OT: Our long national nightmare is over
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All the worries about pitching all year, and it was their offense that killed them. I think it's about time to end the "batting practice isn't that important" mantra.
I wouldn't read too much into it. That is the agony of baseball. A long marathon of a season can end in one day if you go cold at the right (wrong) time.
The Cubs should not overreact to this result. They lost 2 pivotal games by the slimmest of margins. That's baseball. The key is to not be in that position come post season. The Brewers outplayed their Pythagorean record by 5 games. The Cubs by one. The Cubs have a very good roster, with tons of lefty thump, good defenders, and enough pitching. They are getting old in the rotation, but there's easily enough left for another run or two.
The best thing that can happen to the Cubs in 2019 is Bryant's return to full health. Hard to say what kind of shape his shoulder is in (I suspect a bum labrum), but it would not shock me if they move him to LF. Of course, there is also Yu's elbow. But a rotation of Lester, Darvish, Hendricks, Hamels and Quintana is pretty dam good.
I assume Addison Russell will be gone in 2019 and Baez moves to short. Murphy is not a horrible fielder (slightly below average according to most defensive metrics, but he slipped in 2018 to -10 runs--not good) but he will be a defensive downgrade on the infield.
But get this: Murphy has a career .979 OPS at Wrigley. Also.856 at Busch 3, 1.0789 at Cincy Great America, .833 at Miller, and .886 at PNC. He destroys baseballs in NL Central parks. That should make Cub fans salivate a bit.
The best thing that can happen to the Cubs in 2019 is Bryant's return to full health. Hard to say what kind of shape his shoulder is in (I suspect a bum labrum), but it would not shock me if they move him to LF. Of course, there is also Yu's elbow. But a rotation of Lester, Darvish, Hendricks, Hamels and Quintana is pretty dam good.
I assume Addison Russell will be gone in 2019 and Baez moves to short. Murphy is not a horrible fielder (slightly below average according to most defensive metrics, but he slipped in 2018 to -10 runs--not good) but he will be a defensive downgrade on the infield.
But get this: Murphy has a career .979 OPS at Wrigley. Also.856 at Busch 3, 1.0789 at Cincy Great America, .833 at Miller, and .886 at PNC. He destroys baseballs in NL Central parks. That should make Cub fans salivate a bit.
Murphy is BAD anywhere you put him. He's gone next season, probably to the AL as a DH. They will try and trade Heyward and possibly Zobrist as well. Zobrist total no trade is over and Heyward only has a partial no trade for next season. depending on what charges MLB gives Russell, I think they would like to bring him to spring training and after he proves he's ok, trade him for some value. They need a second baseman and a closer next season, for sure and maybe a starting pitcher id Darvish can't go. Still 95 wins isn't something to look down at and just maybe a managerial change is looming. NU guy Joe Girardi is available. Sorry about the long OT post but it's been a frustrating two days.
Their offense has been mediocre the entire last half of the season. They need to teach some of their younger guys the meaning of the strike zone. If they're going to get themselves into two-strike holes by waiting out pitchers, which seems to be the modern philosophy, they'd better learn how to hit with two strikes. It might help consistency if Maddon would ever use a similar lineup two days in a row. For the division championship, my feeling is that if two teams tie you should go to the head-to-head record between the two teams rather than play a 163rd game. If you're going to play 19 games against a division rival, why not put some weight on them?
Maddon does some things that drive me nuts, but it's hard to support letting a guy go after the team has reached postseason four years in a row.
They won’t be able to give J Hey away for a bag of balls with that contract. Move Happ or Bote to 2B and give them a full time shot. Zo is one of their best players, but don’t expect a repeat of this year. There is zero in the bullpen and kills the team with Joe’s notorious quick hooks. I don’t see Babe coming back so maybe they can get some BP help for him. The pieces don’t quite fit on this team.
Happ can play 2B? Wuh?
If Murphy's D is too much to stomach at 2B, you can hide him in LF, where he may actually have less value as a defender (according to Fangraphs). That means trading the cost-controlled Schwobber, probably to an AL team. I have no idea what he might fetch in return, but the Cubs do need to restock their farm system after liquidating it in recent trades.
But if Murph walks, maybe you keep Baez at 2B and sign Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias for SS. Neither hits much, but both are very good fielders. They actually had a higher OPS than Russell did in 2018.
JHey's contract looks absurd but he was still a 2 WAR player in 2018. He is a very good defender who can easily spell Almora in CF. I'd keep him. He's not that far removed from a 19 WAR stretch over 4 years.
Bullpens are the easiest thing to fix, and often it makes sense to fix them during the season, rather than before. Reliever performance is very variable, and sometimes big investments in the most recent hot bullpen arm goes horribly wrong (as a Cardinals fan, I have seen them do this with contracts for Brett Cecil, Dom Leone, and Greg Holland. Holland was horrifically bad in his 3 months in The Lou). The best way to stock a pen is to use some of your young pitching talent, make sure you have a few proven vets under control, and take flyers on some guys coming off a down season, injury, etc. Cast a wide net and see what falls out that's useful, then fill holes at the deadline.
If Murphy's D is too much to stomach at 2B, you can hide him in LF, where he may actually have less value as a defender (according to Fangraphs). That means trading the cost-controlled Schwobber, probably to an AL team. I have no idea what he might fetch in return, but the Cubs do need to restock their farm system after liquidating it in recent trades.
But if Murph walks, maybe you keep Baez at 2B and sign Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias for SS. Neither hits much, but both are very good fielders. They actually had a higher OPS than Russell did in 2018.
JHey's contract looks absurd but he was still a 2 WAR player in 2018. He is a very good defender who can easily spell Almora in CF. I'd keep him. He's not that far removed from a 19 WAR stretch over 4 years.
Bullpens are the easiest thing to fix, and often it makes sense to fix them during the season, rather than before. Reliever performance is very variable, and sometimes big investments in the most recent hot bullpen arm goes horribly wrong (as a Cardinals fan, I have seen them do this with contracts for Brett Cecil, Dom Leone, and Greg Holland. Holland was horrifically bad in his 3 months in The Lou). The best way to stock a pen is to use some of your young pitching talent, make sure you have a few proven vets under control, and take flyers on some guys coming off a down season, injury, etc. Cast a wide net and see what falls out that's useful, then fill holes at the deadline.
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Just a question. How many guys did they have on that roster? Was it down to 25 or was it something more?
In 2019, Bryant (a2), Schwarber (1), Baez (1), Hendricks (2), Montgomery (1), and Edwards (1) will ALL be in arbitration. In 2020, they will be joined by Contreras (1) and Almora (1). Rizzo is on a very team-friendly deal that ends in 2020.
Baez (age 25) - coming off an MVP-caliber season.
Bryant (26) - looks like a cornerstone.
Hendricks (28) - one of those rare guys who really knows how to pitch without worrying about losing stuff on his fastball.
Contreras - 26 years old, All Star at a premium position
Almora - 24, very good CF
Do you see what is going on here?
The Cubs will not be able to afford to keep all of these players, even with a $200M payroll.
Schwobber is a fine hitter, but he has one position (unless you want to bump Rizzo from first -- cough). Murphy can play multiple positions, and probably can be had for $10-$12 per year. He's not unlike Zo, who has one more year before he rides off.
So at some point, you are going to trade one of these young, cost-controlled players because you cannot afford to keep them. Schwobber will have a value to an AL team seeking a cost-controlled bat. He should have decent value.
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I thought the trade Zobrist or trade Mlb talent to build back the farm system we’re going to be the worst posts on here, but this, this takes the cake.
Trade Schwarber because Murphy can play multiple positions and be had for 10-12 per year? Is DH a position? He hasn’t played outside of the left side of the infield since 2015!! He’s nothing like Zobrist who does play multiple positions well. Murphy is so bad on D that he has had 1 3 WAR season in his career despite multiple years with an OPS over .900: Zobrist has 8 seasons over 3 WAR including this past one.
Additionally, sure you might be able to get Murphy for 10-12 per year. But you can also get Schwarber for at most half of that! He’s not a free agent until 2022 when Murphy will be 37. Murphy is a great bet to decline in performance while Schwarber is a great bet to improve.
Schwarber also is a leader on the team. Murphy....Murphy is not.
Choosing Murphy over Schwarber is like choosing Mercury treatements over modern medicine.
Yes, but Murphy is well into his 30s as is Zobrist. Lester and Hamels are also getting up in age. They both might have another good season or two in them, but I don't think much beyond that. If Darvish can't come back from his arm woes next year, they're still going to be in the market for pitching. It was a disappointing year in some respect, but when you consider the nagging injury to Bryant, Rizzo's slow start, a fall-off at the plate by Contreras, and little contribution from Darvish or Chatwood, it probably was surprising they won 95 games.
Don't worry.. The Cubs will get some reinforcements form the minors once Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease come up.
Oh wait...
Oh wait...
LOL. Convenient how you completely ignore the payroll situation in this argument.
In a vacuum, Schwarber vs. Murphy is a no-brainer.
But it is a bit more complicated than that.
Here is the link to Cots' Cub payroll matrix for 2019 and beyond.
I am not sure where you get your WAR data on Murphy. In 2016 he had 5.7 fWAR for the Nats. In 2017, he had 4.4 fWAR for the Nats. That is 10.1 fWAR over 2 seasons while starting at 2B. That is outstanding (note that fWAR includes defensive value).
One of the reasons Murphy was stuck at 2B for the Nats is that there is some guy named Anthony Rendon in Washington. Perhaps you have heard of him?
But I will agree that Murphy is very limited in the field. I made this clear in my prior post. You are going to give up defense no matter where you stick him, which is why I offered an alternative solution of letting him walk, keeping Baez at 2B, and signing one of two relatively low-cost, slick fielding, limited stick FA shortstops (Iglesias or Galvis, each of whom actually posted a higher OPS than the now suspended Addison Russell last season).
What is your proposed solution? Are are you too busy hyperventilating telling me how dumb I am to come up with some ideas? My Ignore list has openings for men like you.
Now, if you need a jack of all trades, corner IF/OF option, Zo is a great option. He is signed for one more year. He will also turn 38 next May. He could be your starting LF in 2019.
Now, Schwarber is a nice player. 3.2 fWAR in 2018 thanks to a 15% BB rate and a .220 ISO. He ranked #8 in fWAR among all MLB LFs in 2018. He is a good hitter, and he is a passable defender in the smaller confines of Wrigley's LF. Plus, he's gritty, cuddly, part Grabowski, and has that post-season mystique to his name. How could one not worship the Schwobber?????
But...he has one position in the National League. The Cubs' payroll crunch is coming fast. He is one of their most tradable and expendable players (all the Grabowski love aside).
I have to go now and ingest some mercury.
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Your last sentence is why I argued that the Cubs should not overreact to the playoff loss. It is a good roster.
But Theo knows darn well that they are about to enter a world of payroll constraint (unless the Ricketts intend to pay the luxury tax). Those arbitration years are really going to start to bite, and Rizzo's deal also masks how tight things are going to be. I did forget that they have very good options on Rizzo in 2019 ($11M) and 2020-21 ($14.5 M each) They are fortunate to hold 2 club options on Q for 2019 and 2020 at $10.5M each year. That's a steal for a guy like Q. And they have an option on Strop for 2019 at about $6M.
That's all good because the cost of the Cubs' potentially outstanding (but old) 2019 rotation is staggering.
The 2019 option on Hamels is $20M. Assuming they take that, a 2019 rotation of Lester ($27.5), Hendricks (assume $10), Hamels ($20), Q ($11.5), and Darvish ($20) will cost $89 M. Throw in the dead money for Chatwood ($12.5), and that is $100M for starters alone. Yeesh.
For comparison purposes, the putative 2019 Red Sox rotation of Price, Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez (assume salary doubles to $5M in arb 2) and Eovaldi (assume $5M) is $61M.
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The Cubs payroll situation is getting more complex but I would not describe it as a crunch. The only way you describe it as a crunch is if they choose to continue to confine themselves to a sub luxury tax payroll. The top big market teams don’t do that when their window is open and I don’t think the Cubs will either. Don’t forget Cubs revenues are scheduled to jump exponentially when their TV deal expires/Cubs TV is launched and Theo’s budget will jump in anticipation of that. I was not a fan of the rumors earlier in the year but now think a run at Machado may be possible. I prefer him to Harper by a wide margin. In light of theo’s comments yesterday, Chili davis should also be brushing up his resume. Our offense completely broke down the second half of this year.
I don't think the Cubs have a payroll crunch. There's no salary cap in MLB, Wrigley Field is an absolute license to print money, and the new tv deal will make them rich beyond the dreams of avarice.
Hard to say. The Ricketts family borrowed a lot to buy the Cubs and WF, and then spend nearly $500M to fix up WF. They have probably maxed out the incremental revenues from WF (adding seats, adding signage, concert events, etc.) beyond raising prices on tickets and concessions.
The 2019 luxury tax threshold is $206M. I can see the Cubs getting very close to that number.
The Ricketts family borrowed a meaningful amount to buy the Cubs not because they didn’t have the wherewithal to finance the purchase otherwise but because that was one of the conditions of the sale imposed by the seller. Sam Zell was trying to achieve preferred tax treatement on the sale of the Cubs and part of that tax strategy required the buyer to acquire the business using significant leverage. The Tribune Compny was ultimately sued by the government for that strategy and the whole structure was invalidated. The salient point is that the Ricketts family had/has more than enough resources and the current balance sheet for the Cubs is likely much tamer now than it was when they purchased the club. I will also say that the plan all along was to dramatically increase the payroll of the club once the sweetheart TV deal for Comcast & WGN (a Tribune owned Company) matured and renegotiated to market rates. The financial impact of a new TV deal on the Cubs cash flow is huge. The luxury tax threshold will not be much of a financial impediment once the new TV deal is in place.
Zobrist is getting old and while he has been great and has maybe another year of top baseball would it be better to get something for him? Don't know about Schwarber but he is limitedin the field and is sort of a redundant piece and the Cubs are back to having holes to fill. It might be best. I am not a Cub fan so I am only talking as an outsider and nothing I say matters.
For the very same reasons you cite, zobrist’s trade value is basically nil while his use value is still meaningful. He is in his last year of his deal so you let him play out his deal and retire a Cub. Schwarber is an enigma to me. He is a much better outfielder than he is given credit for but his bat has been disappointing. I watched him play in the minors and early in his Cub career and his greatest strength was his knowledge/control of the strike zone with the ability to generate great power. A rare combination, particularly for a lefty. His strike zone judgment has deteriorated and that has made him a much less effective hitter. This guy has the potential to bat 270, hit 40 Homer’s and drive in 100 rbi every year but he has been unable to put together a full season like that. I have some doubts now he ever will. My guess is that they give Schwarber another year to put it all together. Theo has his work cut out for him this offseason to sort through this jig saw puzzle. There will be trades but my guess is that Almora/Happ are the pieces most likely to get traded.
I'd just like to see Schwarber have a year where they aren't sitting him (and several other guys) every other game to see what he can do. If he can't get it together, OK. Baseball is a game of streaks, and I can't believe it's productive to go 4-4 in a game and find yourself sitting on the bench the next day. Many managers platoon and mix lineups nowadays, but Maddon seems to take it a notch further by constantly switching spots in the batting order. Rizzo was anywhere from 1 to 6 this year, Bryant was all over the order, and it was musical chairs in the outfield. You might see Mookie Betts get a day off at Boston, but when he's in you weren't seeing him at many places but leadoff this year. I still think putting Schwarber at leadoff last season, not a natural spot for him, messed with his mind. I'm not a believer in putting a big power hitter at leadoff unless he hits for high average or his excellent speed (Betts checks both boxes). If I've got a guy who can hit it out of the park, I don't want to guarantee that 20 to 25 percent of his at-bats each game will come with nobody on base.
Whether or not the purchase was financed via debt or equity is somewhat secondary. I would agree that any real cash flow constraints are probably not an issue, but one must keep in mind that it is reasonable that the Ricketts family expects to earn a competitive return on the roughly $1.6B invested (back of the envelop based on Cubs purchase price and reports of cost of WF reno). This is hardly venture capital, but a competitive return, using free cash flow, might be around 10% per year, or $160M.
The Forbes numbers, which can be a bit puzzling, say the Cubs generated $102M in operating income (basically EBTIDA) n 2017. However, their revenue figure is net of debt, so it is more like EBTDA (I think).
Regardless $100M before tax <<< $160M free cash flow, if you accept these loose assumptions.
As you note, the game changer is the plan to launch a Cubs network. Fangraphs wrote about it last spring. The value of this property, in annual income, could be??? I have no idea. $100M could be a low estimate.
Your analysis is flawed. The Ricketts’ equity investment in the business is much lower than that figure, primarily because the initial deal was financed with a big slug of debt. I also doubt the Forbes figure you cited based on the last set of numbers I saw. While it’s probably not far off, that figure is probably a bit on the high side. Lastly you are neglecting the appreciation of their investment. Given the timing of the deal (right at the onset of the financial crisis and just before purchase price multiples for sports franchises went through the roof), the Ricketts got a steal of a deal. The Cubs are worth easily 3x the amount they were purchased for because of improved cash flows and multiple expansion. When you look at the ROE based on current enterprise value multiples, the return for the family is astronomical and that is all before factoring in the huge positive impact of the new TV deal.
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The Cubs don't really have a traditional prototype "leadoff" hitter, which, frankly, is a bit of a fallacy. What you really want are your best hitters, measured by OPS, hitting more often, which means putting them at the top of the order.
Schwarber and Rizzo both have high on-base percentages. Schwarber's 15% walk rate is elite, so his .240 batting average masks the fact that he got on base about 36% of the time in 2018. That's pretty good where league average was about .320 in 2018. Rizzo had a .376 OBP. Zobrist and Happ were two other guys with pretty high OBPs this year.
I didn’t ignore the payroll element at all. I noted how Schwarber’s cost is going to be about half of Murphy’s through Murphy’s age 27 season.
The WAR comes from Baseball Reference. (FWar is fan graphs and rwar is baseball reference).
Murphy ranked dead last amongst second basemen with -18 defensive runs saved despite only playing 535 innings there and fourth from last in uzr.
He has never had positive drs at 2b or 3b, and only figures to get worse while Schwarber was actually a small positive on defense and only figures to get better.
Schwarber also had a higher wrc+ this year.
Finally, when you have a roster where any of Happ, Zobrist, or Bote can play second, why would you make yourself worse and pay more money to move Baez back to second?
He’s not a great shortstop but he’s fine. And his hitting more than makes up for it.
I think we agree that Murphy is a bad defender.
You trust Bote or Happ more at 2B than I do, which is fine. I don't know enough about them to say they can play significant innings there.
Zo is a good option for 2B, moving to Baez to SS. Not a huge downgrade (assuming Russell is simply not an option in 2019).
If you do not accept the assumption that payroll is becoming an issue (which is fine--not clear that it is), then there is not much to discuss.
Did anyone watch Murphy try to turn a DP or run the bases?
How are their major league stats?
Willy, you and everyone in the Cubs organization would reverse this trade if they could. Cubs got fleeced.
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