so we have hired Chris Collins and paid him handsomely. He appears to have won some recruiting battles but the product on the court is abysmal. Last year at the end of the year we saw progress but this year we have regressed. Is this just a matter of our core players being too young or a misjudgment of talent. The last 3 games and the PSU games were just atrocious basketball
So when will we be competitive in the btn
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We're playing poorly but we have just played a very tough stretch of the season. I was more more concerned about how we played against OSU and PSU. Our non-conference schedule did little to prepare us for conference play, but maybe Collins knew when he put it together that we weren't going anywhere this year anyway. I'd like to hope that wasn't the case.
It's a matter of our core players being too young and one being too injured (Law).
Need to see progress, but he really needs another three or four years (and since he's here I'd give him 10). We could have gone 0 for the Big Ten this year if all the games were close, IMO. Eliminating the blowouts is way up on my list of signs of progress. So, that's disappointing.
He gets the same grace that guys like Carmody, Foster and Falk got. And my money is for Collins to have more success at NU than any of them.
Need to see progress, but he really needs another three or four years (and since he's here I'd give him 10). We could have gone 0 for the Big Ten this year if all the games were close, IMO. Eliminating the blowouts is way up on my list of signs of progress. So, that's disappointing.
He gets the same grace that guys like Carmody, Foster and Falk got. And my money is for Collins to have more success at NU than any of them.
Any suggestion that Collins should be looking over his shoulder at this point is ridiculous.
So, too, given our history, is any expectation that we'll go through a season without an injury to a key player. The loss of Law this year hurts a lot. We just have to develop the depth to the point that we can overcome it, and we're clearly not there yet. Maybe we'll be there next year, but the odds are that will be tested yet again.
I've seen incremental progress from year to year, though with fits and starts and wobbles. I'm thinking that we'll make a bigger leap forward next year than we've seen for a while.
So, too, given our history, is any expectation that we'll go through a season without an injury to a key player. The loss of Law this year hurts a lot. We just have to develop the depth to the point that we can overcome it, and we're clearly not there yet. Maybe we'll be there next year, but the odds are that will be tested yet again.
I've seen incremental progress from year to year, though with fits and starts and wobbles. I'm thinking that we'll make a bigger leap forward next year than we've seen for a while.
This year was *always* about making the NIT, and the four-game stretch we just completed was always going to be the toughest part of the year. I still believe in the Collins plan. Getting to the NCAA was always going to be a step-by-step process. Unfortunately, not getting the Maryland win may end up being the difference between the NIT and the CBI. The Law injury and the tough years Demps and Olah are having don't help.
But I see the same incremental process as other posters here, and I think we're going to have some great practices this off-season with a healthy Law, an improving Falzon, and the addition of three strong recruits.
But I see the same incremental process as other posters here, and I think we're going to have some great practices this off-season with a healthy Law, an improving Falzon, and the addition of three strong recruits.
This is Northwestern. The fact that some of us thought the NCAAs were even a possibility a month ago is progress.
You can throw out the last 4 games. Going into the Big 10 schedule, everyone would have pencilled NU in for 4 losses in these games. NU should have been 4-6, instead they are 3-7 with a bad home loss to PSU.
The season starts with Minny which is a must-win game for NU. Home game, a comparable opponent, Collins must have his kids ready to play. Lose that game and NU will have a hard time matching the 6 Big 10 wins of previous seasons.
When you have three starters not making a basket, you will have problems in the Big 10.
The hope is that next year, you will have a nucleus of 1. McIntosh, 2. Law, 3. Falzon, 4. Pardon and three freshmen who (fingers crossed) have skills to put the ball in the basket in Rapolas, Bensen and Brown. Then if we can have one or two of the following five (Lindsey, Skelly, Taphorn, Lumpkin and Ash) develop and mature, you might have something. That will be three four-star players - in Law, Falzon, Rapolas, 2 high three-star players in McIntosh and Benson, Big Potential player in Pardon and veteran juniors and seniors who have been through the Big 10 wars in Lumpkin, Tap and Skelly. That leaves Lindsey and Ash as important variables and hopefully, they develop and mature at the SG position.
You also have to consider that some teams will be seriously affected by seniors using up eligibility and early defections. No I know that some of these teams can easily rebuild with great recruiting classes, but the players who are leaving consist of the first team all-Big 10 team and key players on the top 5 -6 Big 10 teams (Uthoff, Ferrell, Hammons, Valentine and Trimble) -
Iowa - Uthoff, Gessell, Woodberry, Clemens;
Purdue - Hammons, Swanigan;
Indiana - Ferrell, Williams and Bryant;
MSU - Valentine, Forbes, Costello;
Maryland - Trimble, Stone, Sulaimon, Layman and Carter (the entire starting five) and
UM - Lavert (yes, I know he is injured, but he is talented)
fingers crossed ... and our team stays healthy.
The hope is that next year, you will have a nucleus of 1. McIntosh, 2. Law, 3. Falzon, 4. Pardon and three freshmen who (fingers crossed) have skills to put the ball in the basket in Rapolas, Bensen and Brown. Then if we can have one or two of the following five (Lindsey, Skelly, Taphorn, Lumpkin and Ash) develop and mature, you might have something. That will be three four-star players - in Law, Falzon, Rapolas, 2 high three-star players in McIntosh and Benson, Big Potential player in Pardon and veteran juniors and seniors who have been through the Big 10 wars in Lumpkin, Tap and Skelly. That leaves Lindsey and Ash as important variables and hopefully, they develop and mature at the SG position.
You also have to consider that some teams will be seriously affected by seniors using up eligibility and early defections. No I know that some of these teams can easily rebuild with great recruiting classes, but the players who are leaving consist of the first team all-Big 10 team and key players on the top 5 -6 Big 10 teams (Uthoff, Ferrell, Hammons, Valentine and Trimble) -
Iowa - Uthoff, Gessell, Woodberry, Clemens;
Purdue - Hammons, Swanigan;
Indiana - Ferrell, Williams and Bryant;
MSU - Valentine, Forbes, Costello;
Maryland - Trimble, Stone, Sulaimon, Layman and Carter (the entire starting five) and
UM - Lavert (yes, I know he is injured, but he is talented)
fingers crossed ... and our team stays healthy.
That extra schlorship sitting in the classroom at NU might come in very handy for nest seasons depth.
"So when will be competitive in the btn"
Seems like we are doing well with Revsine in the big chair. Used to be "stronger" when Doyle was around.
Seems like we are doing well with Revsine in the big chair. Used to be "stronger" when Doyle was around.
Don't forget the one and only Shon Morris. Of course, the loss of Chris Martin on the football side of the ball hurt as well!
Not sure when we'll be competitive again.
1) Olah and Demps are not stars but they are pretty good b10 players who are being completely misused on offense. Taphorn is average at best but, how many 6'8, 230 pounders shoot 50% from 3 as sophomores? Misused on offense. There are shooting guards who are nba all stars who never broke 40% as seniors. We have a power forward who shot 50! And cc can't find a way to utilize that?
2). Falzon, so far, is example 1-a why you don't offer a guy because someone gave him 4 stars. He's completely invisible on both ends.
3). Mac is pretty good. Limited skill set, but would be a very good facilitator with a little help.
4). Not that cc could have predicted the B10 would be the 7th best conference in the country this year, but when he devised that ooc schedule on top of that, this was a no win season from early on.
5). I guess if he can keep landing a 4 star in each class we could become competitive again in a couple years, but that seems like the only way. Pardon has to be the real deal starting next year or were looking at another 6-13 b10 again. Big experience holes next year without olag, demps, jvz, and anyone else who transfers out.
6). I was unimpressed by Vic law last year, and not really sure if him redshirting might have been a good thing in the long run.
7). 3 years of great recruiting classes might equate to 3 years of zero postseason. I think cc will have a really hard time recruiting after that. So if we strikeout this year again (not counting the pay-to-play tournaments like cbi etc), it might be pretty ugly if cc is fielding a team of 3 and 2 star guys in a couple of years since he has underachieved to this extent for the first three.
On the flip side-talent can do wonders for marginal coaches (see crean, Tom).
So there are many different ways to get there.
I won't even get into it, but our entire defensive scheme is just awful too. If the ooc wasn't so pathetic, and big 10 wasn't having a historically down year, this season would be really ugly in a win loss perspective.
1) Olah and Demps are not stars but they are pretty good b10 players who are being completely misused on offense. Taphorn is average at best but, how many 6'8, 230 pounders shoot 50% from 3 as sophomores? Misused on offense. There are shooting guards who are nba all stars who never broke 40% as seniors. We have a power forward who shot 50! And cc can't find a way to utilize that?
2). Falzon, so far, is example 1-a why you don't offer a guy because someone gave him 4 stars. He's completely invisible on both ends.
3). Mac is pretty good. Limited skill set, but would be a very good facilitator with a little help.
4). Not that cc could have predicted the B10 would be the 7th best conference in the country this year, but when he devised that ooc schedule on top of that, this was a no win season from early on.
5). I guess if he can keep landing a 4 star in each class we could become competitive again in a couple years, but that seems like the only way. Pardon has to be the real deal starting next year or were looking at another 6-13 b10 again. Big experience holes next year without olag, demps, jvz, and anyone else who transfers out.
6). I was unimpressed by Vic law last year, and not really sure if him redshirting might have been a good thing in the long run.
7). 3 years of great recruiting classes might equate to 3 years of zero postseason. I think cc will have a really hard time recruiting after that. So if we strikeout this year again (not counting the pay-to-play tournaments like cbi etc), it might be pretty ugly if cc is fielding a team of 3 and 2 star guys in a couple of years since he has underachieved to this extent for the first three.
On the flip side-talent can do wonders for marginal coaches (see crean, Tom).
So there are many different ways to get there.
I won't even get into it, but our entire defensive scheme is just awful too. If the ooc wasn't so pathetic, and big 10 wasn't having a historically down year, this season would be really ugly in a win loss perspective.
I think Mystic is a a little too gloomy. But watching Falzon fade into the frosh wall and Mac being run into it, I think about next year. I don't think any of our freshman can be expected to start, play long and contribute deep into a season. So I'm discounting them.
Mac, Lindsey, Law, Falzon and Pardon make a competitive 5 IF: Law plays like second half Law, Lindsey plays like last night, Falzon improves with a year and Brown can spell Mac. I think missing on more than one of those spells doom.
I also think if Benson can unseat Skelly as first big in, then it says great things. If RI can unseat Lumphorn, then another awesome factor. But if RI sits the season in favor of Lumphorn - I can live with that. Ash is my pot shot. If he sees the floor it is because either he earned it or Lindsey or Law dropped it. Hard to imagine the former in a limited body of work, but fear the latter.
NU goes dancing if zero frosh start, zero starters suffer season ending injuries and 2 of Lindsey, Law and Falzon average 10+ ppg, IMHO.
Mac, Lindsey, Law, Falzon and Pardon make a competitive 5 IF: Law plays like second half Law, Lindsey plays like last night, Falzon improves with a year and Brown can spell Mac. I think missing on more than one of those spells doom.
I also think if Benson can unseat Skelly as first big in, then it says great things. If RI can unseat Lumphorn, then another awesome factor. But if RI sits the season in favor of Lumphorn - I can live with that. Ash is my pot shot. If he sees the floor it is because either he earned it or Lindsey or Law dropped it. Hard to imagine the former in a limited body of work, but fear the latter.
NU goes dancing if zero frosh start, zero starters suffer season ending injuries and 2 of Lindsey, Law and Falzon average 10+ ppg, IMHO.
Boy, you have really taken a class-half-empty view. First as to the Big 10 being "down", two of the top 4 teams in the country sit at the top of the conference, and 5 are in the top 25, so I don't see how "down" the league is. The only horrible team is Rutgers (who are injury riddled). Teams 6-10 are competitve every night. Don't believe the hype you get from the press on which conference is up and which is down.
To your points:
1) Taphorn is totally 1-dimensional. Yes, he can hit the occasional 3, but is a statue on both offense and defense and isn't a fit for the Collins offense. Olah has been hurt all of Big 10 play, he showed improvement against the better OOC teams and his absence hurts the entire team.
2) Falzon has not been invisible. Like many true freshmen he has good games and bad, but on average he is doing well. He's averaging 9 points and 3.5 rebounds. Drew Crawford averaged 10 and 4 on a much better team as a true freshman.
3) Agree here.
4) Not sure what the OOC schedule has to do with being competitive in the Big 10. If playing good teams translates to wins, then NU should have a hell of a second half of the Big 10 season having just played 4 consecutive ranked opponents!
5) NU has 2 4*s coming next year, and will then have 4 on the roster for 2016-17. It all comes down to players, and the talent upgrade continues. There should be real improvement given that 10 of the 12 scholarship players will be Collins recruits. I wouldn't be surprised if Taphorn departs due to chronic foot problems either.
6) You must have stopped watching Law halfway through the season. He finished strong and was one of the best 3 point shooters at the end of the year. Hard to tell much about a true Freshman.
7) The main selling point for Collins is the chance to make history. As long as the team gets better, and there is Big 10 caliber talent on the floor, he will get players. There are enough 4* guys out there who want to play int he Big 10 and get a degree from a great school that he won't be back to a roster of 2 and 3* guys!
Finally, I agree with you about talent. Someone else posted that talent accounts for 70% of success, and I agree with that. Carmody could probably do x's and o's with the best of them, but the lack of talent due to his disinterest in recruiting doomed him. If Collins continues to recruit at the level of the 2015 and 2016 classes, I see NU competitive in the Big 10 in 2017-18.
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We are still in transition from the BC era and simply do not have any depth. Tap, Olah, Demps, Lumpkin are our upper classmen but were never recruited for man to man defense or anything other than a Princeton offense. They are good guys but absolutely lost out there. Those are 3 of our starters. Collins only has 2 recruiting classes on the bench, and his best recruit is out for the year. At any rate, I think we can all agree that Law, Falzon, Pardon, BMC are a super nucleus that gives us more hope than we have ever had of NCAA's. That's only 2 recruiting classes, and his highest rated recruit yet, Rap, has yet to hit the floor.
How should Olah, Demps and Taphorn have been used differently on offense? Which of their wide-ranging skills are not being used effectively?
1) To be fair, NU has never had any depth. The prospect of such a thing has me excited for the future.
2) Tap, Olah, Demps, and Lumpkin aren't "lost out there". They all have a limited ceilings (some more than others), but then again, the same can be said for much of Division 1 basketball. BMac has limits. So did Aaron Craft. Take Demps for example.
Tre is a pretty athletic, high volume scorer that can be a liability on the defensive end. Always has been, always will be. Just because his shot isn't falling this year (hopefully that is in the rear view mirror) doesn't mean he's "lost". When Tre is on, you can't tell me there is a team in BIG who wouldn't want him on the floor during the last 5 mins of a game.
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You also have to look at how collins is developing the talent. Olah improved immensely under collins. Bmac last year to this year much better. Lumpkin can score sometimes (still a liability but improved) Demps similar to lumpkin with defense and he is passing better right now then I have seen him pass. Also with better talent coming in who knows how high the ceiling could be. They are rebounding so much better then previous years and that is huge! The defense also looks much better since collins took over. We just have to wait for the shots to start falling Northwestern Basketball looks very bright for the future. Especially with Bmac Law Falzon and Pardon and all the unforeseen additions ahead.
NJ Cat and Turk did a great job refuting Mystic's off base post but I want to chime in also:
1. Demps is a pretty good Big 10 player but on defense his skills are limited. Notice how many uncontested threes occur on his side on the zone. Olah is a pretty good player if you overlook his inability to guard centers away from the hoop or his inability to finish around the rim or his inability to develop a signature move on the block whether it is a hook shot or a bank shot even though he is bigger than 90 percent of opposing centers. He does well in non-conference when he is guarding guys 3-5 inches smaller than him but against big 10 opponents his play is inconsistent at best. There is he occasional outlier against Bryant of IU;
2. Comments on Falzon are way off base. Yes, he has struggled shooting against some teams, but the reason we beat DePaul in OT, cruise by Minny on the road, hang with Maryland in College Park and his threes at UNL in the first half opened up the middle so that Pardon could have his breakout game. He has shown a toughness and willing to dive on the floor on defense which is a good trait. So way off base on that one;
3. McIntosh is an excellent player and singlehandedly beat UW with 30 points. Teams have designed their game plans to keep the ball out of his hands and make it difficult for him to drive. He does not have a limited skill set and has improved on the defensive end. Totally off base comment. Best first two seasons at PG at NU than anyone I have seen including an all-time NU player and asst. coach Pat Baldwin;
4. Big 10 as the 7th best conference: are you kidding me? ACC, Big 12 and maybe Pac-12. But you are putting SEC, Big East, and A10 or maybe AAC over the Big 10. Lost all credibility there;
5. Unimpressed by Vic Law. I guess you missed NU's second half of the Big 10 seasons and key wins over IU, Iowa, at Minny, UM and his defensive play in the first half. Missed the fact that he is as an explosive athlete at NU for the past five years. Oh well. I guess you can't sway people with an agenda.
1. Demps is a pretty good Big 10 player but on defense his skills are limited. Notice how many uncontested threes occur on his side on the zone. Olah is a pretty good player if you overlook his inability to guard centers away from the hoop or his inability to finish around the rim or his inability to develop a signature move on the block whether it is a hook shot or a bank shot even though he is bigger than 90 percent of opposing centers. He does well in non-conference when he is guarding guys 3-5 inches smaller than him but against big 10 opponents his play is inconsistent at best. There is he occasional outlier against Bryant of IU;
2. Comments on Falzon are way off base. Yes, he has struggled shooting against some teams, but the reason we beat DePaul in OT, cruise by Minny on the road, hang with Maryland in College Park and his threes at UNL in the first half opened up the middle so that Pardon could have his breakout game. He has shown a toughness and willing to dive on the floor on defense which is a good trait. So way off base on that one;
3. McIntosh is an excellent player and singlehandedly beat UW with 30 points. Teams have designed their game plans to keep the ball out of his hands and make it difficult for him to drive. He does not have a limited skill set and has improved on the defensive end. Totally off base comment. Best first two seasons at PG at NU than anyone I have seen including an all-time NU player and asst. coach Pat Baldwin;
4. Big 10 as the 7th best conference: are you kidding me? ACC, Big 12 and maybe Pac-12. But you are putting SEC, Big East, and A10 or maybe AAC over the Big 10. Lost all credibility there;
5. Unimpressed by Vic Law. I guess you missed NU's second half of the Big 10 seasons and key wins over IU, Iowa, at Minny, UM and his defensive play in the first half. Missed the fact that he is as an explosive athlete at NU for the past five years. Oh well. I guess you can't sway people with an agenda.
Great job. One minor point: the ACC is not better than the Big 10 this season. If any conference is having a down season it is the ACC. UNC is excellent. Louisville is also top 10 caliber. But UVA and ND are worse than MSU and PU, the Big 10's 3rd and 4th teams, and after that the ACC is worse at every slot. Clemson, Miami, Pitt and Duke? Meh. Syracuse and FSU have 15 losses between them. Heck NU beat #11 Va Tech in Blacksburg. This is NOT a great year for them.
I'm sorry you don't have a more concrete solution to your original dilemma, Mystic. But from the conviction of your #1, it's pretty obvious you know where a strong part of the problems reside on the court.
I'd agree with Mystic that the Cats have a number of one-dimensional, veteran players who haven't performed their single talent to par, much less exceptionally. However, I don't see the stifled, untapped potential.
To answer the original question, a strong part of the final equation is a regular rotation that includes most players who perform even one skill at an acceptable level AND - dare I suggest - do a couple things well on the court. That's when NU will truly be competitive in the "BTN." I think we've already seen the beginning of that evolution. I don't think improving on this veteran group will take very long.
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It's amazing how half the game is always ignored in these supposedly detailed analyses.
As you said, "Oh well ..."
For what it is worth, Ken Pom has the Big Ten in 5th place behind the Big 12, ACC, Pac 12 and Big East (very narrowly). Ahead of SEC and far ahead of AAC.
Team still feels two years away. I'll take McIntosh's senior year as "the" year.
Big Ten would definitely take the Pac 12. They probably have more balance, but B1G is better at the top. ACC hasn't beaten the B1G in the challenge in seven years. They crowed about it when they were winning, so they can't claim it means nothing now that they're not winning. Big East is pretty legit. They're a smaller conference with some strong teams and good balance. As far as the SEC, football season is over. AAC — bleh.
Ask any NU fan and they will take just one NCAA appearance in his or her lifetime. An NCAA berth is like the Rose Bowl.
Not me. That's the next step. Either an NCAA championship or sustained national competitiveness is what I yearn.
I wouldn't accept that once we get competitive. It's much harder for a football team to make the Rose Bowl than for a basketball team to make the tournament. In a good year, the B1G might get 8-9 teams to the tourney. There'll never be more than one in the Rose Bowl. I think you give Collins at least two more years to have an entire team of his recruits and then take a look at how things are going. If we aren't at least in the NIT by then and contending for berths in the NCAA on a regular basis, it will be time for worry. But it's not as if there is a template of great NU success in basketball against which to evaluate him.
I think you make some good points.
This year demonstrates that a consistently decent team, not a great team, can do well in a transition year for the Big Ten. NU is decent, but inconsistent.
When Collins has four years of recruits on board NU will look very different. Upperclassmen of BMac, Pardon, Falzon and Law and underclassmen of Rap and Bennet. To name only a few. And underclassmen on par or better than the current group.
And then every year an equally talented team. Those teams will be capable of playing at a high level consistently and will make runs at times through the conference.
Whether they make the tournament every year will depend on recruiting. But they will make the tournament. And my argument is that is as difficult to accomplish at NU as making the Rose Bowl. Harder, in fact, than making the Rose Bowl at another Big Ten school.
