Anthony Walker not in Daniel Jeramiah's 3 round Mock

[gocatsgo2003]

Reggie Ragland ILB Alabama 2 10(41) Buffalo
Nick Vigil ILB Utah State 3 24(87) Cincinnati
Joshua Perry ILB Ohio State 4 4(102) San Diego
B.J. Goodson ILB Clemson 4 11(109) NY Giants
Nick Kwiatkoski ILB West Virginia 4 15(113) Chicago
Blake Martinez ILB Stanford 4 33(131) Green Bay
Kentrell Brothers ILB Missouri 5 21(160) Minnesota
Josh Forrest ILB Kentucky 6 15(190) Los Angeles
Elandon Roberts ILB Houston 6 39(214) New England
Steven Daniels ILB Boston College 7 11(232) Washington
Tyler Matakevich ILB Temple 7 25(246) Pittsburgh
Scooby Wright III ILB Arizona 7 29(250) Cleveland
Joe Walker ILB Oregon 7 30(251) Philadelphia

The thing is, him suffering a serious injury in another year in college has to be about a 25% proposition, one which could damage his draft prospects worse than this year. There's also the chance that he has another "fine" season like this year, and his stock stays flat or maybe goes down a touch. But a couple points from the list above:
1) if he is projected as a ~3-4th round pick (I don't know really but that's my personal guess / sense), then that implies he is a top 5 ILB prospect in the entire NCAA. just realize that there isn't a ton of upside from that level. it's just a tough position to get valued highly at from a draft perspective.
2) i did quick searches on the players above. Ragland obviously suffered his season ending injury, but he'll be back and has a good shot to start next year. by the end of the season two 4th rounders and one 6th rounder (Martinez of GB and Kwiatkoski of Chi, plus Roberts of NE) were starting games. Josh Forrest and Matakevich got a spot start. Most of the others played occasionally it looks like (likely STeams contributors I would think). And I did nothing approaching a detailed search but from one glance on PF reference it looks like Daniels and Walker didn't make the roster.

Initial small sample size conclusions- 4th round and up will likely get a chance to play as a rookie, it's a crapshoot whether you get a chance to start. below that it's more of a crapshoot what your chance to get on the field is, and more of a lottery pick that you get a starting opportunity. NFL teams usually stick with their picks in the top 3-4 rounds for at least a couple years, while later round picks might only get 1 year + a 2nd training camp to prove their worth. Provided AWalk is confident in being selected in the first 3-4 rounds I think he made a good choice. If later than that, I think the risk reward of outcomes favored coming back for another year.

While there is certainly merit to arguments in favor of playing time and "starting the clock" on a second contract while (hopefully) playing well enough to make it pay off in a big way, that's only part of the equation. There's also the facts that (i) somewhere around 65-70% of NFL players don't even get to that second contract and (ii) the dropoff in guaranteed money on rookie contracts from the early to even middle rounds is HUGE.

I haven't been able to find an updated version, but the article here has a fascinating chart displaying signing bonus, guaranteed, and non-guaranteed money by round:

As you can see, signing bonuses decrease rapidly from the first through second rounds and guaranteed money is eliminated entirely by the end of the second round. The best players drafted in the third round or later can hope for is to get a couple hundred thousand in guaranteed money (yes, I know that is still a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but context is what matters here). For a guy like AWalk who's not a surefire first- or second-round pick, the risk of a slide into the middle or later rounds means potentially millions of dollars on the rookie contract with the distinct possibility (in fact, likelihood) that his first NFL contract will be his only NFL contract.

From my perspective, the potential benefit of another healthy, successful year at NU (i.e. a greater likelihood to get drafted in the first two rounds, where the "real money" is made on rookie contracts) outweighed the risk of an unhealthy, unsuccessful year at NU (i.e. greater likelihood to get drafted after the first two rounds, giving up the potential for higher guaranteed initial earnings), which is why I thought Walker would come back for his senior year.

Given that he's already declared for the draft and signed with an agent, AWalk must really like the feedback he got from the NFL Advisory Board and/or NFL front offices and is reasonably sure he will be picked in the first three rounds. Even with that apparent confidence, it's still very possible he gets picked in the middle rounds before signing a contract without much signing bonus/guaranteed money and fizzles out in the NFL before getting to his second contract.

That said... best of luck in The League, Ant... make us all proud.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

What does not being Alabama have anything to do with it? You don't think we have a shot at the Big Ten Championship next year? I do and I believe Walker would have benefited greatly from playing healthy all year and being the leader of an emerging NU team that is sure to get a lot of exposure if we end up winning the West and playing in a Big Ten championship game. That's all that's being said in this thread.

Alabama was brought up because the players referenced as improving their stock were from Alabama. It was likely they stayed because 1) they had a real shot at another NC or 2) they would become the prominent players of a defense AFTER several players defected for the NFL. Look, selfishly I had hoped he stayed too, but there is no way I personally would have stayed if I graded out in the first 3 rounds. We'll just have to disagree on if he would have benefitted greatly from staying and we'll never know for sure.

 

[ricko654321]

While there is certainly merit to arguments in favor of playing time and "starting the clock" on a second contract while (hopefully) playing well enough to make it pay off in a big way, that's only part of the equation. There's also the facts that (i) somewhere around 65-70% of NFL players don't even get to that second contract and (ii) the dropoff in guaranteed money on rookie contracts from the early to even middle rounds is HUGE.

I haven't been able to find an updated version, but the article here has a fascinating chart displaying signing bonus, guaranteed, and non-guaranteed money by round:

As you can see, signing bonuses decrease rapidly from the first through second rounds and guaranteed money is eliminated entirely by the end of the second round. The best players drafted in the third round or later can hope for is to get a couple hundred thousand in guaranteed money (yes, I know that is still a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but context is what matters here). For a guy who's not a surefire first- or second-round pick like AWalk, the risk of a slide into the middle or later rounds means potentially millions of dollars on the rookie contract with the distinct possibility (in fact, likelihood) that your first NFL contract will be your only NFL contract.

From my perspective, the potential benefit of another healthy, successful year at NU (i.e. a greater likelihood to get drafted in the first two rounds, where the "real money" is made on rookie contracts) outweighed the risk of an unhealthy, unsuccessful year at NU (i.e. greater likelihood to get drafted after the first two rounds, giving up the potential for higher guaranteed initial earnings), which is why I thought Walker would come back for his senior year.

Given that he's already declared for the draft and signed with an agent, AWalk must really like the feedback he got from the NFL Advisory Board and/or NFL front offices and is reasonably sure he will be picked in the first three rounds. Even with that apparent confidence, it's still very possible he gets picked in the middle rounds before signing a contract without much signing bonus/guaranteed money and fizzles out in the NFL before getting to his second contract.

That said... best of luck in The League, Ant... make us all proud.

yeah, i get your argument, it's sensible. the counter argument i'm making is just that it's really really tough to get to the point where you are a 1st or 2nd round pick as an ILB. i would discount the early projections a year back that said he had first round talent - while certainly possible those change a bunch season to season.

i'm sure there are a few Bama or OSU or whatever crazy athletes who've been sitting on the bench behind top tier NFL LBs that will emerge this season and he will have to compete with to top the position ranks. i think he'd likely need to have a year better than his sophomore year to get to that 1st/ early 2nd level - which is an awfully high bar.

also left unsaid here is his personal / family situation - i have absolutely zero idea but it's possible that plays into things in some way, and it made sense for them to try to get into the league earlier and ensure some lower level of guaranteed $ vs take another year at NU, or that something else we haven't considered has influenced the decision.

in any event, as you said - best of luck to Anthony, we'll be cheering hard for you!!

 

[gocatsgo2003]

yeah, i get your argument, it's sensible. the counter argument i'm making is just that it's really really tough to get to the point where you are a 1st or 2nd round pick as an ILB. i would discount the early projections a year back that said he had first round talent - while certainly possible those change a bunch season to season.

i'm sure there are a few Bama or OSU or whatever crazy athletes who've been sitting on the bench behind top tier NFL LBs that will emerge this season and he will have to compete with to top the position ranks. i think he'd likely need to have a year better than his sophomore year to get to that 1st/ early 2nd level - which is an awfully high bar.

also left unsaid here is his personal / family situation - i have absolutely zero idea but it's possible that plays into things in some way, and it made sense for them to try to get into the league earlier and ensure some lower level of guaranteed $ vs take another year at NU, or that something else we haven't considered has influenced the decision.

in any event, as you said - best of luck to Anthony, we'll be cheering hard for you!!

It's tough, but it's also where many draft boards had AWalk after the 2015 season as you said. Discount those projections if you want, but it's also what I was hearing out of people at NU. AWalk's balky knee during camp this season (and the resulting sluggish speed in the first third of the season or so) is the reason his draft stock is currently what it is.

With another year like 2015 (and maybe an insurance policy in his back pocket), he could have made himself a LOT more money on his first (and likely only) contract if he had another successful year at NU in 2017 with the only downside being a later start to his "clock."

Here's another piece to the puzzle: AWalk is still only 21 (born 8/8/1995) and will play his first NFL season at 22. While that's not necessarily "young" for the NFL where guys come out early all the time, it isn't really "old" either, especially for a guy who took a redshirt year. If he stayed at NU for his "age 22 season" and entered the NFL for his "age 23 season," he would still have plenty of "good years" left to try getting that second contract while (hopefully) earning more on his rookie contract with a good 2017 season at NU.

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

No wrong option - I see the pros and cons of both sides. I personally agree with his decision to 'bet on himself' so to speak to get to that second and even third contract payoff like nick roach.

 

[gocatsgo2003]

No wrong option - I see the pros and cons of both sides. I personally agree with his decision to 'bet on himself' so to speak to get to that second and even third contract payoff like nick roach.

Maybe not the best example, considering that Nick played out his full eligibility at NU and went undrafted.

 

[corbi296]

Alabama was brought up because the players referenced as improving their stock were from Alabama. It was likely they stayed because 1) they had a real shot at another NC or 2) they would become the prominent players of a defense AFTER several players defected for the NFL. Look, selfishly I had hoped he stayed too, but there is no way I personally would have stayed if I graded out in the first 3 rounds. We'll just have to disagree on if he would have benefitted greatly from staying and we'll never know for sure.

I agree with you as I said earlier that I thought the decision was the correct one if he is drafted in the top 3 rounds. If he is not ( I think there is a chance he isn't) then he clearly would have been better off financially if he had stayed in school.

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

Maybe not the best example, considering that Nick played out his full eligibility at NU and went undrafted.

Point about roach was the big paydays he got by sticking around the league and not having to rely on that top 20 pick bonus money,

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Point about roach was the big paydays he got by sticking around the league and not having to rely on that top 20 pick bonus money,

Conversely, he's in the minority for even having gotten to the second contract (to say nothing of the third).

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

Conversely, he's in the minority for even having gotten to the second contract (to say nothing of the third).

What's a bigger minority - getting a second and third contract or being a first round draft pick - tough odds either way.

 

[Mr Wickerpark]

At least Walker can hang his hat on the fact that he graduated, but nonetheless I think he could have really improved his draft stock by sticking around one more year and playing the

Starting worry that Anthony made the wrong call to go back. ILB is not a position that is generally highly regarded and the draft is very deep this year.

At least Walker can hang his hat on the fact that he graduated, but nonetheless I think he could have really improved his draft stock by sticking around one more year and playing the full season healthy.

6th round flyer but Im not sure he sticks. But he got his degree, got a nice bowl win at the end so im not sure why he comes back?
He wants to give the NFL a shot and he is very healthy so its now or never. I dont think he had any illusions of being a first day draftee.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Shhhh...don't tell the Chiefs.

 

[Medill '03]

Shhhh...don't tell the Chiefs.

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An outstanding fit for him. Great team but absolutely desperate for leadership and youth at ILB with Johnson likely done for good.

 

[DaCat]

If Ant kills it at the Combine like Lowry and Vitale did last year, he could be a 2nd rounder. TC Boost, baby!

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

An outstanding fit for him. Great team but absolutely desperate for leadership and youth at ILB with Johnson likely done for good.

I see the Giants and the Dolphins as a couple of potential landing spots for Ant. Both in real need of LBs. Would like to see him in either city.

 

[Deeringfish]

Shhhh...don't tell the Chiefs.

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We need to fan that flame not the jNU doubter's mantra.

Some of the big draft lottery is perception which is why some first round guys flame out. Ant is a leader and an intellectual player, disciplined on the field and in his personal life. Some things can't be measured imperically at the combine or even on the field.

 

[Gladeskat]

We need to fan that flame not the jNU doubter's mantra.

Some of the big draft lottery is perception which is why some first round guys flame out. Ant is a leader and an intellectual player, disciplined on the field and in his personal life. Some things can't be measured imperically at the combine or even on the field.

They can be assessed in media research, personal interviews, and interviews with his college coaches. Connor Cook took a beating last year for having a sketchy personality. He looked horrible last year as the 3rd string QB for Oakland. Far worse than Trevor Siemian.