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Unfortunately we are missing some DBs. Got to get pressure on him. He is not generally the dual threat that causes us the most problems. And he does not have quite the weapons Book had. Good TEs and OL but not so much at WR. I think we match up pretty well on D against them or would with our top DBs. O depends on if CT gets his mojo back
It will depend upon you guys exploiting our 4th string cb who ND abused after he was forced to play. If our weak spot is at least prepared, i just wont be able to see you guys beating us. Doesnt matter where we play. Should be a good close game as Iowa isnt going to just lay down again.Vegas has been scary correct on Iowa this year FWIW
It will depend upon you guys exploiting our 4th string cb who ND abused after he was forced to play. If our weak spot is at least prepared, i just wont be able to see you guys beating us. Doesnt matter where we play. Should be a good close game as Iowa isnt going to just lay down again.
It will depend upon you guys exploiting our 4th string cb who ND abused after he was forced to play. If our weak spot is at least prepared, i just wont be able to see you guys beating us. Doesnt matter where we play. Should be a good close game as Iowa isnt going to just lay down again.
If any one thinks Iowa is going to be a cake walk they are nuts. Can NU win sure, but they will need more effort than they had for Wisconsin. IMO simply because it is in Iowa and they are in survival mode for the West Championship. This game is a toss up at best for NU especially if our two main injuries from last week don't resolve.
At the same time this is the last chance for NU to make a statement that it belongs on the Championship Game. Lose here and you are backing in even if you make it to the B1G game.
Iowa has a few big WR’s that have some speed as well. Athletically, definitely one of the better WR groups we’ve played this year. They will create mismatches with their WR’s and TE’s. They definitely have something at WR- not a game we want to be missing McGee and Williams, though I do think Whillock has looked good at safety.
Is Midvale Dave still around? He hated us with the fire of a thousand suns. Miss him.For all Iowa fans visiting the board this week - don't listen to Turk aka Mr. Wickerpark
Iowa is properly favored imo; this game will either be a close NU win or a 2 TD Iowa win. Feels like most of our games with Iowa are like that.If any one thinks Iowa is going to be a cake walk they are nuts. Can NU win sure, but they will need more effort than they had for Wisconsin. IMO simply because it is in Iowa and they are in survival mode for the West Championship. This game is a toss up at best for NU especially if our two main injuries from last week don't resolve.
At the same time this is the last chance for NU to make a statement that it belongs on the Championship Game. Lose here and you are backing in even if you make it to the B1G game.
Yes Dave is still around. He broke his leg in the 1995 game against Iowa and swore eternal vengeance. He always does what he can to make sure the team treats that game as our bowl game.Is Midvale Dave still around? He hated us with the fire of a thousand suns. Miss him.
As an Iowa fan I expect a tough relatively low scoring game. Teams appear to have equal overall talent. NW appears to have that clutch gene that Iowa lacks. Temperature looks like the low 30’s with moderate winds.
The “clutch” characteristic is largely a myth.
And with 1 minute left against Nebraska.Except in overtime.
Derek Jeter was the clutchiest!And with 1 minute left against Nebraska.
haha - check out the headline ESPN article they posted on Monday about how much the sports books lost on Sunday... talking about all the skewed lines to the favorites and popular teams and how they all won... I bet the Sports Books were all too happy to provide commentary and help the article got posted, just to encourage all the bettors out there that they can win and that it's not a rigged game.Here’s the way it works, unfortunately. If a spread doesn’t make sense at first glance, there’s gotta be a reason that they’re begging you to take the points.
Here’s the way it works, unfortunately. If a spread doesn’t make sense at first glance, there’s gotta be a reason that they’re begging you to take the points.
Boy, do I feel dumb for jumping the gun on NU...
The line is now Iowa -11, despite only 19% of public bets on Iowa. This "reverse line movement" is an indication that sharp professional money is on Iowa, while Joe Blow (and me) saw NU as a double digit dog and wet our pants.
Boy, do I feel dumb for jumping the gun on NU...
The line is now Iowa -11, despite only 19% of public bets on Iowa. This "reverse line movement" is an indication that sharp professional money is on Iowa, while Joe Blow (and me) saw NU as a double digit dog and wet our pants.
The computers think Iowa is going to win by 17 so +11 is still value.
These statistical computer models are correct about 55 percent of time compared to Joe Blow who is as accurate as a coin flip.
So these computer models are only about 5% more accurate than a coin toss? That seems pretty negligible to me.
So these computer models are only about 5% more accurate than a coin toss? That seems pretty negligible to me.
If you bet large sums of money on a 100 games in a season and win big 55 percent of the time you are happy. The guys betting big on this game are using that logic in trusting the math.
I mentioned this in another thread. Will repost here:
55% is considered ultra-professional level success when it comes to spread picking over an extended period of time. These are razor-thin margins that bettors work with. 50% is a chimp flipping a coin. 52.3% is break-even with the traditional -110 vigorish charged by bookmakers. Anything above 52.3% is profitable. 55% is amazing.
I don’t get the Iowa love by Vegas.
They lost to all the pretty good match-up opponents they’ve played this year (PSU, UW and PU) including one of those at home.
NU also has a meaningfully better defense than Iowa statistically (note: 3rd in B1G scoring D behind only Michigan and MSU) despite playing a harder B1G slate of teams to date than Iowa (UM/ MSU/ Nebraska/ Rutgers vs PSU/ Mary/ Minny/ IU).
Iowa’s offense is also the type that NU matches up very well with and has locked down pretty well this year (like UM, UW, MSU). NU’s D this year is built perfectly for UW and Iowa. Spread offenses like Nebby, PU and ND scare me more.
Nate Stanley is also the prototypical gaff machine Iowa QB that our secondary has picked on the past decade.
Our offense matches up pretty well with their defense too, which is merely a solid group on par with Wisconsin and Purdue. The Iowa D is nowhere near UM or MSU (or ND) level.
B1G Team Stats:
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confonly?path=football#team
I may actually make a bet this week...
In all 3 of Iowa losses, they had golden opportunities to win, but flukey things happened. I was at the Wisconsin game where 2 special teams gaffes from Iowa's punt return team gave the game to the Badgers. Against Purdue the officiating was horrendous, and in the Pena State loss a weird interception at the 5 yard line (don't know why Iowa didn't just try to run it) was the ball game. So, as an Iowa fan, this season has been very frustrating, with lost opportunities to be sitting at 9 - 0, or at very least 8 -1. Oh well, I'll be in Kinnick this Sat hoping for a beatdown of the fighting Fitzies.I don’t get the Iowa love by Vegas.
They lost to all the pretty good match-up opponents they’ve played this year (PSU, UW and PU) including one of those at home.
NU also has a meaningfully better defense than Iowa statistically (note: 3rd in B1G scoring D behind only Michigan and MSU) despite playing a harder B1G slate of teams to date than Iowa (UM/ MSU/ Nebraska/ Rutgers vs PSU/ Mary/ Minny/ IU).
Iowa’s offense is also the type that NU matches up very well with and has locked down pretty well this year (like UM, UW, MSU). NU’s D this year is built perfectly for UW and Iowa. Spread offenses like Nebby, PU and ND scare me more.
Nate Stanley is also the prototypical gaff machine Iowa QB that our secondary has picked on the past decade.
Our offense matches up pretty well with their defense too, which is merely a solid group on par with Wisconsin and Purdue. The Iowa D is nowhere near UM or MSU (or ND) level.
B1G Team Stats:
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confonly?path=football#team
I may actually make a bet this week...
And if my aunt had a mustache she’d be my uncle. Typical whiny I_wa fan.I don’t get the Iowa love by Vegas.
They lost to all the pretty good match-up opponents they’ve played this year (PSU, UW and PU) including one of those at home.
NU also has a meaningfully better defense than Iowa statistically (note: 3rd in B1G scoring D behind only Michigan and MSU) despite playing a harder B1G slate of teams to date than Iowa (UM/ MSU/ Nebraska/ Rutgers vs PSU/ Mary/ Minny/ IU).
Iowa’s offense is also the type that NU matches up very well with and has locked down pretty well this year (like UM, UW, MSU). NU’s D this year is built perfectly for UW and Iowa. Spread offenses like Nebby, PU and ND scare me more.
Nate Stanley is also the prototypical gaff machine Iowa QB that our secondary has picked on the past decade.
Our offense matches up pretty well with their defense too, which is merely a solid group on par with Wisconsin and Purdue. The Iowa D is nowhere near UM or MSU (or ND) level.
B1G Team Stats:
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confonly?path=football#team
I may actually make a bet this week...In all 3 of Iowa losses, they had golden opportunities to win, but flukey things happened. I was at the Wisconsin game where 2 special teams gaffes from Iowa's punt return team gave the game to the Badgers. Against Purdue the officiating was horrendous, and in the Pena State loss a weird interception at the 5 yard line (don't know why Iowa didn't just try to run it) was the ball game. So, as an Iowa fan, this season has been very frustrating, with lost opportunities to be sitting at 9 - 0, or at very least 8 -1. Oh well, I'll be in Kinnick this Sat hoping for a beatdown of the fighting Fitzies.I don’t get the Iowa love by Vegas.
They lost to all the pretty good match-up opponents they’ve played this year (PSU, UW and PU) including one of those at home.
NU also has a meaningfully better defense than Iowa statistically (note: 3rd in B1G scoring D behind only Michigan and MSU) despite playing a harder B1G slate of teams to date than Iowa (UM/ MSU/ Nebraska/ Rutgers vs PSU/ Mary/ Minny/ IU).
Iowa’s offense is also the type that NU matches up very well with and has locked down pretty well this year (like UM, UW, MSU). NU’s D this year is built perfectly for UW and Iowa. Spread offenses like Nebby, PU and ND scare me more.
Nate Stanley is also the prototypical gaff machine Iowa QB that our secondary has picked on the past decade.
Our offense matches up pretty well with their defense too, which is merely a solid group on par with Wisconsin and Purdue. The Iowa D is nowhere near UM or MSU (or ND) level.
B1G Team Stats:
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confonly?path=football#team
I may actually make a bet this week...
Here’s the way it works, unfortunately. If a spread doesn’t make sense at first glance, there’s gotta be a reason that they’re begging you to take the points.
A factor in the Cal loss was Dykes’ use of Luke Rubenzer as an alternate to Goff. Rubenzer gashed the Cats, played little the rest of the year and then converted to Safety from QB.Here's a fun stat:
Going back to the 2014 season, we have 22 losses. Only 3 of those 22 losses have come against teams who have a QB in the bottom half of the country when it comes to rushing - 2014 Cal (Goff), 2016 and 2017 Wisconsin (Hornibrook). That's it.
Stanley isn't a runner.
Go 'Cats.
Ah yes, how could I forget how he tore us apart. So then it's really just the two Wisconsin losses then. In short, the 'Cats defense is well suited to play against traditional offenses like Iowa's. Add in the fact that Fitz hates Iowa, plus we're something like 11-2 with 7 outright wins in our last 13 games as underdogs, and we might as well not even play the game tomorrow.A factor in the Cal loss was Dykes’ use of Luke Rubenzer as an alternate to Goff. Rubenzer gashed the Cats, played little the rest of the year and then converted to Safety from QB.
Here's a fun stat:
Going back to the 2014 season, we have 22 losses. Only 3 of those 22 losses have come against teams who have a QB in the bottom half of the country when it comes to rushing - 2014 Cal (Goff), 2016 and 2017 Wisconsin (Hornibrook). That's it.
Stanley isn't a runner.
Go 'Cats.
It’s that easy huh? Should we just let Ferentz know they can forfeit ahead of time and save the carbon emissions from the team’s trip to Iowa City?Ah yes, how could I forget how he tore us apart. So then it's really just the two Wisconsin losses then. In short, the 'Cats defense is well suited to play against traditional offenses like Iowa's. Add in the fact that Fitz hates Iowa, plus we're something like 11-2 with 7 outright wins in our last 13 games as underdogs, and we might as well not even play the game tomorrow.
I assume you didn't watch any of the 3 games I referenced...typical uniformed N'Western "fan".And if my aunt had a mustache she’d be my uncle. Typical whiny I_wa fan.
And Iowa hates Fitz, goes both ways.Ah yes, how could I forget how he tore us apart. So then it's really just the two Wisconsin losses then. In short, the 'Cats defense is well suited to play against traditional offenses like Iowa's. Add in the fact that Fitz hates Iowa, plus we're something like 11-2 with 7 outright wins in our last 13 games as underdogs, and we might as well not even play the game tomorrow.