Opening line: NU -21.5 vs Akron

[EvanstonCat]

Clearly he does not.

Hey mods, if you're going to delete the beautiful exchange that only the privileged few were able to observe just now, why wouldn't you start with the opening salvo?

Just saying.

 

[CatManTrue]

I'm pretty sure it was you. Either that, or we are just both naturally assholes. Which is probably the most likely case.

Speaking of the standoff... I’ll be Blondie.

Which of you two are Tuco & Sentenza?

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Hey mods, if you're going to delete the beautiful exchange that only the privileged few were able to observe just now, why wouldn't you start with the opening salvo?

Just saying.

They can’t handle the truth.

 

[CatManTrue]

They can’t handle the truth.

Oh man, you’re making it too easy. I’m fighting the urge to post a gif from “A Few Good Men”, and thus becoming the new thewildcat2011.

 

[freewillie07]

Adjusting a scheme mid game isn't really possible. For example, if you run outside zone, you can't switch to man blocking on the fly. The concepts require different techniques.

Play calling can be altered to combat disruptive defensive tactics, but Mick's hands were tied to an extent. Losing Green to targeting hurt because he's a mismatch weapon with experience that can be used to exploit weaknesses in coverage. It seemed like McCall/Thorson was trying to compensate for that loss with Larkin, but Jeremy, while improving, isn't quite at the level JJ was last year. With Brown and Vault unavailable, the lack of an experienced vertical threat certainly didn't help matters either. NU can scheme open receivers in the intermediate passing game (the Michigan State & OSU 2016 games are great examples of this), but it requires precise route running and time for those routes to develop, which leads us to...

...the big guys up front. A leaky offensive line can spell doom for even the strongest offenses. Duke likes to press our WRs and when you're in comeback mode (eg: mostly passing) it's much easier for the defense to "pin their ears" and rush the QB - see the last few offensive possessions by NU. There's a reason Fitz pulled Thorson late. It was dangerous for him out there without Slater and Hance on the field. There was nothing Mick or anyone else could really do at that point. The protection was non existent.

Great post. Appreciate you taking the time to write it.

 

[epicbret]

I wish they would have played UNL

 

[mikewebb68]

I wish they would have played UNL

Don't know about that-- they might have had the momentum of TWO wins coming into our game..

 

[GlideCat]

Don't know about that-- they might have had the momentum of TWO wins coming into our game..

UNL did not play badly against a middle-of-the-pack Colorado team. I am not going to mock them or take them lightly.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

UNL did not play badly against a middle-of-the-pack Colorado team. I am not going to mock them or take them lightly.

They’re toast if Martinez is limited.

 

[Chuckster1973]

Agreed, but he is expected to play Saturday

 

[epicbret]

Interesting article here from Bill C

S&P not liking the Cats, and Akron is better than they have been the last few years.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/9/12/17849896/college-football-2018-win-projections

 

[epicbret]

I think Jeremy Larkin vs Ulysees Gilbert III is the primary match-up to watch on offense for the Cats, as Gilbert is a tackling machine and flies around. I'd expect first contact from him quite often, especially if the line is banged up.

This of course puts the onus on our WR's to beat MAC cornerbacks, which might be a task considering the criticisms OTB of our WR being MAC caliber.

 

[zeek55]

Interesting article here from Bill C

S&P not liking the Cats, and Akron is better than they have been the last few years.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/9/12/17849896/college-football-2018-win-projections

Seems a bit weird to me to make the model overreact to the first couple of games. The only early games that are predictive are games where a team loses to a significantly worse team. When you have that kind of situation, I can understand a big rating shift.

i.e. that Purdue loss to EMU says more about Purdue than either of our games say about us, Duke, or Purdue.

We saw last year that our big loss to Duke didn't really tell us that much about either team other than that Duke matches up well against us and exploits our weaknesses well.

They beat us the exact same way this year. But that doesn't tell you anything about how we'll play against anybody else.

I had us as 20-30 point favorites against Akron before the Duke game, and the opening line matches that.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Seems a bit weird to me to make the model overreact to the first couple of games. The only early games that are predictive are games where a team loses to a significantly worse team. When you have that kind of situation, I can understand a big rating shift.

i.e. that Purdue loss to EMU says more about Purdue than either of our games say about us, Duke, or Purdue.

We saw last year that our big loss to Duke didn't really tell us that much about either team other than that Duke matches up well against us and exploits our weaknesses well.

They beat us the exact same way this year. But that doesn't tell you anything about how we'll play against anybody else.

I had us as 20-30 point favorites against Akron before the Duke game, and the opening line matches that.

Agreed.

S&P+ generally doesn't have a great handle on this program as it values traits like explosiveness on offense and what they call "2nd order wins" over things like turnovers.

NU's overachieving is, more or less, considered to be a statistical anomaly/unstable in relation to this metric.

 

[Chuckster1973]

Amazing, they now have us below Illinois. Makes no sense.

 

[mikewebb68]

I think Jeremy Larkin vs Ulysees Gilbert III is the primary match-up to watch on offense for the Cats, as Gilbert is a tackling machine and flies around. I'd expect first contact from him quite often, especially if the line is banged up.

This of course puts the onus on our WR's to beat MAC cornerbacks, which might be a task considering the criticisms OTB of our WR being MAC caliber.

Minnesota at 7 wins and us at 4 essentially makes this model a joke, imo.

 

[mikewebb68]

UNL did not play badly against a middle-of-the-pack Colorado team. I am not going to mock them or take them lightly.

Colorado was picked as the third-worst team in the PAC-12 by the media in the preseason

 

[BigCatFan19]

With both our tackles ailing, Thorson possibly sitting some or most (especially if we get a 2 score lead), Fitz not running up the score typically, and Akron having a mobile QB in Kato Nelson, there is no way I would lay the 21.5. I suspect the under may be an even better play.

In years past I would really agree with you. However, with T.J. Green we might be able to keep the foot on the gas - despite the play calling.

 

[Chuckster1973]

Several members of the Big Ten football and Beyond and Big Ten live shows have been stating that Minnesota is probably the surprise team of the conference and should do much better than people expected

 

[FloridAlum]

Several members of the Big Ten football and Beyond and Big Ten live shows have been stating that Minnesota is probably the surprise team of the conference and should do much better than people expected

Don’t bet on it. They have a rookie quarterback, and have now lost both of their top two running back’s for the season

 

[Chuckster1973]

Agree, I don't believe it just surprised that they're the flavor of the week

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Agree, I don't believe it just surprised that they're the flavor of the week

They should have an easy win this week, so that Mo will probably grow and PJ stories will flow.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

BTW, hate these large spreads at home. Wouldn’t touch this one.

 

[Fitz51]

Several members of the Big Ten football and Beyond and Big Ten live shows have been stating that Minnesota is probably the surprise team of the conference and should do much better than people expected

It will be a surprise if they stay afloat.

 

[Fitz51]

BTW, hate these large spreads at home. Wouldn’t touch this one.

Agreed. Dog or no bet here.