With the bowl game played and the calendar turning over to 2017, feels like a good time for another one of these... and we're off!
2016
What a weird year. The first two games were an unmitigated train wreck (that had me calling for people to be fired). To their credit, the players and coaches turned the season around to finish 7-4 (5-4) with a win over a game Pitt team to finish out the year; not "the destination" by any means, but worlds better than pretty much anyone would have predicted after the first two weeks and some decent momentum for the offseason.
My over/under for a "successful season" remains 6.5 regular season wins with a bowl win. I therefore wouldn't really consider this season a "success," though it's going to be a whole lot easier to sit through the loonnnggggg offseason coming off a bowl win.
Much to my disbelief, Austin Carr has to be the season MVP with Justin Jackson a clear second. I don't know that anyone could have seen Carr's breakout year coming (I mean seriously... 23 career catches to B1G Receiver of the Year and a Biletnikoff Award finalist?) while Jackson was the difference in a lot of games.
In my opinion, the uneven performances were driven primarily by the up-and-down play we got from our OL. Butler taking over for Mahoney starting with the Michigan State game seemed to turn things around (do I get partial credit for my "PEOPLE NEED TO LOSE THEIR JOBS" rant?), which can be seen in the statistics: after giving up 3, 3, 5, 4, and 1 sacks in the first five games (3.2/game), the MSU started a string of 1, 3, 1, 2, and 0 over the next five games (1.4/game). However, the final three games closed out with 7, 5, and 4 (5.3/game) when Minnesota, Illinois, and Pitt realized they could simply overpower our OL in passing scenarios. Credit to the OL in becoming more physical in the run game over the course of the season, but their performance was the key driver over the course of the season.
2017
Recruiting
The class of 2017 looks to mostly be set absent a decommitment or otherwise unexpected turn of events toward the end of the process. Ellis Brooks seems to be the most legitimate target left on the board and would be a great get at a position that is suddenly a near-desperate need; here's hoping he really likes his upcoming official visit because he seems like a pretty solid Maryland lean at this point. Jax Wacaser has an offer and is a good-looking prospect, but I don't get the feeling that we have a great shot there. If we land anyone besides Brooks, my guess would be someone more like Andrew Stueber or Joel Honigford if Harbaugh starts using his "meritocracy" method to cut guys or a decommit who isn't even on the radar yet.
Either way, the class seems yet again pretty solid... click a name below for a link to the most recent Hudl tape I could find:
QB Andrew Marty
WR Berkeley Holman
WR Jace James
WR Kyric McGowan
SB Trey Pugh
OL Sam Gerak
OL Rashawn Slater
OL Ethan Wiederkehr
DL Earnest Brown
DL Trevor Kent
DL Sam Miller
LB Blake Gallagher
LB Peter McIntyre
DB Austin Hiller
DB Bryce Jackson
DB JR Pace
DB Cameron Ruiz
K Charlie Kuhbander
I'll save my full "recruiting wrap" post for after Signing Day, but the long story short is that this is another quality class top-to-bottom. Brown is the clear headliner on defense, but the whole DL group is strong. I'm pleasantly surprised by Holman (not "fast fast," but runs better than I thought) and Hiller (good size and makes a lot of plays against top competition). McIntyre and Ruiz are both developmental guys, but have interesting athletic talents. Given our current roster construction, I wonder if Pace or Hiller might be considered for a move to LB (in addition to guys already on the roster who might have the frame, like Murray).
Season
While Walker leaving early clearly puts a damper on our 2017 prospects, at least we have Igwebuike back. The defense should again be pretty darn good, though I suspect we might see a lot more nickel than in years past as the trio of Igwebuike/Queiro/McGee is pretty good (especially considered against our suddenly-thin LB corps). Production from Robbins and Odenigbo can likely be replaced by a combination of Gaziano, Goens, Carnifax, and Alex Miller; it will be interesting to see if Gooden can physically develop enough to provide a pass rush threat. DTs should remain stout with Lancaster and Thompson starting; Wyatt showed flashes and Saunders looked physically ready on senior tape.
Similar to 2016, the offensive line will likely be the key on that side of the ball. Doles, Oxley, and Vogel are all decent candidates to replace Olson at RT (who struggled mightily at times anyway). The rest of the guys need to get stronger to firm up their pass sets, which were occasionally still quite soft. Replacing Carr will likely by "by committee," but I'm hopeful that another year with Thorson will lead to better chemistry throughout the room rather than with just one guy. Nagel and Wilson flashed on occasion, but their ability to be lead WRs might be limited by size/speed (though I was wrong on Carr in that regard, so who knows?). Jackson/Long/Moten will be a potent RB group and any contributions from Anderson, Larkin, or Brown will likely be on special teams. Dickerson came on at SB as the year played out and I suspect we might see more of Green as a pass catcher.
Good news is that the schedule is pretty favorable. OOC is pretty weak with Nevada, Duke, and Bowling Green, but we will find out REALLY QUICKLY whether we are for real with Wisconsin and Penn State to open the B1G slate. We should have a decent shot in all the remaining B1G games and get most of the better teams at home (Iowa, MSU, Minnesota); Nebraska is a tough call post-Armstrong and I don't anticipate too much of a bounce for Maryland, Purdue, or Illinois based purely on the personnel of those two programs. With another year of development for the OL and WR along with better health and a couple lucky bounces, we could pretty easily make some noise in the B1G West.
2016
What a weird year. The first two games were an unmitigated train wreck (that had me calling for people to be fired). To their credit, the players and coaches turned the season around to finish 7-4 (5-4) with a win over a game Pitt team to finish out the year; not "the destination" by any means, but worlds better than pretty much anyone would have predicted after the first two weeks and some decent momentum for the offseason.
My over/under for a "successful season" remains 6.5 regular season wins with a bowl win. I therefore wouldn't really consider this season a "success," though it's going to be a whole lot easier to sit through the loonnnggggg offseason coming off a bowl win.
Much to my disbelief, Austin Carr has to be the season MVP with Justin Jackson a clear second. I don't know that anyone could have seen Carr's breakout year coming (I mean seriously... 23 career catches to B1G Receiver of the Year and a Biletnikoff Award finalist?) while Jackson was the difference in a lot of games.
In my opinion, the uneven performances were driven primarily by the up-and-down play we got from our OL. Butler taking over for Mahoney starting with the Michigan State game seemed to turn things around (do I get partial credit for my "PEOPLE NEED TO LOSE THEIR JOBS" rant?), which can be seen in the statistics: after giving up 3, 3, 5, 4, and 1 sacks in the first five games (3.2/game), the MSU started a string of 1, 3, 1, 2, and 0 over the next five games (1.4/game). However, the final three games closed out with 7, 5, and 4 (5.3/game) when Minnesota, Illinois, and Pitt realized they could simply overpower our OL in passing scenarios. Credit to the OL in becoming more physical in the run game over the course of the season, but their performance was the key driver over the course of the season.
2017
Recruiting
The class of 2017 looks to mostly be set absent a decommitment or otherwise unexpected turn of events toward the end of the process. Ellis Brooks seems to be the most legitimate target left on the board and would be a great get at a position that is suddenly a near-desperate need; here's hoping he really likes his upcoming official visit because he seems like a pretty solid Maryland lean at this point. Jax Wacaser has an offer and is a good-looking prospect, but I don't get the feeling that we have a great shot there. If we land anyone besides Brooks, my guess would be someone more like Andrew Stueber or Joel Honigford if Harbaugh starts using his "meritocracy" method to cut guys or a decommit who isn't even on the radar yet.
Either way, the class seems yet again pretty solid... click a name below for a link to the most recent Hudl tape I could find:
QB Andrew Marty
WR Berkeley Holman
WR Jace James
WR Kyric McGowan
SB Trey Pugh
OL Sam Gerak
OL Rashawn Slater
OL Ethan Wiederkehr
DL Earnest Brown
DL Trevor Kent
DL Sam Miller
LB Blake Gallagher
LB Peter McIntyre
DB Austin Hiller
DB Bryce Jackson
DB JR Pace
DB Cameron Ruiz
K Charlie Kuhbander
I'll save my full "recruiting wrap" post for after Signing Day, but the long story short is that this is another quality class top-to-bottom. Brown is the clear headliner on defense, but the whole DL group is strong. I'm pleasantly surprised by Holman (not "fast fast," but runs better than I thought) and Hiller (good size and makes a lot of plays against top competition). McIntyre and Ruiz are both developmental guys, but have interesting athletic talents. Given our current roster construction, I wonder if Pace or Hiller might be considered for a move to LB (in addition to guys already on the roster who might have the frame, like Murray).
Season
While Walker leaving early clearly puts a damper on our 2017 prospects, at least we have Igwebuike back. The defense should again be pretty darn good, though I suspect we might see a lot more nickel than in years past as the trio of Igwebuike/Queiro/McGee is pretty good (especially considered against our suddenly-thin LB corps). Production from Robbins and Odenigbo can likely be replaced by a combination of Gaziano, Goens, Carnifax, and Alex Miller; it will be interesting to see if Gooden can physically develop enough to provide a pass rush threat. DTs should remain stout with Lancaster and Thompson starting; Wyatt showed flashes and Saunders looked physically ready on senior tape.
Similar to 2016, the offensive line will likely be the key on that side of the ball. Doles, Oxley, and Vogel are all decent candidates to replace Olson at RT (who struggled mightily at times anyway). The rest of the guys need to get stronger to firm up their pass sets, which were occasionally still quite soft. Replacing Carr will likely by "by committee," but I'm hopeful that another year with Thorson will lead to better chemistry throughout the room rather than with just one guy. Nagel and Wilson flashed on occasion, but their ability to be lead WRs might be limited by size/speed (though I was wrong on Carr in that regard, so who knows?). Jackson/Long/Moten will be a potent RB group and any contributions from Anderson, Larkin, or Brown will likely be on special teams. Dickerson came on at SB as the year played out and I suspect we might see more of Green as a pass catcher.
Good news is that the schedule is pretty favorable. OOC is pretty weak with Nevada, Duke, and Bowling Green, but we will find out REALLY QUICKLY whether we are for real with Wisconsin and Penn State to open the B1G slate. We should have a decent shot in all the remaining B1G games and get most of the better teams at home (Iowa, MSU, Minnesota); Nebraska is a tough call post-Armstrong and I don't anticipate too much of a bounce for Maryland, Purdue, or Illinois based purely on the personnel of those two programs. With another year of development for the OL and WR along with better health and a couple lucky bounces, we could pretty easily make some noise in the B1G West.
