It really is my pleasure; this is a very interesting topic.
So the NCAA estimates 1.6 of every 100 college football players go pro. But there's a hidden denominator. What percentage of all players entered college with the
realistic goal of going pro?
I mean, a lot (a LOT) of college football players come into a team knowing that they don't have a realistic chance beyond college, they just feel blessed to be included at the college level. So what are the subset of college players who
did expect to make the pros?
I don't know what that denominator is. My guess would be, somewhere between 10% and 25%. But it could be larger. I'd be willing to bet money that it's well less than half. For the purpose of this argument, let's say it would fall in a range between 10% and 40%. In other words,
most college football players are in college to either (1) get a free education while playing the game they love, or (2) working their way through college, their work being the game of football (which they may no longer love, but do anyway, for the scholarship). In short, most are there for the education, it's just football that opened the door for them (financially or academically or both). Back to the central point, though, which is this:
1.6 in 100 is a very low percentage. It's nothing close to being as bad as betting your future on the lottery, but it's still a bad bet. And that's the number you think you're seeing at first blush when the NCAA says "only 1.6% of college players make the pros." But that's not the real issue, if most of them never planned to go pro anyway. So look at the smaller, more realistic, denominators: 1.6 in 10 (16%) is a fair, if unlikely, shake at a huge payoff. 1.6 in 25 (between 6% and 7%) is not
too bad, given the size of the winnings if you make it. 1.6 in 40 (4%) kinda sucks, even for the big $$ payout.
Another angle: divide the football players into three groups:
- 1.6% win the lottery. It was certainly "all worth it" for them.
- Somewhere between 60% and 90% get the education they were after, working hard for it. It was worth it to them, just as for many other young folks who work their way through college.
- The remaining 8.4% to 38.4% gambled and lost. Did they get the consolation prize of a college degree in the process? That's largely up to them. Some didn't bother, for sure.
Fact is, most of the worry is for the ones who took the gamble and lost. So maybe they might have gambled smarter.
Just saying.
It's a complicated issue, and deserves a bigger response than just that. But that is an element of it.
Thanks again, JournCat, for the ongoing discussion.
p.s. Didn't get to read TheC's response until I'd finished writing mine. But he brings up a great point. You gotta bring 1.6% up to, what? 2.5%? 4%? If you include a (desired, alternate, whatever) career in media or other fields opened up to you purely based on the fame and contacts you made while playing. It's another good point to consider.