2015 Regular Season Record

[adayNU]

I'm curious as to whether the fan base is optimistic or pessimistic about our prospects for 2015...

Obviously there are still a lot of unknowns (e.g. who our starting quarterback will be) and its always tough to predict how good our opponents will be next season, but I tend to think we may be in for another tough year.

Stanford and Duke look to be extremely tough non-cons, and our B1G schedule isn't quite as favorable as this year:

Minnesota is on the rise, but is beatableMichigan has been awful, be we still can't manage to beat them (plus Jim Harbaugh and the game is in Ann Arbor)Iowa has been bad, but will always show up to play us (apparently can't say the same for us)I don't see any reason to suspect Nebraska wont be good next yearPenn State will only get better, but still may be beatable, especially at homePurdue should hopefully still be bad, and should be a WWisconsin will miss Gordon, but assuming they can get some sort of quarterback going they will be solidIllinois should remain bad, and should be beatable
Of our B1G games, I only see 1 clear win, and 3-4 really winnable games. Obviously we proved we can beat anyone this year, but we can also lose to anyone, too.

I feel like we might end up at 4-8 or 5-7, and best case we hit 7-6 unless something really drastic changes on offense.

What are your thoughts? Am I totally off base here? Are most more optimistic than I?

 

[stpaulcat]

"I feel like we might end up at 4-8 or 5-7, and best case we hit 7-6 unless something really drastic changes on offense."

I think you're correct, unless something really drastic changes on offense. If we do find a serviceable and mobile QB, we'll do at least that well. My question is, beyond that, will our coaching staff do anything differently (better) this coming year?

 

[pawildcat]

Unlike some B1G teams, we play some OOC teams with a pulse, so it won't be easy. Stanford might be the best team we play all year. This makes a big difference. Penn State, with a 2-6 conference record and a 29-6 loss to us, went to a bowl largely because UCF was their only decent OOC opponent.

We will need to get some creditable play at QB, improved line play and also will need the return of some of the many injured players we had this year.

I'd debate that Iowa always shows up against us as the record of the last few years doesn't indicate they do. (They sure as hell didn't show up against Tennessee in the bowl game.) They probably played their best game of the year against us this season. Nebraska will be losing Abdullah and Bell and Wisconsin will be without Gordon. Those are not guys easily replaced. Wisky should be good at D, and that will be a tough game up there.

I actually will go into 2015 feeling much as I did this year. I think we will be capable of beating any B1G team we play, especially with OSU and Michigan State off the schedule, but we'll also be capable of losing to them as well. We'd better find a successful formula this year, because some of the future schedules look tougher than 2015.

 

[NJCat83588]

I'm in the same place as you. Upper end is 7 wins, more likely 5 like the last 2 seasons. Doing things the same way and expecting a different result? Insane.

 

[Turk]

8-4.

I feel mccall really struggled assessing what he had on offense. Then his total adjustment failure with Trevor being banged up. McCall seemed to finally adjust properly with a short passing game but i felt coaching was clearly responsible for two mid season losses. Fitz wasresponsible for the first couple losses by not properly preparing the team for the first two games.

That said, i gotta give fitz credit for not having his team quit. In fact u knew they would win notre dame for fitz. We gotta give the team points forplaying hard. But with further bad luck with trevor being knocked out it was just too high a price.

Moving forward, we already have some questions answered. Fg kicker. And a very deep defense that should be able to sustain even with a few injuries. We should b impressed with our D.

Ol will still cause our QB to get pounded but Thorson is such a speciman like kafka was that he should b able to sustain.

I know we are capable of winning against anyone we play next year. Need more consistency from coaching and wide outs.

We also have jj who is awesome. And fitz recruiting classes should provide cover at wr.

Given the inconsistencies id say 8 wins. Its a fine line. Even last year we could have won 8 games.

 

[lonestarmvp]

Re: 8-4.

I predict a 6-6 record in 2015 for this team. This is an average football program in every area that provides the minimum level of support and investment to compete in order to justify that annual Big 10 member check.
7-5 would be the over if all things perfectly align but more than likely 5-7 is a more realistic expectation based on all of the unanswered questions outlined above.
However, NU recruiting has improved with better talent. If the past few recruiting classes decide that they are tired of being labeled as "mediocre" and want to change the culture of this program in spite of the administration and staff, then it is possible to achieve 7 or 8 wins. But this will require a total commitment by the players to take on the ownership of the team's preparation and exceed the minimum standards set for the program.


This post was edited on 1/5 1:42 PM by lonestarmvp

 

[Fitz51]

5-7.

 

[realcatfan]

2011 we were supposed to be good and had a heisman QB and were going to make a run to the title. We ended up 6-7.

2012 we were supposed to be terrible with a true sophomore QB with no arm and a starting running back that was a failed corner and WR. We ended up 10-3

2013 we were supposed to be great with the running threat of Colter and Mark and the passing threat of Siemian. We ended up 5-7

2014 was supposed to be "the year" according to Gocatsgo who actually knows what he's talking about. We ended up 5-7.

Nobody, not even Fitz, knows how the team will do next year. I think we'll win somewhere between 1 and 15 games next year. No way we lose to EIU and I'll enjoy watching all the games at Ryan Field.

 

[Sheffielder]

I have conservatively penciled in a 2-2 OOC record and 3-5 B1G, for 5-7 overall. I admit that's pessimistic and that the last two years have taken their toll on my optimism.

I don't see us being world beaters in 2015 but I also didn't see us at 5-7 over the past couple of seasons...I think that's what makes college football so frustrating and so much fun at the same time. If this turns out to be the year we win the West, I won't mind being wrong.

 

[StreamCat]

Took the words out of my mouth, realcatfan. Every good season we've had since '95 - with the exception of '96 - has been a surprise.

 

[ToledoCat]

Depends on injuries and QB play. Have a QB develop and better luck on injuries and we get to a Bowl. If same issues as this year - 4-8. We may go 6-6 but can be competitive in every game. over time the tougher schedule will help, but for now - it will be tough.

 

[Turk]

U got us only winning 3 BIG victories again?
Roni needs to fire you up.

 

[Styre]

Depends where you draw the line for "good," I guess. I think we all expected a bowl team in '05, and '09 certainly wasn't a shock even if people had questions about Kafka.

 

[d'son d]

It's a clean slate in 2015. The numerous injuries and half healed QB made us not only one dimensional, but limited in what we could accomplish. This year is a clean slate. possible a true dual threat QB, faster receivers, and RB's, and a better defense because of our DB's (and hopefully the last of our 3 man rush!). Having a mobile quarterback makes a huge difference. And perhaps the change in out offense with some more risk taking/reward gathering plays instead of the" Jackson right, Jackson left, Jackson up the middle" reminiscent of the Payton Bears. The addition of speedier receivers (and our prior best receiver) who can separate is something I am looking forward to enjoying. yes, the glass is half full, especially with a winning season always being a surprise.

 

[Turk]

Including 2000 @ 2001. Equally surprising. 2001 was one of the more difficult years since we started the season with everyone back and ranked.
2013 was tuff. We got totally screwed with that 4th down call by the refs. Then the team collapsed and faltered with QB injuries. Ditto 2014.

At some point McCall has to start making an attempt to protect our QB. Our OL has failed miserably protecting our QB who gets absolutely crushed. Since Fitz continues to say "thats my man" to the clueless Cushing, Mccall better shorten up all routes or plan on max protection with only 3 guys in routes. Somebody has to convey this to Fitz.

Ive explained this to Fitz but he refuses to listen to me.

Until he pays attention, he will continue to have one legged and mangled qbs. Oliver thorson and alviti must all b prepared.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Originally posted by Turk:
Including 2000 @ 2001. Equally surprising. 2001 was one of the more difficult years since we started the season with everyone back and ranked.
2013 was tuff. We got totally screwed with that 4th down call by the refs. Then the team collapsed and faltered with QB injuries. Ditto 2014.

At some point McCall has to start making an attempt to protect our QB. Our OL has failed miserably protecting our QB who gets absolutely crushed. Since Fitz continues to say "thats my man" to the clueless Cushing, Mccall better shorten up all routes or plan on max protection with only 3 guys in routes. Somebody has to convey this to Fitz. Ironic that Trevor reinjured himself on a QB sneak when the OL had actually started playing much better (2 sacks against ND, 1 against Purdue, and 2 against Illinois), no?

Ive explained this to Fitz but he refuses to listen to me.

Until he pays attention, he will continue to have one legged and mangled qbs. Oliver thorson and alviti must all b prepared.

 

[Turk]

True but the statements stand. Our qbs get clobbered, no?

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Originally posted by Turk:
True but the statements stand. Our qbs get clobbered, no?

For sure. Our OL has to get a lot better. The manner of Trevor's season-ending injury was still ironic to me. Of all the shots he took throughout the year, it was a routine QB sneak that ultimately did him in.

 

[Cat In The Cradle]

Last season set the mark for the heights of uncertainty about the Program. I'm unsure what the "sure win" games are anymore - see Northern Illinois and Illinois. All the same, I'm unsure what "certain loss" games we face either - see Notre Dame in South Bend and Wisconsin. If our last game is a strong indicator, then we are in trouble. But we finished the season stronger than when we began it if you throw in the two games prior (i.e., N.D. and Purdue).

I can see us defeating our non-conference foes and navigating through the B1G with impressive results . . . but we stand an equal chance of winning only one or two token games and finishing in a manner harkening back to the Dark Ages. So, I respectfully disagree with those who predict the 2015 season record of mediocrity; that is, a W/L record ranging from 5-7 to 7-5. Instead, a season record of /= 8-4 seems more realistic. The coaching, training, motivation, working out routine - what individual coaches and players are doing today, today, today to improve themselves and the team - between now and the Spring Scrimmage is crucial, at which time we'll know which side of the paradigm the season outlook resembles, champions or losers.

 

[Turk]

You know, regardless, i dont think other teams really bothered planning for trevors running, and notre dame was willing to count it as collateral damage. I cant imagine our OL improving significantly but assuming thorson develops, i gotta imagine that a duel threat qb will give the ol alot more advantage.having jackson and an athletic qb would go a long way to equalizing any physical deficiencies we have with los matchups. I know i sound like a thorson homer but that freshman is the sorta high rist high reward player that i think we all want tosee develop. Im hopeful because i honestly believe our first few opponents may take us for granted and/or develop a game plan that stacks against jackson and forces thorson, or whoever the qb is, to beat them.

And although hope is all we got with the unseen, we certainly have alot more than hope regarding our D and FG kicker. We already know both are fairly solid. And i think the D can even sustain injuries and still be fairly solid.

Spring ball should b exciting comp for qb and wr.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Just because I'm starved for some real live discussion (and you're being reasonable for once), Devil's Advocate time:

Originally posted by Turk:
You know, regardless, i dont think other teams really bothered planning for trevors running, and notre dame was willing to count it as collateral damage. This is completely true, but he was still able to make plays on the ground once he was remotely healthy, even if they weren't the spectacular runs we had seen out of Colter. He had 49 yards gained on the ground against Notre Dame, which is pretty good. I cant imagine our OL improving significantly but assuming thorson develops, i gotta imagine that a duel threat qb will give the ol alot more advantage.having jackson and an athletic qb would go a long way to equalizing any physical deficiencies we have with los matchups. I know i sound like a thorson homer but that freshman is the sorta high rist high reward player that i think we all want tosee develop. Why would this be much different than what Alviti has to offer? Both can theoretically move the offense with their legs as well as their arm and we know even less about Thorson than we do about Alviti. Im hopeful because i honestly believe our first few opponents may take us for granted and/or develop a game plan that stacks against jackson and forces thorson, or whoever the qb is, to beat them. Wouldn't this basically put the game on the arm of an inexperienced QB? That doesn't sound like hope that they'll develop, but rather hope that they can actually win games from the drop.

And although hope is all we got with the unseen, we certainly have alot more than hope regarding our D and FG kicker. We already know both are fairly solid. And i think the D can even sustain injuries and still be fairly solid. We do? On defense, we lose many of our playmakers and leaders (especially Campbell and Ariguzo, Jimmy Hall to a lesser extent) and are relying on two currently-injured DTs to carry much of the load inside (McEvilly and Kuhar). Our DBs should be solid, but I suspect we may be playing two first-year starters back there at safety (Igwebuike and Queiro with Henry moving to SAM backer), which is always an adventure. At kicker, Mitchell obviously saved the day against Notre Dame, but was shaky the next week against Purdue and his longest field goal outside of that game was from 34 yards against Illinois. He's got plenty of room for improvement as well.

Spring ball should b exciting comp for qb and wr.

 

[GlideCat]

We have a couple of holes to fill in the secondary but overall the young talent on defense looks very good and we have reason for optimism on that side of the ball.

It seems that everyone is in agreement that the difference between a 7 win team is marked improvement in the O Line and QB.

I imagine that the coaching staff is way ahead of us on this. So, we have reason for optimism. Although critical items, they have a clear point of focus for the offseason. I believe that the o-line did improve from 2013 and 2014 and JJ's rushing yards demonstrated that improvement. Pass blocking which requires a huge amount of teamwork and lateral quickness may have been lacking. I am hoping that we can see as much improvement in the chosen starter from this year to next as we saw in Kafka between his junior and senior years. There is precedent.

If we do not see these improvements, then it will be truly time to question the abilities of the coaching staff.

So, I am going to say 7-5 with a win over Duke in OOC. Wins in conference: Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, PSU. Possibly one surprise loss to one of these teams and a surprise win over a heavily favored opponent.

 

[Turk]

Certainly room for improvements. But we lost kuhar and McEvilly last year and we were functionable. Yea we lose chi chi and hall but henry and smith are the real deal we know.

We really didnt have a healthy campbell all year other than a couple games.

Always question marks but i think the defense will b our strength and even the question marks on defense come with experience.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Originally posted by Turk:
Certainly room for improvements. But we lost kuhar and McEvilly last year and we were functionable. Not really... there were plenty of games where we were clearly outmuscled inside. Yea we lose chi chi and hall but henry and smith are the real deal we know. I'm not nearly as sold on Smith as you are.

We really didnt have a healthy campbell all year other than a couple games. This is true, but losing the leadership and experience he offers matters regardless of his health last season.

Always question marks but i think the defense will b our strength and even the question marks on defense come with experience.

 

[Catreporter]

I think the urgency of getting some promising young talent ready for a difficult opening game played into Fitz's reluctance to change coaches. Relationships are important and so is confidence, especially amongst lower classmen. Spring ball starts in about seven weeks and I'd say there is a real urgency this spring to find the QB who is going to run this offense, and to find new leaders on what could be a very talented defense.

 

[NJCat83588]

If Fitzgerald is basing his coach retention decisions on game 1 of a 12 game season, he should be fired. I highly doubt the opening game opponent had any effect whatsoever on whether or not he changes coaches.

 

[MRCat95]

Originally posted by GlideCat:


It seems that everyone is in agreement that the difference between a 7 win team is marked improvement in the O Line and QB.

I'd say improvement in wide receiver play is more critical than improved QB or even OL play. Certainly all three have significant room to improve. In our type of offense, you cannot have a position group (receivers) that has 3-5 players on the field be unable to make plays and have a chance to win.

 

[GlideCat]

Originally posted by MRCat95:

Originally posted by GlideCat:


It seems that everyone is in agreement that the difference between a 7 win team is marked improvement in the O Line and QB.

I'd say improvement in wide receiver play is more critical than improved QB or even OL play. Certainly all three have significant room to improve. In our type of offense, you cannot have a position group (receivers) that has 3-5 players on the field be unable to make plays and have a chance to win.

Makes sense. That dampens my optimism somewhat as basically we need to see improvement in the entire offense except for the running back (and maybe the superback position although I anticipate being called out on that, as well). That means some serious work by the OC in the next few weeks to get them going in the right direction. Since we went into last season knowing that the O-Line needed improvement and I saw some (although not quite enough), I felt that O-Line and QB was do-able. O-Line, QB, and WRs is a tall order for one offseason.

I expect Stanford to stack the box and force our QB, WRs, and O-Line to beat them with a passing game. Similar to the second half of Nebraska game this year. If we cannot have an offense that forces them to back out of that, then it will be an early warning sign.

An even earlier warning sign will be pre-season if we get announcements about how great the defense is looking in training camp like we did last year. That gave me the heeby-geebies at the time.

 

[mybrotha]

I believe unfortunately that this program has reached a critical mass of sorts. I will write a post concerning some things that have not been mentioned here before. Because of these elements, I am not very optimistic for 2015. I think 5 and 7 to 6 and 6 is the best we'll do. That hurts me to say, but I just don't think Fitz is a good football coach.

 

[Turk]

nate williams comment

Fair enough. Part of my hope is that new leadership will fill the gap..
nate williams said something about needing some assholes on the team. I get what he is saying but i hope we have some leaders who are MEAN.
We need some players that are junkyard dog mean who happen to b good, not stupid dirty but mean as hell. I dont know lorwy but he seems relentless so i hope he is in the mean category as well. When i played high school ball we were well aware of who the mean as hell players were in the steel valley league i played in, im not sure other big ten teams are really aware of any mean guys on our team. Not sure if thats because we have a bunch of suburban boys who come from blessed families since we watch mean suburban kids excell as well.

I may b wrong but as a fan i really dont get the idea we have any junkyard dog mean guys. Not that we have to but i always like watching players who play like butkis did. Watching luke k from carolina is a blast. Thats leadership as well. We need a leader with a motor like that.

 

[GlideCat]

Re: nate williams comment

Campbell definitely had a mean (in a good way) streak to him. Especially in the Purdue game when he was fairly healthy. He was a hunter/killer.

I see that sort of hunter/killer mentality with Walker, as well. He needs some more reps and next year as he has grown in the defense, I expect great things from him.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Re: nate williams comment

Originally posted by Turk:
Fair enough. Part of my hope is that new leadership will fill the gap..
nate williams said something about needing some assholes on the team. I get what he is saying but i hope we have some leaders who are MEAN.
We need some players that are junkyard dog mean who happen to b good, not stupid dirty but mean as hell. I dont know lorwy but he seems relentless so i hope he is in the mean category as well. When i played high school ball we were well aware of who the mean as hell players were in the steel valley league i played in, im not sure other big ten teams are really aware of any mean guys on our team. Not sure if thats because we have a bunch of suburban boys who come from blessed families since we watch mean suburban kids excell as well.

I may b wrong but as a fan i really dont get the idea we have any junkyard dog mean guys. Not that we have to but i always like watching players who play like butkis did. Watching luke k from carolina is a blast. Thats leadership as well. We need a leader with a motor like that.

In a great bit of irony, Luke Kuechly is pretty much the poster boy for a suburban boy who happens to play with a great motor and is a great football player. As I'm sure you're well aware, growing up in Evendale, Ohio (where median family income is $100,000+) and playing for St. Xavier (where tuition is $12,000+) isn't exactly the prototype for the "junkyard dog mean" mentality you're proseltyizing for.

 

[Katatonic]

Originally posted by gocatsgo2003:

Originally posted by Turk:
True but the statements stand. Our qbs get clobbered, no?

For sure. Our OL has to get a lot better. The manner of Trevor's season-ending injury was still ironic to me. Of all the shots he took throughout the year, it was a routine QB sneak that ultimately did him in.

But one that should never had been attempted as the PU D had stacked the line.

 

[Deeringfish]

I missed this thread the first time through and this is the time of the year to be hopeful so here's my take on reasons we could win 8 games in 2015.

1) I've read a couple of articles that indicate that statistically speaking coaching changes typically set a team further back and are based on knee jerk reaction rather than true need for change. So maybe NU did the right thing retaining stability.

2) In both of the last two years we have had a disproportionate number of injuries, yet were competitive, losing many games in the final seconds or over time. Law of averages allows us back to the mean which for NU is 7 or 8 games.

3) With no knowledge of the inside workings, I believe that the union thing sowed a real seed of division in Senior leadership. I think the guys were smart enough to stay politically correct and keep it private but some of these young men were excited about the movement and it got shushed. When I was 20 getting shushed didn't sit well and I would have followed along but without much heart. The union issue is now less hot with the departure of the two QB who apparently too opposing views.

4) The classes that we have brought in the past few years were really solid and again we have the chance to return to the mean.

5) Fitz is still growing and I have him being more experienced rather than burned out. I do think that burned out is a real possibility with him as he came into this very young and the grace period is ending but for now, Union distraction behind return to the mean.

So I guess bottom line I think NU is a better program than the last two years indicate but not much better than average.

 

[beltwaycat]

I see the same exuberant optimists are once again predicting 8-4, but haven't we learned the last two seasons that it's best to lower expectations? As in 2014, questions persist about the offense -- and I worry most about the physicality of the OL -- and at this stage we have no reason for confidence, especially with a tougher OOC schedule. Fitz's losing record in B1G games is something we do not know if he can ever reverse. Hard to predict, but I'd say another 5-7 season seems right now the best possible outcome.

 

[Catreporter]

I'm going to wait till the Spring game (Yes, it sounds like there might actually be one this year on April 11) before speculating how we are going to do this year. I need to see Alviti and Thorson in some live game situations. We showed some nice young talent last year (Walker,Igwebuke,Jackson,Washington). Hoping more will show up this year.