This. Though not sure I'd group UNC in there - not sure there is any Texas of the mid-Atlantic. I don't think their market is Texas like, and they aren't as strong on the football index as the other three. Maybe throw in USC and maybe also Oregon instead.
On Clemson, you may be right that its unlikely, but it shouldn't be. I think we can all agree OU is a homerun add for the SEC (well except for those delusional folks who still think Rutgers and Maryland were good adds). Clemson would be most like OU in terms of impact and maybe even more so. Bigger population/market than OU for sure. Perennial CFP contender and actually gets past the semifinals. They alone would enable the B1G to lay a legitimate claim to being #1 in football still. Without them and with anyone else, we are 2nd to the SEC, especially an SEC with OU. They increase the football power index of the B1G more than any other school out there, and that would absolutely help recruiting. I get that FSU would help get us into Florida, but not getting why you think UNC would have so much impact.
We really flubbed this whole thing with the whole AAU BS. Nebraska isn't AAU anymore so it doesn't mean anything, and we would bring ND in a heartbeat. Just hold the nose, and add OU (and Texas) and we aren't looking to be #2. Instead we got Rutgers and Maryland. Ugh.
Clemson is a power now, but who knows what that looks like in the future, especially 10 years out which is when the ACC is probably poachable. FSU institutionally is more of a long-term power (say if coaches change at both) because it's the 2nd most important school in Florida with similar pull over Florida recruits like A&M has in Texas. And that's always FSU's edge over Clemson if you think long-term. Clemson can revert to being like a better South Carolina if Dabo leaves, but if he stays long enough and really cements them as a generational national brand, they could seriously be worth taking. FSU always can be a national power; Clemson's will be much more dependent on having a special coach (like a better version of Va Tech?).
That's the fortunate (?) thing about the ACC not being poachable for 10-11 years, it means we get to see how these things play out.
Now you may very well be right; if Clemson makes 8 of the next say 10-11 playoffs, it will be very hard to argue that they aren't a national power in their own right, and the Big Ten would have to seriously think about taking them. There's a point at which a school has been a national power for so long that it remains one.
But it's always worth thinking; what if a program has a bad coach, would you still take them? How easily can they come back to being a national power from that. FSU is much easier to turn around than Clemson if both had bad coaches.
Not so different from how Northwestern has slowly changed perception of our program to the point where people typically refer to the 80s Northwestern as a separate time if they're comparing current Kansas to other historically bad periods for power programs (though guess they won't be a power program soon). If Dabo keeps building Clemson the next decade, maybe they will be seen as a long-term power and not a short-term spike.
Thing is, adding say 7 or 8 Pac-12 schools probably is the easiest route to adding USC/Oregon/UW because they can play each other 6-7 times in sports and then just play a few out of division games against the rest of the Big Ten (at least for football). Makes things easier in terms of travel.
In any case, yeah I can understand the argument about UNC. But I'd maintain that the Big Ten and SEC would take the duo of UNC and UVa in a heartbeat, and UNC is the more valuable of the two. That duo is worth $140+ million to either the Big Ten or SEC, so both would do it. They're the heart of the Mid-Atlantic which neither conference has; huge recruiting grounds/solid brands/great basketball schools (even though that's not driving the bus).
Yeah, the AAU thing is overblown in my opinion.
I think you're wrong about Maryland/Rutgers btw. They did bring big markets with them that they pump tons of alumni into and that have tons of Big Ten alums (NYC/Philly/DC markets; they have like several hundred thousand alums in those 2 markets to combine with all the Big Ten alums in those 2 markets). We get a ton of Big Ten Network money out of those markets due to those 2 schools (in combination with the rest of the Big Ten alums there).
Maryland/Rutgers is like a lesser version of UNC/UVa (which is why the Big Ten would add UNC/UVa in a nanosecond). Adding large flagships in good markets filled with Big Ten alums and with good academics will always make sense for the conference.
The SEC did the same with A&M/Missouri or South Carolina/Arkansas. None of those are national brands. They just bring extra markets/recruiting grounds/flagships in their states.
I get that Texas/OU were different because they're also national brands, but that doesn't change the value that market additions still give.
I agree though that the Big Ten must bring football powers in the next move which is why I'm heavily in favor of adding FSU (leading UNC/Duke/UVa/Ga Tech out of the ACC) and then hitting #20 with Notre Dame. That gives you 2 national football brands and all the markets from NYC down to Florida on the East Coast to go along with all the Midwest markets that the conference already has.