Winning football: Third/Fourth downs, turnovers, explosion plays

[NUCat320]

I don’t have the stats, of course, but I’ve believed for about a decade that winning two out of the three categories above means a victory.

For so long, NU eschewed even trying for the big play. This meant that the defense needed to take the ball away, and especially that NU needed to keep the ball on third down. Or fourth down. And it’s no coincidence that NU’s most consistent success came when NU got aggressive on fourth down.

NU was bad on third downs today — only 3 of 12. NU had only 9 g-d first downs to Maryland’s 25.

But, Kirtz had two deep deep catches and Henning another, while Maryland eked out three, including one after the game was decided.

It’s so nice to have a head coach and an OC that seek to move the ball through deep completions. It’s on tape now, and it’ll lead to more underneath room, more scrambling room, and hopefully — eventually? — some room to run. Take the top off the defense and suddenly you’ve got space underneath. It’ll be beautiful.

(Aside: Komolafe had been in the doghouse since he lost a fumble early on. He provided a spark that I’d hoped to see all season tonight.)


What a satisfying win.

 

[EvanstonCat]

I don’t have the stats, of course, but I’ve believed for about a decade that winning two out of the three categories above means a victory.

For so long, NU eschewed even trying for the big play. This meant that the defense needed to take the ball away, and especially that NU needed to keep the ball on third down. Or fourth down. And it’s no coincidence that NU’s most consistent success came when NU got aggressive on fourth down.

NU was bad on third downs today — only 3 of 12. NU had only 9 g-d first downs to Maryland’s 25.

But, Kirtz had two deep deep catches and Henning another, while Maryland eked out three, including one after the game was decided.

It’s so nice to have a head coach and an OC that seek to move the ball through deep completions. It’s on tape now, and it’ll lead to more underneath room, more scrambling room, and hopefully — eventually? — some room to run. Take the top off the defense and suddenly you’ve got space underneath. It’ll be beautiful.

(Aside: Komolafe had been in the doghouse since he lost a fumble early on. He provided a spark that I’d hoped to see all season tonight.)


What a satisfying win.

This. I don’t think we can or should live and die on relying solely on the D. The O is still mediocre, but exactly your point - we took shots, we got some explosive plays, and we were able to score when given the chance.

Make no mistake though, without a +4 TO margin including a scoop and score, it’s doubtful we win. The O showed something, but still needs to improve. 3/12 on 3rd down conversions and 9 total first downs ain’t going to win many ball games. Glad this was one of them.

 

[Katatonic]

The other way to win is doing what Vandy did to Bama last week.

Ball control and converting a high no of 3rd downs by making them manageable (made easier by having a QB who can extend passing plays with his legs or get the 1st down himself) and not consistently being in 3rd and long.

Vandy only punted on 2 drives and neither was 3 and out (something that happened all too frequently for the Cats over the past decade).

But the thing is, in order to run that kind of "complementary O" need a decent O-line and good backs.

But even then, an opposing D can sell out to stop the run, so need a plan B (explosive plays down field).

The problem with Fitz Turtle ball is that Pat usually wasn't willing to let the O loose until they were already behind by 3 scores, which created the very game environment that Fitz wanted to avoid - an environment conducive to having turnovers.

 

[freewillie07]

This. I don’t think we can or should live and die on relying solely on the D. The O is still mediocre, but exactly your point - we took shots, we got some explosive plays, and we were able to score when given the chance.

Make no mistake though, without a +4 TO margin including a scoop and score, it’s doubtful we win. The O showed something, but still needs to improve. 3/12 on 3rd down conversions and 9 total first downs ain’t going to win many ball games. Glad this was one of them.

We did not need +4 in turnovers to win.

To win by 27? Sure.

But the sccop and score was revenge for the BS no-safety and put us up 24-10. By that point I was pretty darn comfortable the Cats would pull it out. Rest of the TOs were just Maryland being demoralized.

 

[NUCat320]

The other way to win is doing what Vandy did to Bama last week.

Ball control and converting a high no of 3rd downs by making them manageable (made easier by having a QB who can extend passing plays with his legs or get the 1st down himself) and not consistently being in 3rd and long.

Vandy only punted on 2 drives and neither was 3 and out (something that happened all too frequently for the Cats over the past decade).

But the thing is, in order to run that kind of "complementary O" need a decent O-line and good backs.

But even then, an opposing D can sell out to stop the run, so need a plan B (explosive plays down field).

The problem with Fitz Turtle ball is that Pat usually wasn't willing to let the O loose until they were already behind by 3 scores, which created the very game environment that Fitz wanted to avoid - an environment conducive to having turnovers.

I didn’t see the Vandy game, but the stats tell me that Vandy slightly outdid Bama on third downs (12-18 to 3-6) and won the turnover battle (2-0). (Based on third down attempts, Bama obviously won the ‘big play’ game.)

Mostly, I don’t think there’s much correlation between time of possession and winning football, even though that *was* football orthodoxy for a long time. Ya gotta do something with the ball too.

There’s always noise and correlation/causation whatevers, but the relationship usually holds.

 

[Figrating]

I was hoping our new OC Coach Lujan would bring a system that would instantly make the NU O a level better. Something like Bill Walsh did with the "West Coast Offense" or like Randy Walker did with the spread at NU. Not happening. Instead we're paying dues while the team is learning how to play together in the new system. Instead of "instant" we're getting "slowly, slowly", but there's little doubt the NU O is improving. Lausch is improving so fast you can see it game by game.

Completed - not just tried - but COMPLETED SEVERAL deep passes. Henning dropped a huge one, too. Future opponents will take note and no longer presume NU is still stuck in Fitzball and get away with it. Should take some heat off the OL, who are getting torn up. (Remember when JJTBC played for NU and it didn't matter?)

Much was being made of the fact that NU had been losing every game they traveled by plane to play. Nice to break out of that rut.

Is NU following the pattern of last season? Looks like it, but they face a tougher schedule this season.

GO CATS!

 

[FanatiCat]

I was hoping our new OC Coach Lujan would bring a system that would instantly make the NU O a level better. Something like Bill Walsh did with the "West Coast Offense" or like Randy Walker did with the spread at NU. Not happening. Instead we're paying dues while the team is learning how to play together in the new system. Instead of "instant" we're getting "slowly, slowly", but there's little doubt the NU O is improving. Lausch is improving so fast you can see it game by game.

Completed - not just tried - but COMPLETED SEVERAL deep passes. Henning dropped a huge one, too. Future opponents will take note and no longer presume NU is still stuck in Fitzball and get away with it. Should take some heat off the OL, who are getting torn up. (Remember when JJTBC played for NU and it didn't matter?)

Much was being made of the fact that NU had been losing every game they traveled by plane to play. Nice to break out of that rut.

Is NU following the pattern of last season? Looks like it, but they face a tougher schedule this season.

GO CATS!

Randy Walker and Kevin Wilson was over a generation of college football ago (much as I hate to age myself). The spread was much more of a revolution than anything you can come up with now - every defense expects to play spread, RPO teams.

In addition they had a roster of blue chip offensive talent, benefiting from Barnett’s post Rose/Citrus recruiting that was just primed for the spread scheme. The Fab 5 OL recruits, Heisman finalist DA2, Sam Simmons, and Kustok. Because of our deficiencies in recruiting skill positions in the latter PF years along with portal attrition (Tyus, Priebe come to mind), we have less depth and more developmental prospects.

If the portal and NIL existed in 1998, can you imagine how many of those guys we would’ve lost?

 

[Alaskawildkat]

But the sccop and score was revenge for the BS no-safety and put us up 24-10. By that point I was pretty darn comfortable the Cats would pull it out. Rest of the TOs were just Maryland being demoralized.

Exactly! That was my immediate come to mind comment on the in game Zoom chat after the scoop and score: "That makes up for the [denied] safety."