Reggie Ragland ILB Alabama 2 10(41) Buffalo
Nick Vigil ILB Utah State 3 24(87) Cincinnati
Joshua Perry ILB Ohio State 4 4(102) San Diego
B.J. Goodson ILB Clemson 4 11(109) NY Giants
Nick Kwiatkoski ILB West Virginia 4 15(113) Chicago
Blake Martinez ILB Stanford 4 33(131) Green Bay
Kentrell Brothers ILB Missouri 5 21(160) Minnesota
Josh Forrest ILB Kentucky 6 15(190) Los Angeles
Elandon Roberts ILB Houston 6 39(214) New England
Steven Daniels ILB Boston College 7 11(232) Washington
Tyler Matakevich ILB Temple 7 25(246) Pittsburgh
Scooby Wright III ILB Arizona 7 29(250) Cleveland
Joe Walker ILB Oregon 7 30(251) Philadelphia
The thing is, him suffering a serious injury in another year in college has to be about a 25% proposition, one which could damage his draft prospects worse than this year. There's also the chance that he has another "fine" season like this year, and his stock stays flat or maybe goes down a touch. But a couple points from the list above:
1) if he is projected as a ~3-4th round pick (I don't know really but that's my personal guess / sense), then that implies he is a top 5 ILB prospect in the entire NCAA. just realize that there isn't a ton of upside from that level. it's just a tough position to get valued highly at from a draft perspective.
2) i did quick searches on the players above. Ragland obviously suffered his season ending injury, but he'll be back and has a good shot to start next year. by the end of the season two 4th rounders and one 6th rounder (Martinez of GB and Kwiatkoski of Chi, plus Roberts of NE) were starting games. Josh Forrest and Matakevich got a spot start. Most of the others played occasionally it looks like (likely STeams contributors I would think). And I did nothing approaching a detailed search but from one glance on PF reference it looks like Daniels and Walker didn't make the roster.
Initial small sample size conclusions- 4th round and up will likely get a chance to play as a rookie, it's a crapshoot whether you get a chance to start. below that it's more of a crapshoot what your chance to get on the field is, and more of a lottery pick that you get a starting opportunity. NFL teams usually stick with their picks in the top 3-4 rounds for at least a couple years, while later round picks might only get 1 year + a 2nd training camp to prove their worth. Provided AWalk is confident in being selected in the first 3-4 rounds I think he made a good choice. If later than that, I think the risk reward of outcomes favored coming back for another year.
While there is certainly merit to arguments in favor of playing time and "starting the clock" on a second contract while (hopefully) playing well enough to make it pay off in a big way, that's only part of the equation. There's also the facts that (i) somewhere around 65-70% of NFL players don't even get to that second contract and (ii) the dropoff in guaranteed money on rookie contracts from the early to even middle rounds is HUGE.
I haven't been able to find an updated version, but the article here has a fascinating chart displaying signing bonus, guaranteed, and non-guaranteed money by round:
As you can see, signing bonuses decrease rapidly from the first through second rounds and guaranteed money is eliminated entirely by the end of the second round. The best players drafted in the third round or later can hope for is to get a couple hundred thousand in guaranteed money (yes, I know that is still a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but context is what matters here). For a guy like AWalk who's not a surefire first- or second-round pick, the risk of a slide into the middle or later rounds means potentially millions of dollars on the rookie contract with the distinct possibility (in fact, likelihood) that his first NFL contract will be his only NFL contract.
From my perspective, the potential benefit of another healthy, successful year at NU (i.e. a greater likelihood to get drafted in the first two rounds, where the "real money" is made on rookie contracts) outweighed the risk of an unhealthy, unsuccessful year at NU (i.e. greater likelihood to get drafted after the first two rounds, giving up the potential for higher guaranteed initial earnings), which is why I thought Walker would come back for his senior year.
Given that he's already declared for the draft and signed with an agent, AWalk must really like the feedback he got from the NFL Advisory Board and/or NFL front offices and is reasonably sure he will be picked in the first three rounds. Even with that apparent confidence, it's still very possible he gets picked in the middle rounds before signing a contract without much signing bonus/guaranteed money and fizzles out in the NFL before getting to his second contract.
That said... best of luck in The League, Ant... make us all proud.