More Summer "over thinking" - B1G SCHEDULE!

[backdoorpass]

I was going through our B1G schedule again, and I like our chances with this schedule.

The bottom of the league
Going into the season, there seems to be a reasonable consensus that the bottom 5 teams are expected to be Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois and Penn State. Fortunately, we have 8 games against these bottom 5 teams (Rutgers twice, Nebraska twice, Minnesota at home, Illinois twice and @ Penn State). Last year, we were pretty successful beating the teams below us in the league. I don't expect we'll win every game as there are certainly some decent teams in this group. Still, we have an opportunity to pad our win totals against the bottom of the league as we did last season.

The middle of the league
This is where we live or die. And this is where we failed to get over the hump last season. These games kept us from being a post-season team. We got the early season win against Wisconsin, but then dropped 2 to Maryland, 2 to Ohio State, 2 to Michigan (including one in the BTT) as well as the lone game against Iowa. For this discussion, the middle of the league for 2017 is 5 teams: Ohio State, Michigan, Maryland, Iowa and Northwestern. Against these 4 other teams, we actually only have 4 games on the schedule--but 3 are at home! We play Ohio State in Columbus, but we get Michigan, Maryland, and Iowa in Evanston. Huge opportunity to get quality wins to put us ahead of other teams in this group fighting for NCAA Tournament berths.

The top of the league
Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue and Indiana are in another class. Any of them seems capable of being a Final Four team next March. We play 6 games against these 4 teams--and 4 are on the road. This really puts the spotlight on the home games against Indiana and Purdue. Players and fans will know what a marquee win could do for our post-season hopes. It's unfortunate that we also face each of these 4 teams on the road... At best, we always have a chance of surprising someone. At worst, a road loss against any of these teams won't hurt our RPI.

The bottom line
In theory, each game has equal importance... But I'm circling 5 home games: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland and Iowa. These games will be the barometer of whether or not we are a special team that is going to make some noise. And I'm circling both games against Illinois--just because.

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

Always enjoy reading your thoughts...and they seem pretty accurate.

I wonder how bad the officiating will be again this year.

And please, PLEASE, don't have the officials call a foul on every possession the first four games of the season. It's just brutal.

 

[Sec.112]

I'm just thinking about the B10 schedule.

It's pretty early to do this, but I hope we can make some assumptions.

Generally automatic wins?? (although there is nothing automatic about this program)
Rutgers
@Rutgers
Nebraska
Minnesota
Illinois

Probable losses??
Purdue
@Purdue
@MSU
@Wisconsin
@OSU

Can they get five more wins from ...
@Nebraska
@Indiana
Indiana
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
@Illinois

5-2 in these seven games?!?!? Ugh!! It's not crazy, but they need a couple first- and second-year guys to step it up completely ... not just a little improvement here and there.

Yes, I'm already thinking with another weak-ass schedule, they need to go 10-8 in the conference ... for starters. It would be nice if two of those 10 wins were vs. top-20.

I have last year's Michigan team in mind as what NU needs:
22-12 (12-9) ... #11 seed - last four in
(vs RPI rank)
#1-25 ... 3-7
#26-50 ... 1-4 (Four wins vs. top 50!!!!!!)
# 51-100 ...0-1
#101-200 ...8-0
#201+ ... 9-0

 

[NJCat]

I'm just thinking about the B10 schedule.

It's pretty early to do this, but I hope we can make some assumptions.

Generally automatic wins?? (although there is nothing automatic about this program)
Rutgers
@Rutgers
Nebraska
Minnesota
Illinois

Probable losses??
Purdue
@Purdue
@MSU
@Wisconsin
@OSU

Can they get five more wins from ...
@Nebraska
@Indiana
Indiana
Iowa
Maryland
Michigan
@Illinois

5-2 in these seven games?!?!? Ugh!! It's not crazy, but they need a couple first- and second-year guys to step it up completely ... not just a little improvement here and there.

Yes, I'm already thinking with another weak-ass schedule, they need to go 10-8 in the conference ... for starters. It would be nice if two of those 10 wins were vs. top-20.

I have last year's Michigan team in mind as what NU needs:
22-12 (12-9) ... #11 seed - last four in
(vs RPI rank)
#1-25 ... 3-7
#26-50 ... 1-4 (Four wins vs. top 50!!!!!!)
# 51-100 ...0-1
#101-200 ...8-0
#201+ ... 9-0

Anything less than 9 Big 10 wins would be a major disappointment. The top of the Big 10 won't be as strong as previous years. NU might sneak a win against Indy at WRA, as well as PU. 9 Big 10 wins plus a win in the Big 10 tournament might be enough to get to the dance.

But I really thing 2018 is THE year to dance.

 

[Medill90]

I agree with Fitzphile that less than 9 wins is a disappointment.

I do think that the Big Ten is moving into a new era where the only bottom dwellers will be Rutgers and Minny.

Penn State has the talent -- very inexperienced talent -- to have a great night and beat a terrific team.

The middle has gotten larger and those middle Big Ten Teams will be tough outs for top tier teams.

In two or three years the Big Ten will be the undisputed toughest conference in the country.

 

[Sec.112]

You guys have said a lot about other teams. I'm curious what makes everyone think this team is automatically better than last year?

 

[NJCat]

You guys have said a lot about other teams. I'm curious what makes everyone think this team is automatically better than last year?

Rap, Vic, Barrett and Isiah more than offset the loss of Tre and Olah.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Are you kidding me! Penn State football is loaded this year and my favorite to win the East Division! Just kidding! I think the hoops team will surprise a lot of folks and will give the top teams all they can handle!

 

[Sec.112]

Rap, Vic, Barrett and Isiah more than offset the loss of Tre and Olah.

Excuse me for asking, Fitzphile, but didn't you say fairly recently that Olah and Demps would be "missed badly?" How can they be missed badly this season when their loss will be more than offset?

To me, that exemplifies the uncertainty I have for this season (in August). I need a whole lot of "ifs" to get this team to 9 or 10 wins (or the 12 wins Michigan needed last year). So, I go back to my rule of "ifs." If I need to use the word "if" too much in my expectations of a season, I'm not sure I can depend on a solid season. And there are "ifs" all up and down this roster.

Does anybody's definition of a solid NU season only begin with a .500 record? Are eight wins disappointing? Maybe depending on the context of the losses. But not a major - key word - disappointment. I could very easily see seven or eight wins and a slew of 1-3 point losses. I don't think this crew has come anywhere close to showing it can win consistently against the middle tier of the B10.

With that said, I can't be too critical because I have no clue what to expect out of this bunch at this point. I think the only thing you can positively depend on is McIntosh. After that ... if ... if ... if.

 

[NJCat]

Excuse me for asking, Fitzphile, but didn't you say fairly recently that Olah and Demps would be "missed badly?" How can they be missed badly this season when their loss will be more than offset?

Yes, you are correct, I did. I am falling prey to the recency bias when I watched the videos of the guys during the C-A-T tourney. The team may well be better, but the record probably won't given the more challenging OOC schedule.

 

[Medill90]

What is not indisputable is that the main contributors are a year older and a year more mature. On the maturity front I'll direct you to Scottie's quote about stepping it up this summer.

If there were no new additions, this fact would have me more optimistic than last year's team. (admittedly this is due to Olah being injured much of last year and Demps turning in a middling performance). I guess you could look at Law as an organic addition.

Also indisputable is that this is a team of Collins recruits who will play his preferred style for the first time.

Finally, you're adding one skilled player with length and size in Rap, a big with some skills and what looks to be a legit Big Ten shooter in Brown. Anything from these three in conference will be huge.

If Big Ten players get worse as they get more experience and size, if players get worse as the grow more mature, if adding the best player back after injury worsens the team, if coaches do worse when they are able to play their system and if two new four star players with length and the player of year from Washington state suck, this team will be worse than last year's.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Before I say anything I have no idea how this team compares to last year. The freshman while there upside we still haven't seen them play at the college level yet. Pardon should improve a lot every year based on raw talent. But Olah played so smartly at the center especially with the pick and roll. While many people got frustrated with demps he wasn't afraid to shoot and who's going to pick that up and when he was hot he was one of the best scorers in the big ten (again I said when he was hot). Law should be a great addition back. I believe he'll be better then ever before but someone could argue what if coming of the injury slows him down. Bmac the only argument against him is the wall he hits. Just a lot of questions and possible upside around this team is what I'm saying. I hope they're better but I honestly couldn't predict till I see the first 3 games.

 

[Deeringfish]

Rap, Vic, Barrett and Isiah more than offset the loss of Tre and Olah.

I agree with this especially because both Tre and Alex didn't make a great improvement from the
Prior year. I had hoped one of them would have Had more dominant seasons as Srs.

 

[Sec.112]

If Pardon or Barrett show ANY kind of defense w/o three fouls every 20 minutes, I agree the Cats are in good shape at center. (Can you imagine this conversation if Pardon wasn't forced to burn his redshirt?)

For me, replacing Demps is a whole other ball of wax, and I'm not the greatest Demps fan. Are we talking about a choice between an inconsistent player coming off an injury or a top-150/-200?

The two-guard has to be the single, most important question on this team.

 

[NJCat]

The two-guard has to be the single, most important question on this team.

Completely agree. Can't wait to see how NU addresses this in November.

 

[Walker Fan]

Some great posts in this thread. Let's compare last year's team v. this upcoming year's team. When Law went down NU had to rely more on Lumpkin at SF and that puts more pressure on McIntosh to be the playmaker. It worked against Columbia and Wisconsin where he scored in the high 20s and led the team to victory. But he struggled against taller and larger PGs like the OSU PG who goes 6'5", 210 lbs. As for Olah, he could not guard man to man so we were stuck with 2-3 zone which has holes from the outside and OSU, PSU, UM, Indiana and Iowa abused us from the outside. Now we have an athletic starting five who can guard man to man and switch on the pick and roll better. Now Lindsey, Law, a bigger and stronger Falzon, Pardon and Skelly off the bench give NU more length, size, speed and athleticism and yes, might lead to steals and transition buckets which may lead to easy buckets which has not been seen at NU for ages.

 

[Walker Fan]

As for how NU deals with the loss of Demps. Teams in the Big 10 focused their defense on stopping our guards and dared the others in NU's lineup to beat them. Lumpkin does not have the offensive game to do so and Falzon was a true frosh and very raw. He was on fire at Minny, but still an inconsistent performer but has major upside to his game. Olah was injured for a key portion of the Big 10 season. Remember the UNL game. Tim Miles centered on stopping BMac and Demps and dared anyone else to beat them and Pardon did so with over 20 pts. So NU will miss Demps but Law 10-15 ppg and Lindsey's added production and Brown's pop off the bench (6 ppg or more) will make up for Demp's loss.

 

[NJCat]

Some great posts in this thread. Let's compare last year's team v. this upcoming year's team. When Law went down NU had to rely more on Lumpkin at SF and that puts more pressure on McIntosh to be the playmaker. It worked against Columbia and Wisconsin where he scored in the high 20s and led the team to victory. But he struggled against taller and larger PGs like the OSU PG who goes 6'5", 210 lbs. As for Olah, he could not guard man to man so we were stuck with 2-3 zone which has holes from the outside and OSU, PSU, UM, Indiana and Iowa abused us from the outside. Now we have an athletic starting five who can guard man to man and switch on the pick and roll better. Now Lindsey, Law, a bigger and stronger Falzon, Pardon and Skelly off the bench give NU more length, size, speed and athleticism and yes, might lead to steals and transition buckets which may lead to easy buckets which has not been seen at NU for ages.

Some good thoughts. Thanks.

Who relieves BMac as playmaker this year? Brown is shorter so no help against big points, and Vic not a play maker, more a spot-up shooter. Sanjay is definitely not a playmaker.

I suspect Dererk and Barrett will use all 10 fouls if NU goes man predominantly. But you make a valid point that NU has athleticism in the bigs it has never ever had.

 

[Walker Fan]

Fitzphile brings an excellent point. I think the hope is that Law develops into a guy who can create his shot. Also, Falzon showed glimpses of
a pump fake and then a drive. But I think Brown will play minutes with McIntosh in a 2 PG lineup which seemed more prevalent in the college game so that the pressure was not always on one PG. Also, I hope the coaching is working with Pardon to use his quickness to use post moves. Also, remember that Skelly is good passer from the top of the key.