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QB pulls

The two biggest plays of the game were the two runs by Stroud where he faked the handoff and took off around the end. The NU defenders bit hard both times and didn't hold the edge. Why does this keep happening game after game? The first one was on a 4th and short play, and Heard and Lewis both ended up out of position. Surely they were told that Stroud could hold the ball in that type of situation. Very frustrating, as both plays led to subsequent TDs.

Houston v SMU

I stumbled across the above game on the NFL Network. The score was 21-21 early in the first half.. The remainder of the half was also high scoring and ended with SMU leading 56-35. Each team added 3 TDs in the second half for a final of 77-56 with about 1500 yards of total offense
The one thing that stood out was SMU's ability to generate long passes into single coverage. Other teams do this to NU but it seems like NU deep passes always have 2 defenders covering

It was fun watching these teams play because I watch NU so much and this was so different
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Trick or Treat? The Moose makes its Appearance

As I headed down my street this Halloween morning on my way to work, these two ungulates made their appearance. Eventually they made it to the base of my driveway. When I glanced out my side window there was in addition a Black Cat staring at me and the four footed Halloween visitors.

FWIW, this is the first photographed moose sighting on my street since the week before our win against Nebraska.

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The Power of Incentives

Coaches like Day, Harbaugh, Kiffin, and Smart NEED to win. If they don’t, they lose their multimillion dollar annual salaries.

Fitz wants to win; he doesn’t need to win. Every decision he makes is driven by what he is incentivized to do — and that’s to run a clean program and not embarrass the university. He’s not incentivized to win — the bulk of his compensation comes purely from just being head coach. He’s coached NU for 15+ years and has built generational wealth for his family without achieving a conference championship (which is the basic goal of every D1 college program).

His objective is to not rock the boat. He has an amazing gig — making upper tier compensation without any of the pressure/expectations that every other coach making that kind of money experiences. It drives his personnel decisions, football strategy, everything. Everything. Fitz is who he is because he’s incentivized to be that way.

Pay Fitz $100k salary + $1mm per win and his entire coaching philosophy / in-game management would change. JON would have been gone after 3 games last year.

Incentives matter.

A Moment of Joy

Before our blood gets all lathered up again for the second half of this game, let me just express my excitement that I’d guess many of you share at the first half start. Will we be great all year? Maybe maybe not. Will we even win this game? Maybe maybe not. Will we go to a bowl? Still unsure.

But we at least have a competitive squad again, and that means we can be excited to watch the Cats the next 12 weeks rather than dreading our weekly humiliation. This fun part of our life is given back to us! Let’s have a great year.

Play that made me kick the dog

There has been a lot of (understandable) kvetching about the failed 4th down wildcat calls and about over using that formation without a wrinkle as the game went on, but the play that set me over the edge was the OSU punt with a little over 8 minutes to go and the score at 14-7. I understand the terrible conditions, but it was a low line drive, and the coverage was both ragged and no where near Navarro. If he fields it, Cats start probably no worse than the 30, and it is the sort of play on a slick field he might rally break a long one. As it was, it was downed for a 45 yard punt at the 11. The Cats simply need better special team coaching. That play was huge in the outcome of the game, as Fitz did not open it up due to field position and went 3 and out, give OSU the opening to seal the game.

I really fell bad for the players. They left it all on the field today.

  • Poll
Ohio State vs. Northwestern: What Simulation Will be More Accurate?

What simulated score will be more accurate?

  • Ohio State 62, Northwestern 17

    Votes: 2 8.7%
  • Ohio State 27, Northwestern 3

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Ohio State 41, Northwestern 10

    Votes: 4 17.4%
  • Ohio State 49, Northwestern 6

    Votes: 16 69.6%
  • Ohio State will win, but by much smaller margin than these

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • All wrong, because the Wildcats will reign!

    Votes: 1 4.3%

I happened to come across some posted videos simulating the Ohio State game, along a simulation generator. There is significant variation in how these simulations think the game is going to go. A video simulation from August has the game going 62-17 Buckeyes with the game being close (31-17) in the middle of the 3rd Quarter then the Buckeyes pulling away after stopping the Wildcats on a 4th-and-goal at the 2-yard line:
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A video simulation posted earlier today still has the Buckeyes winning but in more of defensive struggle (relatively speaking) 27-3:
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A video simulation posted yesterday has the Buckeyes winning 41-10:
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A game simulation generator run right now has it Buckeyes 49-6:

There are some other simulations out there, but unfortunately, nothing I seen predicts a Wildcat victory.
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