When do we get excited?

[SmellyCat]

I know yesterday was a bit lackluster (but still a win!), but NU now has the second-best overall record in the Big Ten, one conference win already in its pocket, and winnable games coming up.

Meanwhile, some of the bracketologists are already putting NU in the tourney or in the "first four out," etc. sections. They seem like, based on what we've seen so far, around 50-50 chances of getting in. Obviously a lot of basketball - including most of NU's toughest games - to be played, but with the 2022 portion of the schedule done with, I'm starting to get excited.

If you prefer not to be excited yet, that's fine by me. I know all the reasons not to get my hopes up yet - I am an NU fan, after all - but...it's getting interesting.

Meanwhile, here's the Bracket Matrix, which keeps track of a lot of bracketologists. Some have NU as high as a nine seed!

 

[phatcat]

I know yesterday was a bit lackluster (but still a win!), but NU now has the second-best overall record in the Big Ten, one conference win already in its pocket, and winnable games coming up.

Meanwhile, some of the bracketologists are already putting NU in the tourney or in the "first four out," etc. sections. They seem like, based on what we've seen so far, around 50-50 chances of getting in. Obviously a lot of basketball - including most of NU's toughest games - to be played, but with the 2022 portion of the schedule done with, I'm starting to get excited.

If you prefer not to be excited yet, that's fine by me. I know all the reasons not to get my hopes up yet - I am an NU fan, after all - but...it's getting interesting.

Meanwhile, here's the Bracket Matrix, which keeps track of a lot of bracketologists. Some have NU as high as a nine seed!

I'm enjoying this, but I'm like an abused child at the amusement park. Always cringing from the next blow. Too much history. We were RANKED 19th in 2021.

I'll enjoy every win but have low expectations.

 

[NUcats92]

I’ll say I’m on a wait and see approach the defense is elite but the offense on the other hand isn’t that good and certain guys need to step the hell up especially Beran he’s been in the system now almost 5 years and can’t contribute 12 to 15 game? We’re going to need help on the offense that would require roper barnhizer and Nicholson to score every game. They cannot have donut holes and only contribute 3 to 4 points a game not gonna cut it.

 

[GatoLouco]

This was a season in which it was easy for me to be a fan. No expectations.

Now I am just going to go, at least for a few games, through the agony of being hopeful.

I still don't see how we will score over 60 in most games.

 

[phatcat]

I’ll say I’m on a wait and see approach the defense is elite but the offense on the other hand isn’t that good and certain guys need to step the hell up especially Beran he’s been in the system now almost 5 years and can’t contribute 12 to 15 game? We’re going to need help on the offense that would require roper barnhizer and Nicholson to score every game. They cannot have donut holes and only contribute 3 to 4 points a game not gonna cut it.

I feel like Beran is no better than 5th best player on the team, maybe worse. By end of season, Barnhizer and Roper may be contributing more. He's had one good game so far, against PVFAM.

 

[Max_Power]

I feel like Beran is no better than 5th best player on the team, maybe worse. By end of season, Barnhizer and Roper may be contributing more. He's had one good game so far, against PVFAM.

I want some of what you are smoking. Beran is probably the best or second best player on the team.

 

[GatoLouco]

Today the weather around me got to 58. It was -18 a few days ago.

Kind of like being an NU fan since the tournament. Feels like I am in an abusive relationship.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Like the effort, don’t like the overall talent level. I expect us to crash, but hope I am way off.

 

[rogerkim]

I’ll say I’m on a wait and see approach the defense is elite but the offense on the other hand isn’t that good and certain guys need to step the hell up especially Beran he’s been in the system now almost 5 years and can’t contribute 12 to 15 game? We’re going to need help on the offense that would require roper barnhizer and Nicholson to score every game. They cannot have donut holes and only contribute 3 to 4 points a game not gonna cut it.

This is an interesting point that has been a question/frustration over the past few seasons: players' inconsistency in production on the offense. While I understand that each game is different and may result in highlighting different players on the offense side depending on the opponent, the inconsistency in the contributions of certain players on our roster is puzzling at the least and maddening at the worst. I also get that players may have a hot or cold night on occasion, but the wide variances in points contributed per game gives me whiplash.

I would be interested in what advanced analytics might have to say about this phenomenon: do teams that have consistency in who their scoring leaders are throughout a season have more success? Or is there an advantage to a team being able to switch gears and depend on different contributors? Anyone have an answer?

 

[rogerkim]

I'm enjoying this, but I'm like an abused child at the amusement park. Always cringing from the next blow. Too much history. We were RANKED 19th in 2021.

I'll enjoy every win but have low expectations.

My feelings exactly. Want to be hopeful and "expect victory", but have been disappointed too often in the past. Like others have expressed, I want to reserve judgment/excitement until after I've seen how we do in our first few games against the gauntlet that is the Big Ten.

 

[rogerkim]

Meanwhile, here's the Bracket Matrix, which keeps track of a lot of bracketologists. Some have NU as high as a nine seed!

Nice link - will have to keep referring to that throughout the season.

For not motivated enough to click on the link: as of Dec 26, we are projected as making the tournament by 12 out of the 35 brackets tracked by the site, and our average projected seed in those 12 brackets is 10.58.

 

[NUThump]

This is an interesting point that has been a question/frustration over the past few seasons: players' inconsistency in production on the offense. While I understand that each game is different and may result in highlighting different players on the offense side depending on the opponent, the inconsistency in the contributions of certain players on our roster is puzzling at the least and maddening at the worst. I also get that players may have a hot or cold night on occasion, but the wide variances in points contributed per game gives me whiplash.

I would be interested in what advanced analytics might have to say about this phenomenon: do teams that have consistency in who their scoring leaders are throughout a season have more success? Or is there an advantage to a team being able to switch gears and depend on different contributors? Anyone have an answer?

Game planning of the opposition matters. Maybe they are willing to let others score to shut down certain people. We have stuck Audige on high scorers so far this season and that has led to wide variances for them.

 

[GatoLouco]

We have two players that are hard to shut down: Boo and Chase. They can be clamped and still score. Or not.

All others are easy to shut down. Every single one of them. They will have the occasional big game as Beran and Barnhizer did. But if there’s focus by the other team they will look absent.

That’s also why you see segments of the game where Berry or Beran score a few points just to “disappear” after. In most cases, coaches on the other side don’t even have to change anything. Defenders just adapt, stay closer and help less. If they don’t they are guaranteed a sit on the bench anyway.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I agree. To me, it’s the support for why our talent is lower tier BIG. We have two generally inconsistent players who can take over games, and the rest of our players do not even have that level of talent. Other teams just have either guys who consistently can take over (which we do not have at all), or more than two of the inconsistent ones that can.

 

[timbfischer]

I am gonna watch Ohio State game. I am trying to temper expectations, but if it is close, I will start to want to win. Then will be hugely disappointed when we lose by 1.

 

[TheC]

We are beating the low level teams which is never a given for us. But we only have one quality win. If we beat a few BIG teams, then I will start to get my hopes up. I just really, really worry that all this fun talk comes to a crashing halt over the next two weeks.

 

[Sec.112]

I think the original description of "interesting" is a fair way to characterize the season so far.

I wish I could jump on the bandwagon and scream with confidence. But if you look closer at NU's opponents, I don't find multiple examples of really strong performances.

Obviously, the MSU win was a really nice game. They have strong wins on the record so far. But after that?

Auburn has one win in the KenPom top 100 and they're dropping in the polls.

I also can't ignore that the Cats were up by one on Purdue-Ft. Wayne with three minutes left. What if mediocre Boo is playing that day rather than his inconsistently great game?

Brown was also a whole lot of ugly.

I'm also not a huge believer in the stellar defense narrative. Part of that is the obvious move to wisely slow the game to fewer possessions. I also think once Beran and the centers start seeing some bigger bodies, there could be problems.

OTOH, the staff has covered front line weaknesses pretty well in the past.

Yes, things are interesting. The offense is the weakness that EVERYBODY sees. If somehow Boo, Audige and maybe Berry can find some more consistent outside shooting and better ball movement - just a little bit better - it can be a fun conference season.

 

[MC_Cat]

I think Berry is key. He's good at creating his own shot and has a quick release. We need him to hit 3+ threes a game.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I want some of what you are smoking. Beran is probably the best or second best player on the team.

You are taking Beran over Buie and Audige? Really?

 

[phatcat]

I want some of what you are smoking. Beran is probably the best or second best player on the team.

When I see you, I will give you some. I had low expectations for him and he still disappoints me.

 

[Sec.112]

I think Berry is key. He's good at creating his own shot and has a quick release. We need him to hit 3+ threes a game.

From your keyboard to God's ears!!

Do you know how big it would be if he hit 3+ threes a game!?!?! That might be the difference between a tournament and not.

Unfortunately, it's not something I'm counting on. But still hoping.

As for Beran, there's a reason I didn't mention him. He is what he is. The most I hope from him is that he doesn't completely disappear in most games. Some nice defense here and there, but ....

 

[NUCat320]

I’ll notice if NU wins five games in January.

The roadies are Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska.

The home games are OSU, Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota.

 

[DaCat]

I’ll notice if NU wins five games in January.

The roadies are Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska.

The home games are OSU, Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Minnesota.

5-4 in January would be most acceptable. Let's do it.

 

[PurpWildCatNation]

I want to.. Being a Northwestern fan is not easy

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I know yesterday was a bit lackluster (but still a win!), but NU now has the second-best overall record in the Big Ten, one conference win already in its pocket, and winnable games coming up.

Meanwhile, some of the bracketologists are already putting NU in the tourney or in the "first four out," etc. sections. They seem like, based on what we've seen so far, around 50-50 chances of getting in. Obviously a lot of basketball - including most of NU's toughest games - to be played, but with the 2022 portion of the schedule done with, I'm starting to get excited.

If you prefer not to be excited yet, that's fine by me. I know all the reasons not to get my hopes up yet - I am an NU fan, after all - but...it's getting interesting.

Meanwhile, here's the Bracket Matrix, which keeps track of a lot of bracketologists. Some have NU as high as a nine seed!

My answer to the OP, as it is for any year, is at the beginning of the year. Or if not then, as soon as possible until there is evidence to the contrary.

Fools’ gold emerges every year. But as a fan, don’t you want to get excited and possibly have your heart broken every year, just in case this is The Year? As sports as in love, the risk of getting your heart broken is what life is all about!!!

For the Cats, this year’s early results have broken very well. They’ve done their part by winning and in more cases than years past, winning in dominant fashion at times. The Pitt loss looked brutal at the time but Pitt is an improved team. And they have not yet peaked.

The other glimmer is the B1G teams. A few look like they are having down years and as someone pointed out, we will have no bad losses this year other than Minnesota at home of we lose it. 10-10 or better is not out of the question.

With our tenured roster and our record to date, our best shot at a memorable season is this year. If you take the time to read or post on this Free Basketball Board, you should watch every minute of the next few games. The team deserves your support and as an NU fan, you deserve a memorable hoops season that exceeds 2016-17.

Happy New Year Cats Fans!

 

[EagerFan]

Seems like what we need on offense is Berry/Roper (Brooks) to have more consistent shooting (12-15 points a game, say) so that if the defense doesn't respect each of them, the one they lay off on can have a big game and also open things up more for a shut down Beran.

Also, 8-10 out of Nicholson/Verh.

 

[SmellyCat]

My answer to the OP, as it is for any year, is at the beginning of the year. Or if not then, as soon as possible until there is evidence to the contrary.

Fools’ gold emerges every year. But as a fan, don’t you want to get excited and possibly have your heart broken every year, just in case this is The Year? As sports as in love, the risk of getting your heart broken is what life is all about!!!

For the Cats, this year’s early results have broken very well. They’ve done their part by winning and in more cases than years past, winning in dominant fashion at times. The Pitt loss looked brutal at the time but Pitt is an improved team. And they have not yet peaked.

The other glimmer is the B1G teams. A few look like they are having down years and as someone pointed out, we will have no bad losses this year other than Minnesota at home of we lose it. 10-10 or better is not out of the question.

With our tenured roster and our record to date, our best shot at a memorable season is this year. If you take the time to read or post on this Free Basketball Board, you should watch every minute of the next few games. The team deserves your support and as an NU fan, you deserve a memorable hoops season that exceeds 2016-17.

Happy New Year Cats Fans!

This appears to be the correct answer. Happy New Year!

 

[Titanium999]

I think the original description of "interesting" is a fair way to characterize the season so far.

I wish I could jump on the bandwagon and scream with confidence. But if you look closer at NU's opponents, I don't find multiple examples of really strong performances.

Obviously, the MSU win was a really nice game. They have strong wins on the record so far. But after that?

Auburn has one win in the KenPom top 100 and they're dropping in the polls.

I also can't ignore that the Cats were up by one on Purdue-Ft. Wayne with three minutes left. What if mediocre Boo is playing that day rather than his inconsistently great game?

Brown was also a whole lot of ugly.

I'm also not a huge believer in the stellar defense narrative. Part of that is the obvious move to wisely slow the game to fewer possessions. I also think once Beran and the centers start seeing some bigger bodies, there could be problems.

OTOH, the staff has covered front line weaknesses pretty well in the past.

Yes, things are interesting. The offense is the weakness that EVERYBODY sees. If somehow Boo, Audige and maybe Berry can find some more consistent outside shooting and better ball movement - just a little bit better - it can be a fun conference season.

We have exceptional leg 🦵 speed! That is the difference maker! We have the best group of small guards in the BT!

 

[Cat Fan in Buckeye Land]

About 10 minutes before we want to suffer epic disappointment.

 

[TheC]

Guess we know the answer now

 

[Medill '03]

I guess not yet.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Yikes. This is rough.

 

[IGNORE2]

Oh well..

 

[phatcat]

I'm enjoying this, but I'm like an abused child at the amusement park. Always cringing from the next blow. Too much history. We were RANKED 19th in 2021.

I'll enjoy every win but have low expectations.

Sigh. I spilled popcorn in the car on the way back from the amusement park. You know the rest.

 

[NUCat320]

Let’s go 5-3 the rest of the month!

 

[hoosboot]

Let’s go 5-3 the rest of the month!

That's the thing. The team isn't as bad as it played today...and it probably isn't as good as 10-2 might have suggested. Gotta figure out how to find some efficiency on offense.

 

[NJCat]

Gotta figure out how to find some efficiency on offense.

Problem is, that's been the case for 9 out of 10 years under Collins. Doing the same thing and expecting a different result, as the old saying goes, is the definition of insanity. And Collins' teams are insanely bad at offense.

 

[mountaindrew]

Problem is, that's been the case for 9 out of 10 years under Collins. Doing the same thing and expecting a different result, as the old saying goes, is the definition of insanity. And Collins' teams are insanely bad at offense.

Yes Sir. Especially at making open outside shots. That's what's driven me insane about this team for the last five years.

Somebody on the other thread asked, why is shooting 28% from the floor CCC's fault? Because we've been doing that REPEATEDLY against BT teams for the last five years. Just maybe we should try doing something different on offense.

 

[CatJones]

why is shooting 28% from the floor CCC's fault?

Shot selection is coached: who shoots and when.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

C’mon, you guys don’t really believe it’s Coaches fault when wide open shots don’t drop? We have a starter that 0-7 from the floor and 0-4 from the line. The 0-7 were all within 8 feet. CCC and staff did the ONLY thing that is really possible with this roster and focused on a defense first approach. There was always going to be games like this. We are offensively challenged with only two guys that can potentially go off. Pretty easy for B1G athletes to defend.

Personally, I like this team a lot better than what we have been watching the last few years. Keeps fighting. Hope they mentally keep too it, because the front end of this B1G schedule is brutal. Illinois has a ton of talent and on paper we shouldn’t be close. I expect a much better performance against them.