My sense as I watch these very frustrating games (not just this year but even the last few more down years) is that we are, on average, more competitive than compared to games in prior years. As we can see, that does not always necessarily translate to more wins, but I see being more competitive as progress under Collins. So, I wanted to find an objective way to see if facts would support this observation. I have made comments to PWB in the past that even facts need further context - there are confounding factors that do not allow one to make what appear to be obvious conclusions.
To add a set of facts to the conversation (with apologies if this has been done before and I did not see it): I compared Collins’ years to Carmody years using the statistic SRS - it’s point differential adjusted for strength of schedule. I also looked at just point differential. Note that this includes all games, so non-conference blowouts can distort the figures. (My position on this is I think we should include these because I rarely remember blowing out anyone in years / decades past…so, we should give credit for this if it happens). I also did not look at years prior to Carmody, as we know how that would look.
I don’t attach stuff well, and can give more details if needed (though there’s not that much to it). Essentially, with all various yearly averages I tried (excluding the coach’s first year, latest year, both, excluding the worst / best years), I found that Collins’s average SRS ranged from 3.0-3.8 points higher than Carmody’s. It was 1.1-3.0 points higher without the SOS adjustment. To me, while I did not run a statistical validation of this, it seems like 3.5 points is a meaningful and material difference.
To a prior PWB observation, Carmody’s trend in SRS was heading upward until his year before his firing (his 4 best SRS years were the four prior to his last year). This could mean we made too quick a decision there. Collins’ year to year results are quite volatile, but even 2017-18 and 2018-19 had results much better than his results in 2013-14 and 2014-15.
Anyhow, most board folks know that I have been a supporter of Collins (of course, it’s getting more difficult game to game right now). I’m also a believer that the game changes over time, and it gets tougher and tougher for us to compete with our known limitations. I’m also a believer that close games are very largely won by players.
As others rightfully say, Collins owns these results, but we have to review them in an historical light to be fair. In that light, this SRS statistic suggests progress vs. his predecessor. I don’t pretend that this is a tell-all statistic. But, I do think it’s telling.
To add a set of facts to the conversation (with apologies if this has been done before and I did not see it): I compared Collins’ years to Carmody years using the statistic SRS - it’s point differential adjusted for strength of schedule. I also looked at just point differential. Note that this includes all games, so non-conference blowouts can distort the figures. (My position on this is I think we should include these because I rarely remember blowing out anyone in years / decades past…so, we should give credit for this if it happens). I also did not look at years prior to Carmody, as we know how that would look.
I don’t attach stuff well, and can give more details if needed (though there’s not that much to it). Essentially, with all various yearly averages I tried (excluding the coach’s first year, latest year, both, excluding the worst / best years), I found that Collins’s average SRS ranged from 3.0-3.8 points higher than Carmody’s. It was 1.1-3.0 points higher without the SOS adjustment. To me, while I did not run a statistical validation of this, it seems like 3.5 points is a meaningful and material difference.
To a prior PWB observation, Carmody’s trend in SRS was heading upward until his year before his firing (his 4 best SRS years were the four prior to his last year). This could mean we made too quick a decision there. Collins’ year to year results are quite volatile, but even 2017-18 and 2018-19 had results much better than his results in 2013-14 and 2014-15.
Anyhow, most board folks know that I have been a supporter of Collins (of course, it’s getting more difficult game to game right now). I’m also a believer that the game changes over time, and it gets tougher and tougher for us to compete with our known limitations. I’m also a believer that close games are very largely won by players.
As others rightfully say, Collins owns these results, but we have to review them in an historical light to be fair. In that light, this SRS statistic suggests progress vs. his predecessor. I don’t pretend that this is a tell-all statistic. But, I do think it’s telling.
