NIT caliber teams) that loses means an NIT spot was thieved from us. :(
Click to expand...

I think I said that in my previous posts. And again, like I said before, both UNC Wilmington and Hofstra were going to be going to at least the NIT anyway. Both had top 60 RPIs which would have been enough for the NIT anyway. So no loss of a spot in that game. Monmouth losing however does take an NIT spot since Iona would not of been going even to the NIT.

Ditto with the West Coast Conference. Of the semifinal teams, Pepperdine lost, and did not have an NIT type of resume. The remaining three teams however were all going at least to the NIT anyway, so no loss of a spot their either, regardless of how the teams are distributed. Two to the Big Dance will push a bubble team from another conference down to the NIT. One to the Big Dance, and two from that conference will go to the NIT.
 
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UPDATED 3/9

#1 seeds continue to drop like flies. We are up to 9 or 10 bid thieves with only 12 conference tournaments completed. Currently, Chattanooga is the only top seed to snag an NCAA auto bid.

I'm now viewing Northwestern's Thursday match up against Michigan as a must win.
 
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ColumbusCatFan1 said:
UPDATED 3/9

#1 seeds continue to drop like flies. We are up to 9 or 10 bid thieves with only 12 conference tournaments completed. Currently, Chattanooga is the only top seed to snag an NCAA auto bid.

I'm now viewing Northwestern's Thursday match up against Michigan as a must win.
Click to expand...

Just looking at the conference tournaments that are left, I think Northwestern can still sneak in even if they lose to Michigan. But yeah, I think a win against them would probably not be a bad idea considering what is going on. There are 20 conference tournaments to go, but at least the top 8 or so that have not really started yet will yield NCAA Tournament at-large bids to the first place teams that don't win (and these are conferences with many multiple bids as well). The ones that still worry me a lot are conferences like the MAC, Mountain West, Big West, and some of the lower tiered conferences where any team can win the tournament. It still though would be surprising if the NIT committee left out a 20 win team from a Power 5 conference, despite the weak schedule. But if the #1 seeds continue falling like they are, anything is possible.
 
Bradleywildcatsfan said:
The ones that still worry me a lot are conferences like the MAC, Mountain West, Big West, and some of the lower tiered conferences where any team can win the tournament. It still though would be surprising if the NIT committee left out a 20 win team from a Power 5 conference, despite the weak schedule. But if the #1 seeds continue falling like they are, anything is possible.
Click to expand...

I thought 20 regular season wins would lock it up too (I went back 10-15 years and failed to find a scenario in which such a team was snubbed from the NIT). The A-10, American, Big East, and power 5 are deep enough that it's very unlikely one of their high seeds outside of the NCAA/NIT territory would run the table (although Georgia did it before). That being said, it's not impossible for a few of these teams to play their way into the NIT mix by making some noise over the next few days (Kansas State comes to mind).

Here are the conferences that should scare us most:

America East
Big Sky
Big West
C-USA
MAC
MEAC
Mountain West
Southland
Sunbelt
SWAC
WAC

That's 11 leagues that pose threats. For argument's sake, lets say half or so of those winners are bid thieves. Now we are looking at a nearly 50% overall reduction of possible NIT bids (well into the five seed line). I can't see the 'Cats getting in without beating Michigan, if the bubble were to become that stiff.

If there ever were going to be a 20 win power 5 school to miss the NIT, it would have to be NU, right? Classic.
 
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backdoorpass said:
In 2003-04, we missed the NIT when we had an RPI of 99 and went 6-9 against top 100 RPI teams. And we had an equivalent B10 record of 7-9 (only a 16 game schedule then) going into the BTT. Aside from a couple bad losses early in the season, we had a better case to make the NIT that season.
Click to expand...

We actually went 8-8 in the B1G that season. But we were also below .500 overall and thus ineligible for the NIT, so the resume didn't matter.
 
EvanstonCat said:
The problem with this (and the Valpo situation) is that if someone who was never gonna get the NIT bid as an at large takes an NCAA spot with the automatic bid, it means someone who was heading to the NCAA's will be pushed into the NIT, taking a spot from us. It doesn't matter if they get at-large bids. We're still gonna lose the spot. Any regular season champ in these conferences (except perhaps Horizon where you have two NCAA/NIT caliber teams) that loses means an NIT spot was thieved from us. :(
Click to expand...

The constant upsets of No. 1 teams are not only bad for NU, but not great for the NCAA tournament. Most of these smaller conferences have little chance of winning a game in the big tournament anyway, and in case after case they're not sending their best teams to the tourney.
 
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Styre said:
We actually went 8-8 in the B1G that season. But we were also below .500 overall and thus ineligible for the NIT, so the resume didn't matter.
Click to expand...

You're right. I got my years mixed up when looking up details in two different places. 2001-02 was the year in which we had the 7-9 B10 regular season record and went 7-10 against RPI Top 100 teams. Our overall record was 16-13 and we were eligible for the NIT, but our RPI was not good - 124.

The 99 RPI was in 2003-04.

I'll remove my original post as it is inaccurate. Thanks for checking my work!
 
ColumbusCatFan1 said:
UPDATED 3/9

The Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and Southland conference tournaments begin today.


NIT BID THIEVES: 9-10

America East
March 12th - Final: #1 Stony Brook vs #3 Vermont

Atlantic Sun
#1 North Florida ELIMINATED

Big South
#1 High Point ELIMINATED

Colonial*
#1 Hofstra ELIMINATED

Horizon
#1 Valparaiso ELIMINATED**

Metro Atlantic
#1 Monmouth ELIMINATED**

Mid Eastern Atlantic
March 9th - Quarterfinal: #1 Hampton vs #9 Morgan State

Missouri Valley***
#1 Wichita State ELIMINATED

Northeast
#1 Wagner ELIMINATED

Ohio Valley
#1 Belmont ELIMINATED

Southern
#1 Chattanooga

Summit
#1 IP Fort Wayne ELIMINATED

Patriot
#1 Bucknell ELIMINATED

West Coast****
#1 St. Mary's ELIMINATED


*UNC Wilmington may have received an at large NIT bid had Hofstra won the Colonial

**While Valparaiso and Monmouth have a shot at receiving at large NCAA bids, births for both squads would simply knock other NCAA bubble teams down to the NIT instead

***Northern Iowa was not projected to make the NCAA tournament and was at best, a long shot for the NIT heading into "arch madness". Even if Wichita State makes the NCAA tournament as an at large, UNI's NCAA bid bumps another NCAA bubble team down to the NIT.

****Gonzaga would have been a lock for an at large bid had St. Mary's won the WCC tournament
Click to expand...
The Mountain West is pretty weak this year, San Diego State has been totally dominant. But it appears the Aztecs will need to win the conference tournament in Las Vegas in order to be assured of getting a bid to the big dance, just winning the conference outright is not going to be enough. The Aztecs have been playing well and could surprise if they make it into the big dance.
 
UPDATED 3/11

#1 UAB falls to #8 Western Kentucky in the C-USA tournament. All other top seeds advanced or are on a bye.
 
UPDATED 3/12

#1 Texas Southern falls to #4 Southern in a SWAC semifinal. The remaining top seeds that played today have all advanced to the semis or finals of their respective conference tournaments
 
UPDATED 3/13 (Final Update)

A big slate of finals Saturday with the #1 seeds going 5-3 overall. The Sunbelt will wrap up tomorrow with #1 Arkansas-Little Rock still alive.

PM UPDATE:

Arkansas Little Rock won the Sunbelt. Total bid thieves: 14 or 15
 
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Stony Brook won yesterday, so that saves you a tiny bit for the NIT, but it also means that you are now what, one of three or four teams left in D 1 who have never ever played in the NCAA> One thing is for sure, Northwestern is part of a very exclusive club
 
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