Four of the top five teams in the latest CFP rankings are BIG schools
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
Tough to Play in the BIG
- Thread starter TheC
- Start date
I am not buying this ranking at all. How on earth is PSU 4th when James loses every big game? Indiana, cmon. They would be 10 point dogs against Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee! I can’t stand the SEC, but no way the big ( overall) is better or even close to them this year. Is this a vintage OSU team? They may beat us by 50+ but they have flaws. It’s possible Oregon or OSU could win the Natty, but I would take the field against the B1G for the Natty right now.
wow, chop down the whole Big Ten. Amazing!!! If IU is ten point dogs to those SEC teams, does that mean NU 35 to 45 point dogs?
Yes.
You Indiana guys got censors on other fan boards when anyone questions the ranking of Basketball or now football team.
We can agree to disagree. I still think OSU is the best team in the country (only flaw is a banged up oline). Oregon beat them and Boise in close games and has destroyed everyone else so they are legit. I think PSU is really good just not as good as OSU. Indiana I’m not sure about.
The top of the SEC is not nearly as good as in years past. They are much deeper than the BIG but their best is not as good as BIG best. Ole miss lost to a bad Kentucky and mediocre LSU. Bama lost to Vandy (who lost to Georgia at). Georgia has looked elite in one game. The rest don’t have enough talent.
I would take the field against any conference to win the national title.
Depends on the bracket. But in my view, ACC and big 12 champ aren’t good enough to win 3 games against the best. So it comes down to BIG and SEC and I would lean strongly to BIG.
The winner is coming from either the SEC or the B1G. I don’t see BYU, Miami , ND, or Boise State with the Natty. Georgia may not make the playoff and they would be favored against any of those 4. Doesn’t mean they are guaranteed to beat them but that would be the betting line. If OSU convincingly handles Indiana, the B1G championship is for the number 1 seed. Loser gets 5 seed. No issues if this is the case. Indiana gets a spot unless OSU beats them by like 17 or more. PSU to me is the major problem I have. No idea how they can be 4th. I wouldn’t want to face the 2nd, 3rd or 4th SEC team in the first round. Texas could lose another game and they are still in and dangerous. At any rate, this 12 playoff is way more interesting than the previous 4 team playoff and I wouldn’t be all that surprised if only 1 of the top 4 seeds wins a game.
Sure, I'm just saying that if you don't think any particular conference has a greater than 50% chance to win the title then you should bet the field instead.
I understand. That’s why I said the only viable contenders are from sec and big. And I strongly lean big. Ergo, higher than 50%.
The field is just going to be the other of the Big Ten or SEC.
Big Ten + SEC combined have like 90+% chances of winning it all given they're likely to have 8 out of 12 teams + the strongest teams.
The thing is... all the SEC teams are heavily flawed as well.
Georgia's offense is a mess at times. Ole Miss has had some clunkers as well. Alabama it depends entirely on what team shows up.
Even Texas and Tennessee have had some uneven games.
I don't think either conference is really ahead; it's just hard to specifically say there's some juggernaut out there like there was last year with Michigan and Georgia (until Alabama edged Georgia out of the SEC title game).
I’d like to see Ole Miss play up north in December. Those Rebs would freeze their Hoddy Toddys off.
Dude, you Hoosiers beat us by 17 (?) with a late rally. Only lead by 3 in the 4th Q.
I think the middle and upper middle of the SEC is better than the Big Ten’s - a reversal from last years when the top of the SEC was usually the best but the Big Ten was usually deeper - and that’s partly why the SEC top schools have taken more losses. After the top 4 the Big Ten falls off a cliff.
On the other hand, Indiana will likely finish with one B1G loss and their best win will be…at Michigan State? Home v Nebraska? Toughest conference in the country, unless you don’t play anybody.
Back in 1995, NU dodging OSU was one of the big stories of the Rose Bowl run. What luck! Now teams play ~1/2 of opponents. Math can tell you who’s likely better, but it’s a lot tougher to see it happen in the field.
The SEC is down this season. The top of the conference is a bunch of pretty good teams, like that whole “when you’ve got two quarterbacks, you’ve got none” thing.
Same for Penn State.
Frankly, Oregon had some good luck on their side to pull out that game against OSU. If OSU had won, you'd (likely) have Oregon, PSU, and Indiana all with one loss to Ohio State and you'd use the tie breaking procedure to see who plays OSU again in the championship.
Interesting discussion.
Here' my computer rankings... This is mostly based on margin of victory, with caps for outliers, decreasing weights as you go back in time and decreasing weight for mismatches. (So competitive recent games get the most weight, blowouts get capped and early season mismatches don't count as much). I don't currently give extra points for winning the game, but I intend to modify the code.
Point spreads should track the difference in ratings.
Here' my computer rankings... This is mostly based on margin of victory, with caps for outliers, decreasing weights as you go back in time and decreasing weight for mismatches. (So competitive recent games get the most weight, blowouts get capped and early season mismatches don't count as much). I don't currently give extra points for winning the game, but I intend to modify the code.
Point spreads should track the difference in ratings.
| Team | Conference | Rating |
| Mississippi | SEC | 141.09 |
| Alabama | SEC | 140.10 |
| Notre Dame | ACC | 139.54 |
| Ohio State | Big Ten | 139.34 |
| Texas | SEC | 137.75 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 135.87 |
| Georgia | SEC | 135.67 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 134.07 |
| Indiana | Big Ten | 133.96 |
| Oregon | Big Ten | 133.76 |
| Miami, FL | ACC | 132.29 |
| Penn State | Big Ten | 132.05 |
| SMU | ACC | 130.11 |
| Northwestern | Big Ten | 110.61 |
We're the 14th best team in the country??!! That's awesome!!
I don't need any further explanation.
You should trademark this and sell it to ESPN. They would love how the PWB rankings stand.
Hey, I'm as biased against the SEC as any Northern American, but unfortunately the computer program isn't.
It doesn't even know anything about conferences!
More a reflection that the committee prioritizes W-L record at this juncture than SoS.
Also shows that aside from the top 4 teams, the B1G is full of mediocre to decent teams, so ripe for finishing in the top half.
Once UM, USC, UDub, one or two of Wisky, Iowa, Nebby or MSU get their act together, it's going to get a lot tougher.
Also important to remember in this conversation that the committee clearly partially views these midseason rankings as partially a road map to how the final rankings will be done rather than purely a snapshot of right now. They tend to set up pretty explicit “you two are gonna play and loser is gonna be out,” “you can get in but need help,” or “you’re in, but don’t push it vs OSU” type situations in the rankings. It’s both a ranking and a sort of clarity into their thinking that gives something close to a specific path for the teams in the running.
Unless a QB gets hurt and Alabama scores an upset which causes a nonconference transitive knot, then they just say YOLO and change direction
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