2022-23 NET ratings updates
- Thread starter Styre
- Start date
Thanks to both of you for providing these updates. Tough homestand ahead. One game at a time!
I’m going to go out on a limb and assume that’s another Quad 1 win for NU? How many do we currently have?
It’s updated, we are 44, 6-4 Quad 1 games. Wisc dropped out of top 75 with their loss.
That week couldn't have gone better. Barring a complete and utter collapse, NU is in the tournament at this point, sitting at NET 44.
This week features a Quad 1 home game against Indiana and a Quad 2 home game against Iowa.
QUAD 1 (6-4)
H #4 Purdue - W
A #17 Indiana - W
H #21 Rutgers - L
H #22 Illinois - W
A #32 Michigan State - W
N #35 Auburn - L
A #39 Iowa - L
N #47 Liberty - W
A #54 Ohio State - W
A #68 Michigan - L
QUAD 2 (2-3)
H #51 Pittsburgh - L
H #54 Ohio State - L
H #68 Michigan - L
A #80 Wisconsin - W
A #100 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #80 Wisconsin - W
A #232 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #168 Brown - W
H #170 DePaul - W
H #224 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #240 Northern Illinois - W
H #241 Minnesota - W
H #279 Prairie View A&M - W
H #283 UIC - W
H #284 Chicago State - W
This week features a Quad 1 home game against Indiana and a Quad 2 home game against Iowa.
QUAD 1 (6-4)
H #4 Purdue - W
A #17 Indiana - W
H #21 Rutgers - L
H #22 Illinois - W
A #32 Michigan State - W
N #35 Auburn - L
A #39 Iowa - L
N #47 Liberty - W
A #54 Ohio State - W
A #68 Michigan - L
QUAD 2 (2-3)
H #51 Pittsburgh - L
H #54 Ohio State - L
H #68 Michigan - L
A #80 Wisconsin - W
A #100 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #80 Wisconsin - W
A #232 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #168 Brown - W
H #170 DePaul - W
H #224 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #240 Northern Illinois - W
H #241 Minnesota - W
H #279 Prairie View A&M - W
H #283 UIC - W
H #284 Chicago State - W
So, at the end of the season, are the categories based on team's final rankings? I think so.
But, let's say, for example, that NU beat a Rutgers team in January that was playing very well, but then collapsed in February and March after losing a key player to injury. It's an unusual situation, but plausible.
But, let's say, for example, that NU beat a Rutgers team in January that was playing very well, but then collapsed in February and March after losing a key player to injury. It's an unusual situation, but plausible.
The categories are based on current rankings, not rankings at the time of the game. But the committee isn't bound by the NET rankings - they can and do take into account situations like the one you mention.
How are Rutgers and Illinois, with worse overall records and worse Quad 1 & 2 records, 22 spots ahead of NU?
Significantly better computer efficiency rankings. NET rankings aren't all about the 4 quadrants.
Take out the detail to another level, and the Cats are looking nice compared to the B10 mosh pit. That Q1 record should serve them well.
NU Net rank: 44, Kenpom SOS 49
Q1 6-4
Q2 2-3
No Q3 and Q4 losses
IU Net rank: 17, Kenpom SOS 24
Q1 5-6
Q2 3-1
No Q3 and Q4 losses
Rutgers Net rank: 21, Kenpom SOS 46
Q1 4-6
Q2 4-2
One Q3 loss
Illannoy Net rank: 22, Kenpom SOS 53
Q1 3-6
Q2 4-1
No Q3 or Q4 losses
Maryland Net rank: 28, Kenpom SOS 42
Q1 3-7
Q2 3-1
No Q3 or Q4 losses
MSU Net rank: 32, Kenpom SOS 3
Q1 6-7
Q2 3-1
One Q3 loss
Iowa Net rank: 39, Kenpom SOS 22
Q1 7-6
Q2 3-1
Two Q3 and Q4 losses
Mich Net rank: 68, Kenpom SOS 38
Q1 2-9
Q2 4-1
One Q4 loss
NU Net rank: 44, Kenpom SOS 49
Q1 6-4
Q2 2-3
No Q3 and Q4 losses
IU Net rank: 17, Kenpom SOS 24
Q1 5-6
Q2 3-1
No Q3 and Q4 losses
Rutgers Net rank: 21, Kenpom SOS 46
Q1 4-6
Q2 4-2
One Q3 loss
Illannoy Net rank: 22, Kenpom SOS 53
Q1 3-6
Q2 4-1
No Q3 or Q4 losses
Maryland Net rank: 28, Kenpom SOS 42
Q1 3-7
Q2 3-1
No Q3 or Q4 losses
MSU Net rank: 32, Kenpom SOS 3
Q1 6-7
Q2 3-1
One Q3 loss
Iowa Net rank: 39, Kenpom SOS 22
Q1 7-6
Q2 3-1
Two Q3 and Q4 losses
Mich Net rank: 68, Kenpom SOS 38
Q1 2-9
Q2 4-1
One Q4 loss
Why we have to root for the teams above us to lose games. If they just keep winning it tends to all stay the same
In the predictive metrics we were expected to lose by ~2. We won by 2. That's a difference of 4, spread across 25 games we've now played. So it doesn't move the needle a whole lot. On the other hand, another quad 1 W over a ranked team definitely moves the needle! Btw for those hugely focused on or worried about KenPom, other metrics that are solely W/L based (no margin of victory component, "results-based" as they say rather than predictive) have us higher - KPI at 25 and Strength of Record at 22.
This has a table of a variety of components that the NCAA committee looks at.
NCAA Teamsheet Ranks - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
Pitt is 19-7 overall, and 12-3 in the ACC, 1st in their conference, and that's a Quad 2 team? I know I'm not good with the numbers -- yeah, a poli sci guy who ended up in law school and have no math skills other than figuring out a third of that settlement -- but how does that make sense?
It doesn't.
The whole Quad thing is silly, but probably better than the godawful RPI they used before that.
It is intended to justify shafting the mid-majors and keeping them out of the tournament. Nothing more, nothing less.
We have 7 Quad 1 wins. The most any team below us has is 5 - and that's only one team, Pitt, who I think we can all agree has also broken the computers. And killed us that night. Only one team above us ranked between 15-42 has as many Quad 1 wins - and that, of course, is Iowa. Alabama, Purdue, and a handful of Big 12 teams have 7 or more. There are only 9 teams in the country, by my count, who have at least those 7 Quad 1 wins.
You play to win the game. Maybe "efficiency" versus expected performance is a sign of something...but in the end, a win by 1 is the same thing as a win by 30, but not as a loss by 1.
Whatever - if it helps keep our edge, I'm all for it.
I'm just saying the teams in the Power 6 will play Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams all the time... and the mid-majors don't.
There are obvious flaws in the NET rankings. We should be rated higher.
FWIW, Lunardi today has NU as a 6 seed and 24 overall.
Of course. Just...we're in mid-February. By now, your resume is your record. We've got a sterling one. In my purple-colored view, we're exposing limitations of these systems that inexplicably put less importance on actually winning games. Let's keep the good going.
A 6 seed would be so sweet, win the first round and the worst case is a 3 seed in round 2. That's a path I could see leading to the sweet sixteen
Bingo. The computer rankings are the computer rankings, but the "quad" system is skewed toward helping middling high-major teams.
Shows the nonsense. In the end this sort of manipulation allows them to do whatever they want
I saw Indiana as high as a four in some brackets yesterday. Surely with a head-to-head advantage and a better overall record than Indiana, NU is trending toward that neighborhood. Finish 4-1 let's say, with maybe one win in the BTT, and I think a five-seed is in play, if not better. This is ridiculous.
Post- IU win NET update: No change in overall NET ranking: #43. Away loss at Michigan could drop to a Q2 loss, but away win at Wisconsin could move up to Q1, depending on how those two teams do for the remainder of the season.
Remaining schedule: H vs #39 Iowa (Q2), A vs #27 Illinois (Q1), A vs #28 Maryland (Q1), H vs #61 PSU (Q2), A vs #29 Rutgers (Q1)
QUAD 1 (7-4)
H #4 Purdue - W
A #18 Indiana - W
H #18 Indiana - W
N #26 Auburn - L
H #27 Illinois - W
H #29 Rutgers - L
A #35 Michigan State - W
A #39 Iowa - L
N #46 Liberty - W
A #53 Ohio State - W
A #72 Michigan - L
QUAD 2 (2-3)
H #48 Pittsburgh - L
H #53 Ohio State - L
H #72 Michigan - L
A #77 Wisconsin - W
A #94 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #77 Wisconsin - W
A #229 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #167 Brown - W
H #174 DePaul - W
H #222 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #238 Northern Illinois - W
H #243 Minnesota - W
H #279 Prairie View A&M - W
H #282 Chicago State - W
H #290 UIC - W
Remaining schedule: H vs #39 Iowa (Q2), A vs #27 Illinois (Q1), A vs #28 Maryland (Q1), H vs #61 PSU (Q2), A vs #29 Rutgers (Q1)
QUAD 1 (7-4)
H #4 Purdue - W
A #18 Indiana - W
H #18 Indiana - W
N #26 Auburn - L
H #27 Illinois - W
H #29 Rutgers - L
A #35 Michigan State - W
A #39 Iowa - L
N #46 Liberty - W
A #53 Ohio State - W
A #72 Michigan - L
QUAD 2 (2-3)
H #48 Pittsburgh - L
H #53 Ohio State - L
H #72 Michigan - L
A #77 Wisconsin - W
A #94 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #77 Wisconsin - W
A #229 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #167 Brown - W
H #174 DePaul - W
H #222 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #238 Northern Illinois - W
H #243 Minnesota - W
H #279 Prairie View A&M - W
H #282 Chicago State - W
H #290 UIC - W
4-1 with wins over Iowa, Rutgers .... 14-6 in the big ten, 2nd place, we might be pushing a 3 seed, I think a 4 seed would be a lock.
The ACC is the seventh ranked conference in NET rankings. The Moutain West and Pac-12 are ahead of them.
I'd rather Michigan lose out and drop to Quad 4 than cheer for them.
I started these posts with the idea of monitoring whether or not NU could potentially sneak into the NIT. Now they're rolling into the NCAAs and have an outside shot at winning the B1G. Still "only" NET 39 but it's hard to get big shifts in computer rankings down the stretch.
This week features two road games: Quad 1 at Illinois and Quad 1 at Maryland.
QUAD 1 (7-4)
H #5 Purdue - W
H #18 Indiana - W
A #18 Indiana - W
H #27 Illinois - W
H #29 Rutgers - L
N #30 Auburn - L
A #40 Michigan State - W
A #42 Iowa - L
N #45 Liberty - W
A #65 Michigan - L
A #68 Ohio State - W
QUAD 2 (3-3)
H #42 Iowa - W
H #51 Pittsburgh - L
H #65 Michigan - L
H #68 Ohio State - L
A #76 Wisconsin - W
A #92 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #76 Wisconsin - W
A #220 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #167 DePaul - W
H #179 Brown - W
H #233 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #241 Minnesota - W
H #253 Northern Illinois - W
H #274 Prairie View A&M - W
H #281 Chicago State - W
H #289 UIC - W
This week features two road games: Quad 1 at Illinois and Quad 1 at Maryland.
QUAD 1 (7-4)
H #5 Purdue - W
H #18 Indiana - W
A #18 Indiana - W
H #27 Illinois - W
H #29 Rutgers - L
N #30 Auburn - L
A #40 Michigan State - W
A #42 Iowa - L
N #45 Liberty - W
A #65 Michigan - L
A #68 Ohio State - W
QUAD 2 (3-3)
H #42 Iowa - W
H #51 Pittsburgh - L
H #65 Michigan - L
H #68 Ohio State - L
A #76 Wisconsin - W
A #92 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (2-0)
H #76 Wisconsin - W
A #220 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #167 DePaul - W
H #179 Brown - W
H #233 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #241 Minnesota - W
H #253 Northern Illinois - W
H #274 Prairie View A&M - W
H #281 Chicago State - W
H #289 UIC - W
A rough week for NU heading down the stretch, but no shame in losing two tough road games. NU has dropped to #41, but there is no question about their tournament status. We did lose a Quad 1 win as Illinois dropped out of the top 30, but picked up a replacement as Wisconsin moved back into the top 75.
The final two regular season games are a Quad 2 home game against Penn State and a Quad 1 road game at Rutgers.
QUAD 1 (7-5)
H #5 Purdue - W
H #18 Indiana - W
A #18 Indiana - W
A #21 Maryland - L
A #33 Michigan State - W
A #34 Illinois - L
N #36 Auburn - L
N #40 Liberty - W
A #43 Iowa - L
A #55 Michigan - L
A #63 Ohio State - W
A #72 Wisconsin - W
QUAD 2 (4-4)
H #32 Rutgers - L
H #34 Illinois - W
H #43 Iowa - W
H #53 Pittsburgh - L
H #55 Michigan - L
H #63 Ohio State - L
H #72 Wisconsin - W
A #92 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (1-0)
A #227 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #166 DePaul - W
H #178 Brown - W
H #231 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #237 Minnesota - W
H #250 Northern Illinois - W
H #275 Prairie View A&M - W
H #282 Chicago State - W
H #285 UIC - W
The final two regular season games are a Quad 2 home game against Penn State and a Quad 1 road game at Rutgers.
QUAD 1 (7-5)
H #5 Purdue - W
H #18 Indiana - W
A #18 Indiana - W
A #21 Maryland - L
A #33 Michigan State - W
A #34 Illinois - L
N #36 Auburn - L
N #40 Liberty - W
A #43 Iowa - L
A #55 Michigan - L
A #63 Ohio State - W
A #72 Wisconsin - W
QUAD 2 (4-4)
H #32 Rutgers - L
H #34 Illinois - W
H #43 Iowa - W
H #53 Pittsburgh - L
H #55 Michigan - L
H #63 Ohio State - L
H #72 Wisconsin - W
A #92 Nebraska - W
QUAD 3 (1-0)
A #227 Georgetown - W
QUAD 4 (8-0)
H #166 DePaul - W
H #178 Brown - W
H #231 Purdue Fort Wayne - W
H #237 Minnesota - W
H #250 Northern Illinois - W
H #275 Prairie View A&M - W
H #282 Chicago State - W
H #285 UIC - W
"Shafting?"Fact of the matter is that most of the mid-majors have a lot better chance to win their way in via conference tourney than many power6 teams do, who are often going up against annual Final Four contenders. And their schedules just aren't as taxing. Example: Liberty, a team we beat by 14. They finished 15-3 in Atlantic Sun play, tied for first with Kennesaw State, a team that lost at Indiana by 12. And Liberty beat Bradley by 11 at Cancun and Bradley won the Valley at 16-4. How about Dayton, tied for 2nd at 11-5 in the Atlantic Ten. Lost to Wisconsin, NC state, BYU, Va. Tech. But they did rout by, 28 pts, the winner of the Big South, NC Asheville, who finished 16-2 in their league. Even Conf USA leader Florida Atlantic, who might qualify for an atlarge with a glowing Net rating of 19, had one of their two losses come by 13 at Ole Miss, who just fired their coach. Their best win was by 2 at Florida, another SEC also ran. Credit to them for no bad losses and a lot of quad2-quad 3 wins.
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