And with the injuries we only won 4 games but all 4 wins were against bottom 5 teams (as there was a 3 way tie for 4th) . We were 50% vs this group and 0% against the rest of the league. No one is saying that the schedule was tough nationally but within the BIG, we had less chance for victories than any other team because we only played 4 games against the bottom 5. Who you play makes a difference. Back in 2012-13, we played 8 games against bottom 5 teams even though we were one of the 5 teams. This year, 4.
Tough Conference Schedule
- Thread starter Walker Fan
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Re: just look at the RR ONLY and project...what do you get?
An ALL TEAM ROUND ROBIN.
Maybe it sounds complicated to you, but it really isn't.
All it means is that EVERY SINGLE TEAM plays EACH of the other teams EXACTLY ONE time.
Please, ponder that several times, and if necessary ask a friend or neighbor for help. I promise you will UNDERSTAND what playing EACH of the other teams ONE TIME means.
It is the FAIREST possible assessment of a team's strength, under the current format (yes a home-and-home RR would be even fairer but for whatever reasons the B1G doesn't have that many conference games).
NU DID PLAY AN ALL-TEAM ROUND ROBIN.
Don't believe it? Check it yourself and/or ask a friend/neighbor to confirm/explain it.
In the RR, NU got a 38% (5 of 13) winning percentage.
Check it yourself if you want.
If you forget the 5 extra games, and simply PROJECT the 38% win per. on 18 B1G games, the result is 6.9 wins.
Yes, yes, you can verify it with a calculator.
And NU actual number of B1G reg. season wins was...SIX.
No, a team cannot win 0.9 of one game. So you can either assume that 0.9 means one win...or perhaps 0.9 of a win is like a quadruple-OT one-point loss.
Regardless, NU with one more win or a quad-OT loss would have DONE NOTHING since NU also had a BOTTOM-50 (of 351) OOC schedule.
The ROUND ROBIN PROVES that the 5-extra B1G games had NO effect whatsoever on the NU season. NU got what it deserves. PERIOD.
Do ask for help if needed.
Look, you have to make a TINY EFFORT to understand an EXTREMELY SIMPLE concept:
An ALL TEAM ROUND ROBIN.
Maybe it sounds complicated to you, but it really isn't.
All it means is that EVERY SINGLE TEAM plays EACH of the other teams EXACTLY ONE time.
Please, ponder that several times, and if necessary ask a friend or neighbor for help. I promise you will UNDERSTAND what playing EACH of the other teams ONE TIME means.
It is the FAIREST possible assessment of a team's strength, under the current format (yes a home-and-home RR would be even fairer but for whatever reasons the B1G doesn't have that many conference games).
NU DID PLAY AN ALL-TEAM ROUND ROBIN.
Don't believe it? Check it yourself and/or ask a friend/neighbor to confirm/explain it.
In the RR, NU got a 38% (5 of 13) winning percentage.
Check it yourself if you want.
If you forget the 5 extra games, and simply PROJECT the 38% win per. on 18 B1G games, the result is 6.9 wins.
Yes, yes, you can verify it with a calculator.
And NU actual number of B1G reg. season wins was...SIX.
No, a team cannot win 0.9 of one game. So you can either assume that 0.9 means one win...or perhaps 0.9 of a win is like a quadruple-OT one-point loss.
Regardless, NU with one more win or a quad-OT loss would have DONE NOTHING since NU also had a BOTTOM-50 (of 351) OOC schedule.
The ROUND ROBIN PROVES that the 5-extra B1G games had NO effect whatsoever on the NU season. NU got what it deserves. PERIOD.
Do ask for help if needed.
Re: just look at the RR ONLY and project...what do you get?
If Felis speaks and nobody hears it, did he really speak at all?
Re: just look at the RR ONLY and project...what do you get?
Deriving a winning percentage from the round robin part of the schedule and applying it to the remaining 5 games, which were against teams that were, on average stronger than the mean (win total) for the conference is where your argument falls apart If the remaining 5 games are against the top 5 teams in the conference, you'll likely not win as many games as if they are against the 5 weakest teams aside from us (we finished #10).
You cannot assume Big Ten teams are equal in strength, which is exactly what you are doing. Surely you understand this, but maybe you don't. You also thought Nebraska doesn't travel well based upon attendance at opponent's sold out home games.
This post was edited on 4/3 4:29 PM by Gladeskat
Deriving a winning percentage from the round robin part of the schedule and applying it to the remaining 5 games, which were against teams that were, on average stronger than the mean (win total) for the conference is where your argument falls apart If the remaining 5 games are against the top 5 teams in the conference, you'll likely not win as many games as if they are against the 5 weakest teams aside from us (we finished #10).
You cannot assume Big Ten teams are equal in strength, which is exactly what you are doing. Surely you understand this, but maybe you don't. You also thought Nebraska doesn't travel well based upon attendance at opponent's sold out home games.
This post was edited on 4/3 4:29 PM by Gladeskat
Re: just look at the RR ONLY and project...what do you get?
I am assuming nothing...since the point of contention are the extra 5 games, to evaluate/assess NU B1G season, I am simply ignoring those 5 games...I take the ROUND ROBIN record, and project it to 18 games...why on earth is that so difficult to comprehend???
If you do it, then NU 'won' 6.9 B1G games...which happens to be (nearly) the same it actually won in the true schedule...hence the 'tougher' 5 extra games 'cost' NU AT MOST 0.9 win...which means either one 'win' or an extremely close loss...take your pick...it doesn't really matter... get it, now?
Come on Glades! You are better than that! Aren't you some kind of researcher, or something???
I am assuming nothing...since the point of contention are the extra 5 games, to evaluate/assess NU B1G season, I am simply ignoring those 5 games...I take the ROUND ROBIN record, and project it to 18 games...why on earth is that so difficult to comprehend???
If you do it, then NU 'won' 6.9 B1G games...which happens to be (nearly) the same it actually won in the true schedule...hence the 'tougher' 5 extra games 'cost' NU AT MOST 0.9 win...which means either one 'win' or an extremely close loss...take your pick...it doesn't really matter... get it, now?
Re: just look at the RR ONLY and project...what do you get?
And you are assuming that every opponent is of equal strength. They are not. We played only 4 games against the bottom 5. No other team played less than 5 (NEB who did not win a BIG game on the road and PSU who only won 2 BIG games) and the rest played 6 or more against this group. Extrapolate that over an 18 game schedule and you get 13.5 wins. Or go against the top 5 and you get that we might have won 2-3 games. Or go back to your 2012-13 season that you like to bring up. Against the bottom 5, we won 50% so over 18 games we should have won 9. But against the rest of the league we won ZERO. But according to your way of thinking (all opponents being the same) , we should have won half of those game.
It is more likely that you will win games against the bottom 5 than it is against other teams. We only played teams in that group 4 times. No one else played that group less than 5 games and most were 6 or more. If we played that group the BIG average of 6 times, reducing our games against other teams by two , it is probable that we would have won at least one more game and very likely two. (three of the for opponents in this group would have been played at home rather than on the road and the team that we played at home, we manhandled so it is likely that any game we played against this group would have been Ws) And while 1 win would have done little other than to get us to a 0.500 record, two wins would have gotten us to a winning record and had us positioned for post season.
For example, Mich had 7 games against this group and went 6-1. They won 8 BIG games but only 2 were against the other 8 teams.
And you are assuming that every opponent is of equal strength. They are not. We played only 4 games against the bottom 5. No other team played less than 5 (NEB who did not win a BIG game on the road and PSU who only won 2 BIG games) and the rest played 6 or more against this group. Extrapolate that over an 18 game schedule and you get 13.5 wins. Or go against the top 5 and you get that we might have won 2-3 games. Or go back to your 2012-13 season that you like to bring up. Against the bottom 5, we won 50% so over 18 games we should have won 9. But against the rest of the league we won ZERO. But according to your way of thinking (all opponents being the same) , we should have won half of those game.
It is more likely that you will win games against the bottom 5 than it is against other teams. We only played teams in that group 4 times. No one else played that group less than 5 games and most were 6 or more. If we played that group the BIG average of 6 times, reducing our games against other teams by two , it is probable that we would have won at least one more game and very likely two. (three of the for opponents in this group would have been played at home rather than on the road and the team that we played at home, we manhandled so it is likely that any game we played against this group would have been Ws) And while 1 win would have done little other than to get us to a 0.500 record, two wins would have gotten us to a winning record and had us positioned for post season.
For example, Mich had 7 games against this group and went 6-1. They won 8 BIG games but only 2 were against the other 8 teams.
Re: just look at the RR ONLY and project...what do you get?
This post was edited on 4/3 11:55 PM by Gladeskat
This is funny! I'm not going to bother repeating myself other than to say you are completely unaware of the assumptions of your "percent win analysis". hdhntr1 sees the faulty assumptions of your analysis as well. Try getting that analysis 'published'. See what Las Vegas thinks of it. Hint: Wisconsin and MSU are not equivalent to PSU and Rutgers.
This post was edited on 4/3 11:55 PM by Gladeskat
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