How screwed is Cal? Are the ACC really considering them & Stanford

[CatManTrue]

Cal’s athletic department’s finances have been untenable for some time. They’re basically close to breaking even now with the current PAC-12 revenues.

When the conference dissolves… how screwed are they? Will they have to greatly reduce their athletic programs? Can their football program even survive?

Stanford can go independent and do fine, like Notre Dame or Army/Navy.

ASU & Utah will likely join Arizona & Colorado in the Big 12.

Oregon State & Washington State could go there or the MWC.

But the Cal Golden Bears have very few outs. Even @droski would agree: their speed can’t outrun bankruptcy.

 

[RhabdoWildcat]

Cal’s athletic department’s finances have been untenable for some time. They’re basically close to breaking even now with the current PAC-12 revenues.

When the conference dissolves… how screwed are they? Will they have to greatly reduce their athletic programs? Can their football program even survive?

Stanford can go independent and do fine, like Notre Dame or Army/Navy.

ASU & Utah will likely join Arizona & Colorado in the Big 12.

Oregon State & Washington State could go there or the MWC.

But the Cal Golden Bears have very few outs. Even @droski would agree: their speed can’t outrun bankruptcy.

lololol

Where is Droski now?!

I don't want to gloat since I know NU's situation in the future may be precarious but right now is sure schadenfreud for that troll.

I haven't seen GoBigRed either recently. Guess those Cornell Bears aren't doing too hot either.

 

[jne381]

I don't know why you think an independent Stanford would be fine. They are not ND.

As for CAL football, if it isn't making money, there will not be funding for all the other programs.

I know the addition of either or both of those schools would be not be a net benefit for the Big Ten, but I still think they should have been brought in.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

I don't know why you think an independent Stanford would be fine. They are not ND.

As for CAL football, if it isn't making money, there will not be funding for all the other programs.

I know the addition of either or both of those schools would be not be a net benefit for the Big Ten, but I still think they should have been brought in.

I think they will eventually join the B1G.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I don't know why you think an independent Stanford would be fine. They are not ND.

As for CAL football, if it isn't making money, there will not be funding for all the other programs.

I know the addition of either or both of those schools would be not be a net benefit for the Big Ten, but I still think they should have been brought in.

Agreed. SU does very well in non-revenue sports, but they would struggle to find revenue to support them without a major conference deal.

 

[CatManTrue]

I think they will eventually join the B1G.

Why?

 

[zeek55]

I think they will eventually join the B1G.

I'm with you on that, I think Stanford eventually joins the Big Ten when Notre Dame does. Those 2 are probably the last pair the Big Ten will ever admit.

Miami, UNC or UVA first though.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

I'm with you on that, I think Stanford eventually joins the Big Ten when Notre Dame does. Those 2 are probably the last pair the Big Ten will ever admit.

Miami, UNC or UVA first though.

What about FSU? They seem to be the most intent on joining. Personally, I think it’s unlikely. Can’t see just one ACC school joining.

 

[EvanstonCat]

What about FSU? They seem to be the most intent on joining. Personally, I think it’s unlikely. Can’t see just one ACC school joining.

Two scenarios I see for the remaining 2 spots (assuming the magic number is 20):

Stanford invited to pull in Notre Dame.

Florida State and another ACC school most likely North Carolina, but possibly Clemson.

Cal is screwed. And I say that sadly as they had just become my new team to root for as Northwestern takes a break for the next decade or so given the fallout, since my son will be attending this fall.

 

[zeek55]

What about FSU? They seem to be the most intent on joining. Personally, I think it’s unlikely. Can’t see just one ACC school joining.

The problem with FSU right now is the only way they could break the ACC GOR is some kind of PE deal where some outside private investor puts in $300-400 million to buyout their GOR penalty + exit fee and then takes a portion of their conference distribution for 20-30 years.

But I doubt Big Ten or SEC want to be involved in that. It probably doesn't even really make sense for FSU when you think about it. Losing 20-30% of your conference distribution for 20-30 years just to get out 10 years early? That seems foolish. Just bear with it for 10-12 years then leave with Clemson, Miami, UNC, UVA, etc.

Most likely everything out of FSU is saber rattling; schools go quiet when they move. All of FSU's announcements the past week are to placate their fans who are angry that all these other programs are moving but they aren't.

So yeah, I'm in the camp that they're not leaving until 2034-2036.

As far as where they go, I think they end up in the SEC; their fans want that, harder to sell their fans on Big Ten if SEC is available. I think Big Ten will take Miami.

UNC is the big wildcard to me.

 

[jne381]

Based on how FSU is acting in their current conference, I would avoid them at all costs. Sooner or later they are going to turn on the next conference that they are a part of and cause issues.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Two scenarios I see for the remaining 2 spots (assuming the magic number is 20):

Stanford invited to pull in Notre Dame.

Florida State and another ACC school most likely North Carolina, but possibly Clemson.

Cal is screwed. And I say that sadly as they had just become my new team to root for as Northwestern takes a break for the next decade or so given the fallout, since my son will be attending this fall.

Don’t give up on Cal just yet. Still think Stanford and Cal find their way into the B1G. Nice to have a bit more academic clout and a couple more teams for the big boys to beat up on.

 

[WestCoastWildcat]

Don’t give up on Cal just yet. Still think Stanford and Cal find their way into the B1G. Nice to have a bit more academic clout and a couple more teams for the big boys to beat up on.

Don’t underestimate pressure from the UC board of regents to include Cal moving over with UCLA. There will be pressure on UCLA to advocate inclusion of Cal. The regents were not too happy they were bypassed on the decision by UCLA to leave the PAC12 w/o their endorsement. I’m not a fan of Cal but I agree they will find their way in at some point.

Looks like my San Diego State Aztecs will be stuck in the Mountain West, which may pick up remnants of an imploded Pac12- teams like Oregon State and WSU that will struggle to find a home post PAC12.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Don’t underestimate pressure from the UC board of regents to include Cal moving over with UCLA. There will be pressure on UCLA to advocate inclusion of Cal. The regents were not too happy they were bypassed on the decision by UCLA to leave the PAC12 w/o their endorsement. I’m not a fan of Cal but I agree they will find their way in at some point.

Looks like my San Diego State Aztecs will be stuck in the Mountain West, which may pick up remnants of an imploded Pac12- teams like Oregon State and WSU that will struggle to find a home post PAC12.

Hard to image OSU and WSU landing anywhere other than the Mountain West. Not sure it’s realistic for the PAC12 to lure 8 other schools in to try and save the conference.

 

[NUChicago]

Hard to image OSU and WSU landing anywhere other than the Mountain West. Not sure it’s realistic for the PAC12 to lure 8 other schools in to try and save the conference.

Man, who would of thought the BIG12 would outlive the PAC12. Leadership matters and bad leadership put the PAC12 in this situation. In theory OSU and WSU could go to BIG12, but I agree on the Mountain West.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Don’t underestimate pressure from the UC board of regents to include Cal moving over with UCLA. There will be pressure on UCLA to advocate inclusion of Cal. The regents were not too happy they were bypassed on the decision by UCLA to leave the PAC12 w/o their endorsement. I’m not a fan of Cal but I agree they will find their way in at some point.

Looks like my San Diego State Aztecs will be stuck in the Mountain West, which may pick up remnants of an imploded Pac12- teams like Oregon State and WSU that will struggle to find a home post PAC12.

From an athletic standpoint, what does Cal bring to the party? This is about eyeballs on the idiot box.

 

[CatManTrue]

Agreed. SU does very well in non-revenue sports, but they would struggle to find revenue to support them without a major conference deal.

So would you say that Cal & Stanford are equally screwed?

I think Cal is way more screwed. They don’t have Stanford’s national brand or any recent success in football or basketball to point to. Plus, they’ve already had major financial issues for years.

Supposedly Notre Dame is more open to negotiations.

If ND insists Stanford comes with them and the California BoR insists we take Cal with UCLA… does the B1G oblige both?

I’d rather have ND & Stanford than UCLA & Cal, personally.

 

[curdog]

Don’t underestimate pressure from the UC board of regents to include Cal moving over with UCLA. There will be pressure on UCLA to advocate inclusion of Cal. The regents were not too happy they were bypassed on the decision by UCLA to leave the PAC12 w/o their endorsement. I’m not a fan of Cal but I agree they will find their way in at some point.

Looks like my San Diego State Aztecs will be stuck in the Mountain West, which may pick up remnants of an imploded Pac12- teams like Oregon State and WSU that will struggle to find a home post PAC12.

Who would the regents pressure? The Big? With what leverage? Big can tell the regents to Lund sand.

For me, Stanford being left out in the cold can only help NU. If going head to head with Stanford was usually a loser before, it certainly makes it easier moving forward

 

[corbi296]

 

[pawildcat]

Man, who would of thought the BIG12 would outlive the PAC12. Leadership matters and bad leadership put the PAC12 in this situation. In theory OSU and WSU could go to BIG12, but I agree on the Mountain West.

Yes, Oregon State and Washington State are the ones really trashed by the death of the Pac-12. They'll likely wend up in the Mountain West or a similar landing spot.

 

[CatManTrue]

More evidence of Cal’s level of screwedness:

 

[CatManTrue]

From an athletic standpoint, what does Cal bring to the party? This is about eyeballs on the idiot box.

Check this website

Pac-4: Conference of Champions

The Pac-4 is the premier tri-state West Coast college football conference.

pac-4.com

 

[LACatFan]

So would you say that Cal & Stanford are equally screwed?

I think Cal is way more screwed. They don’t have Stanford’s national brand or any recent success in football or basketball to point to. Plus, they’ve already had major financial issues for years.

Supposedly Notre Dame is more open to negotiations.

If ND insists Stanford comes with them and the California BoR insists we take Cal with UCLA… does the B1G oblige both?

I’d rather have ND & Stanford than UCLA & Cal, personally.

F the insufferable Domers. They'll be the drama queen's of the B1G if admitted. Even Nebraska fans will face-palm.

And Cal's 'brand' is far bigger nationally (and internationally) than many schools in the B1G, if that's an attribute to differentiate on. UC Berkeley and Stanford are long term rivals, and both bring much to the table. They've fielded competitive football and basketball programs before and will again, especially with the resources (i.e. $$, reach, etc.) that the B1G can bring. Add them both and take the B1G to 20.

 

[CatManTrue]

This is a 10.5 on the LOL scale:

Sources: ACC plans calls to discuss Cal, Stanford

ACC leaders are set to begin exploratory discussions on the potential additions of California and Stanford to the conference, sources told ESPN's Pete Thamel on Monday, but the scheduled calls are in the embryonic stages at the point.

www.espn.com

😂

 

[WestCoastWildcat]

Yes, Oregon State and Washington State are the ones really trashed by the death of the Pac-12. They'll likely wend up in the Mountain West or a similar landing spot.

It’s somewhat sad to say but the addition of Oregon St. & Washington St. would definitely be a plus for the Mountain West. Looks like there is no escape for my SDSU from the MW.

 

[Eurocat]

More evidence of Cal’s level of screwedness:

Wait, wut? Cal has an athletic debt of half a BILLION dollars? And what did San Diego State spend their money on? This seems hard to believe. How was this calculated, what is the source?

 

[FanatiCat]

Wait, wut? Cal has an athletic debt of half a BILLION dollars? And what did San Diego State spend their money on? This seems hard to believe. How was this calculated, what is the source?

A link would be good. How are Mich and OSU in the top 10 for debt with all the revenue they generate?

 

[eastbaycat99]

Wait, wut? Cal has an athletic debt of half a BILLION dollars? And what did San Diego State spend their money on? This seems hard to believe. How was this calculated, what is the source?

Cal athletic debt is largely from their stadium rebuild 10+ years ago. It incurred $445 million in debt for the project. The funding scheme assumed close to sellout crowds and substantial seat license revenue. The last 8 years they have had 1/3 or more of the stadium empty on game day, and very few seat licenses were sold.

 

[jne381]

Wait, wut? Cal has an athletic debt of half a BILLION dollars? And what did San Diego State spend their money on? This seems hard to believe. How was this calculated, what is the source?

I believe SDSU just built a new stadium.

 

[dillonpgp]

A link would be good. How are Mich and OSU in the top 10 for debt with all the revenue they generate?

Because each university borrowed money when interest rates were incredibly low to fund new construction and renovations.

For instance, Michigan’s new sideline structures (purely premium seating and game day operations) increased use of the stadium to year around and debt service allowed the project to be paid off over time instead of insisting that most money be in hand before shovels hit dirt.

 

[dillonpgp]

I think they (cal and Stanford)will eventually join the B1G.

First let me state two facts. The Big Ten is now led by TV executives. Decisions about expansion will be made with TV (football, foremost) considerations first and foremost.

That being said, B 10 membership is also comprised of individual school presidents and enough of them can be coddled together to extend such an invitation.

Cal and Stanford add nothing to TV ratings. Think of Indiana. Indiana playing a really good Ohio State team will draw 3-5 million viewers. That same Indiana team playing Minnesota will draw 250,000. Tony Petitti is going to seek to add more Ohio States, not Indianas.

Adding either of these two schools (and diluting the payout) causes Ohio State to start demanding weighted shares of revenue distribution. That ends poorly in one of two ways. Sometimes one is served by shutting up and being thankful for the bounty you have instead of becoming Oregon State.

 

[pawildcat]

Talk about logistical challenges. Many commentators have pointed out the scheduling problems adding four West Coast teams brings to the B1G. Any of those would be multiplied in an ACC that added two California teams. Every ACC school other than Notre Dame and Louisville is located in the extreme Eastern region of the country. Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Wisconsin, etc., are a long way from California, but they're a lot closer than Boston College, Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, etc. And Cal and Stanford would only have themselves to play out West.

 

[WestCoastWildcat]

I believe SDSU just built a new stadium.

Yes, SDSU bought the entire site of the former Qualcomm Stadium. They tore down the old one and have built a smaller stadium at a different location on site and also included some mitigations to deal with the periodic flooding in Mission Valley. Years ago the old stadium had inches of water on the field just a few days prior to a Holiday Bowl game. It took a lot of effort to pump the water out and prepare the field for the game. Now the Holiday Bowl is played at Petco Park downtown. The Padres spent a few million to adjust the stadium and field for the Holiday Bowl game to be played there. In prior years it was a mini Rose Bowl with BigTen vs PAC12. With the demise of the PAC12 it will be interesting to see what happens next. There is a major lawsuit pending with UCLA and the PAC12 for UCLA bailing out hours before the bowl game because of Covid infections among their players. It will be interesting to see what happens to the lawsuit though I think UCLA is still on the hook.

It makes sense for the BigTen to return to the Holiday Bowl as a participant, this time facing a Big12 opponent. It’s definitely a brave new world in college sports with the considation of conferences.

I could see the BigTen evolving to an upper and lower tier type league as a possibility. The future of NU football competitiveness is such a huge question mark at this point but given our lackluster performance the past few years I’m hoping the changes might ultimately bring new life to the program.

I also realize the program could continue to sink under the weight of what has occurred under tepid leadership at all levels of NU. The program is defintely at a longtem tipping point.

 

[Eurocat]

We have other teams too. Our volleyball players, tennis players, swimmers, etc. are going to be flying far and wide now. No longer can we take a bus to Wisky, Purdue, Illinois, maybe Indiana, now it's gonna be hello OHare.

 

[FeralFelidae]

And what did San Diego State spend their money on?

Well, they made the NCAAB finals, so they have something to show for it, at least.

 

[FeralFelidae]

It’s somewhat sad to say but the addition of Oregon St. & Washington St. would definitely be a plus for the Mountain West. Looks like there is no escape for my SDSU from the MW.

Until the PAC gets kicked out of the Power 5, it makes sense for them to poach the best teams from the MWC and maybe the AAC. The MWC and the AAC won't be given P5 status, but maybe the PAC can hold it together with the remaining four plus Boise St., SDSU, UNLV, CSU, and maybe Air Force and/or SMU.

I'm surprised nobody has grabbed Memphis, although they would be quite a trek from the "Pacific" region. But being on the other side of the country seems to be better for TV contracts, so maybe that would be a plus.

 

[Eurocat]

True, true...

 

[Eurocat]

Until the PAC gets kicked out of the Power 5, it makes sense for them to poach the best teams from the MWC and maybe the AAC. The MWC and the AAC won't be given P5 status, but maybe the PAC can hold it together with the remaining four plus Boise St., SDSU, UNLV, CSU, and maybe Air Force and/or SMU.

I'm surprised nobody has grabbed Memphis, although they would be quite a trek from the "Pacific" region. But being on the other side of the country seems to be better for TV contracts, so maybe that would be a plus.

Fresno State would also make sense and they have had some good teams in the past decade or so.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Fresno State would also make sense and they have had some good teams in the past decade or so.

Good point.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Wait, wut? Cal has an athletic debt of half a BILLION dollars? And what did San Diego State spend their money on? This seems hard to believe. How was this calculated, what is the source?

First let me state two facts. The Big Ten is now led by TV executives. Decisions about expansion will be made with TV (football, foremost) considerations first and foremost.

That being said, B 10 membership is also comprised of individual school presidents and enough of them can be coddled together to extend such an invitation.

Cal and Stanford add nothing to TV ratings. Think of Indiana. Indiana playing a really good Ohio State team will draw 3-5 million viewers. That same Indiana team playing Minnesota will draw 250,000. Tony Petitti is going to seek to add more Ohio States, not Indianas.

Adding either of these two schools (and diluting the payout) causes Ohio State to start demanding weighted shares of revenue distribution. That ends poorly in one of two ways. Sometimes one is served by shutting up and being thankful for the bounty you have instead of becoming Oregon State.

I thought the Bay Area was a fairly significant tv market. I guess not.