I know we are all in "woe is me" mode, but we do have a game tonight. Cats are +6.5 @PSU.
Preamble / side note, really hate these Fri night games, hope that it is just a one-off thing this year cause of the dumb B1G decision to screw the whole season up in order to play at MSG a week early.
Brief review of PSU, I'm sure others may be able to add more:
- They are a very good defensive team (#17 KenPom). They are pretty long and athletic, and importantly are anchored by Mike Watkins down low who has got long arms and is avging 9 rebs and 3.4 blocks. We need to watch him when we are driving, or maybe DP can get him into foul trouble.
- They are a mediocre offensive team #86 KenPom. They aren't filled with lots of good shooters, but do have a few - most notably Tony Carr, their PG and leading scorer, who is shooting 51% from 3 this year (31-61) and averaging 18.7 ppg. Secondly is Shep Garner, their bomber who shoots almost exclusively 3s, but is maintaining a 40% clip on high volume (47-118). And Josh Reaves, a solid role player who avg-es 11 ppg and is shooting 42% from 3. Those are the guys we need to watch on the perimeter. I think we should and will put Vic on Carr, given Ash's recent defensive struggles.
- Watkins is a force inside, but more on the defensive end than the offensive end - from what I've seen on O he is more like a Dererk Pardon type from his early years - shoots high % shots from close in and putbacks. Lamar Stevens is slightly more versatile but still not really going to stretch the floor.
- Play a fast pace (71.8 possessions per game, #91 in KenPom and that's quite fast for a B1G team)
- They don't have a ton of depth that I've seen, their starting 5 are their core players.
- They are #43 overall in KP, we are down at #65 now. I think that spread is about fair.
We won't win if we play like we did on Tuesday, but I actually think this is a pretty good matchup for us. An opportunity to focus on defending a few players that have specific strengths. I'm hopeful we will come out more energetic after that dud - and heck at this point playing on the road in a fairly inviting environment (I've traveled there from NY for a couple games and the PSU bball crowd is not a loud one) is probably better for us than at Allstate. My keys to getting a win:
- Vic needs to win his defensive matchup against Tony Carr, use his length to limit him and control the game
- Would be great to have BMac back to create against their good D, if he is playing I think the best place to hide him on D would be against Garner - just close out against the 3s and if he drives past you others can help out.
- Play aggressive on offense - attack the hoop, get their bigs into foul trouble, and don't fall into the lethargic stupor that we did against Nebraska
- They like to play fast - if we have BMac (and probably even if not) I think we should match this pace. Our team is struggling to generate energy right now, pushing the pace more should help that. Also without BMac we struggle to create shots in halfcourt, so why not try to get out in transition? It can't really be worse than the alternative.
- Win the rebounding battle -- looking at DP, Skelly, and Vic. They aren't a huge team, but I think in order to beat them we need to show the hustle that has been inconsistent at times this year.
Recent play has given me no evidence to believe this, but I have a strange feeling we are going to bounce back and win tonight. But who knows, another dud would not at all be surprising. Lots of bball left let's not mail it in yet, this team is still better than many many others we've had in the past.
Go Cats!
Preamble / side note, really hate these Fri night games, hope that it is just a one-off thing this year cause of the dumb B1G decision to screw the whole season up in order to play at MSG a week early.
Brief review of PSU, I'm sure others may be able to add more:
- They are a very good defensive team (#17 KenPom). They are pretty long and athletic, and importantly are anchored by Mike Watkins down low who has got long arms and is avging 9 rebs and 3.4 blocks. We need to watch him when we are driving, or maybe DP can get him into foul trouble.
- They are a mediocre offensive team #86 KenPom. They aren't filled with lots of good shooters, but do have a few - most notably Tony Carr, their PG and leading scorer, who is shooting 51% from 3 this year (31-61) and averaging 18.7 ppg. Secondly is Shep Garner, their bomber who shoots almost exclusively 3s, but is maintaining a 40% clip on high volume (47-118). And Josh Reaves, a solid role player who avg-es 11 ppg and is shooting 42% from 3. Those are the guys we need to watch on the perimeter. I think we should and will put Vic on Carr, given Ash's recent defensive struggles.
- Watkins is a force inside, but more on the defensive end than the offensive end - from what I've seen on O he is more like a Dererk Pardon type from his early years - shoots high % shots from close in and putbacks. Lamar Stevens is slightly more versatile but still not really going to stretch the floor.
- Play a fast pace (71.8 possessions per game, #91 in KenPom and that's quite fast for a B1G team)
- They don't have a ton of depth that I've seen, their starting 5 are their core players.
- They are #43 overall in KP, we are down at #65 now. I think that spread is about fair.
We won't win if we play like we did on Tuesday, but I actually think this is a pretty good matchup for us. An opportunity to focus on defending a few players that have specific strengths. I'm hopeful we will come out more energetic after that dud - and heck at this point playing on the road in a fairly inviting environment (I've traveled there from NY for a couple games and the PSU bball crowd is not a loud one) is probably better for us than at Allstate. My keys to getting a win:
- Vic needs to win his defensive matchup against Tony Carr, use his length to limit him and control the game
- Would be great to have BMac back to create against their good D, if he is playing I think the best place to hide him on D would be against Garner - just close out against the 3s and if he drives past you others can help out.
- Play aggressive on offense - attack the hoop, get their bigs into foul trouble, and don't fall into the lethargic stupor that we did against Nebraska
- They like to play fast - if we have BMac (and probably even if not) I think we should match this pace. Our team is struggling to generate energy right now, pushing the pace more should help that. Also without BMac we struggle to create shots in halfcourt, so why not try to get out in transition? It can't really be worse than the alternative.
- Win the rebounding battle -- looking at DP, Skelly, and Vic. They aren't a huge team, but I think in order to beat them we need to show the hustle that has been inconsistent at times this year.
Recent play has given me no evidence to believe this, but I have a strange feeling we are going to bounce back and win tonight. But who knows, another dud would not at all be surprising. Lots of bball left let's not mail it in yet, this team is still better than many many others we've had in the past.
Go Cats!
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