C'mon, only the gravest chicken littles would pick us to lose to an Ivy team.
One problem with our noncon schedule
- Thread starter DocCatsFan
- Start date
C'mon, only the gravest chicken littles would pick us to lose to an Ivy team.
Indiana certainly doesn't have the toughest schedule around, but to suggest our OOC schedules are comparable is misleading.
Indiana has 5 teams in the kenpom top 100 in their non-conference schedule--Duke, Notre Dame, Creighton, UNLV and Wake Forest. And they have only 2 games against teams in the kenpom 300+.
Meanwhile, we have only 1 game against a team in the kenpom top 100 and 4 games against kenpom 300+ teams.
Our schedule is just fine for where we are in the building process.
Judging by rumors, I'm really expecting the next few years to be a lot of fun at least schedule wise.
I trust Coach Collins to know what the team needs as far as scheduling more than those who complain about our schedule. Remember, we haven't had a winning season since 2011-12.
Judging by rumors, I'm really expecting the next few years to be a lot of fun at least schedule wise.
I trust Coach Collins to know what the team needs as far as scheduling more than those who complain about our schedule. Remember, we haven't had a winning season since 2011-12.
I was answering those complaining about our HOME schedule. Creighton was the only decent team on it and they are actually not as good as they have been in the past (lost at Loyola).
That does sound like a pretty solid non con schedule. I agree with the approach of half good games, half should win. And to divide it further, something like ~2 tough games where will be underdogs, ~3-4 tossups, ~3-4 where we are favorites, and ~4 that we should win easily (like MVSU) seems about right to me. So we have an expectation of ending up about 9-4 in the OOC schedule and hopefully we pick up at least a couple of nice things to put on the resume.
PS also excited Cats are coming to play at the Barclays Center that sounds like a good tournament.
The next two games would get me into the stands... if I lived 15 or fewer minutes away, rather than a couple of hours. We play teams with a combined record of 1-14 year to date. These are scrimmages, and why they should count in any kind of “official” way is beyond me.
I paid attention today because of DePaul being a worthy opponent and an area rival, and I’ll be interested (big time) in every conference game or tournament matchup. Other than that and a couple of decent pre-season matchups (Va Tech, Missouri) .... forget it.
I love baseball spring training, but there you get to enjoy the weather and make a vacation out of the experience.
I paid attention today because of DePaul being a worthy opponent and an area rival, and I’ll be interested (big time) in every conference game or tournament matchup. Other than that and a couple of decent pre-season matchups (Va Tech, Missouri) .... forget it.
I love baseball spring training, but there you get to enjoy the weather and make a vacation out of the experience.
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9 Big wins and 12-1 Non-conference will get NU into tournament - coach K will make the call and decide our first round opponent for CC... ok not really but 9-10 in Big gets to 21 wins with no bad losses... need over 20 and the rest of the Big is weaker this year - we are not competing against that many Big bubble teams.. Wimn in ACC challenge, OSU over Kentucky and MSU at No 1 gives the big enough prestige to get 6-7 teams in even in a down year - I hope -
I would say that this year 9 Big wins and going 9-10 in the BIG including the BTT would be questionable to get us in this year. With a weaker than normal BIG and our OOC SOS. Now if a couple of those wins were against the top 3 (Purdue, MSU, MD, then we would likely be in. But if they are all against RU, IL, etc it will be awfully hard unless we get to 10 wins. But I figured NIT this year so hard to get disappointed, especially without Law.
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OK, being completely anal, I did a simulation of the entire Big 10 schedule, using actual team schedules and my guess as to who wins each game. I ran the case where NU has 9 wins without any big upsets: wins over Illinois, Minny, NE (2), PSU (2), RU, OSU and Wisky. The rest of the Big 10 shaped up as:
MSU 15-3 (losses to PU, OSU, WI)
PU 15-3 (losses to IN, IA, MD)
MD 14-4 (losses to IU, MSU, PU, OSU)
IU 13-5 (losses to IL, IA, MI, MSU, WI)
Iowa 11-7 (losses to IN, MD, MI, MSU 2, PU, WI)
OSU 10-8 (losses to IL, IN, IA, MD, MSU, NE, NU, PU)
NU 9-9 (losses to IN, IA, MD 2, MI, MSU, MN, PU, OSU)
Mich 9-9 (losses to IL, IA, MD 2, MSU, MN, PU 2, OSU)
iLL 8-10 (losses to IN, IA, MD, MSU, MN, NU, PU, RU, OSU, WI)
Wisky 6-12
Minny 6-12
RU 4-14
NE 4-14
PSU 2-16 (Hey, they gotta win SOME games! Beat NE, upset Wisky like RU did last season)
In this scenario, the first 6 teams are locks. OSU, NU and Mich are bubble teams. At best, the Big 10 gets 7 teams in the Tournament, more likely only 6. I have MI beating IN and IA which probably also puts them in. If they lose to one or more of these, NU is in even without a high quality Big 10 win. If NU gets a high quality win and still goes 9-9, it helps the SOS.
You can question all of my assumptions, but remember it is a zero-sum game. For example, if you think "no way MSU loses to OSU", the MSU goes to 16-2 and OSU falls to 9-9. I tried to put in some home-court upsets but there are probably more than I guessed. I probably have Wisky a little worse than they will end up and RU a little better.
My take-away is NU will need 10 Big 10 regular season wins to get to the Tournament. What do you think?
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Teams I think would be fun home-and-home's with:
- Georgetown
- UMass
- Hawaii
- Gonzaga and/or St. Mary's
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Vanderbilt
- West Virginia
- Virginia
- VCU
- Holy Cross
Teams I would like to see us schedule home and home's with within the next 3 years:
Carolina
Kentucky
Kansas
Duke
Louisville
Syracuse
UCLA
Arizona
In the immortal words of a former POTUS: BRING EM ON
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The BIG is weaker than normal this year. WIS beating MSU? Not this year. I am not sure that IL beats too many. As a result, with the bottom of the BIG weaker, I do not see the committee ready to give bids to 9-9 teams.
