2023-24 NET ratings thread
- Thread starter Styre
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So ... what it boils down to ... is the reason we aren't a 6 or 7 seed projected -- is we didn't blow out bad teams.
Given our BTT history, that ranks up there with @CappyNU analysis of how we can win the regular season title
It’s so dumb. Like we’ve won the freaking games, but not by enough points according to the models. Any model that likes Michigan State over Northwestern because they lose close games at this point should be shot into the sun.
Any time a B1G team loses to us, the fans immediately call for the coach to be fired
If we beat Michigan State again, we'd still be "ranked" 20 spots below them. Smh.
if we beat them by 45, Ken Pom will think we're as good as they are.
I believe we were 5 point dogs. It was a Quad one win for us but I think it was a Quad 2 loss for them. And regardless a win helps more than a loss
I think his point was that a win doesn't necessarily help.
It has to be a win that exceeds expectations.
Otherwise it hurts.
And of course, a loss by less than expected also helps.
Which makes it clear why the NET is flawed.
Ha yeah that guy’s math was off… we are at an 8 verging on a 7 right now. He was off by approximately 1 win or 1 seed in the bearish direction. In my opinion. We will see!
We are 19 in strength of record right now. 42 in KenPom. 37 in BPI, 48 in NET.
Let’s just beat Iowa. Gonna be a tough one. We’ve gutted out the last couple with defense and rebounding. To beat Iowa we will need to score. Langborg back would be very useful.
We are finally above MSU on the bracket site. Probably only until their next win…
here's an interesting table showing NET score rankings by game. Winning close games against Western Michigan and Binghamton really hurt us.
Source: https://bboilercbb.github.io/index.html
Source: https://bboilercbb.github.io/index.html
So looking at this, the Big Ten would be in three different 8/9 games (NU, MSU, Nebraska). And given that the winner of those games usually loses the next round (let's change that Cats!), it will somehow be taken as evidence that the Big Ten is bad again, although it's more likely it'll be how far Purdue goes that will drive that narrative this year.
All the more reason why it's a perfect opportunity for a senior-laden team led by an All-American point guard to go super far this year!
Excellent workhere's an interesting table showing NET score rankings by game. Winning close games against Western Michigan and Binghamton really hurt us.
Source: https://bboilercbb.github.io/index.html
Sadly it not that non-con schedule wasn’t better - it’s that NU did not blowout bad teams. They had way to many games that were uninspired wins
So WINS over Bing and WMU were so bad that they overwhelm the positives of wins over PU and Dayton. Got it.
Thank the Lord football doesn't do this nonsense
For everybody complaining about MSU and their underwhelming conference performance, take a look at their non conference achievements and challenges. It’s easy to see why they have plenty of respect.
Right, if you want a predictive system to think you are a good team, you need to blow out bad teams, not get blown out by good teams, and play close games or get blow out wins against good teams. It's pretty simple.
Binghamton, W. Michigan, Chicago State, Jackson State, @Illinois and #Mississippi State all hurt our rating significantly, along with having a NC SOS of 288. #ASU, MSU, OSU, @Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan, @Maryland all helped our rating significantly. Specifically, we dug ourselves a huge hole with the Chicago State loss and we only really recovered from that following the OSU blow out win.
| Date | Opponent | Should | Did | Record | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 11/6/2023 | vs Binghamton 278 | W 78.67 - 58.37 | W 72-61 | 1-0 | ▼ 13.84 |
| Fri 11/10/2023 | vs Dayton 26 | W 68.27 - 66.96 | W 71-66 | 2-0 | ▲ 5.55 |
| Tue 11/14/2023 | vs W. Michigan 319 | W 81.95 - 57.63 | W 63-59 | 3-0 | ▼ 30.57 |
| Sat 11/18/2023 | vs URI 250 * | W 81.94 - 65.79 | W 72-61 | 4-0 | ▼ 3.74 |
| Sun 11/19/2023 | vs Miss. State 32 * | L 67.55 - 68.37 | L 57-66 | 4-1 | ▼ 22.46 |
| Mon 11/27/2023 | vs N. Illinois 317 | W 83.38 - 59.48 | W 89-67 | 5-1 | ▲ 3.95 |
| Fri 12/1/2023 | vs Purdue 2 | L 69.45 - 76.17 | W 92-88 (OT) | 6-1 | ▲ 9.60 |
| Sun 12/10/2023 | vs Detroit Mercy 352 | W 83.73 - 55.26 | W 91-59 | 7-1 | ▲ 4.11 |
| Wed 12/13/2023 | vs Chicago State 303 | W 77.41 - 55.67 | L 73-75 | 7-2 | ▼ 35.02 |
| Sat 12/16/2023 | @ DePaul 320 | W 79.77 - 61.99 | W 56-46 | 8-2 | ▼ 5.32 |
| Wed 12/20/2023 | vs Arizona State 128 * | W 73.21 - 64.88 | W 65-46 | 9-2 | ▲ 17.55 |
| Fri 12/29/2023 | vs Jackson State 295 | W 80.88 - 58.69 | W 74-63 | 10-2 | ▼ 12.36 |
| Tue 1/2/2024 | @ Illinois 15 | L 72.48 - 80.03 | L 66-96 | 10-3 | ▼ 51.47 |
| Sun 1/7/2024 | vs Michigan State 18 | L 66.58 - 66.80 | W 88-74 | 11-3 | ▲ 25.56 |
| Wed 1/10/2024 | @ Penn State 75 | W 72.87 - 72.29 | W 76-72 | 12-3 | ▲ 6.67 |
| Sat 1/13/2024 | @ Wisconsin 27 | L 67.07 - 71.48 | L 63-71 | 12-4 | ▼ 6.02 |
| Wed 1/17/2024 | vs Maryland 45 | W 66.32 - 62.51 | W 72-69 | 13-4 | ▲ 0.02 |
| Sat 1/20/2024 | @ Nebraska 34 | L 68.92 - 72.96 | L 69-75 | 13-5 | ▼ 3.10 |
| Wed 1/24/2024 | vs Illinois 15 | L 75.81 - 76.71 | W 96-91 (OT) | 14-5 | ▲ 1.60 |
| Sat 1/27/2024 | vs Ohio State 53 | W 70.99 - 65.93 | W 83-58 | 15-5 | ▲ 48.25 |
| Wed 1/31/2024 | @ Purdue 2 | L 66.19 - 79.42 | L 96-105 (OT) | 15-6 | ▲ 17.79 |
| Sat 2/3/2024 | @ Minnesota 69 | W 71.50 - 71.40 | L 66-75 (OT) | 15-7 | ▼ 1.75 |
| Wed 2/7/2024 | vs Nebraska 34 | W 72.24 - 69.61 | W 80-68 | 16-7 | ▲ 12.97 |
| Sun 2/11/2024 | vs Penn State 75 | W 76.24 - 68.96 | W 68-63 | 17-7 | ▼ 1.53 |
| Thu 2/15/2024 | @ Rutgers 96 | W 66.10 - 63.39 | L 60-63 | 17-8 | ▼ 8.26 |
| Sun 2/18/2024 | @ Indiana 102 | W 72.15 - 68.89 | W 76-72 | 18-8 | ▲ 3.39 |
| Thu 2/22/2024 | vs Michigan 120 | W 76.69 - 65.72 | W 76-62 | 19-8 | ▲ 14.98 |
| Wed 2/28/2024 | @ Maryland 45 | L 63.16 - 65.65 | W 68-61 | 20-8 | ▲ 13.37 |
Again, though, the committee is looking at wins and losses, and our strength of record is excellent. Per Torvik, our most impactful wins this year have been Purdue, @Maryland, Illinois, MSU, @PSU, @IU, Dayton, Nebraska. If we win @MSU, that will become our best win of the year. Most damaging losses are Chicago State, @Rutgers, @Minnesota and #Miss State. Torvik currently has us at 97% to make the tourney. NET aside, we are in very good shape.
Edited to add:
Comparing to MSU, who certainly dug themselves a hole early on as well. Their most impactful wins are #Baylor, @Maryland, Illinois, @PSU, @Michigan, and their most damaging losses are James Madison, OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, @Minnesota. Accordingly, their strength of record is significantly worse than ours, though they can make that up by winning their last 3 games.
However, from a predictive standpoint, they don't have a loss nearly as bad as ours @Illinois or Chicago State, but they largely blew out their bad opponents along with beating an excellent Baylor team by 24, a mediocre Stony Brook team by 44, a bad Alcorn State by 32, a bad Georgia Southern by 31, a Horizon league title-winning Oakland team by 17, Penn State by 31, Butler by 20. So whether you agree with the principles behind it or not, the predictive system is going to see a team demolishing opponents as a better one than a team that squeaks by opponents, especially a team with a NC SOS of 28 that MSU has.
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I addressed this in another thread last Friday, which I copied below. Records have changed a bit, but the point still applies:
"Michigan State, a team with a worse conference record than us, has a 3-8 Quad 1 record, a 6-2 Quad 2 record, (9-10 versus Quad 1/Quad 2), and lost to us by 14 points...is a 7 seed. To their credit, as they always do, they played an absolute juggernaut of a non-conference schedule, but they lost nearly all of those. Credit to them for having a tough schedule, but what's the value in that if you lose most of them?"
To me, they deserve credit for playing a really tough OOC schedule, but what's the value in that if they lose most of those games? Losing a close game should not be weighed "just slightly worse" than winning a close game. This is the primary flaw in the NET formula. It doesn't give proper weight to actually winning a game versus losing it. It's just all about expected outcome versus actual outcome. For example, we lost by 9 at Purdue in overtime. Because we lost by 9, we don't get nearly the credit we deserve for playing Purdue to the teeth and having a legit opportunity to win the game at the end of regulation. It doesn't factor in that it was a 3 point game with 10 seconds left in OT before a bad call set things off the rails.
So, to the point, Michigan State played a really tough schedule. Congratulations...they should have won more of them.
As I do see a bit of value in deviation to the expected, couldn't those systems just slash the totals in 1/2 in case of a win? Ultimately wins and losses are what count. Never saw a team reaching the final four loosing every game by 1. And, according to the NET, Wright State should play for the natty is they loose every (tournament) game by 1.
Same with overtime, couldn't that be automatically a 1 pt win or loss?
Great table, love it
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The Michigan game looks incorrect. Only a few points off of the expected outcome.
In my ratings, if a game goes to OT, I use half of the point differential.
If it goes to double OT, I say the winner won the game by 0.1 points.
I modify the scores to reflect that.
Ken Pom and Torvik and NET seem unwilling to do that, which is to their detriment.
Not my table, take it up with haslametrics.com. Seems the high rating is due to our better than expected adjusted offensive efficiency.
For what it's worth, he has MSU ranked 18th and us 36th, but also has us as a 6-seed and MSU a 10-seed in his bracket prediction.
For what its worth, I started looking into NET and KenPom a few months ago.
I'm thinking the smart money looks at KenPom as a tool for bad bettors to use as a basis to bet. And the smart money wins by betting against.
Lunardi has us at 8th seed today
Men's Bracketology: Gonzaga is a 1-seed again ... as you were
It's been one day of 2024-25 play and we already have a new 1-seed. The Zags aren't new to the top line, though.
www.espn.com
I have a one rule for betting. Never bet on the away big ten team (I break this rule when NU is away. I will never against them and always put a little bet on the money line). Just following that has done me very well this season.
TL/DR. Predictive metrics had us in December as one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. We're about to clinch a double bye. I'm going with Predictive Metrics Suck at being predictive.
Minnesota is incredible against the spread this year. If you take out Michigan, Michigan St. and Iowa, B1G underdogs are covering at a 2:1 rate.
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