Vegas Odds vs. BGSU
- Thread starter No Chores
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"Expect Victory". But take the points. And the Cannoli.
Let us know how much you throw in it, so you can buy a round. If you are wrong, maybe we'll buy you one.
BGSU ended last season ranked about 108 nationally...that is very bad...BUT virtually the same ranking Nevada had...and looked how they played the cats...furthermore at least some expected them to be a much improved team...in a preseason ranking, they were picked third in their MAC division and even got a vote to play in the MAC championship game.
Against MSU they sort of showed some improvement by holding their offense to a moderate output (4 TD), while not doing much offensively themselves...obviously they still played MSU better than NU played Duke... but then BUGS lost to a decent FCS team...so who knows...It does seem the will cover comfortably...winning is another matter.
Against MSU they sort of showed some improvement by holding their offense to a moderate output (4 TD), while not doing much offensively themselves...obviously they still played MSU better than NU played Duke... but then BUGS lost to a decent FCS team...so who knows...It does seem the will cover comfortably...winning is another matter.
As we have seen preseason rankings mean squat. NU was picked by many "experts" to win the west and might just be the worst Big 10 team this season. Not really interested in how someone performs last season or what their preseason rankings are......
So, what exactly are you interested in, as basis to have a sense on whether the betting spread is realistic? (this thread's point).
This early in the season there isn't much to go by, is there? If my math is right most teams have only played two (2) games this season....one of them against an FCS opponent in many cases....So, previous season performance and preseason rankings seem useful, under the circumstances. If you can bring up other bases for comparison by all means do...you won't find many, though.
My eyes watching two NU games this season. NU is at best a mediocre football team right now, and mediocre football teams don't win against FBS teams by 21. BGSU played competitively against MSU this year (in fact last week) whilst NU shat the bed against Duke. So as I said near the top of this tread, take BGSU and 21.5 and hope for a narrow NU victory.
Have to think it will tighten to 20 or so before kickoff.
This team is so consistently inconsistent, it would not surprise me for the offense to click and NU wins by 14-17 points. More than 20 though...have a really hard time seeing it.
This team is so consistently inconsistent, it would not surprise me for the offense to click and NU wins by 14-17 points. More than 20 though...have a really hard time seeing it.
Isn't it like a board rule or something that no positive posts are allowed after a loss?
Ask and ye shall receive:
2010 ILST 37-3 (34)
2011 EIU 42-21 (21)
2011 IND 59-38 (21)
2011 RICE 28-6 (22)
2012 SDAK 38-7 (31)
2012 ILL 50-14 (36)
2013 SYR 48-27 (21)
2013 WMICH 38-17 (21)
2014 PSU 29-6 (23)
2014 PUR 38-14 (24)
2015 EIU 41-0 (41)
2015 MIN 27-0 (27)
2016 PUR 45-17 (28)
2016 ILL 42-21 (21)
So, if I was a betting man, and I am, I would say I lean NU at -20.5, and lean BGSU at +21 or higher.
So, last year, a year in which we lost to an FCS team, we beat two Big Ten teams by 21 points or more. And we almost always beat at least 2 teams by 21 or more.
This is why I don't bet on NU.
Exactly: we average exactly two 21 point wins per year over the past 7 years - and we've been remarkably consistent in getting 2 per year. And we've never been skunked. I had to go back to 2010 and 2011 to find any deviation at all!
So honestly, giving the points looks pretty good because I don't know who else we're gonna beat by 21 - other than Purdue again.
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I was surprised how consistent we are at 2 per year. I didn't expect to see that at all. I expected to see a couple of white-hot streaks account for almost all of them, to be honest. And I didn't see a 14 number in 7 years. I was thinking more like half that, frankly.
As someone who placed a few bets EVERY week, I always lay off NU games. To much inconsistenty to bet. A lot of people bet the opponent when we lay a large number and bet NU as a home dog. I can't touch it either way.
Yeah, I bet Nevada and won, but no way I was touching that Duke game last week. I also don't bet against NU when winning the bet probably means NU losing (as a 2-point Duke spread would have meant).
I think we are going to lose to BGSU on Saturday nite by at least ten points. This team is flat and sad.
And since teams in college football never change from week to week, you presumably make a lot of money exploiting "flat and sad" teams. How much did you have us losing to Duke by last year, Mr. "past performance is indicative of future returns"?
Yeah!
Let's see a comparison of predictions.
Mick says we lose by ten. Mike, what's your prediction?
I'm a big enough man to admit I was wrong.
