What we know about next year's non-conference schedule

[pschatz25]

I've started seeing announcement of non-conference games for next season. So far I think this is all we know about next year's non-conference slate:

DePaul (12/21/24 @ WRA)
Arizona State (@ United Center)
@ Dayton

That leaves a lot of games left to figure out. The Gavitt Games series is over. I assume we'll be in a non-conference tournament. Usually those are announced pretty far in advance, but I don't recall anything for NU and I'm not seeing anything online either. Hopefully there will be a couple more power conference opponents. I assume the rest will be the usually parade of sub-200 teams. Next season we should work on blowing those teams out.

 

[Just Gary]

Tbh, I have no idea why we would schedule any games with teams below 200. It never helps us get into the tournament.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Tbh, I have no idea why we would schedule any games with teams below 200. It never helps us get into the tournament.

Scrimmage

 

[Just Gary]

Scrimmage

But it never helps. Go ahead and schedule 3-4 games with them instead of 8-10. But beating a team outside the top 200 by 20 does nothing and we have the tendency to only beat them by 10 which lowers our computer rankings.

 

[CatJones]

Tbh, I have no idea why we would schedule any games with teams below 200. It never helps us get into the tournament.

They should do it for the enjoyment of the fans. The fans are clearly a secondary consideration to the basketball program.

 

[its_the_sauce]

They should do it for the enjoyment of the fans. The fans are clearly a secondary consideration to the basketball program.

So did you enjoy Chicago State game last year?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

So did you enjoy Chicago State game last year?

Right, games against 200+ teams turned out to have zero impact on the season.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Preseason Tourney Fields

We are not connected to any tournaments yet. Many fields have been filled.

 

[IGNORE2]

Right, games against 200+ teams turned out to have zero impact on the season.

You are an end justifies the means guy?

 

[JournCat]

Right, games against 200+ teams turned out to have zero impact on the season.

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

 

[Catreporter]

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

Yeah, that hurt a little but the big hurt came from the injuries that cost us a couple of big wins that could have changed our seed. I still like playing local teams in the non conference.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

I don’t believe it knocked us down a seed line.

Losing to Wisconsin knocked us down a seed line.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I don’t believe it knocked us down a seed line.

Losing to Wisconsin knocked us down a seed line.

For the stats guys like Torvik and KenPom (and their blind acolytes), losing to Chicago State was a disaster, while losing to Wisconsin was nothing. But, thankfully, seeds are less dependent on those "who cares who wins?" approaches.

I can tell you that in my ratings, the loss to Chicago State was about a 25 point underperformance.
The loss at Illinois was about a 22 point underperformance.
The win over Western Michigan was an 18 point underperformance.
The 2nd loss to Wisconsin (in the Big Ten tournament) was a 7 point underperformance.

To guess-timate the effect on Torvik and KenPom, that 25 point underperformance against Chicago State would cost Northwestern about 0.75 points in its rating (because those guys weight all games equally).

So that single game probably dropped NU about 5-6 places, compared to not playing anybody.

If you seeded strictly by KenPom, it cost us 1 or 2 seeds.

Thankfully, humans were able to discount that loss.

 

[FeralFelidae]

For the stats guys like Torvik and KenPom (and their blind acolytes), losing to Chicago State was a disaster, while losing to Wisconsin was nothing. But, thankfully, seeds are less dependent on those "who cares who wins?" approaches.

I can tell you that in my ratings, the loss to Chicago State was about a 25 point underperformance.
The loss at Illinois was about a 22 point underperformance.
The win over Western Michigan was an 18 point underperformance.
The 2nd loss to Wisconsin (in the Big Ten tournament) was a 7 point underperformance.

To guess-timate the effect on Torvik and KenPom, that 25 point underperformance against Chicago State would cost Northwestern about 0.75 points in its rating (because those guys weight all games equally).

So that single game probably dropped NU about 5-6 places, compared to not playing anybody.

If you seeded strictly by KenPom, it cost us 1 or 2 seeds.

Thankfully, humans were able to discount that loss.

I think all of NU's injuries cost them a couple of seeds down the stretch. I think we actually were the 2nd-best team in the conference before losing 2 starters for the rest of the season.

 

[Secho99]

To guess-timate the effect on Torvik and KenPom, that 25 point underperformance against Chicago State would cost Northwestern about 0.75 points in its rating (because those guys weight all games equally).

One of Torvik's differentiators is that he does not weight all games equally. All games in the last 40 days count 100%, then they "degrade" by 1% each day to a maximum of 40 days (so all games more than 80 days old are weighted at 60%).

He then discounts blowouts between mismatched teams by giving the game a lower weighting based on the margin of victory and the difference in rating, and he also omits data from "garbage time."

I think all of this represents the majority of the difference between his rankings and KenPom.

So that single game probably dropped NU about 5-6 places, compared to not playing anybody.

If you seeded strictly by KenPom, it cost us 1 or 2 seeds.

Torvik has a feature that allows you to look at a team's schedule and then change the results of games or drop games completely from the schedule so you can see what-if scenarios for tournament seeding.

It's even worse than you think, dropping the CSU game from our schedule improved our ranking by 8 spots (2 seed lines).

Thankfully, humans were able to discount that loss.

Yup.

 

[Just Gary]

I also would like to see more road games against top 100 schools. Winning those always boost the rankings while losses usually don’t hurt if they are close. I just think when your OOC SOS is 300+, it puts all the pressure on having to finish in the top 3-4 in the B1G. Michigan State would not have made the tournament if their OOC schedule was ranked 400+. It’s just time we start playing better teams early.

 

[SmellyCat]

I also would like to see more road games against top 100 schools. Winning those always boost the rankings while losses usually don’t hurt if they are close. I just think when your OOC SOS is 300+, it puts all the pressure on having to finish in the top 3-4 in the B1G. Michigan State would not have made the tournament if their OOC schedule was ranked 400+. It’s just time we start playing better teams early.

I know it was not a road game, but that win over Dayton in November was a gift that kept giving all year long. I would love to see NU get some more tests in November and December. No, I don't necessarily want a schedule of Gonzaga, Kansas, and Duke in the first couple of weeks, but maybe a few decent teams from decent conferences just to keep the team sharp and bump up the schedule.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

One of Torvik's differentiators is that he does not weight all games equally. All games in the last 40 days count 100%, then they "degrade" by 1% each day to a maximum of 40 days (so all games more than 80 days old are weighted at 60%).

He then discounts blowouts between mismatched teams by giving the game a lower weighting based on the margin of victory and the difference in rating, and he also omits data from "garbage time."

I think all of this represents the majority of the difference between his rankings and KenPom.



Torvik has a feature that allows you to look at a team's schedule and then change the results of games or drop games completely from the schedule so you can see what-if scenarios for tournament seeding.

It's even worse than you think, dropping the CSU game from our schedule improved our ranking by 8 spots (2 seed lines).



Yup.

Thanks for the thoughtful response!

I didn't know Torvik put those changes in.
(Fading out the weight of a game based on the calendar, lowering effect of weird outcomes in mismatches)
I'm gonna take a victory lap on that. My ratings have always had that, as well as other logical improvements.
But, as far as I know, he's still focused on "efficiencies" so hopefully he comes around.
He is a great collaborative resource and one hell of a data presenter. Ken Pomeroy? Not so much.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I also would like to see more road games against top 100 schools. Winning those always boost the rankings while losses usually don’t hurt if they are close. I just think when your OOC SOS is 300+, it puts all the pressure on having to finish in the top 3-4 in the B1G. Michigan State would not have made the tournament if their OOC schedule was ranked 400+. It’s just time we start playing better teams early.

Scheduling patsies is just a tendency from the bygone days when going 14-0 in non-conference made your overall record look good. Its just a bad habit. You want some of those to experiment with your roster, but the new over-reliance on KenPom makes that sort of thing self-defeating. If you don't blow those teams out, your team sucks.

Teams would be better off playing "exhibitions." to work on their lineups.

 

[NURoseBowl]

If the CSU loss knocked us down a seed line, it put us in the path of the UConn machine when we otherwise might have gotten a more manageable 2-seed.

One of these years we need to hit the 6 line. Then it wouldn't take a big upset to make the Sweet Sixteen.

 

[Deeringfish]

Scheduling patsies is just a tendency from the bygone days when going 14-0 in non-conference made your overall record look good. Its just a bad habit. You want some of those to experiment with your roster, but the new over-reliance on KenPom makes that sort of thing self-defeating. If you don't blow those teams out, your team sucks.

Teams would be better off playing "exhibitions." to work on their lineups.

How many exhibitions are allowed?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

How many exhibitions are allowed?

Thats a good question. I don't know.
There is probably a limit on paper, like 2, but the NCAA is toothless at this point.
Just do whatever you want.

I mean, come on now, everybody wants the 4 point shot from midcourt or beyond.

 

[macarthur31]

I did a google search on "How NCAA Basketball Teams Schedule Nonconference Games." What I gathered was that there were more reddit/quora posts that were asking the question, and not nearly as many offering authoritative answers on it. I found two articles/blogs on it: "The Science of Scheduling", while 5 years old, explores some angles that I hadn't given much thought - such as the factor of playing road games where upperclassmen's hometowns. Then there's B1G Network familiar face Mike DeCourcy's very recent Sporting News article which looks at the potential impact of superconferences on already chaotic non-con scheduling process.

What's clear to me is that non-con scheduling is more art than science. What we don't know is how much the final product differs from what Collins ideal schedule for his team that year. If we go by what was proposed earlier in the thread: a top 200 team, here's a sampling of mid-majors-

Jacksonville St (CUSA, kp 200)
East Carolina (American, kp 189)
Illinois St (MVC, kp 179)
Delaware (Coastal, kp 169)
Wright St (Horizon, kp 158)

Those look like good non-con opponents. The things to factor are: Would they want to play us? Can we afford them? Would they want to come to Evanston? Would they be willing to play just a "road" game, and not expect a home visit?

The Cats played just one true road game in the non-con last year - and that was DePaul. I envision that the 'Cats don't want to play true road games - Rutgers and Michigan last year were the only B1G teams that had 2 true road games. The rest only played 1 or none.

Of course, there are "neutral" site games (The 'Cats played in two of them Rhode Island and Mississippi St - Hall of Fame Tipoff - Uncasville, CT. Given our deep ties to recruiting the NEPSAC, I wonder if that's a strategic booking.) - and those are the more likely ways that a B1G team will NOT play at home - and every B1G team played in at least 2 of those.

Even Michigan State, who has the reputation of "anytime, anywhere" didn't play a true road game last year. They had two neutrals (Duke and Arizona), and a "Semi-Home" vs Baylor that was in Detroit.

So, while booking road games may be a path to juice the non-con schedule, I also imagine the 'Cats just won't do 'em outside of the "neutral site" opps is because it's alot to take guys on the road - not just cost, but also time out of the classroom (which is a thing for our program). They'll do enough of that during the B1G - no need to overload that in the tail end of fall quarter.

All this to say, unless the 'Cats become a glamour program in which the "made for TV' non-con tourneys will want them (which we're likely a few more Sweet 16s away from), I envision our non-con is going to remain soft. Especially with the advent of Oregon (kp 55), USC (kp 85), UCLA (kp98) and Washington (kp60) joining the B1G regular season in '25.

 

[Just Gary]

I did a google search on "How NCAA Basketball Teams Schedule Nonconference Games." What I gathered was that there were more reddit/quora posts that were asking the question, and not nearly as many offering authoritative answers on it. I found two articles/blogs on it: "The Science of Scheduling", while 5 years old, explores some angles that I hadn't given much thought - such as the factor of playing road games where upperclassmen's hometowns. Then there's B1G Network familiar face Mike DeCourcy's very recent Sporting News article which looks at the potential impact of superconferences on already chaotic non-con scheduling process.

What's clear to me is that non-con scheduling is more art than science. What we don't know is how much the final product differs from what Collins ideal schedule for his team that year. If we go by what was proposed earlier in the thread: a top 200 team, here's a sampling of mid-majors-

Jacksonville St (CUSA, kp 200)
East Carolina (American, kp 189)
Illinois St (MVC, kp 179)
Delaware (Coastal, kp 169)
Wright St (Horizon, kp 158)

Those look like good non-con opponents. The things to factor are: Would they want to play us? Can we afford them? Would they want to come to Evanston? Would they be willing to play just a "road" game, and not expect a home visit?

The Cats played just one true road game in the non-con last year - and that was DePaul. I envision that the 'Cats don't want to play true road games - Rutgers and Michigan last year were the only B1G teams that had 2 true road games. The rest only played 1 or none.

Of course, there are "neutral" site games (The 'Cats played in two of them Rhode Island and Mississippi St - Hall of Fame Tipoff - Uncasville, CT. Given our deep ties to recruiting the NEPSAC, I wonder if that's a strategic booking.) - and those are the more likely ways that a B1G team will NOT play at home - and every B1G team played in at least 2 of those.

Even Michigan State, who has the reputation of "anytime, anywhere" didn't play a true road game last year. They had two neutrals (Duke and Arizona), and a "Semi-Home" vs Baylor that was in Detroit.

So, while booking road games may be a path to juice the non-con schedule, I also imagine the 'Cats just won't do 'em outside of the "neutral site" opps is because it's alot to take guys on the road - not just cost, but also time out of the classroom (which is a thing for our program). They'll do enough of that during the B1G - no need to overload that in the tail end of fall quarter.

All this to say, unless the 'Cats become a glamour program in which the "made for TV' non-con tourneys will want them (which we're likely a few more Sweet 16s away from), I envision our non-con is going to remain soft. Especially with the advent of Oregon (kp 55), USC (kp 85), UCLA (kp98) and Washington (kp60) joining the B1G regular season in '25.

Thanks for that. I do remember one year we played at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and they were so excited to have B1G school visit their campus. Unfortunately the game was not televised. I just want a non-con schedule that is not a negative when it comes to deciding if we should make the tourney.

 

[Deeringfish]

Thanks for that. I do remember one year we played at Texas A&M Corpus Christi and they were so excited to have B1G school visit their campus. Unfortunately the game was not televised. I just want a non-con schedule that is not a negative when it comes to deciding if we should make the tourney.

Just win Baby!