FOOTBALL Wednesday Duke PFF Analysis

[mshelton33]

MORE PFF: Sunday Duke PFF Analysis


OFFENSE

Top three grades:

TE Duke Olges - 79.9

LG Cooper Lovelace - 77.8

LT Caleb Tiernan - 71.9

Olges grades out the highest, albeit on 19 snaps, but he played well blocking and snagged a catch for five yards. The left side of the offensive line, with Lovelace filling in for the injured Herzog, played exceptionally well. Braun said he anticipates Herzog will be available this Saturday vs. Eastern Illinois and I think he will likely return to his starting role at left guard, but Lovelace played as well as can be expected as a tackle moving inside.

Keep an eye out for him to potentially rotate in a bit as he showed the staff he's staying ready.



Passing:

Mike Wright was given a poor grade at 58.8 overall with a slightly lower 58.2 for his passing. Wright really struggled in this game and Northwestern has since benched him for Jack Lausch, but I'll still give a summary of the numbers here.

Wright completed just two passes past the first down marker in a windy game, finishing 2-for-9 putting the ball in the air past the sticks. He was 12-for-23 past the line of scrimmage and completed. As I highlighted the week prior, when he was 3-for-8 under pressure, Wright struggled with four-man rushes. He was 1-for-7 under pressure last week.



Receiving:

Duke Olges - 79.9

Cam Porter - 71.1

Marshall Lang - 70.1

AJ Henning - 67.6

Joseph Himon II - 59.9

Bryce Kirtz - 57.6

Calvin Johnson II - 57.2

Thomas Gordon - 57.0

Frank Covey IV - 49.2

Running back Cam Porter caught three passes for 27 yards, his most receptions since he recorded four vs. Rutgers in the 2023 season opener. His ability to use his hands in the passing game really opens up his opportunity to seize control as the team's lead back, and Lujan seems far more interested in using him as a pass catcher than Bajakian was.

AJ Henning led the team with eight catches on a whopping 12 targets, up from nine last week. No other receiver, tight end or running back had more than three.

Bryce Kirtz had just three targets and two catches a week after nine targets and six catches for 91 yards.



Rushing:

Cam Porter - 71.5

Joseph Himon II - 59.9

Caleb Komolafe - 45.2

Komolafe gets hammered here because of his fumble. This is Porter's highest PFF grade since he recorded a 72.1 in the win over Minnesota last season. Northwestern had the most success going left or close to the right. 65% of their yards came from rushing in the right-side A Gap (RG Josh Thompson's left shoulder) or to the left. They rushed for -9 yards on four carries to the right-side C Gap (RT Ben Wrather's right shoulder) and the outside.



Blocking:

LG Cooper Lovelace - 77.8

LT Caleb Tiernan - 71.9

RT Ben Wrather - 70.8

RG Josh Thompson - 63.3

C Jack Bailey - 60

PFF continues to grade Bailey low as he and Wright struggled to connect cleanly on many shotgun snaps. We'll see if the problem persists under Lausch. All five of the big guys up front graded a 77 or higher on their pass blocking, where they are yet to allow a sack.

Lovelace's 78.8 run blocking grade is 13.6 points higher than the next offensive lineman, Caleb Tiernan and his 65.2.



DEFENSE


Top three grades:

DE Anto Saka - 82

LB Xander Mueller - 80.7

CB Theran Johnson - 70.3

There's a clear picture of the Northwestern defense. Saka is on another planet right now off the edge and really starting to live up to his four-star rating out of high school. Mueller is playing every snap and is the rock this defense is built on. Johnson continues to play well on the corners and allow the front seven to cut loose.


Defensive line snaps

The defense played 14 more snaps overall vs. Duke than vs. Miami. Game-to-game change in parentheses

RJ Pearson - 49 (+22)

Najee Story - 47 (+18)

Aidan Hubbard - 42 (+16)

Jaylen Pate - 39 (+4)

Sean McLaughlin - 32 (+6)

Anto Saka - 28 (0)

Tyler Gant - 22 (+3)

Michael Kilbane - 20 (-13)

Dylan Roberts - 9 (+9)

Jaiden Cameron - 9 (0)

I was very surprised to see Kilbane take the truest drop of the group, but it makes sense when he seemed to get a boost Week 1 as emergency relief at defensive tackle for Brendan Flakes' injury. DL coach Christian Smith had more time to create a rotation to shore that up in the week between games, and redshirt freshman Dylan Roberts got some action.


Top three pass rushers by percentage of snaps

Dylan Roberts - 100%

Anto Saka - 71.4%

Sean McLaughlin - 68.8%


Top three run defenders by percentage of snaps

Jaiden Cameron - 55.5%

Aidan Hubbard - 47.6%

Michael Kilbane - 45%


Coverage grades for defensive backs

Robert Fitzgerald - 67.5

Theran Johnson - 66..9

Devin Turner - 66.1

Evan Smith - 63.5

Braden Turner - 62.7

Coco Azema - 60.4

Josh Fussell - 51.8

 

[Hungry Jack]

"They rushed for -9 yards on four carries to the right-side C Gap (RT Ben Wrather's right shoulder) and the outside."

Just more salt in the wound over that fated third down call in OT.

 

[DaCat]

Bailey needs to improve his snaps or else should be replaced. There were too many plays when he snapped the ball too low.

 

[techtim72]

What is/are the reason/s for Covey's low grade?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

What is/are the reason/s for Covey's low grade?

GCG did the tape review for PFF.

 

[palbeans]

Bailey needs to improve his snaps or else should be replaced. There were too many plays when he snapped the ball too low.

I thought the same watching the game in the stadium, but I just finished watching a recording of the game. The snaps are inconsistent in height, which is a problem, but I only counted 5 at or below the knee level, all from late in the 3rd quarter through the end of the 4th. The vast majority were at or above Wright's waist, although he does tend to bend down a bit while receiving the snaps, which makes them higher relative to his waist than if he was more upright.

 

[techtim72]

Problem solved. Bringing in a shorter QB.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Problem solved. Bringing in a shorter QB.

Does Persa have any remaining eligibility?

 

[eddie_gocats]

Or get that 5'2" receiver from the Peay era...

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Or get that 5'2" receiver from the Peay era...

Patrick Wright. Great kid!

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Patrick Wright. Great kid!

I remember Barnett's quote about Patrick Wright. "Great kid. I love having him on the team. We are not bringing in any more Patrick Wrights." Or something like that.

 

[hdhntr1]

Bailey needs to improve his snaps or else should be replaced. There were too many plays when he snapped the ball too low.

Do we even have a guy to replace him? Even the snaps at the right height seemed to cause problems for Wright, Not sure if it was the snaps or Wright

 

[hdhntr1]

I thought the same watching the game in the stadium, but I just finished watching a recording of the game. The snaps are inconsistent in height, which is a problem, but I only counted 5 at or below the knee level, all from late in the 3rd quarter through the end of the 4th. The vast majority were at or above Wright's waist, although he does tend to bend down a bit while receiving the snaps, which makes them higher relative to his waist than if he was more upright.

Where ever they were, Wright seemed to have to focus more than ideal as it slowed him getting ready to execute the rest of the play

 

[DaCat]

Do we even have a guy to replace him? Even the snaps at the right height seemed to cause problems for Wright, Not sure if it was the snaps or Wright

Wrather and Carsello played center last year. Herzog was recruited as a center too.

 

[Gatabowl]

Does Persa have any remaining eligibility?

A small part of his Achilles redshirted.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Bailey needs to improve his snaps or else should be replaced. There were too many plays when he snapped the ball too low.

No snap issues tonight (that I can recall). Did Bailey make a miraculous improvement or was Lausch the difference? 🤔

 

[lurkercat]

I fed this post with grades into ChatGPT to see how it recommends we beat UW (after also reading week 3 box scores and game summaries). It was pretending to be Nick Saban building the strategy to win.

Seems reasonable...




If we analyze Northwestern's chances of beating Washington through the lens of a Nick Saban-level coach, here's how they should approach the game:

1. Establish a Physical Identity Early:

Offense: Northwestern must dominate the line of scrimmage, especially on the left side, where their strongest blockers are. A consistent, downhill running game will set the tone and control the clock, keeping Washington’s explosive offense off the field. Establishing this physicality is critical to wear down Washington's defense over four quarters.

Execution: Stick with power runs, especially through the A and B gaps, and utilize pulling guards to create mismatches. If the run game gains traction, use play-action to keep Washington’s secondary guessing and open up the passing game.


2. Quarterback Play Must Be Efficient and Mistake-Free:

Offense: Jack Lausch needs to execute a clean game plan. This means making quick reads and avoiding unnecessary risks. Lausch should focus on short, high-percentage throws—slants, quick outs, and screens—to move the chains and build confidence.

Key Points: Quick passing will neutralize Washington's pass rush and allow Northwestern to control the tempo. It’s essential that Lausch recognizes blitzes pre-snap and adjusts protections or checks down to a safe option.


3. Defensive Scheme:

Defense: Northwestern’s defense must create pressure on Washington’s quarterback, disrupting their timing. This means utilizing Saka and other top pass rushers to collapse the pocket consistently. Additionally, the secondary must play disciplined football, avoiding big plays and maintaining tight coverage, particularly on deep routes.

Adjustments: Incorporate mixed coverages and disguises to confuse Washington’s quarterback, forcing him into mistakes. The defensive backs should be prepared to jump routes, especially in third-and-long situations, where Washington is more likely to take shots downfield.


4. Special Teams Execution:

Field Position: Special teams could be the X-factor. Northwestern needs to focus on winning the field position battle. Punting effectively, avoiding return yardage, and capitalizing on any field goal opportunities will be crucial.

Game Plan: Consider implementing surprise elements—such as a fake punt or a well-timed onside kick—if the game’s momentum needs shifting.


5. Win the Turnover Battle:

Defense: Northwestern’s defense has shown the ability to force turnovers. Capitalizing on any mistakes Washington makes, whether through aggressive pass rush or tight coverage, will be crucial.

Offense: Offensively, it’s about ball security. Turnovers could swing the momentum drastically in a game like this, so Northwestern must protect the football at all costs.


6. Situational Mastery:

Third Down: Both offensively and defensively, Northwestern must excel on third down. On offense, convert manageable third downs by sticking to plays the team executes well. Defensively, they need to create third-and-long situations for Washington and then pressure the quarterback.

Red Zone: In the red zone, Northwestern must finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals. Creative play-calling, including potential trick plays or utilizing the tight ends, could be critical in these situations.


7. Mental Toughness and In-Game Adjustments:

In-Game: The coaching staff must be prepared to make real-time adjustments. If something isn’t working, change it quickly. For instance, if Washington is neutralizing the run game, pivot to a quick passing game or involve more misdirection plays.

Mental Game: The team must maintain focus and resilience, especially if Washington gains momentum. Staying mentally tough and executing under pressure will be key in close situations.


8. Matchup Exploitation:

Identify Weaknesses: Use film study and PFF grades to identify Washington’s weak points—be it a vulnerable cornerback, a lineman who struggles with certain moves, or tendencies in their offensive play-calling. Northwestern should tailor its game plan to attack these specific weaknesses relentlessly.


By following this comprehensive approach, Northwestern can position themselves to compete effectively with Washington, staying in the game and potentially pulling off an upset. The focus should be on execution, discipline, and capitalizing on every opportunity presented during the game.

 

[lurkercat]

I will also be attending the game with my son who is looking at colleges. Got row 1 seats in 106 so will get a good view of the team near mid field even if it is harder to see the plays. Should be a fun trip.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

I fed this post with grades into ChatGPT to see how it recommends we beat UW (after also reading week 3 box scores and game summaries). It was pretending to be Nick Saban building the strategy to win.

Seems reasonable...




If we analyze Northwestern's chances of beating Washington through the lens of a Nick Saban-level coach, here's how they should approach the game:

1. Establish a Physical Identity Early:

Offense: Northwestern must dominate the line of scrimmage, especially on the left side, where their strongest blockers are. A consistent, downhill running game will set the tone and control the clock, keeping Washington’s explosive offense off the field. Establishing this physicality is critical to wear down Washington's defense over four quarters.

Execution: Stick with power runs, especially through the A and B gaps, and utilize pulling guards to create mismatches. If the run game gains traction, use play-action to keep Washington’s secondary guessing and open up the passing game.


2. Quarterback Play Must Be Efficient and Mistake-Free:

Offense: Jack Lausch needs to execute a clean game plan. This means making quick reads and avoiding unnecessary risks. Lausch should focus on short, high-percentage throws—slants, quick outs, and screens—to move the chains and build confidence.

Key Points: Quick passing will neutralize Washington's pass rush and allow Northwestern to control the tempo. It’s essential that Lausch recognizes blitzes pre-snap and adjusts protections or checks down to a safe option.


3. Defensive Scheme:

Defense: Northwestern’s defense must create pressure on Washington’s quarterback, disrupting their timing. This means utilizing Saka and other top pass rushers to collapse the pocket consistently. Additionally, the secondary must play disciplined football, avoiding big plays and maintaining tight coverage, particularly on deep routes.

Adjustments: Incorporate mixed coverages and disguises to confuse Washington’s quarterback, forcing him into mistakes. The defensive backs should be prepared to jump routes, especially in third-and-long situations, where Washington is more likely to take shots downfield.


4. Special Teams Execution:

Field Position: Special teams could be the X-factor. Northwestern needs to focus on winning the field position battle. Punting effectively, avoiding return yardage, and capitalizing on any field goal opportunities will be crucial.

Game Plan: Consider implementing surprise elements—such as a fake punt or a well-timed onside kick—if the game’s momentum needs shifting.


5. Win the Turnover Battle:

Defense: Northwestern’s defense has shown the ability to force turnovers. Capitalizing on any mistakes Washington makes, whether through aggressive pass rush or tight coverage, will be crucial.

Offense: Offensively, it’s about ball security. Turnovers could swing the momentum drastically in a game like this, so Northwestern must protect the football at all costs.


6. Situational Mastery:

Third Down: Both offensively and defensively, Northwestern must excel on third down. On offense, convert manageable third downs by sticking to plays the team executes well. Defensively, they need to create third-and-long situations for Washington and then pressure the quarterback.

Red Zone: In the red zone, Northwestern must finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals. Creative play-calling, including potential trick plays or utilizing the tight ends, could be critical in these situations.


7. Mental Toughness and In-Game Adjustments:

In-Game: The coaching staff must be prepared to make real-time adjustments. If something isn’t working, change it quickly. For instance, if Washington is neutralizing the run game, pivot to a quick passing game or involve more misdirection plays.

Mental Game: The team must maintain focus and resilience, especially if Washington gains momentum. Staying mentally tough and executing under pressure will be key in close situations.


8. Matchup Exploitation:

Identify Weaknesses: Use film study and PFF grades to identify Washington’s weak points—be it a vulnerable cornerback, a lineman who struggles with certain moves, or tendencies in their offensive play-calling. Northwestern should tailor its game plan to attack these specific weaknesses relentlessly.


By following this comprehensive approach, Northwestern can position themselves to compete effectively with Washington, staying in the game and potentially pulling off an upset. The focus should be on execution, discipline, and capitalizing on every opportunity presented during the game.

ChatGPT: Making the obvious sound insightful since 2022.

 

[corbi296]

I fed this post with grades into ChatGPT to see how it recommends we beat UW (after also reading week 3 box scores and game summaries). It was pretending to be Nick Saban building the strategy to win.

Seems reasonable...




If we analyze Northwestern's chances of beating Washington through the lens of a Nick Saban-level coach, here's how they should approach the game:

1. Establish a Physical Identity Early:

Offense: Northwestern must dominate the line of scrimmage, especially on the left side, where their strongest blockers are. A consistent, downhill running game will set the tone and control the clock, keeping Washington’s explosive offense off the field. Establishing this physicality is critical to wear down Washington's defense over four quarters.

Execution: Stick with power runs, especially through the A and B gaps, and utilize pulling guards to create mismatches. If the run game gains traction, use play-action to keep Washington’s secondary guessing and open up the passing game.


2. Quarterback Play Must Be Efficient and Mistake-Free:

Offense: Jack Lausch needs to execute a clean game plan. This means making quick reads and avoiding unnecessary risks. Lausch should focus on short, high-percentage throws—slants, quick outs, and screens—to move the chains and build confidence.

Key Points: Quick passing will neutralize Washington's pass rush and allow Northwestern to control the tempo. It’s essential that Lausch recognizes blitzes pre-snap and adjusts protections or checks down to a safe option.


3. Defensive Scheme:

Defense: Northwestern’s defense must create pressure on Washington’s quarterback, disrupting their timing. This means utilizing Saka and other top pass rushers to collapse the pocket consistently. Additionally, the secondary must play disciplined football, avoiding big plays and maintaining tight coverage, particularly on deep routes.

Adjustments: Incorporate mixed coverages and disguises to confuse Washington’s quarterback, forcing him into mistakes. The defensive backs should be prepared to jump routes, especially in third-and-long situations, where Washington is more likely to take shots downfield.


4. Special Teams Execution:

Field Position: Special teams could be the X-factor. Northwestern needs to focus on winning the field position battle. Punting effectively, avoiding return yardage, and capitalizing on any field goal opportunities will be crucial.

Game Plan: Consider implementing surprise elements—such as a fake punt or a well-timed onside kick—if the game’s momentum needs shifting.


5. Win the Turnover Battle:

Defense: Northwestern’s defense has shown the ability to force turnovers. Capitalizing on any mistakes Washington makes, whether through aggressive pass rush or tight coverage, will be crucial.

Offense: Offensively, it’s about ball security. Turnovers could swing the momentum drastically in a game like this, so Northwestern must protect the football at all costs.


6. Situational Mastery:

Third Down: Both offensively and defensively, Northwestern must excel on third down. On offense, convert manageable third downs by sticking to plays the team executes well. Defensively, they need to create third-and-long situations for Washington and then pressure the quarterback.

Red Zone: In the red zone, Northwestern must finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals. Creative play-calling, including potential trick plays or utilizing the tight ends, could be critical in these situations.


7. Mental Toughness and In-Game Adjustments:

In-Game: The coaching staff must be prepared to make real-time adjustments. If something isn’t working, change it quickly. For instance, if Washington is neutralizing the run game, pivot to a quick passing game or involve more misdirection plays.

Mental Game: The team must maintain focus and resilience, especially if Washington gains momentum. Staying mentally tough and executing under pressure will be key in close situations.


8. Matchup Exploitation:

Identify Weaknesses: Use film study and PFF grades to identify Washington’s weak points—be it a vulnerable cornerback, a lineman who struggles with certain moves, or tendencies in their offensive play-calling. Northwestern should tailor its game plan to attack these specific weaknesses relentlessly.


By following this comprehensive approach, Northwestern can position themselves to compete effectively with Washington, staying in the game and potentially pulling off an upset. The focus should be on execution, discipline, and capitalizing on every opportunity presented during the game.

This response was written by Fitz. Complementary football at its best. I like ChatGPT.

 

[techtim72]

Let me know when anyone - machine or man - comes up with a different formula for winning games. I am surprised there wasn't a final paragraph describing how scoring more points than the other team is key to victory.