(Warning long post) We obviously have a pretty critically important game against DePaul tomorrow before 2 games we should win comfortably in UIC and Brown, we stubbed our toe against Pitt but otherwise have been pretty good in non-con and another home loss when favored would be a hit to our resume. But as fans, we can look ahead to the conference season which is where the rubber meets the road. What are our expectations for win total there?
We finished 7-13 last year and 6-13 the year prior, going into the year I probably would have said 6.5 wins as my expectation this year given the loss of our bigs. Thus far though (obviously the MSU win helps) we've been a bit better than I expected - I think 8-12 is probably where I'd put the median outcome? I wonder if that is too optimistic though, we drew a pretty tough schedule. It's prob in the 7-8 range still even with the MSU win, our bigs will really be tested in conference play.
Play 2x: Michigan (44), Wisconsin (36), OSU (18), Indiana (16), Iowa (23), Illinois (19- think we get them 2x every year), Rutgers (32)
Play 1x: @MSU (38), @Nebraska (80), Minnesota (174 :/), Purdue (5), @Maryland (26), PSU (33)
The numbers are current KenPom. I think you can divide the conference into tiers: Purdue / the next 10 teams / NU and Neb / Minn. We got lucky to only play Purdue once as they look dominant thus far. But we were unfortunate in only getting Neb and Minn once as everything else in the conference is basically a murderer's row. But the next 4 teams in KP ranks after Purdue we do play twice. Even Wisconsin who looked like a softer opponent at start of the year has been pretty stout. Oh well that's life in the B1G.
In terms of the team thus far (these are wide ranging I don't think I've really posted thus far this year):
- I've been impressed at Robbie's development he has become a bit more well rounded as a player, not just an outside shooter (although the shooting has been more consistent too which is great).
- I'm somewhere in between on the Nicholson and Verhoeven debate - Nicholson has been a pleasant surprise to me, he doesn't have great dexterity around the rim and needs stronger hands on the ball, also needs to screen better, but he moves better than I had initially expected for a guy his size and he likes to dunk it (which he should). He's developing and is a useful player. Verhoeven is a fine backup C - he's never going to score much at all but he moves well, defends well, screens well. Both desperately need to improve their FT shooting otherwise B1G teams will probably hack them increasingly as conference season goes on. For now I would split the minutes about 24 Nicholson / 16 Verhoeven / maybe a couple with small lineup depending on matchup situation - thus far it's been almost exactly 50/50. But I could definitely see circumstances where in late games you might want Nicholson on the bench against a team with 5 quick guys because he would be a liability on defense.
- Chase has indeed improved on shot selection, but still is not great. I don't mind that he goes 1v1 late in the shot clock when we have nothing going, we need someone to do that and he's better than Buie at creating without ball screen action. But he still sometimes forces commits to that and forces early in the clock which is annoying. His defense has been very good - he generally can get away with jumping for steals and over-helping because he's so quick and has long arms (though he still is sometimes too quick to leave his guy IMO). He's definitely improved yoy (some very nice passes too) although he still has moments that make you frustrated.
- On that point, in general we seem to have guys over-helping too much. I know our defense has been very good but when we get beat it's usually because of that. Helping too much (when not necessary) and giving up open 3's on the drive and kick.
- On offense, my frustration comes when we don't run any action or player movement and just let Boo sit there dribbling. While Chase has improved his decision making yoy on offense, Boo seems about the same. That said, we still need him - as Boo goes, so goes the team. When he's hot, he can single-handedly carry us for stretches (thinking of one non-con game against a weaker team where he was seemingly our whole offense).
- Boo is also the most frequent offender of defensive lapses IMO. We need him - but on days where he is missing I don't think Collins should hesitate to put him on the bench for periods of time - lineups with a combination of Chase, Berry, Barnhizer, Roper, Beran, Verhoeven, maybe even Martinelli are very switchable on defense, hard to score against, and at times have created momentum by turning that defense into offense.
- I am seeing development for Barnhizer and Roper too. Brooks seems to do a lot of things right and is a very solid ballhandler - he just needs to make more shots. The form looks solid but I think he's not that confident in it - as he sees some more go in the hoop I'm hoping he will gain that confidence. Roper is a scrappy player, good defender and rebounder - he shows flashes (especially against MSU) of learning how to score but hopefully more to come.
- Berry has really improved on defense IMO, but his shooting has been very hot-and-cold this year. Him only being at 29% from 3 is a problem. Hopefully he can regain his stroke.
Overall I am seeing player development almost across the board, maybe with the exception of Boo. That's a pleasant thing to see. We will see how they all hold up against the meat grinder of the B1G season though. It's going to be tough and seems almost inevitable that we will have a stretch of 4-5 straight losses at some point. I thought at one point that 14-6 might win the conference until Purdue emerged as a clear favorite - still though, I think they will be knocked off at least a few times with 10 other very solid teams and everyone but Minnesota being dangerous on any given night.
We finished 7-13 last year and 6-13 the year prior, going into the year I probably would have said 6.5 wins as my expectation this year given the loss of our bigs. Thus far though (obviously the MSU win helps) we've been a bit better than I expected - I think 8-12 is probably where I'd put the median outcome? I wonder if that is too optimistic though, we drew a pretty tough schedule. It's prob in the 7-8 range still even with the MSU win, our bigs will really be tested in conference play.
Play 2x: Michigan (44), Wisconsin (36), OSU (18), Indiana (16), Iowa (23), Illinois (19- think we get them 2x every year), Rutgers (32)
Play 1x: @MSU (38), @Nebraska (80), Minnesota (174 :/), Purdue (5), @Maryland (26), PSU (33)
The numbers are current KenPom. I think you can divide the conference into tiers: Purdue / the next 10 teams / NU and Neb / Minn. We got lucky to only play Purdue once as they look dominant thus far. But we were unfortunate in only getting Neb and Minn once as everything else in the conference is basically a murderer's row. But the next 4 teams in KP ranks after Purdue we do play twice. Even Wisconsin who looked like a softer opponent at start of the year has been pretty stout. Oh well that's life in the B1G.
In terms of the team thus far (these are wide ranging I don't think I've really posted thus far this year):
- I've been impressed at Robbie's development he has become a bit more well rounded as a player, not just an outside shooter (although the shooting has been more consistent too which is great).
- I'm somewhere in between on the Nicholson and Verhoeven debate - Nicholson has been a pleasant surprise to me, he doesn't have great dexterity around the rim and needs stronger hands on the ball, also needs to screen better, but he moves better than I had initially expected for a guy his size and he likes to dunk it (which he should). He's developing and is a useful player. Verhoeven is a fine backup C - he's never going to score much at all but he moves well, defends well, screens well. Both desperately need to improve their FT shooting otherwise B1G teams will probably hack them increasingly as conference season goes on. For now I would split the minutes about 24 Nicholson / 16 Verhoeven / maybe a couple with small lineup depending on matchup situation - thus far it's been almost exactly 50/50. But I could definitely see circumstances where in late games you might want Nicholson on the bench against a team with 5 quick guys because he would be a liability on defense.
- Chase has indeed improved on shot selection, but still is not great. I don't mind that he goes 1v1 late in the shot clock when we have nothing going, we need someone to do that and he's better than Buie at creating without ball screen action. But he still sometimes forces commits to that and forces early in the clock which is annoying. His defense has been very good - he generally can get away with jumping for steals and over-helping because he's so quick and has long arms (though he still is sometimes too quick to leave his guy IMO). He's definitely improved yoy (some very nice passes too) although he still has moments that make you frustrated.
- On that point, in general we seem to have guys over-helping too much. I know our defense has been very good but when we get beat it's usually because of that. Helping too much (when not necessary) and giving up open 3's on the drive and kick.
- On offense, my frustration comes when we don't run any action or player movement and just let Boo sit there dribbling. While Chase has improved his decision making yoy on offense, Boo seems about the same. That said, we still need him - as Boo goes, so goes the team. When he's hot, he can single-handedly carry us for stretches (thinking of one non-con game against a weaker team where he was seemingly our whole offense).
- Boo is also the most frequent offender of defensive lapses IMO. We need him - but on days where he is missing I don't think Collins should hesitate to put him on the bench for periods of time - lineups with a combination of Chase, Berry, Barnhizer, Roper, Beran, Verhoeven, maybe even Martinelli are very switchable on defense, hard to score against, and at times have created momentum by turning that defense into offense.
- I am seeing development for Barnhizer and Roper too. Brooks seems to do a lot of things right and is a very solid ballhandler - he just needs to make more shots. The form looks solid but I think he's not that confident in it - as he sees some more go in the hoop I'm hoping he will gain that confidence. Roper is a scrappy player, good defender and rebounder - he shows flashes (especially against MSU) of learning how to score but hopefully more to come.
- Berry has really improved on defense IMO, but his shooting has been very hot-and-cold this year. Him only being at 29% from 3 is a problem. Hopefully he can regain his stroke.
Overall I am seeing player development almost across the board, maybe with the exception of Boo. That's a pleasant thing to see. We will see how they all hold up against the meat grinder of the B1G season though. It's going to be tough and seems almost inevitable that we will have a stretch of 4-5 straight losses at some point. I thought at one point that 14-6 might win the conference until Purdue emerged as a clear favorite - still though, I think they will be knocked off at least a few times with 10 other very solid teams and everyone but Minnesota being dangerous on any given night.
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