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Separation Saturday

SmellyCat

SmellyCat

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May 29, 2001
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This Saturday is setting up to be the biggest day in the Big Ten regular season. Schedule (all times Central):

Illinois (12-5) at Wisconsin (10-7) 12:00
Penn State (8-10) at Minnesota (8-9) 2:15
Iowa (9-9) at Northwestern (11-6) 4:30
Michigan State (9-8) at Purdue (14-3) 7:00
Nebraska (10-7) plays tonight and Sunday, but they'll be watching results eagerly.


Wisconsin is on fumes right now, but they have a big opportunity at home to help themselves - and NU. Purdue can clinch first place with a win and Illinois loss, and at the same time, they can put a dagger in Michigan State's hopes of getting a double-bye. PSU at Minnesota may seem like an outlier, but Minnesota still has very slim NCAA hopes (and is the "home" team in the BTT) and can't afford to lose that one.

Meanwhile, NU has to keep the pedal down. It's a home game. McKinney is getting honored. It's freaking Iowa. Northwestern could be in second place at the end of the night (they currently have the tiebreaker over Illinois). There is a lot at stake. Hopefully Langborg's DNP last night was strategic (risky, but strategic) more than worrisome and he will be dropping bombs on the Hawkeyes.
 
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God, I hope we beat Iowa. I don't know why exactly, but this is the team I think I dislike the most in the BIG. They are playing much better lately and have a lot of size that might give Nick and Brooks some problems.
 
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SmellyCat said:
This Saturday is setting up to be the biggest day in the Big Ten regular season. Schedule (all times Central):

Illinois (12-5) at Wisconsin (10-7) 12:00
Penn State (8-10) at Minnesota (8-9) 2:15
Iowa (9-9) at Northwestern (11-6) 4:30
Michigan State (9-8) at Purdue (14-3) 7:00
Nebraska (10-7) plays tonight and Sunday, but they'll be watching results eagerly.


Wisconsin is on fumes right now, but they have a big opportunity at home to help themselves - and NU. Purdue can clinch first place with a win and Illinois loss, and at the same time, they can put a dagger in Michigan State's hopes of getting a double-bye. PSU at Minnesota may seem like an outlier, but Minnesota still has very slim NCAA hopes (and is the "home" team in the BTT) and can't afford to lose that one.

Meanwhile, NU has to keep the pedal down. It's a home game. McKinney is getting honored. It's freaking Iowa. Northwestern could be in second place at the end of the night (they currently have the tiebreaker over Illinois). There is a lot at stake. Hopefully Langborg's DNP last night was strategic (risky, but strategic) more than worrisome and he will be dropping bombs on the Hawkeyes.
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From what I’ve heard, they’re optimistic about Borg being back for Iowa. Holding him out last night looking like a genius move in retrospect.

On Saturday, are we saying Go Illini (ew), go Nittany Lions, and go Boilers? And GO CATS obviously.
 
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NJcatsfan said:
From what I’ve heard, they’re optimistic about Borg being back for Iowa. Holding him out last night looking like a genius move in retrospect.

On Saturday, are we saying Go Illini (ew), go Nittany Lions, and go Boilers? And GO CATS obviously.
Click to expand...
Go Boilers for sure (as much as that may pain my Spartan son who thought this season was going to go very differently back in October). Go Nittany Lions too as we want a defeated Minny team coming into Welsh Ryan with nothing to play for. As for Illinois/Wisconsin, it depends how greedy we are feeling. Another loss for Wisconsin really boosts are chances at getting the double bye for the BTT. However, if we take care of our business, we are in a good spot for 2nd place in the BIG for the second year in a row! An Illinois loss this weekend would be wonderful in that regard.
 
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That win at Maryland might be the most pivotal one this season for us.

Getting Wisconsin to 8 losses before their finale at Purdue is big for us.

Getting MSU to 9 losses also very helpful.

I don't think Nebby will not lose another regular season game, as their schedule is forgiving. If they are going to lose, it will at OSU tonight.

So 4th place is quite possible. Probably need to win out to get third.
 
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I think you have to root for Wisconsin. They're a game behind NU and have one expected loss left (at Purdue), so it'll be tough (though far from impossible) for them to catch NU. They do have the tiebreaker over NU based on head-to-head, but that becomes less important if NU is in a three-way tie with them.

Meanwhile, Illinois finishes with three very tough games, including the Wisconsin one. NU, with the tiebreaker over Illinois due to its victory over Purdue, can catch them for second. If Illinois beats Purdue, NU loses that tiebreaker, but then again, NU might not be able to catch the Illini anyway if they beat Purdue AND Illinois, even if they lose at Iowa on the last day.

A Wisconsin win Saturday, coupled with NU over Iowa, opens up all kinds of possibilities for NU.
 
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For me, go Cats and go Illinois and let the rest fall where it will. As long as Wisconsin doesn’t start upsetting the top teams all of a sudden, and at Purdue will be nearly impossible, and the Cats take care of business at home, we’ve got third or fourth place sealed up. Beat Iowa and have the pumpkin heads kick sconnie for us.

Nebraska losing tonight would be neato, but after the Maryland win we can just do this damn thing ourselves. Let’s go undefeated at home!
 
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Really need Langborg back for Iowa. That game will not be in the 60s. Iowa will not shoot 2 for 22 or whatever from 3. We need as many shooters as we can get against Iowa.

And I will second (or third) everyone who is saying "Go Buckeyes" tonight. But only tonight. After that, and for all time, F those guys.
 
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I realize Minnesota lost last night, but they were scary good at Illinois when you look at the numbers. They gave it everything they had.
 
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EagerFan said:
I realize Minnesota lost last night, but they were scary good at Illinois when you look at the numbers. They gave it everything they had.
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They will be a team that could make a deep run at the BTT given their athleticism, home court and motivation (likely needing a few BTT wins to get into the tourney).
 
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SmellyCat said:
I think you have to root for Wisconsin. They're a game behind NU and have one expected loss left (at Purdue), so it'll be tough (though far from impossible) for them to catch NU. They do have the tiebreaker over NU based on head-to-head, but that becomes less important if NU is in a three-way tie with them.

Meanwhile, Illinois finishes with three very tough games, including the Wisconsin one. NU, with the tiebreaker over Illinois due to its victory over Purdue, can catch them for second. If Illinois beats Purdue, NU loses that tiebreaker, but then again, NU might not be able to catch the Illini anyway if they beat Purdue AND Illinois, even if they lose at Iowa on the last day.

A Wisconsin win Saturday, coupled with NU over Iowa, opens up all kinds of possibilities for NU.
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I really want Wisconsin at 9 losses. I will be rooting for Illinois on Saturday. There is a reasonable chance that Nebby finishes at 13-7.
 
SmellyCat said:
This Saturday is setting up to be the biggest day in the Big Ten regular season. Schedule (all times Central):

Illinois (12-5) at Wisconsin (10-7) 12:00
Penn State (8-10) at Minnesota (8-9) 2:15
Iowa (9-9) at Northwestern (11-6) 4:30
Michigan State (9-8) at Purdue (14-3) 7:00
Nebraska (10-7) plays tonight and Sunday, but they'll be watching results eagerly.


Wisconsin is on fumes right now, but they have a big opportunity at home to help themselves - and NU. Purdue can clinch first place with a win and Illinois loss, and at the same time, they can put a dagger in Michigan State's hopes of getting a double-bye. PSU at Minnesota may seem like an outlier, but Minnesota still has very slim NCAA hopes (and is the "home" team in the BTT) and can't afford to lose that one.

Meanwhile, NU has to keep the pedal down. It's a home game. McKinney is getting honored. It's freaking Iowa. Northwestern could be in second place at the end of the night (they currently have the tiebreaker over Illinois). There is a lot at stake. Hopefully Langborg's DNP last night was strategic (risky, but strategic) more than worrisome and he will be dropping bombs on the Hawkeyes.
Click to expand...
Why do we have the tiebreaker over IL? We split with them right?
 
Baz=Heisman said:
They will be a team that could make a deep run at the BTT given their athleticism, home court and motivation (likely needing a few BTT wins to get into the tourney).
Click to expand...
Every rotation guy on their team can return next year. Assuming Edey finally leaves, they could contend for a title.
 
hdhntr1 said:
Why do we have the tiebreaker over IL? We split with them right?
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If I understand right, we have a better record against the #1 team (Purdue) than they do. If they beat Purdue next month, we lose that tiebreaker, but if that happens, we probably won't tie them anyway.
 
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GrandRapidsCatFan said:
I'm not sure which Fran is more annoying to listen to, Drescher or McCaffery
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lApyFOU.gif
 
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Double bye here we come! A serious run in the BTT is something we've missed out on during the Collins era. Even the First Dance year we got smoked so bad in the semis it never felt like a serious run. I feel like this year will be special.
 
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Hungry Jack said:
Nebby going down in Columbus!

Battle with 32 and some favorable calls late = stars aligning for the Cats!
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Puts us up two in the loss column over Nebby and they have two to play, Win two more and they are behind us regardless of what they do.
 
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ThatkidfromHolland said:
Here’s an interesting website that helps paint the picture of how different games need to fall for NU to be seeded well.

www.playoffstatus.com

Northwestern Wildcats Basketball Most Important Games

The Most Important Games are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Wildcats final standings.
www.playoffstatus.com www.playoffstatus.com
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Oh, I'm going to enjoy this. Thanks for sharing.

Among other things, I saw this on this site:

Spot #4 - First and Second Round Byes​

Case 1
Northwestern beats Iowa, and
Michigan St. loses to Purdue, and
Nebraska loses to Rutgers

In other words, the double-bye could be clinched as early as this Sunday.
 
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SmellyCat said:
Oh, I'm going to enjoy this. Thanks for sharing.

Among other things, I saw this on this site:

Spot #4 - First and Second Round Byes​

Case 1
Northwestern beats Iowa, and
Michigan St. loses to Purdue, and
Nebraska loses to Rutgers

In other words, the double-bye could be clinched as early as this Sunday.
Click to expand...
Also as simple as NU wins any one more game and neither Wisconsin or Michigan state upset Purdue in West-Laffeyette nor Wisconsin upset Illinois.

Or: NU wins any two more games.
 
Sure, but I'm talking about having it wrapped up this weekend. Obviously I want NU to win even more games, but we could know by this Sunday night that NU isn't playing until Friday of the BTT. I didn't think they could clinch that so soon.
 
IL @ WIPSU @ MNIA @ NUMSU @ PURU @ NEB% double byelikelihood of scenario
ILPSUIAMSURU81%0.20%
ILPSUIAMSUNEB74%0.79%
ILPSUIAPURU85%0.84%
ILPSUIAPUNEB75%3.37%
ILPSUNUMSURU100%0.37%
ILPSUNUMSUNEB98%1.47%
ILPSUNUPURU100%1.57%
ILPSUNUPUNEB98%6.27%
ILMNIAMSURU80%0.44%
ILMNIAMSUNEB73%1.76%
ILMNIAPURU81%1.88%
ILMNIAPUNEB74%7.51%
ILMNNUMSURU100%0.82%
ILMNNUMSUNEB98%3.27%
ILMNNUPURU100%3.49%
ILMNNUPUNEB98%13.95%
WIPSUIAMSURU75%0.21%
WIPSUIAMSUNEB46%0.86%
WIPSUIAPURU84%0.91%
WIPSUIAPUNEB48%3.66%
WIPSUNUMSURU98%0.40%
WIPSUNUMSUNEB88%1.59%
WIPSUNUPURU100%1.70%
WIPSUNUPUNEB89%6.79%
WIMNIAMSURU75%0.48%
WIMNIAMSUNEB46%1.91%
WIMNIAPURU80%2.03%
WIMNIAPUNEB48%8.14%
WIMNNUMSURU98%0.89%
WIMNNUMSUNEB88%3.55%
WIMNNUPURU100%3.78%
WIMNNUPUNEB89%15.11%

So basically, we are looking at an 11.7% chance of clinching by the end of Sunday night, plus an additional 26.3% of clinching in all circumstances other than we are tied for 4th with MSU and they beat Purdue this weekend. The first game of the weekend will let us know if there is the potential for danger or if we should feel comfortable. There's a 14.6% chance we get into danger with Wisconsin, Iowa, MSU and Nebraska all winning. But, the top 6 most likely scenarios give us clinching percentages of 89, 98, 48, 74, 89 and 98.
 
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Other than just pure greed (I want #2 two years in a row, and failing that, I want #1!), I guess all that really matters is the double-bye. Getting the three seed or the two seed makes no difference really, as the Friday opponents could really be any number of teams at this point so there isn't one matchup we'd prefer over another and presumably a 2/3 game would be NU vs. Illinois regardless of who gets to wear the white uniforms.

And of course if NU lands at #4, they'd have a potential Saturday matchup against Purdue, which would be fun. I'd expect them to play better against Purdue on Saturday than on Sunday, as their thin bench would probably be a bigger factor than it would be for Purdue. Obviously you need to get the double-bye first AND the Friday win second before entertaining such thoughts.
 
NU @ MSUIU @ MNRU @ WI% double byelikelihood of scenario
NUIURU100%1.62%
NUIUWI96%6.50%
NUMNRU100%3.98%
NUMNWI96%15.90%
MSUIURU84%4.18%
MSUIUWI60%16.70%
MSUMNRU68%10.22%
MSUMNWI60%40.90%

We've avoided the true danger scenario through this weekend, though Nicholson being dunzo hurts the cause a lot. Purdue/Illinois is meaningless for us. If we beat MSU, we've essentially clinched it. Otherwise, root for Rutgers and IU during the midweek games.

13-7 - 100% double bye, 2 or 3 seed
12-8 - 91% double bye, 3 - 5 seed
11-9 - 3% double bye, 3 - 8 seed

72% chance overall. Just need to win one more.
 
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