Next Year
- Thread starter MysticCat
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Borderline NIT. NU will be younger this year than last, with no Senior starters who play a significant role. Young up front as well needing time to grow into Big 10 frames. Probably a step back record-wise, but look out for 2017-18: that is the season for the NCAA.
Wow, who hijacked willy's account? I like it.
With Vic Law returning, and if Pardon continues to develop, I think we have a good shot this year for the NCAA. This will be Mac's team undoubtedly now that Olah and Demps have graduated, and his leadership will be key to how far this team can go.
Congrats to Fitzphile for his 100th post saying the next year won't be the 'Cats year! Johnny, tell the artist formerly known as NJ Cat what he's won....
Mystic asked the question...I gave my opinion. Not like I started the thread......geez......
NU makes NIT - but Road game this year,
2017 - After 3 great Freshmen have a year to develop - NCAA with first ever Tourney win.
2017 - After 3 great Freshmen have a year to develop - NCAA with first ever Tourney win.
I totally agree.
I might add that while NU's record may very well be worse, I believe the 'Cats post season resume will end up being stronger. Also, given a somewhat healthy roster throughout the 2016-17 campaign (which is always a tricky proposition), I think it's fair to expect Collins' crew to sneak into the NIT - assuming normal off season improvements/contributions from the returning players and incoming recruits.
Can someone remind me when the last season was that NU didn't have an injury to one of its best players? Coble, Crawford, Cobb, Shurna, Swop, .......
I think you are underestimating Olah's value. He was a steady defensive force in the middle and had descent range as well. Pardon has shown a desire to go to the basket but has shown no range. Hard to replace 7 ft (though he often did not play that tall) Pardon also was reaching too much taking questionable fouls. Going forward, I think he will come around but will it be this year or next? We also had pretty good depth at the position and hard to say how it will play out next year.
Also replacing Demps and not sure who will be taking the role. He was a second ball handler. Law may provide the O lost but not sure about the ball handling. That said, I have to feel whoever takes those minutes will provide better D.
Just saying, would not be surprised to see a small step back as the roles are grown into.
Second this post. We're losing our second- and third-best players with heir apparents with little or no college experience. That's not easy except for maybe 10 programs in the country and not always easy for them, either.
The only thing I worry about are injuries. I think that Pardon will surpass Olah this coming season. Remember that he was on schedule to redshirt and didn't play his first college game until the start of the B1G season, if you recall a 29 point, 12 rebound debut vs. Nebraska. Demps was solid down the stretch but was inconsistent for more than half of the season. I believe that Falzon will have a breakout year as a sophomore. Add in the athleticism and shooting of incoming frosh Rapolas Ivanauskas to the solid nucleus of juniors Mac, Law, Lindsay, and Skelly - Collins' first recruiting class - and I think we will be pretty good next year.
And he did not approach those numbers the rest of the year and was often in foul trouble. Freshmen will be, you know, Freshmen and you will not know what you are getting from one game to the next. Law will be coming off an injury season and hopefully will respond well. Just a lot of question marks. Frankly, I don;t think anyone knows what we will get. Likely a little worse than last year but could be pretty good as well.
In regards to Demps and Olah....both fine players and they will be missed, but not the type of players Collins looks for.
This team now has a roster of players who can defend, play above the rim and run up and down the floor like Collins wants.
The big question on a step forward or a step back relates to the mindset of the players. They are good enough to compete with anyone in the Big Ten. Step on throats and kills them? Not really. But if they have an inner understanding and belief that they can play with anyone there's no reason why this team can't put a run together and make it to the post season.
This team now has a roster of players who can defend, play above the rim and run up and down the floor like Collins wants.
The big question on a step forward or a step back relates to the mindset of the players. They are good enough to compete with anyone in the Big Ten. Step on throats and kills them? Not really. But if they have an inner understanding and belief that they can play with anyone there's no reason why this team can't put a run together and make it to the post season.
That's the point, Pardon is no longer a freshman. I'm hoping what he showed in his first ever college basketball game against Nebby is more indicative of what we can expect from him going forward. I'm not expecting 29 points from him every night, but hopefully something in the 12 points, 8 rebounds territory with solid defense. I love the way he finishes around the rim with his 7-foot wingspan. Collins was hoping to redshirt him anyway so we'll see what he can do now with a B1G-ready body.
12 and 8 would be better than Alex Olah put up in his Senior season. And Dererk has a ways to go before he gets to the level of "solid defense". I wouldn't set the bar too high on his true Sophomore season....
Do you understand how many B1G players last season averaged >12 ppg and >8 rpg? One. A.J. Hammonds with 14.9 ppg and 8.0 rpg. Hammond was First Team All B1G and the B1G Defensive Player of the year.
The other guy who came closest was Ethan Happ with 12.1 ppg and 7.8 rpg. Of course, Happ was also a member of the B1G All Defensive Team as well as the B1G Freshman of the Year.
Setting the bar low for Pardon as sophomore, indeed. Just to be clear: are you expecting reasonable improvement from him or are you expecting him to be elite next season? Your text of your post suggests one thing, but the stats you throw out suggest something else entirely.
Amen, brother. Olah had a solid season at 11.4 and 5.6, and if Dererk can even match that NU will be in good shape at Center. And FWIW, a grand total of 5 Big 10 players averaged 8 rebounds or better. And Thomas Bryant, borderline NBA prospect, averaged just 11.9 points, so Dererk getting 12 would be quite an accomplishment!
If only Ethan Happ had a really obvious connection to Northwestern.
I have little doubt that players that CCC recruits will not eventually exceed Olah and Demps. But they were SRs and as such they had matured both physically and mentally beyond the level of FROSH or even SOPHs. BIGs are notorious for taking time to develop and Olah as a SR with 3 full seasons behind him will be difficult to replace. Pardon and Benson will likely exceed Olah but I question that it will be this year. Look at the strides made by Olah his Jr and Sr years and that was after two full years of starting. Pardon has hald a season of part time work. He will likely make strides this year but I don't think he will exceed Olah till his Jr year.
As far as replacing Demps, have not seen anybody yet ready to replace what he brought yet. While I expect some of the recent additions to get there, again, I question whether they will get to that level this year.
Are we really saying Pardon didn't come close to Olah's level of productivity last year? Com' on boys!! Let's take away all the cranked-up pre-conference stats and get down to what matters - the conference season.
Olah (20.4 m/g) - 9.5 p/g ... 4.2 r/g ... 29.5 p/100poss ... 12.8 r/100poss ... .116 WS/40 ... 103 ORtg ... 102.7 DRtg
Pardon (22.6 m/g) - 7.1 p/g ... 4.2 r/g ... 26.4 p/100poss ... 15.6 r/100poss ... .164 WS/40 ... 122.5 ORtg ... 104 DRtg
Olah (Jr - 30.6 m/g) - 12.2 p/g ... 6.6 r/g ...
If somebody wants to tell me Olah was playing banged up last year, I might go with that. I wanted to get conference stats from Olah's junior season, but the advanced stats weren't available.
The one thing Olah had over Pardon last year was that he was able to stay in the game. I'll let you decide if that was a good thing
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However, I think the two players were EXTREMELY comparable in the conference last year. If Pardon has any measure of improvement and more consistency, we're looking at a better season than Olah had last year.
(P.S. Anybody else excited by a tad less than 16.6/8.4 from the center position last year? And that doesn't include JVZ.)
Olah (20.4 m/g) - 9.5 p/g ... 4.2 r/g ... 29.5 p/100poss ... 12.8 r/100poss ... .116 WS/40 ... 103 ORtg ... 102.7 DRtg
Pardon (22.6 m/g) - 7.1 p/g ... 4.2 r/g ... 26.4 p/100poss ... 15.6 r/100poss ... .164 WS/40 ... 122.5 ORtg ... 104 DRtg
Olah (Jr - 30.6 m/g) - 12.2 p/g ... 6.6 r/g ...
If somebody wants to tell me Olah was playing banged up last year, I might go with that. I wanted to get conference stats from Olah's junior season, but the advanced stats weren't available.
The one thing Olah had over Pardon last year was that he was able to stay in the game. I'll let you decide if that was a good thing
.However, I think the two players were EXTREMELY comparable in the conference last year. If Pardon has any measure of improvement and more consistency, we're looking at a better season than Olah had last year.
(P.S. Anybody else excited by a tad less than 16.6/8.4 from the center position last year? And that doesn't include JVZ.)
I'm not comparing Olah and Demps to anyone on the current roster. I'm comparing the style in which the team will have the ability to play this coming year versus the hybrid style (what Collins wanted to do and what the team was capable of doing). For the record, I was as full throated a supporter of Demps and Olah from their first day on campus as anyone.
Will one or two players really rise up playing in the faster pace? Last year NU just did not have a guy similar to Law playing D and running the floor. His return helps everyone. Similarly, the addition of Rap even in limited elements adds an element that wasn't there...crafty, mid range offensive player who's not afraid of a little banging.
I'd still say Collins would recruit demps. I mean isn't Isaiah brown supposed to be similar to demps game? I could be wrong there with the brown comment but demps was a heck of a natural scorer and a pretty good secondary ball handler for Macintosh took a lot of pressure off him. And demps could play above the rim I still remember the first time I saw him dunk two handed over someone I freaked out and yelled I didn't know he could dunk. But Olah was a head and shoulders better post defender then pardon he may not have been quick enough for man but he was a heck of an anchor for the zone and he played extremely smart offensively with the pick and roll where pardon would get called for illegal screens last year Olah was easily the better center no question now pardon was only a freshman I have no doubt he will become at least a very solid player loved his soft hands!
When he was not banged up, Olah was pretty solid. Have to look at his last about 8-9 games. He missed a number of games in the BIG season and when he first got back, he was not the same player. By the end of the season, he was much more the player we expected. Olah brought a lot more. His D was pretty solid and the offense flowed pretty well when he was in the game. He led in scoring in several of the games and had less than 10 points only once during that time. He has some range, hit his free throws and didn't commit a lot of silly fouls. Overall, he was more consistent. He did not have the natural athleticism of Pardon but he made up for it with knowledge gained through 3.5 years on the floor.Are we really saying Pardon didn't come close to Olah's level of productivity last year? Com' on boys!! Let's take away all the cranked-up pre-conference stats and get down to what matters - the conference season.
Olah (20.4 m/g) - 9.5 p/g ... 4.2 r/g ... 29.5 p/100poss ... 12.8 r/100poss ... .116 WS/40 ... 103 ORtg ... 102.7 DRtg
Pardon (22.6 m/g) - 7.1 p/g ... 4.2 r/g ... 26.4 p/100poss ... 15.6 r/100poss ... .164 WS/40 ... 122.5 ORtg ... 104 DRtg
Olah (Jr - 30.6 m/g) - 12.2 p/g ... 6.6 r/g ...
If somebody wants to tell me Olah was playing banged up last year, I might go with that. I wanted to get conference stats from Olah's junior season, but the advanced stats weren't available.
The one thing Olah had over Pardon last year was that he was able to stay in the game. I'll let you decide if that was a good thing
However, I think the two players were EXTREMELY comparable in the conference last year. If Pardon has any measure of improvement and more consistency, we're looking at a better season than Olah had last year.
(P.S. Anybody else excited by a tad less than 16.6/8.4 from the center position last year? And that doesn't include JVZ.)
This s not a knock on Pardon. But suggesting that he as a Frosh was nearly the same as a healthy Ola as a Sr. .... And if you take out Pardon's big game against NEB, his averages go down by about 1.5 ppg and 0.5 rpg and you then see that they are not nearly as close as you think. I expect Pardon to improve this year but likely still have ups and downs. We will still miss Olah. But by his Jr year, I see him as being a force.
This isn't a direct reply to where I put it in the chain but the discussion was kind of all over the place anyways. Regarding next year- first strictly outcomes focused:
1. I think a similar conference record to what we attained is a reasonable hope / expectation. That said, we had an easier conference schedule last year than we will likely end up with this year, so I think we can downgrade and call 7-11 the median outcome.
2. The OOC schedule looks like it will be at least somewhat more challenging which is good (maybe still not challenging enough), and we got a bit lucky to come out of it 12-1. I'd say this year 10-3 is a reasonable median expectation, maybe 11-2 if the remaining unknowns come in closer to the WF end of the possibility spectrum than the e.g. Miami FL end of it.
3. So 17-14, add 1-1 in the BTT and 18-15, but hopefully with a more marketable resume and more quality wins. Way too early to say, but something like that probably puts us close to the edge of the NIT, maybe just out, though very dependent on quality of remaining unknown OOC and what happens in conf tourney season. So maybe we need to get 1 more than that in conference (8-10) or OOC (11-2) to be 19-14 overall. Possible, prob a bit less than a median outcome.
Regarding keys to next year being successful or not, which was a loose topic above...
1. To start, I am not at all worried about point / 1, wing / 3, or stretch forward / 4. We have BMac at point, and we can figure out someone for 5-10 mins a game to backup. We have tons of depth and options at 3 and 4, we should have enough different options to withstand the physicality of the B1G schedule, and the bigger challenge might be managing minutes between Law, RI, Sanjay, Tap, Falzon, Skelly (in no particular order).
2. So that leaves two positions where I think we need someone to step up if we want to take the next step. To start with, at 2 guard- we need someone who is competent enough as a secondary ballhandler, can play adequate defense, and can contribute as a 3rd scoring option when BMac is off the floor, or when someone like Sanjay is on the floor. Ideally Scottie steps up into this role, maybe Vic is athletic enough that he can play it and give us extra length with what is effectively a 3 forward look. And there's an outside chance Ash or Brown can contribute, though I'm not hugely optimistic for this season.
3. And then an equally big ? -- as always at NU -- the center position. Debated above... but to start with Pardon, I think we have a decent idea of what we're getting from last year. He is a respectable big that is quick enough to guard mobile bigs but is prone to getting into foul trouble with his long arms, and also isn't polished enough to consistently defend experienced bigs with good low post moves. He is a great garbage guy at finish under the rim and putbacks, that adds an element on O we haven't had. But as of yet he can't really go wide and spread the floor with a midrange jumper (we can hope!). The big unknown is Benson - on both offense and defense. Seems to be decently skilled, but prob needs to put on some more weight. Prob better at stretching the floor than DP, but might not be as much of a force inside. Would be great if this guy can give us a solid 15 minutes per game. And crucial to avoid injuries to either, because if so we need to rotate Skelly in to help some and all of a sudden our roster depth looks much more precarious.
(Side note - I don't even want to think about BMac getting injured, but if he does we can write the whole thing down I think)
So.... roundabout post, but I would say 18-15 (7-11) is a reasonable median expectation, with the highest leverage points to move that in either direction being the play at the 2 and the 5.
1. I think a similar conference record to what we attained is a reasonable hope / expectation. That said, we had an easier conference schedule last year than we will likely end up with this year, so I think we can downgrade and call 7-11 the median outcome.
2. The OOC schedule looks like it will be at least somewhat more challenging which is good (maybe still not challenging enough), and we got a bit lucky to come out of it 12-1. I'd say this year 10-3 is a reasonable median expectation, maybe 11-2 if the remaining unknowns come in closer to the WF end of the possibility spectrum than the e.g. Miami FL end of it.
3. So 17-14, add 1-1 in the BTT and 18-15, but hopefully with a more marketable resume and more quality wins. Way too early to say, but something like that probably puts us close to the edge of the NIT, maybe just out, though very dependent on quality of remaining unknown OOC and what happens in conf tourney season. So maybe we need to get 1 more than that in conference (8-10) or OOC (11-2) to be 19-14 overall. Possible, prob a bit less than a median outcome.
Regarding keys to next year being successful or not, which was a loose topic above...
1. To start, I am not at all worried about point / 1, wing / 3, or stretch forward / 4. We have BMac at point, and we can figure out someone for 5-10 mins a game to backup. We have tons of depth and options at 3 and 4, we should have enough different options to withstand the physicality of the B1G schedule, and the bigger challenge might be managing minutes between Law, RI, Sanjay, Tap, Falzon, Skelly (in no particular order).
2. So that leaves two positions where I think we need someone to step up if we want to take the next step. To start with, at 2 guard- we need someone who is competent enough as a secondary ballhandler, can play adequate defense, and can contribute as a 3rd scoring option when BMac is off the floor, or when someone like Sanjay is on the floor. Ideally Scottie steps up into this role, maybe Vic is athletic enough that he can play it and give us extra length with what is effectively a 3 forward look. And there's an outside chance Ash or Brown can contribute, though I'm not hugely optimistic for this season.
3. And then an equally big ? -- as always at NU -- the center position. Debated above... but to start with Pardon, I think we have a decent idea of what we're getting from last year. He is a respectable big that is quick enough to guard mobile bigs but is prone to getting into foul trouble with his long arms, and also isn't polished enough to consistently defend experienced bigs with good low post moves. He is a great garbage guy at finish under the rim and putbacks, that adds an element on O we haven't had. But as of yet he can't really go wide and spread the floor with a midrange jumper (we can hope!). The big unknown is Benson - on both offense and defense. Seems to be decently skilled, but prob needs to put on some more weight. Prob better at stretching the floor than DP, but might not be as much of a force inside. Would be great if this guy can give us a solid 15 minutes per game. And crucial to avoid injuries to either, because if so we need to rotate Skelly in to help some and all of a sudden our roster depth looks much more precarious.
(Side note - I don't even want to think about BMac getting injured, but if he does we can write the whole thing down I think)
So.... roundabout post, but I would say 18-15 (7-11) is a reasonable median expectation, with the highest leverage points to move that in either direction being the play at the 2 and the 5.
The past season was frustrating because we came so close to winning some big games even without significant contributions from Olah and Demps, but just couldn't get it done. I remember commenting that it felt like the 1994 season for the football team. I'm hoping for a hoops breakthrough this coming season, with Mac leading the way and assuming the inspirational leader role of Pat Fitzgerald. He won't be All-American like Fitz but Mac played really well last year and I expect him to be even better. If the other pieces fall in place like Law, Pardon, etc. then we will have a chance to party like it's 1995.
We always throw this out as a reason we should have gotten Happ or Kaminsky or some other recruit, but there are plenty of places I've been that I would NOT recommend to a relative. (Though I would definitely recommend Northwestern.)
That's soooo Northwestern, too, isn't it? It's always an injury or missing a key ingredient or a guy transferred or something. This year it's the black hole at shooting guard. 18-15 would be so Northwestern and then in 2017-18, all five starters will trip on a carpet in the weight room and miss the entire season.
Not sure really what your point is..? I think we are all well aware that we've never quite had enough to make it to the tournament and would like us to get over the hump.
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If I had to guess I would say he simply is expressing some frustration that we always seem on the cusp but never get into the dance. It seems like we are not really an up and down team that goes from the bottom to not quite good enough, we are consistently (it feels like) just on the edge, thinking we deserve consideration but not getting in.
The issue with Olah was very clearly described by McIntosh on his podcast on Inside NU. His footwork was slow (per McIntosh) so that forced NU to the zone over the past two seasons (my interpretation of McIntosh's statement). Olah could not react on switches or on picks and as a result NU had to stick with the zone and then were unable to generate TOs and easy baskets which was the key in losses to OSU and UM which cost NU the season (4 losses to mediocre teams). Collins has created an athletic team with 10 recruits in three recruiting classes who can react on defense better and maybe create turnovers and easy baskets which will open the offense up more, particularly in Big 10 play, where possessions are more limited and TOs and a couple of easy baskets can be the difference.
On offense, NU's success will be contingent on the development of Falzon as a scorer (no. 1 or 2 scorer) and Law to be a double digit contributor and Lindsey becoming more than a stand still jump shooter. He will have to dribble and penetrate or if he can't then Isiah Brown will getting more minutes sooner as NU will need his instant offense off the bench.
On offense, NU's success will be contingent on the development of Falzon as a scorer (no. 1 or 2 scorer) and Law to be a double digit contributor and Lindsey becoming more than a stand still jump shooter. He will have to dribble and penetrate or if he can't then Isiah Brown will getting more minutes sooner as NU will need his instant offense off the bench.
I was agreeing with you. Sort of an "amen" kind of post, hardly a criticism.
Well then Amen to that. And let's hope this year is maybe the one we get over the hump.
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