Scheduling philosophies

[CappyNU]

Happened to be looking through Big Ten schedules and was taken aback by Michigan State's absolutely insane start to the season this year, against ours.

MSU starts with one game against patsy Northern Arizona, but follows that up over the next 4 weeks with Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier, Kentucky in Indy, Villanova at home, Alabama, Uconn/Oregon and one of UNC/Portland/Iowa St/Villanova at their tourney in Portland, at Notre Dame in B1G/ACC challenge. Average Kenpom rating - 48-54 depending on opponents.

In that same 4 week span, we will have faced Chicago State, Northern Illinois, at Georgetown, Fort Wayne, Liberty and Auburn/Bradley in Mexico, and Pitt. Average Kenpom rating - 154-170 depending on tourney opponent.

After that 7 game death march for MSU, they face...us. So either they will be demoralized from taking a bunch of high-profile L's, or they will just wipe the floor with us after that stretch.

Which team is likely to be more prepared for the first conference game?

 

[NJCat]

Izzo has always played a difficult OOC schedule, although this season's schedule is insanely tough. He has the advantage of knowing his team will be at least good enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament on the basis of their B1G record plus a win or two against the tough OOC teams. There is no comparison of the situation between NU and MSU. Playing tougher OOC competition won't make NU players better or Collins coach better.

 

[IGNORE2]

Happened to be looking through Big Ten schedules and was taken aback by Michigan State's absolutely insane start to the season this year, against ours.

MSU starts with one game against patsy Northern Arizona, but follows that up over the next 4 weeks with Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier, Kentucky in Indy, Villanova at home, Alabama, Uconn/Oregon and one of UNC/Portland/Iowa St/Villanova at their tourney in Portland, at Notre Dame in B1G/ACC challenge. Average Kenpom rating - 48-54 depending on opponents.

In that same 4 week span, we will have faced Chicago State, Northern Illinois, at Georgetown, Fort Wayne, Liberty and Auburn/Bradley in Mexico, and Pitt. Average Kenpom rating - 154-170 depending on tourney opponent.

After that 7 game death march for MSU, they face...us. So either they will be demoralized from taking a bunch of high-profile L's, or they will just wipe the floor with us after that stretch.

Which team is likely to be more prepared for the first conference game?

I played almost every day on a Royal Caribbean cruise. That spot is much different. The breeze, the movement, the stuff moving in your vision. I mostly took it to the hole.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Playing tougher OOC competition won't make NU players better or Collins coach better.

I'd have to disagree with that. The part about the players. When you play patsies you don't learn much of anything, but even worse, the coaching staff can draw erroneous conclusions about their players. Some guys thrive on physical mismatches, but thats all they have, so when they get to the Big Ten, they struggle. Other players may not be so flashy, but they find ways to get the job done, no matter who they're up against. Those guys don't normally stand out in the non-conference games. The weak out of conference schedule could partly explain why Coach Collins usually seems to think his team goes 10 deep with no dropoff.

Maybe this year will be different.

 

[Secho99]

Happened to be looking through Big Ten schedules and was taken aback by Michigan State's absolutely insane start to the season this year, against ours.

Scheduling is a two-way street, though. We're not good enough or big enough of a brand to be invited to an elite tournament or to play on an aircraft carrier. We get invited to the tournaments where we might get a shot at a ranked team if we win our first game. We get stuck with teams like Pitt and Georgetown in the ACC and Big East crossovers. We aren't good enough that higher-tier teams from other leagues think we're an attractive draw, and we won't do much for their resume if they win. But we also aren't bad enough that we're a guaranteed win. Potential mid-major bubble teams certainly don't want anything to do with us either, because losing to us could be used against them in March.

I think it's fair to expect that we could get one or two better games in there, but I also don't think we're in a very good spot to schedule that much better overall. I can't remember if it was early in the CC tenure or late in the BC tenure, but the question was asked at one point and the answer was "we're trying to get better games but can't force teams to play us just because we want them to."

 

[EagerFan]

So either they will be demoralized from taking a bunch of high-profile L's, or they will just wipe the floor with us after that stretch.

why can’t it be both?

Based on the exhibition and our recent past, I suspect our out of conference schedule contains all we can handle and I hope we only have a pair of losses at the end of it, but that doesn’t look likely.

 

[NUCat320]

MSU’s always take a

Scheduling is a two-way street, though. We're not good enough or big enough of a brand to be invited to an elite tournament or to play on an aircraft carrier. We get invited to the tournaments where we might get a shot at a ranked team if we win our first game. We get stuck with teams like Pitt and Georgetown in the ACC and Big East crossovers. We aren't good enough that higher-tier teams from other leagues think we're an attractive draw, and we won't do much for their resume if they win. But we also aren't bad enough that we're a guaranteed win. Potential mid-major bubble teams certainly don't want anything to do with us either, because losing to us could be used against them in March.

I think it's fair to expect that we could get one or two better games in there, but I also don't think we're in a very good spot to schedule that much better overall. I can't remember if it was early in the CC tenure or late in the BC tenure, but the question was asked at one point and the answer was "we're trying to get better games but can't force teams to play us just because we want them to."

I think Carmody talked openly about wanting Duke to agree to a game.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

When Carmody was coach we'd schedule home-and-home series with teams like Baylor, Stanford, Butler, etc, and mix those in with the cupcakes.

This year we play zero road games other than the one against the Big East required by the Big Ten.

It looks like somebody in the athletic department thinks padding the overall record is more important than getting the team ready for the Big Ten season.

By comparison, here is Saint Louis University's non-conference slate...

Murray State, Evansville, Memphis*, tournament (Maryland, Providence, Miami (FL)), Paul Quinn, @Auburn*, Tennessee St, Southern Illinois, @Iona*, Boise State*, Drake, SIU-Edwardsville

* home and home series.

 

[CatJones]

A. "we're trying to get better games but can't force teams to play us just because we want them to."

B. It looks like somebody in the athletic department thinks padding the overall record is more important than getting the team ready for the Big Ten season.

A. BC B. CC

 

[NJCat]

A weak OOC schedule didn't seem to hurt NU 2 years ago when they started B1G play 3-0 and were ranked for the last time.....

 

[Catreporter]

MSU is the glaring exception. BIG schedules have plenty of easy wins. NU has gone local with some matchups which I think is a good idea. The strength of the noncon schedule will have no bearing on how this season goes. BIG schedule is very formidable.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

MSU is the glaring exception. BIG schedules have plenty of easy wins. NU has gone local with some matchups which I think is a good idea. The strength of the noncon schedule will have no bearing on how this season goes. BIG schedule is very formidable.

To me, one of the big reasons you have to schedule some decent competition is to have useful game film and experience against teams that are equal to or better than you. The coaches have several weeks to analyze their team before conference play begins in earnest . Success against inferior players doesn't help you improve. You learn a lot more from failing than you do from blowing somebody out. This is when most teams figure out their rotation and "coach up" their guys.

 

[Catreporter]

There are virtually no easy wins for this team so they'll learn plenty and you don't need to lose to a bunch of superior opponents to kill their confidence. Georgetown on the road and Pitt and DePaul at home, while not great opponents, will give them a taste of Power6 competition. And the BIG schedule this year is much tougher than last year.

 

[CatJones]

you don't need to lose to a bunch of superior opponents to kill their confidence

False confidence will do more harm than good against superior teams

the BIG schedule this year is much tougher than last year.

True. That is the most likely reason the 2021-2022 team had a better league record than the previous season

 

[combes]

MSU is the glaring exception. BIG schedules have plenty of easy wins. NU has gone local with some matchups which I think is a good idea. The strength of the noncon schedule will have no bearing on how this season goes. BIG schedule is very formidable.

Some of the other Big Ten teams play good schedules, too. Illinois has UCLA, one of Baylor/Virginia, Texas, Syracuse, Missouri along with some easier teams. Possibility of 3 top ten teams.

 

[Catreporter]

Illini still have a half dozen easy wins on their schedule. They are supposed to win the Big Ten so I would hope they'd have a tougher schedule than Northwestern.

 

[Alvious]

I think Northwestern would schedule Hamburger U, the Electoral College and the College of Cardinals if they could.

 

[NJCat]

The Electoral College would be favored by 3.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

It’s Going to be a long year on the court and and even longer year on the BBall board!

 

[GatoLouco]

Personal take: you want to play decent competition a fair amount.

It's not something easy to evaluate from the stands, but when you are on the court you totally feel the difference between mediocre and decent. I am not talking about mediocre and good. Mediocre versus decent. Playing, let's say Providence, is very different from playing Eastern Illinois (to give examples from last season).

The differences between teams are not easily apparent from the stands. But for the players they are. It's all fractions of seconds. Defenders are a fraction faster guarding you coming off a screen. Are a tad stronger when you bump into them. Take you off your cutting lane more easily by extending an arm. And so on, and so on.

If you do not get used to those differences, you go into conference play and you are still on the learning curve of finding the higher skills level normal. Your brain needs to be used to it for the game to seem more normal to you.

You do not want to lose every game. You do not want to be blown out. You do not want to kill confidence. But you definitely want to challenge yourself.