With Sanjay gone, what will be the score difference?

[Kat burglar]

Sanjay was great on defense, but not that productive on offense.

With Falzon and Rap probably taking his minutes, what do you think happens to the average offensive and defensive score?

My guess would be that we give up an extra 5 points a game on average, but score an extra 8 points a game for a net gain of 3.

Any other thoughts?

 

[Deeringfish]

Sanjay was great on defense, but not that productive on offense.

With Falzon and Rap probably taking his minutes, what do you think happens to the average offensive and defensive score?

My guess would be that we give up an extra 5 points a game on average, but score an extra 8 points a game for a net gain of 3.

Any other thoughts?

A net gain of three points per game would make us a very good team.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Sanjay had very good offball movement on offense. Good rebounder just not a great scorer. The only nervous part of me for next year is who replaces his defense. Sanjay, law, and Lindsey made our defense so deadly with their versatility. We not only struggled with losing the scoring aspect of Lindsey's game when he was sick but I really noticed it defensively as well. NU was built on tough D last year. I'm hoping and expecting for more of the same this year.

 

[Sec.112]

I'm going to attempt pull out a couple advanced stats to answer this question.

I don't know if everybody knows the stat, Win Shares - an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his offense and/or defense.

Sanjay's conference numbers ...

OffensiveWS - .7 (3rd on the team, pretty drastic drop after Pardon and BMac)
Defensive WS - .7 (4th on the team)
WS - 1.3 (4th on the team)

Let me offer Skelly's WS conference stats as a comparison ...

OffensiveWS - .1 (8th)
Defensive WS - .4 (6th)
WS - .5 (6th)

Let's also look at Falzon's freshman conference WSs ...

OffensiveWS - .7
Defensive WS - .4
WS - 1.1

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Falzon alone can replace Sanjay's WSs.

I think the players this question ignores are Law and Lindsey - one of each is just a tad behind Sanjay in each category. Both can bump up their numbers on both sides of the ball to make up the difference.

I'd vote that Law and Lindsey can improve enough to offset Sanjay's loss. Only a little is needed from both.

Also, let's not forget a slight improvement from Skelly.

 

[Kelly_32]

I would expect to see improvement from McIntosh on both ends of the floor, especially perimeter shooting.

 

[Deeringfish]

It sure seems like individually we could (maybe should) see some modest improvement in skill in at least 7 of the first 8 guys on the floor. That should add up to something pretty good. The wild card will be the chemistry and the toll playing and practicing at the alternative sites. Who knows maybe the guys will be excited to play there.

 

[NJCat]

It sure seems like individually we could (maybe should) see some modest improvement in skill in at least 7 of the first 8 guys on the floor. That should add up to something pretty good. The wild card will be the chemistry and the toll playing and practicing at the alternative sites. Who knows maybe the guys will be excited to play there.

I don't think there will be any "toll" practicing at Blomquist. If anything, being on campus might be an advantage. But AA? Who knows.....

 

[ricko654321]

I'm going to attempt pull out a couple advanced stats to answer this question.

I don't know if everybody knows the stat, Win Shares - an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player due to his offense and/or defense.

Sanjay's conference numbers ...

OffensiveWS - .7 (3rd on the team, pretty drastic drop after Pardon and BMac)
Defensive WS - .7 (4th on the team)
WS - 1.3 (4th on the team)

Let me offer Skelly's WS conference stats as a comparison ...

OffensiveWS - .1 (8th)
Defensive WS - .4 (6th)
WS - .5 (6th)

Let's also look at Falzon's freshman conference WSs ...

OffensiveWS - .7
Defensive WS - .4
WS - 1.1

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Falzon alone can replace Sanjay's WSs.

I think the players this question ignores are Law and Lindsey - one of each is just a tad behind Sanjay in each category. Both can bump up their numbers on both sides of the ball to make up the difference.

I'd vote that Law and Lindsey can improve enough to offset Sanjay's loss. Only a little is needed from both.

Also, let's not forget a slight improvement from Skelly.

what source are you using for win shares here? just curious. also, Skelly could improve his WS numbers simply by playing more (though with Falzon and Rap coming back it's hard to see his minutes increasing significantly).

 

[Sec.112]

Basketball-reference.com.

Admittedly, I'm an advanced stats amateur, but there are a few statistical measurements that attempt to include more than personal production. Offensive/Defensive Rating (ORtg/DRtg) or BPM also seem like possibilities.

 

[ricko654321]

Basketball-reference.com.

Admittedly, I'm an advanced stats amateur, but there are a few statistical measurements that attempt to include more than personal production. Offensive/Defensive Rating (ORtg/DRtg) or BPM also seem like possibilities.

Yeah, BB ref (and its related sites) are useful. None of the advanced stats are perfect, but a good starting point. I think the offensive win shares probably overestimates Sanjay a bit bc it likes his efficiency shooting the ball (good shot selection Sanjay!) but doesn't appreciate that he would not be able to generate many of those looks without open space being created by others on the offense. On the other hand, many here might argue his defensive win shares should be higher - perhaps it could be underestimating the value of his versatility in switching matchups onto the opponent's best player at a variety of different positions.

 

[Sec.112]

I agree about Sanjay's statistical representation vs. the eye test on both sides of the ball. In the end, it's probably shades of gray with a pretty reasonable measurement.

Off topic, when you look at last year's numbers, the one that surprises me a bit is how valuable Pardon becomes in WS. It's BMac, Pardon and everybody else is generally interchangeable.

BMac and Pardon far out-distance everybody. BMac doesn't surprise me. Pardon as a strong numero uno among the regulars does surprise me.

 

[Kat burglar]

One other thought is that it was easier for opponents to lay off Sanjay and double up or get more help on Bmac, Law and Lindsey. Playing a full 5 on 5 maybe gives more room to those 3 and I Brown. Also, if Law gets more time to rest off the court, he will have more energy on the offensive side. For that matter, so will Bmac and Lindsey. (Of course, nothing against Sanjay. He did a great job. Just different skill sets and more depth going forward).

 

[ricko654321]

I agree about Sanjay's statistical representation vs. the eye test on both sides of the ball. In the end, it's probably shades of gray with a pretty reasonable measurement.

Off topic, when you look at last year's numbers, the one that surprises me a bit is how valuable Pardon becomes in WS. It's BMac, Pardon and everybody else is generally interchangeable.

BMac and Pardon far out-distance everybody. BMac doesn't surprise me. Pardon as a strong numero uno among the regulars does surprise me.

Yeah- for something like Win Shares I think the high FG% that Dererk shoots (on a lot of layups) helps a lot. Also his rebounding. I don't know if they provide Offensive / Defensive Rating for college, but that could be a slightly better indication of overall impact on the team when on the floor. That said, the sample size for BMac off the court was probably so small and skewed by types of situations (garbage time) so as not to be very robust as an on / off indicator.

 

[spartcat]

hmmm. One thing that seems to have been forgotten is that Law was usually given the assignment of guarding the opponent's top perimeter player, including Melo Trimble. Vic was easily our best defender. Sanjay was playing undersized power forward. He was a great role model but I expect the team to be better if our redshirts can stay healthy this year.

 

[JournCat]

If Falzon can shoot 35 percent from 3 or better, as long as he's even below-average on defense, there's almost no argument to be made here. Mac, Lindsey and Law will get better chances to drive and kick, and Pardon's already improving post game will only get better.

 

[NJCat]

If Falzon can shoot 35 percent from 3 or better, as long as he's even below-average on defense, there's almost no argument to be made here.

He shot 35.4% as a true Freshman. That will only get better as he matures.

 

[JournCat]

He shot 35.4% as a true Freshman. That will only get better as he matures.

Yeah, and on 178 attempts, which was behind only Tre (an unforgettable chucker who I miss watching, btw). It's reasonable to expect he'll approach 40 percent on slightly fewer shots this year. My concern is his lateral quickness coming off a knee injury and how that will affect his defense. Hopefully the coaches can get him to a place where he's not getting picked on every possession.

 

[GOUNUII]

Yeah, and on 178 attempts, which was behind only Tre (an unforgettable chucker who I miss watching, btw). It's reasonable to expect he'll approach 40 percent on slightly fewer shots this year. My concern is his lateral quickness coming off a knee injury and how that will affect his defense. Hopefully the coaches can get him to a place where he's not getting picked on every possession.

I don't follow advanced stats. But what excites me is the number of ways this team could be better this year. We won't hit on all of them, maybe not even half. But we only need a few to take the next step up the pecking order in college hoops. In no particular order:

1. Doubt is any athletes worst enemy. This team will play with little doubt and a ton of resiliency thanks to last year's experiences. Winning without Pardon and/or Lindsey at times. Beating Md. on the road when it mattered. Punching Gonzaga in the mouth. Great carryover value to this year. 90% likely.

2. Skelly has a breakout year. Maybe this is the year Gavin puts it all together. If I only get one breakout, I would use it on him. Would give us a tough to defend high low inside presence. Gives us better rebounding and defense and the Sonjay dirty work factor. Has all the physical tools. Will the mental light come on? 40% likely.

3. Falzon can come off the bench. We were pretty good last year when Tap was hitting 3s off the bench. Takes so much stress to score off Law, Lindsey and B-Mac. Opens everything up for those guys and Pardon to get better looks. Limits our exposure to any defensive/rebounding deficiencies he may have. Probably his best, most productive role. 40% likely.

4. Rap earns minutes. We'll need an extra big at some point in the season. And competition is good. Rap challenging for minutes and contributing when called on could net us 1 or 2 extra wins. 35% likely.

5. Brown and/or Ash and/or Gaines, or some combination thereof, earn CCC's confidence. How great would it be if B-Mac could play a few less minutes a game. Or we could add an effective 3 guard option to CCC's arsenal? 40% likely.

6. We get no. 2, which makes no. 3 60% likely, and we get no. 5. Holy shit. That's a top 10 team with the ability to make a run in the Tourney.

GOUNUII

 

[NJCat]

Yeah, and on 178 attempts, which was behind only Tre (an unforgettable chucker who I miss watching, btw). It's reasonable to expect he'll approach 40 percent on slightly fewer shots this year. My concern is his lateral quickness coming off a knee injury and how that will affect his defense. Hopefully the coaches can get him to a place where he's not getting picked on every possession.

I take your point about coming off the injury. But hitting >35% from 3 as a true Freshman isn't bad. For reference, the Baby Faced Assassin hit 34.4% of his 3's year 1, and grew into a player who hit 44% his final 2 years; Drewski 32.7%; Tap 27.8% (!!); and BMac 36.4% (although he really hasn't gotten any better, hitting just 31% last season).

 

[Kat burglar]

Think of how our opponents viewed us last year. Doubled up BMac when you can to shut him down. Put pressure on Lindsey and Law. Lay off Sanjay and Pardon to help the pressure on the other 3.
That won't happen this year. Imagine BMac's 3 pt percentage when he doesn't have one or two guys hanging on him and he's firing a desperation shot as the clock winds down. He will finally have driving room to get to the hoop or dish when someone comes over to help. Lindsey and Law same thing. Having an extra couple feet of distance between you and the defender who is late coming over to help makes shooting much easier.
It is amazing to think how good these guys were last year when teams could focus 4 defenders on those 3. Now it will be an even match. Bring it.

 

[NJCat]

Think of how our opponents viewed us last year. Doubled up BMac when you can to shut him down. Put pressure on Lindsey and Law. Lay off Sanjay and Pardon to help the pressure on the other 3.
That won't happen this year. Imagine BMac's 3 pt percentage when he doesn't have one or two guys hanging on him and he's firing a desperation shot as the clock winds down. He will finally have driving room to get to the hoop or dish when someone comes over to help. Lindsey and Law same thing. Having an extra couple feet of distance between you and the defender who is late coming over to help makes shooting much easier.
It is amazing to think how good these guys were last year when teams could focus 4 defenders on those 3. Now it will be an even match. Bring it.

Good points. Will be a major help if Isiah and Jordan can give BMac some rest. His shot will improve if he isn't worn out from playing >34 minutes/game. Even getting it down to ~30 mpg would help over the course of 35 games or so.

 

[ricko654321]

Sanjay was great on defense, but not that productive on offense.

With Falzon and Rap probably taking his minutes, what do you think happens to the average offensive and defensive score?

My guess would be that we give up an extra 5 points a game on average, but score an extra 8 points a game for a net gain of 3.

Any other thoughts?

I just wanted to circle back to the original question, which got lost in the shuffle. I think you are overestimating the difference a bit. We were an above average D team last year with Sanjay, and I still think we will be next year due to our athleticism, Vic as a versatile defender, and our team cohesion. Also the overall ppg I doubt would change drastically as I don't see Collins significantly changing philosophy.

My guess would be that overall as a team (not just due to Sanjay) our D might be ~1 pt per 70 ish possessions worse next year, and our O might be ~3 pts per 70 possessions better.

So if we scored 71.1 (13th in conf) and gave up 65.5 (2nd in conf, Wiscy at 62.4) last year, maybe that shifts to 74 and 66. Possibly more if we run up the score on bad OOC opponents. Keep in mind that a large part of those raw stats though is because we ran a slower pace than I think 11 of the other 13 B1G teams last year, which I don't expect to change.

 

[Medill90]

Yeah, and on 178 attempts, which was behind only Tre (an unforgettable chucker who I miss watching, btw). It's reasonable to expect he'll approach 40 percent on slightly fewer shots this year. My concern is his lateral quickness coming off a knee injury and how that will affect his defense. Hopefully the coaches can get him to a place where he's not getting picked on every possession.

It's pretty difficult to guard four solid perimeter shooters on the floor at the same time. BMac, Law, Scottie and Falzon are all solid. Falzon's presence may reduce the degree of difficulty on Law's and Lindsey's three point shots. When it's easier to get off a shot, the shooting percentage goes up.

I thought Sanjay did some nice things on offense. He passed to the cutting man extremely well, he flashed to the rim and converted a lot of timely lay ups. He really had the same sort of energy he showed on defense. I think what replaces him gives NU more height and more shooting. Everything else on offense is a wash, and we lose a bit on D.

 

[NJCat]

It's pretty difficult to guard four solid perimeter shooters on the floor at the same time. BMac, Law, Scottie and Falzon are all solid. Falzon's presence may reduce the degree of difficulty on Law's and Lindsey's three point shots. When it's easier to get off a shot, the shooting percentage goes up

Excellent point. And this will open things up for Dererk as well. The drive-and-dish from BMac to DP allows Pardon to either go to the hoop or kick it back out to a shooter. Plenty of options on offense for NU this season.

 

[Kat burglar]

It's pretty difficult to guard four solid perimeter shooters on the floor at the same time. BMac, Law, Scottie and Falzon are all solid.

It seemed like last year the lane was very clogged. BMac would drive and put up a floater because the rim was clogged. With 4 perimeter shooters there should be deeper penetration and easier dishes to DP or back out to the perimeter depending on who comes to help out.

Isiah Brown had some very good drives last year, but with the lane clogged and his height disadvantage it was difficult to get a good shot off. He should have more room this year for a pull up 10 footer or a dish to DP. He could be electrifying and could be the surprise player this year subbing for BMac.

Also, Law could be a different player this year. Yes he will spend most of his energy guarding the opponents best player, but his athleticism could see him attack the rim more this year. There are so many more options this year that the offense might look much more balanced and athletic.

Remember the games when Skelly was making threes and how it opened the floor. That could be the new format...

 

[freewillie07]

I don't follow advanced stats. But what excites me is the number of ways this team could be better this year. We won't hit on all of them, maybe not even half. But we only need a few to take the next step up the pecking order in college hoops. In no particular order:

1. Doubt is any athletes worst enemy. This team will play with little doubt and a ton of resiliency thanks to last year's experiences. Winning without Pardon and/or Lindsey at times. Beating Md. on the road when it mattered. Punching Gonzaga in the mouth. Great carryover value to this year. 90% likely.

2. Skelly has a breakout year. Maybe this is the year Gavin puts it all together. If I only get one breakout, I would use it on him. Would give us a tough to defend high low inside presence. Gives us better rebounding and defense and the Sonjay dirty work factor. Has all the physical tools. Will the mental light come on? 40% likely.

3. Falzon can come off the bench. We were pretty good last year when Tap was hitting 3s off the bench. Takes so much stress to score off Law, Lindsey and B-Mac. Opens everything up for those guys and Pardon to get better looks. Limits our exposure to any defensive/rebounding deficiencies he may have. Probably his best, most productive role. 40% likely.

4. Rap earns minutes. We'll need an extra big at some point in the season. And competition is good. Rap challenging for minutes and contributing when called on could net us 1 or 2 extra wins. 35% likely.

5. Brown and/or Ash and/or Gaines, or some combination thereof, earn CCC's confidence. How great would it be if B-Mac could play a few less minutes a game. Or we could add an effective 3 guard option to CCC's arsenal? 40% likely.

6. We get no. 2, which makes no. 3 60% likely, and we get no. 5. Holy shit. That's a top 10 team with the ability to make a run in the Tourney.

GOUNUII

I feel like Skelly would be better coming off the bench to provide some energy, while Falzon starts.

To the original question, if this team is fully healthy, they will more than make up for losing Sanjay. Call it +2 net differential overall. Another year of experience for everyone, plus adding three guys who were basically 4-star recruits in Falzon, Rap and Gaines. If the rumors about Ash kicking it up a notch are true, this team will be loaded.

 

[ricko654321]

It seemed like last year the lane was very clogged. BMac would drive and put up a floater because the rim was clogged. With 4 perimeter shooters there should be deeper penetration and easier dishes to DP or back out to the perimeter depending on who comes to help out.

Isiah Brown had some very good drives last year, but with the lane clogged and his height disadvantage it was difficult to get a good shot off. He should have more room this year for a pull up 10 footer or a dish to DP. He could be electrifying and could be the surprise player this year subbing for BMac.

Also, Law could be a different player this year. Yes he will spend most of his energy guarding the opponents best player, but his athleticism could see him attack the rim more this year. There are so many more options this year that the offense might look much more balanced and athletic.

Remember the games when Skelly was making threes and how it opened the floor. That could be the new format...

I mean let's be clear, this is most likely not going to change. Until or unless we develop GSW levels of ball and player movement, and outside shooting (not to mention the 3 pt line be a couple feet further away to create more space), the lane will always be clogged. Wisconsin and UVa literally designed a defense (pack line) around the concept of helping everything in the lane and then funneling back to the outside and rotating, one which has elements that have permeated into NU's defense and many other teams due to its success.

High-level teams (in the B1G in particular) are just too good at helping, collapsing, and rotating for the lane to open up wide just because you have good shooters on the outside. The best way to get buckets in the lane is have a truly dynamic playmaker and finisher around the basket - which BMac is pretty darned good, so hopefully he has a great senior year.

And I like Gavin a lot, but I don't remember too many games where he was making lots of 3s... I would guess that Sanjay's 3 pt % was higher than his last year...

 

[ricko654321]

I mean let's be clear, this is most likely not going to change. Until or unless we develop GSW levels of ball and player movement, and outside shooting (not to mention the 3 pt line be a couple feet further away to create more space), the lane will always be clogged. Wisconsin and UVa literally designed a defense (pack line) around the concept of helping everything in the lane and then funneling back to the outside and rotating, one which has elements that have permeated into NU's defense and many other teams due to its success.

High-level teams (in the B1G in particular) are just too good at helping, collapsing, and rotating for the lane to open up wide just because you have good shooters on the outside. The best way to get buckets in the lane is have a truly dynamic playmaker and finisher around the basket - which BMac is pretty darned good, so hopefully he has a great senior year.

And I like Gavin a lot, but I don't remember too many games where he was making lots of 3s... I would guess that Sanjay's 3 pt % was higher than his last year...

Ha it's exactly the same! 30% on the button. Sanjay 15/50, Gavin 18/60.

 

[Deeringfish]

Having read this thread. I predict we will be undefeated next season. It feels good to be the champion. Thank you everyone.

 

[Kat burglar]

I mean let's be clear, this is most likely not going to change. Until or unless we develop GSW levels of ball and player movement, and outside shooting (not to mention the 3 pt line be a couple feet further away to create more space), the lane will always be clogged. .

I guess I was thinking at the margin. Not that the lane will be open, but at the margin, whether defenders are cheating to the outside to respect shooters or cheating to the inside due to lack of respect. The difference might be only a foot or 2, or a half a second to close on someone, but in a game played at this speed, it could be the difference between blocking a shot, or having a good look at the basket versus forcing a bad shot.