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Another difference between at least Beran and Kopp is that Beran is a quality defender. I can't imagine Kopp doing the job of Ron Harper Jr that Beran did last week. Beran is also better on the boards.
The lack of any attempt to be aggressive on offense by Beran is problematic. He is a WAY better defender than Kopp. However, if you are out there as a 3 & D player you have to take and then make some 3’s. Beran might not be Bruce Bowen on D, but he is one of the better Defenders on the team.
 
The lack of any attempt to be aggressive on offense by Beran is problematic. He is a WAY better defender than Kopp. However, if you are out there as a 3 & D player you have to take and then make some 3’s. Beran might not be Bruce Bowen on D, but he is one of the better Defenders on the team.
Not disagreeing as Kopp's defense was always poor. Is it a comparison that his worthy though? Beran does not guard wings. I find it relevant to evaluate Beran's defense against Williams or Nance, as those are the guys who will pick up Beran's assignment if he is put on the bench. But I do not find it relevant at all to compare him to Kopp or Audige.
 
I watched a day late, on Wednesday night. It is shocking how little Kopp moves on offense. He only plays because of the good things written about him 10 months ago.
 
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... His supposed ability as a recruiting guru is BS to me, so he simply MUST develop they guys he has. No real option ...
I think anybody who would use the word "guru" or the equivalent for his recruiting is crazy. Even if it's measured on the low Northwestern scale. He's done some strong things with recruiting, but there's been some real bombs. And too often, he hasn't been quick enough to recognize those mistakes.

But I'd LOVE to know the reality of recruiting at NU - that mix between who REALLY can get into the school and who signs on the dotted line. Anybody who discounts that isn't living the NU reality. I get the feeling Collins does pretty well with that as a measurement.

But as I've said, and as Kopp demonstrates, just because you recruit reasonably in the top 100 doesn't mean you're getting the job done. You need to be able to find the right guys outside the top 100 also.

Obviously, it's a b*t&h of a nut to crack.
 
Last season, Kopp and Beran were both subpar rebounders for guys playing small forward and power forward, respectively.

Rebounds Per 40 minutes...
Nance 9.3, Young 9.1, Gaines 7.2, Beran 4.8, Audige 4.5, Greer 4.1, Kopp 3.6, Buie 2.9, Berry 2.7

This year, we are generally hitting the boards harder....
Nance 8.8, Young 11.3, ROPER 7.4, Beran 7.1, Audige 6.5, Greer 3.5, Williams 5.8, Buie 3.8, Berry 3.9

We debate how effective Beran is as a defender. I don't view him as a plus defender, especially when he is overmatched physically. He does some things well on the ball, when he is one on one with his guy, but as a team defender, he is the wildcat most likely to get caught out of position, in my opinion.
 
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Not disagreeing as Kopp's defense was always poor. Is it a comparison that his worthy though? Beran does not guard wings. I find it relevant to evaluate Beran's defense against Williams or Nance, as those are the guys who will pick up Beran's assignment if he is put on the bench. But I do not find it relevant at all to compare him to Kopp or Audige.
That’s fair. I was disappointed that we didn’t attack Kopp on that end. However, they had Kopp on Greer and Roper most of the game. We know they are reluctant to shoot.

I also would have put periodic pressure on Charlie Sheen when he was bringing the ball up. He was gassed at the end, but I think we could have got him doing his Brad Davison moves earlier in the game.
 
Last season, Kopp and Beran were both subpar rebounders for guys playing small forward and power forward, respectively.

Rebounds Per 40 minutes...
Nance 9.3, Young 9.1, Gaines 7.2, Beran 4.8, Audige 4.5, Greer 4.1, Kopp 3.6, Buie 2.9, Berry 2.7

This year, we are generally hitting the boards harder....
Nance 8.8, Young 11.3, ROPER 7.4, Beran 7.1, Audige 6.5, Greer 3.5, Williams 5.8, Buie 3.8, Berry 3.9

We debate how effective Beran is as a defender. I don't view him as a plus defender, especially when he is overmatched physically. He does some things well on the ball, when he is one on one with his guy, but as a team defender, he is the wildcat most likely to get caught out of position, in my opinion.
There is a lot more to defense than rebounding. If you want to talk plus defenders, I believe NU only has two. Chase and Roper. To me, Beran is in the group of decent defenders that I don’t believe hurt you. Most guys on the team are either this group or below.
 
Yes, but...

Pete Nance developed. Ryan Greer developed. Boo Buie developed. Ryan Young developed. Dererk Pardon developed. Scottie Lindsey developed. Bryant McIntosh. Vic Law. Sanjay Lumpkin. Nate Taphorn. Gavin Skelly. All guys with different skill sets, different roles, different expectations and levels of talent, but they all undeniably got better under 4-5 years of coaching from Collins' staff.

(Other guys didn't, yes - largely recruiting misses and transfer flops.)

Kopp was given a starting job from day 1. He was the number one option on the offense for two years. Collins repeatedly ran sets to get Kopp open looks. He had the freedom to move without the ball, to score off the bounce, to take any 3 he wanted at any time. He wasn't very good at it. His best scoring output, his sophomore year, was 13 ppg - but on 11 attempts per game. That's pretty similar to the ratios and possession usage rate that Audige has had in his time here, except Chase chips in a lot more rebounds, assists, and steals, and he's often guarding the other team's best perimeter player.

Chris Collins gave Kopp every opportunity to be the star on a Big Ten team. You can criticize Collins for the miss if you want; that's fair, and he'll take the criticism. But a lot of it is on Kopp as well, and the reason people are salty and enjoying the win was his clear implication that the reason he sucked was because of Northwestern, when in reality Northwestern sucked largely in part because he didn't produce what was expected of him vis a vis the role he was given.

I hope he has a happy and healthy life and no one needs to give him any more grief than the mild reprobation he got last night, but I find it fascinating that anyone would be surprised he got it. As far as how his teammates felt: those who were in the building last night as the last seconds were counting down probably saw what I did. If you don't think this win meant more to the guys that Kopp abandoned after multiple years of playing together, I don't know what to tell you. The desire to stay in touch off the court does not change the desire to kick some ass on it.
Fantastic take - expressed what I feel about this topic, probably more eloquently than I would have.
 
That’s fair. I was disappointed that we didn’t attack Kopp on that end. However, they had Kopp on Greer and Roper most of the game. We know they are reluctant to shoot.

I also would have put periodic pressure on Charlie Sheen when he was bringing the ball up. He was gassed at the end, but I think we could have got him doing his Brad Davison moves earlier in the game.
I was paying attention to who Kopp was guarding myself. It was, not surprisingly, the least threatening players in our lineups.

I agree on pressing Galloway. It appears he was the only player available with any PG experience (while not being a PG).
 
My guess is that we "should" have put Audige or Roper on the ball when Galloway was bringing it up, but (hopefully) Collins considered it and decided that he didn't want those guys getting foul trouble.
 
Collins has had 24 players play at least one year under him heading into this season. Looking at Box Plus Minus, the following players improved every year:

Vic Law
Nathan Taphorn
Alex Olah
Pete Nance
Ryan Young
Sanjay Lumpkin
Ryan Greer
Boo Buie
Robbie Beran
Dave Sobolewski

These players had their senior year be their best year despite non-linear progress:

Dererk Pardon
Drew Crawford
Tre Demps

Linear progress but backslid in final year:

Scottie Lindsey
Miller Kopp
Jordan Ash

Of the remaining players, we have the ones derailed by injuries:

Aaron Falzon
Jershon Cobb
Anthony Gaines

Which leaves the following:

Bryant McIntosh - Peaked his sophomore year, was still good the tourney year, and then injuries hurt his senior year
Gavin Skelly - Solid first year, disappointing second, and great tourney year before the disappointment of 2018
Benson - Got worse every year and transferred
Isiah Brown - Got worse and transferred
AJ Turner - Was roughly the same both years

I think there's clear evidence that our players have developed under Collins, aside from those who had major injuries, the few true busts that played in Benson and Brown, and whatever the hell happened in 2018, whether it was Allstate, being high on their supply after the tourney, or clashing locker room personalities, given that BMac, Lindsey and Skelly all had worse senior years. The issue is the talent level of our players, and where they are starting from being lower than other teams.
 
Collins has had 24 players play at least one year under him heading into this season. Looking at Box Plus Minus, the following players improved every year:

Vic Law
Nathan Taphorn
Alex Olah
Pete Nance
Ryan Young
Sanjay Lumpkin
Ryan Greer
Boo Buie
Robbie Beran
Dave Sobolewski

These players had their senior year be their best year despite non-linear progress:

Dererk Pardon
Drew Crawford
Tre Demps

Linear progress but backslid in final year:

Scottie Lindsey
Miller Kopp
Jordan Ash

Of the remaining players, we have the ones derailed by injuries:

Aaron Falzon
Jershon Cobb
Anthony Gaines

Which leaves the following:

Bryant McIntosh - Peaked his sophomore year, was still good the tourney year, and then injuries hurt his senior year
Gavin Skelly - Solid first year, disappointing second, and great tourney year before the disappointment of 2018
Benson - Got worse every year and transferred
Isiah Brown - Got worse and transferred
AJ Turner - Was roughly the same both years

I think there's clear evidence that our players have developed under Collins, aside from those who had major injuries, the few true busts that played in Benson and Brown, and whatever the hell happened in 2018, whether it was Allstate, being high on their supply after the tourney, or clashing locker room personalities, given that BMac, Lindsey and Skelly all had worse senior years. The issue is the talent level of our players, and where they are starting from being lower than other teams.

Thats an interesting study. My issue would be with your benchmark. Comparing our players progress under Collins to "no progress" is not the best way to rate Collins' player development.

The benchmark has to be "normal progress" because the typical player improves over time, getting more physical, gaining experience, playing better.

I don't know how that translates to Box Score Plus Minus, though. Maybe +1 each year is normal.
 
Collins has had 24 players play at least one year under him heading into this season. Looking at Box Plus Minus, the following players improved every year:

Vic Law
Nathan Taphorn
Alex Olah
Pete Nance
Ryan Young
Sanjay Lumpkin
Ryan Greer
Boo Buie
Robbie Beran
Dave Sobolewski

These players had their senior year be their best year despite non-linear progress:

Dererk Pardon
Drew Crawford
Tre Demps

Linear progress but backslid in final year:

Scottie Lindsey
Miller Kopp
Jordan Ash

Of the remaining players, we have the ones derailed by injuries:

Aaron Falzon
Jershon Cobb
Anthony Gaines

Which leaves the following:

Bryant McIntosh - Peaked his sophomore year, was still good the tourney year, and then injuries hurt his senior year
Gavin Skelly - Solid first year, disappointing second, and great tourney year before the disappointment of 2018
Benson - Got worse every year and transferred
Isiah Brown - Got worse and transferred
AJ Turner - Was roughly the same both years

I think there's clear evidence that our players have developed under Collins, aside from those who had major injuries, the few true busts that played in Benson and Brown, and whatever the hell happened in 2018, whether it was Allstate, being high on their supply after the tourney, or clashing locker room personalities, given that BMac, Lindsey and Skelly all had worse senior years. The issue is the talent level of our players, and where they are starting from being lower than other teams.
Improvement, in the absolute sense, is the norm for college athletes. They get stronger, develop physically, get more game time, etc. It’s actually a disaster when any recruit doesn’t improve because just based on physical development they should be much better as a senior than freshman.

Therefore the right metric isn’t did this recruit improve at all, but did he improve enough relative to the conference average and his ranking as a recruit. Based on your analysis, Beran has improved, and therefore is counted as a ‘win’ for Collins. However, recall that Beran was a 4 star and top 120ish player as a recruit. Has Beran met or exceeded those expectations coming in? How has Collins helped his players overachieve? How many of Collins recruits end up disappointing relative to their incoming rating? Those are the correct questions to ask, not did any one particular recruit get better over his time here. Of course a 21 year old is going to be better than an 18 year old, that is natural.
 
If that's the case, why did Indiana recruit him as a transfer?. Sometimes your anti-CCC bias gets your logic all askew.
Woodson is obviously a lousy talent evaluator. Worse than CC. Kopp looks like a player, problem is he doesn’t like his role and for whatever reason his shooting seems to keep getting worse
 
Improvement, in the absolute sense, is the norm for college athletes. They get stronger, develop physically, get more game time, etc. It’s actually a disaster when any recruit doesn’t improve because just based on physical development they should be much better as a senior than freshman.

Therefore the right metric isn’t did this recruit improve at all, but did he improve enough relative to the conference average and his ranking as a recruit. Based on your analysis, Beran has improved, and therefore is counted as a ‘win’ for Collins. However, recall that Beran was a 4 star and top 120ish player as a recruit. Has Beran met or exceeded those expectations coming in? How has Collins helped his players overachieve? How many of Collins recruits end up disappointing relative to their incoming rating? Those are the correct questions to ask, not did any one particular recruit get better over his time here. Of course a 21 year old is going to be better than an 18 year old, that is natural.
Progress is assessed by definition based on the games as played. If our player’s performance gets better, he has by definition improved vs. the conference against which he plays. (You can still argue the initial recruiting rankings).
 
Progress is assessed by definition based on the games as played. If our player’s performance gets better, he has by definition improved vs. the conference against which he plays. (You can still argue the initial recruiting rankings).
Way to get pedantic about it. If you were sincere in making an argument about NU as a development program, it seems pretty obvious that you'd want to be looking at growth past what you'd normally expect over a kid playing basketball daily from the time he was 18 to 22. I guess maybe there are places where 22 year olds are less physically, mentally, and emotionally developed when they were 18, but they aren't typically D1 basketball programs. :rolleyes:
 
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Way to get pedantic about it. If you were sincere in making an argument about NU as a development program, it seems pretty obvious that you'd want to be looking at growth past what you'd normally expect over a kid playing basketball daily from the time he was 18 to 22. I guess maybe there are places where 22 year olds are less physically, mentally, and emotionally developed when they were 18, but they aren't typically D1 basketball programs. :rolleyes:
It appears hard for you to accept your argument was flawed, so you throw shade? Being sincere about it requires trying to think it through.
 
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Progress is assessed by definition based on the games as played. If our player’s performance gets better, he has by definition improved vs. the conference against which he plays. (You can still argue the initial recruiting rankings).
That’s not correct. Progress remains relative to a peer group, which is the other players in the same age class in the conference. A senior will naturally be better than the freshmen in the conference. But if your team’s upperclassmen progress less or slower than your conference peers, if your seniors aren’t as good as the other seniors in the conference because of lack of development, your team’s results will reflect that. You are playing games against other players, not against yourself. The measurement needs to be relative. Getting better in and of itself means nothing. You need to get better than the other players in your conference.
 
That’s not correct. Progress remains relative to a peer group, which is the other players in the same age class in the conference. A senior will naturally be better than the freshmen in the conference. But if your team’s upperclassmen progress less or slower than your conference peers, if your seniors aren’t as good as the other seniors in the conference because of lack of development, your team’s results will reflect that. You are playing games against other players, not against yourself. The measurement needs to be relative. Getting better in and of itself means nothing. You need to get better than the other players in your conference.
We are now saying the same thing. It is all relative. I just said that the mere fact that you play games shows how you are doing relative to others.
 
We are now saying the same thing. It is all relative. I just said that the mere fact that you play games shows how you are doing relative to others.
Your argument as I understand it is that because we’ve had players improve, therefore that demonstrates we are doing a good job developmentally. I’m saying the rate and magnitude of the improvement matters, especially when taking into account raw talent as a starting point. Beran has improved a bit sure, has he improved to the level expected given that he was a 4 star recruit? That answer is a clear no. On the flip side, Buie has improved a lot. Collins problem is that he has too many Berans and not enough Buies.
 
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Your argument as I understand it is that because we’ve had players improve, therefore that demonstrates we are doing a good job developmentally. I’m saying the rate and magnitude of the improvement matters, especially when taking into account raw talent as a starting point. Beran has improved a bit sure, has he improved to the level expected given that he was a 4 star recruit? That answer is a clear no. On the flip side, Buie has improved a lot. Collins problem is that he has too many Berans and not enough Buies.
I don’t disagree on Beran. He has not fully lived up to expectations. I would call it bad recruiting before I call it bad development. Beran is just not getting the concepts quickly enough to allow him to play fully confidently. Even when he does seem to play confidently, he still doesn’t seem to fully get it.

I agree rate and magnitude of development matter. These manifest themselves as we look at how our players do year over year against the competition, who also develop. If our guys on average do the same (worse/better), they have developed at the same rate and magnitude (worse/better).
 
It appears hard for you to accept your argument was flawed, so you throw shade? Being sincere about it requires trying to think it through.
:rolleyes:

It's very had for me to accept it based on the poorly thought out arguments you are making.
 
I don’t disagree on Beran. He has not fully lived up to expectations. I would call it bad recruiting before I call it bad development.
If you believe it is bad recruiting, why do you explain his not living up to expectations with an example of him not developing.
Beran is just not getting the concepts quickly enough to allow him to play fully confidently. Even when he does seem to play confidently, he still doesn’t seem to fully get it.
If you believe it is poor recruiting, you'd want to point to something that existed when he was being recruited that someone should have seen.
 
I always expect our discussion to end this way. Thanks for meeting my low expectations of you.
 
If you believe it is bad recruiting, why do you explain his not living up to expectations with an example of him not developing.

If you believe it is poor recruiting, you'd want to point to something that existed when he was being recruited that someone should have seen.
Last I checked, Beran has to think for himself.
 
I always expect our discussion to end this way. Thanks for meeting my low expectations of you.
The conversation ended with lovely agreement on the other thread, but if you don't want criticism, don't make bad arguments.
 
Last I checked, Beran has to think for himself.
Did he lack that ability when he was recruited? Missing that would be a recruiting problem. The inability for him to grasp those concepts once he got to campus despite having the cognitive ability to do so (which I'm quite certain he does) is a development problem. Understanding the difference is simple but important.
 
The conversation ended with lovely agreement on the other thread, but if you don't want criticism, don't make bad arguments.
Did he lack that ability when he was recruited? Missing that would be a recruiting problem. The inability for him to grasp those concepts once he got to campus despite having the cognitive ability to do so (which I'm quite certain he does) is a development problem. Understanding the difference is simple but important.
Yes - I said I thought it was a recruiting problem. Not everyone learns to execute well on what they are taught.
 
Yes - I said I thought it was a recruiting problem. Not everyone learns to execute well on what they are taught.
So, are you saying you thought he came to Northwestern with the inability to understand college basketball concepts? That would be a recruiting problem, but I humbly suggest that you'd be the only person who thinks that about Beran.

But, since you said "Not everyone learns to execute well on what they are taught" (my emphasis), it leads one to believe that you really believe it's the lack of development (growth around what he is supposed to learn) that you are noting.
 
Did he lack that ability when he was recruited? Missing that would be a recruiting problem. The inability for him to grasp those concepts once he got to campus despite having the cognitive ability to do so (which I'm quite certain he does) is a development problem. Understanding the difference is simple but important.
I haven’t really seen anyone here saying Beran hasn’t been a disappointment overall. Poor recruiting or poor development, none of us really know.

I can accept lack of development argument. However, if you want to claim that, why doesn’t CCC get similar credit for Boo or Ryan Young. Basically, no school of consequence offered either of them! Was that strong recruiting or development?
 
I haven’t really seen anyone here saying Beran hasn’t been a disappointment overall. Poor recruiting or poor development, none of us really know.

I can accept lack of development argument. However, if you want to claim that, why doesn’t CCC get similar credit for Boo or Ryan Young. Basically, no school of consequence offered either of them! Was that strong recruiting or development?
Happy to give Collins credit for Buie. Other successes he’s had with difference makers who overperformed their rankings: BMac, Pardon, Lindsey. Young is decent but not a needle mover at the end of the day. Problem isnt that Collins has had 0 success but that there aren’t enough guys like Buie and too many guys like Falzon, Beran, Rap, Kopp, Benson, Ash, Brown etc. If Lathon didn’t take himself out of contention and made it to campus he would have been another Collins disappointment.
 
I haven’t really seen anyone here saying Beran hasn’t been a disappointment overall. Poor recruiting or poor development, none of us really know.

I can accept lack of development argument. However, if you want to claim that, why doesn’t CCC get similar credit for Boo or Ryan Young. Basically, no school of consequence offered either of them! Was that strong recruiting or development?
Totally agree on Boo. That's why I was surprised people were bemoaning the recruiting loss of Mulcahy after he played well against the Cats. Mulcahy is a nice player, but would rather have Boo every day of the week and I really doubt NU signs both in that class if he comes to NU. I'm less sold on Young's development tho. He hasn't earned more minutes than he did as a frosh and his numbers haven't really jumped. Love him, but I don't see the major development there. But Nance is a nice example of development. He's a kid who was a high ranked recruit mostly on upside and he is realizing a lot of that upside.

That said, I'm not even saying Beran's lack of development is 100% on CCC. I'm sure he bears some of the responsibility, but I'm sure Beran does, too, and I don't know enough to know where the majority of it lies. I'm just saying that you can't have the complaints that Gordie has about Beran and call that a recruiting miss. If the Cats recruited him to play a power forward role akin to how a power forward is used at Michigan State, that would be a recruiting miss because that is a complete misuse of his skill set that one could see from high school.

I don't think the things Gordie identifies are the primary issues holding back Beran's development though. I doubt it's Beran's ability to understand the concepts CCC wants to use. I suspect it is more likely that for some reason he's never adjusted to the intensity and aggressiveness that it takes to play at this level. Kids change a ton between age 18 and 22 and things just haven't clicked for him to realize the potential people saw in him as a frosh. Hopefully, next year will see something click and he'll develop that intensity and assertiveness.
 
Totally agree on Boo. That's why I was surprised people were bemoaning the recruiting loss of Mulcahy after he played well against the Cats. Mulcahy is a nice player, but would rather have Boo every day of the week and I really doubt NU signs both in that class if he comes to NU. I'm less sold on Young's development tho. He hasn't earned more minutes than he did as a frosh and his numbers haven't really jumped. Love him, but I don't see the major development there. But Nance is a nice example of development. He's a kid who was a high ranked recruit mostly on upside and he is realizing a lot of that upside.

That said, I'm not even saying Beran's lack of development is 100% on CCC. I'm sure he bears some of the responsibility, but I'm sure Beran does, too, and I don't know enough to know where the majority of it lies. I'm just saying that you can't have the complaints that Gordie has about Beran and call that a recruiting miss. If the Cats recruited him to play a power forward role akin to how a power forward is used at Michigan State, that would be a recruiting miss because that is a complete misuse of his skill set that one could see from high school.

I don't think the things Gordie identifies are the primary issues holding back Beran's development though. I doubt it's Beran's ability to understand the concepts CCC wants to use. I suspect it is more likely that for some reason he's never adjusted to the intensity and aggressiveness that it takes to play at this level. Kids change a ton between age 18 and 22 and things just haven't clicked for him to realize the potential people saw in him as a frosh. Hopefully, next year will see something click and he'll develop that intensity and assertiveness.
It would be unusual for a player to come to college and not improve. In fact, it would be pretty damning. Where I think the disappointment here lies, at least with me, is that it doesn't seem like any of Collins' recruits have really broken out to become a star. Macintosh was close, which is why we all remember him so fondly and maybe Pardon, but most of the others we had high hopes for have been just ok.... especially post tourney teams - Falzon, Kopp, Nance, Beran.... None of them became the next John Shurna.
 
I wonder how much better Boo would if he didn’t spend a year sitting behind Pat Spencer, a cool story and a good player, but not a ‘playing for the future’ player.
 
I wonder how much better Boo would if he didn’t spend a year sitting behind Pat Spencer, a cool story and a good player, but not a ‘playing for the future’ player.
That's an interesting thought. Hadn't occurred to me, but it's also possible that not getting thrown so completely into the fire allowed him to develop at a more reasonable pace for a guy who wasn't super highly recruited.
 
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