Assuming Wisconsin and Iowa Win, If NU Beats Illinois - We go to Phoenix, Otherwise Detroit

[Sheffielder]

This was stated earlier in the thread, but direct text from the Big Ten Conference Bowl Overview document:

"ReliaQuest Bowl (vs. SEC; Tampa, FL)• Will feature at least five different Big Ten teams over six-year agreement 2023: No Illinoiso Note: The ACC replaces the Big Ten in the ReliaQuest Bowl when the Big Ten is selected to playin a non-Semifinal Orange Bowl"

At this point, barring chaos theories playing out, Michigan will play in the CFP, while Ohio State and Penn State will get NY6 bids (unless Ole Miss jumps Penn State in the rankings, which seems implausible).

This sends Iowa to the Citrus Bowl, leaving Music City, Vegas, Pinstripe, and Guaranteed Rate (in that order) to pick from NU, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and UMD.

According to B1G document, Vegas cannot pick Sconnie.

It seems Music City picks first and it seems obvious they'd pick Wisconsin, since they've never played there before. (EDIT: Apparently they played there 20 years ago, but I missed it)

Vegas picks next...and could take any one of the three of us (NU, UMD, Rutgers). They're not taking Rutgers over Maryland. Objectively, we beat Maryland on all three of: head-to-head, geography, and storyline. Sure they could take Maryland, or 6-6 Rutgers over us...I just don't see either being a logical choice. If Utah is the likely Pac-12 selection, then I guess there could be a question of the bowl committee favoring a first-time UMD vs. Utah matchup vs. a 2019 Holiday Bowl rematch...

Pinstripe picks next and should take Rutgers if available...as they haven't played there in a decade.

Then UMD goes to Phoenix.

However...

If Vegas picks Maryland, then Pinstripe still takes Rutgers and we go to Phoenix.

If Vegas picks Rutgers, then you have to ask yourself if you think Pinstripe would take Maryland again after hosting them in 2021 (vs. VaTech...lowest attendance in the history of that bowl, btw). If so, then we still go to Phoenix...but if you think UMD is undesirable to Pinstripe to land there again for the second time in three years, then we head back to NYC.

I'm betting Vegas.

 

[freewillie07]

This was stated earlier in the thread, but direct text from the Big Ten Conference Bowl Overview document:

"ReliaQuest Bowl (vs. SEC; Tampa, FL)• Will feature at least five different Big Ten teams over six-year agreement 2023: No Illinoiso Note: The ACC replaces the Big Ten in the ReliaQuest Bowl when the Big Ten is selected to playin a non-Semifinal Orange Bowl"

At this point, barring chaos theories playing out, Michigan will play in the CFP, while Ohio State and Penn State will get NY6 bids (unless Ole Miss jumps Penn State in the rankings, which seems implausible).

This sends Iowa to the Citrus Bowl, leaving Music City, Vegas, Pinstripe, and Guaranteed Rate (in that order) to pick from NU, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and UMD.

According to B1G document, Vegas cannot pick Sconnie.

It seems Music City picks first and it seems obvious they'd pick Wisconsin, since they've never played there before.

Vegas picks next...and could take any one of the three of us (NU, UMD, Rutgers). They're not taking Rutgers over Maryland. Objectively, we beat Maryland on all three of: head-to-head, geography, and storyline. Sure they could take Maryland, or 6-6 Rutgers over us...I just don't see either being a logical choice. If Utah is the likely Pac-12 selection, then I guess there could be a question of the bowl committee favoring a first-time UMD vs. Utah matchup vs. a 2019 Holiday Bowl rematch...

Pinstripe picks next and should take Rutgers if available...as they haven't played there in a decade.

Then UMD goes to Phoenix.

However...

If Vegas picks Maryland, then Pinstripe still takes Rutgers and we go to Phoenix.

If Vegas picks Rutgers, then you have to ask yourself if you think Pinstripe would take Maryland again after hosting them in 2021 (vs. VaTech...lowest attendance in the history of that bowl, btw). If so, then we still go to Phoenix...but if you think UMD is undesirable to Pinstripe to land there again for the second time in three years, then we head back to NYC.

I'm betting Vegas.

All fair points. I’m not as convinced that NU is overwhelmingly more desirable than Maryland, but there’s definitely a case to be made.

 

[Alaskawildkat]

At this point, a week later, it looks like it is going to be between us and Maryland as to which team goes to Phoenix and/or Vegas. HailtoPurple.com, and Sporting News have the Wildcats getting Las Vegas which picks before Phoenix.

FWIW the Detroit Free Press - quoted in the original post -has upped Northwestern to Las Vegas now that Illinois is no longer in the picture:

"Due to contractual obligations, the remaining Big Ten bowl possibilities are, in order of selection: Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl. The conference gives up its spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl in any season in which a Big Ten team is selected for the Orange Bowl, which Ohio State is slated to do in this projection.
Here’s how the rest of the Big Ten’s teams are projected:

• Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. LSU
• Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M
• Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah
• Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Georgia Tech
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Maryland vs. Kansas
• Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Toledo"

 

[Alaskawildkat]

As to the prognosticators who are slotting Northwestern for Phoenix, both Fox Sports and Athlon now have Northwestern going to Phoenix against Kansas. ESPN's Alaska legend Schlabach is in step also having the Wildcats going to Phoenix, although he sees our opponent there as West Virginia.

ESPN's Bonagura is the outlier who picks NU for a bowl being played in a location other than Las Vegas or Phoenix. He has us moving up in the pecking order to play in Nashville's Music City Bowl against Auburn.

 

[freewillie07]

At this point, a week later, it looks like it is going to be between us and Maryland as to which team goes to Phoenix and/or Vegas. HailtoPurple.com, and Sporting News have the Wildcats getting Las Vegas which picks before Phoenix.

FWIW the Detroit Free Press - quoted in the original post -has upped Northwestern to Las Vegas now that Illinois is no longer in the picture:

"Due to contractual obligations, the remaining Big Ten bowl possibilities are, in order of selection: Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl. The conference gives up its spot in the ReliaQuest Bowl in any season in which a Big Ten team is selected for the Orange Bowl, which Ohio State is slated to do in this projection.
Here’s how the rest of the Big Ten’s teams are projected:

• Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. LSU
• Music City Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M
• Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah
• Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Georgia Tech
• Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Maryland vs. Kansas
• Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Toledo"

Not loving the Utah or Kansas matchups. Pinstripe might be most winnable but Rutgers is basically a lock.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Not loving the Utah or Kansas matchups. Pinstripe might be most winnable but Rutgers is basically a lock.

Utah is like on their 5th string QB.

 

[gradeck]

ESPN's Bonagura is the outlier who picks NU for a bowl being played in a location other than Las Vegas or Phoenix. He has us moving up in the pecking order to play in Nashville's Music City Bowl against Auburn.

That is most likely because he is erroneously projecting Ohio State to the Orange Bowl and Wisconsin to the Reliaquest (f/k/a Outback) bowl. The Big Ten cannot play in both of those bowls in the same season.

 

[Sheffielder]

Just to add some detail here...Pac-12 selection process goes, in order:

CFP/NY6
Valero Alamo - Washington & Oregon last two to play there
Directv Holiday - Oregon & (technically) UCLA (forfeited hours before kickoff)
SRS Dist Las Vegas - Oregon State & Arizona State
Tony the Tiger Sun - UCLA & Wazzu
Jimmy Kimmel LA - Wazzu & Oregon State

This year, I think both Washington and Oregon will be in the NY6 regardless of who wins/loses on Friday. Offenses draw eyeballs.

Arizona (9-3) goes to Alamo - pretty much a lock
Oregon State (8-4, H2H win over Utes) goes to Holiday, where they have NEVER played - pretty much a lock
Utah (8-4) goes to Vegas...

USC and UCLA are both 7-5. Although neither of these teams have played in Vegas in the past 10 years, Utah hasn't been since 2015, so it's been a while. I suspect USC won't be an attractive pick since Caleb Williams probably won't play.

So...USC to Sun, UCLA stays in LA, and no one here cares where Cal lands. Done and done.

 

[Sheffielder]

And on the Big XII front...

1. NY6 = Texas
2. Alamo = OU or Ok State...doesn't matter to us.
3. Pop Tarts = OU or Ok State...doesn't matter to us.
4. Texas = shrug...but Texas Tech and K State were last two to play there.
5. Liberty = shrug...but KU and Texas Tech were last two to play there.
6. Guaranteed Rate = shrug...but Ok State and WVU were last to play there.
7. First Responder or Armed Forces = I don't care.
8. Independence = I don't care.

For Texas/Liberty/Rate...WVU, KU, and K State are all 8-4. K State beat KU straight up, and WVU played neither of the Kansas schools. Total coin flip. If Texas & Liberty just flip the Kansas schools they've hosted recently, that leaves the Rate to pick WVU which just played there two years ago...unless they pass and take 7-5 Iowa State, which could actually be a really fun game.

 

[Evanstonian]

Utah is like on their 5th string QB.

But their starter is expected to be back for their bowl game.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

But their starter is expected to be back for their bowl game.

Then we have a big problem.

 

[FlorhamPark]

If Vegas picks Rutgers, then you have to ask yourself if you think Pinstripe would take Maryland again after hosting them in 2021 (vs. VaTech...lowest attendance in the history of that bowl, btw). If so, then we still go to Phoenix...but if you think UMD is undesirable to Pinstripe to land there again for the second time in three years, then we head back to NYC.

I'm betting Vegas.

Rutgers fan here. There is zero chance we are going to Vegas on a 4-game losing streak, especially after Saturday's debacle against Maryland. Anything but Pinstripe for us would be an absolute stunner at this point.

 

[wildcatpn]

Then we have a big problem.

When he says they’re getting their starter back he means Bryson Barnes who got hurt in the Arizona game(I think) and actually was like 4th string coming into the season.

Cam Rising was their stud who tore up his knee against Penn State in their bowl game last season. He’s missed the whole season even though he had hoped to be back for one more season.

So although Barnes has been their starter for half of this season he got benched earlier in the season for poor play and then started again for some games before getting hurt. He’s thrown for 12 TDs and 9 ints.

Bottom line, nothing NU or anyone else should be scared of.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

When he says they’re getting their starter back he means Bryson Barnes who got hurt in the Arizona game(I think) and actually was like 4th string coming into the season.

Cam Rising was their stud who tore up his knee against Penn State in their bowl game last season. He’s missed the whole season even though he had hoped to be back for one more season.

So although Barnes has been their starter for half of this season he got benched earlier in the season for poor play and then started again for some games before getting hurt. He’s thrown for 12 TDs and 9 ints.

Bottom line, nothing NU or anyone else should be scared of.

I thought I saw one (or maybe two) other QB’s just announced they’ll be transferring?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

When he says they’re getting their starter back he means Bryson Barnes who got hurt in the Arizona game(I think) and actually was like 4th string coming into the season.

Cam Rising was their stud who tore up his knee against Penn State in their bowl game last season. He’s missed the whole season even though he had hoped to be back for one more season.

So although Barnes has been their starter for half of this season he got benched earlier in the season for poor play and then started again for some games before getting hurt. He’s thrown for 12 TDs and 9 ints.

Bottom line, nothing NU or anyone else should be scared of.

I thought he meant Rising. He was good before he went down.

 

[Evanstonian]

I thought he meant Rising. He was good before he went down.

Rising never played this year. Barnes was the starter for most of the year.

 

[ricko654321]

And on the Big XII front...

1. NY6 = Texas
2. Alamo = OU or Ok State...doesn't matter to us.
3. Pop Tarts = OU or Ok State...doesn't matter to us.
4. Texas = shrug...but Texas Tech and K State were last two to play there.
5. Liberty = shrug...but KU and Texas Tech were last two to play there.
6. Guaranteed Rate = shrug...but Ok State and WVU were last to play there.
7. First Responder or Armed Forces = I don't care.
8. Independence = I don't care.

For Texas/Liberty/Rate...WVU, KU, and K State are all 8-4. K State beat KU straight up, and WVU played neither of the Kansas schools. Total coin flip. If Texas & Liberty just flip the Kansas schools they've hosted recently, that leaves the Rate to pick WVU which just played there two years ago...unless they pass and take 7-5 Iowa State, which could actually be a really fun game.

Thanks for these breakdowns btw, very helpful - I had looked at some of the bowl projections but not dug into the details for the other conferences so appreciate.

Not really any bad opponents in there. Utah fans were very friendly and good people, well coached team when we saw them in San Diego. Respect Whittingham and their program. Normally it's nice to get a new opponent, but given they were fun I wouldn't mind a Holiday Bowl rematch. On the Big 12, either K St or Kansas seem like they'd be fun teams to match up against with good fan bases. I'm a bit more uncertain on the WV fanbase but I'm pretty confident they would be more fun to play against than the arrogant SEC folks from e.g. Tennessee, or to a lesser extent Auburn.

Personally I'm hoping for Phoenix bc Dec 26 is better timing and think more folks I know would be able to make that one, but either is a great outcome considering where we were at the start of the season. And all 4 of those teams are reasonable matchups. I think we'd be betting underdogs against any of them, but none is totally frightening, I think we have a decent chance against any of them. And we've already won 5 conference games as betting underdogs this year (3x at 10+ points and 4x at 6+ points), so no reason to be afraid.

 

[BosCat]

As kaTNap reminded us, "order" is Nashville, Vegas, NYC, PHX, Detroit. Key thing is that "picks" aren't independent -- B1G office is orchestrating.

Nash seems only option for Wisconsin. As discussed -- Wisky too recently at Vegas & Phx (in NYC in 2018). No way Wisky sent to Detroit since I think B1G would like Rutg in NYC.

That means it comes down to Vegas/B1G "picking" us or Maryland with the other going to Phx.

 

[nickcat4]

As kaTNap reminded us, "order" is Nashville, Vegas, NYC, PHX, Detroit. Key thing is that "picks" aren't independent -- B1G office is orchestrating.

Nash seems only option for Wisconsin. As discussed -- Wisky too recently at Vegas & Phx (in NYC in 2018). No way Wisky sent to Detroit since I think B1G would like Rutg in NYC.

That means it comes down to Vegas/B1G "picking" us or Maryland with the other going to Phx.

When is the Las Vegas bowl game?

 

[Styre]

When is the Las Vegas bowl game?

Saturday 12/23. National broadcast at 6:30 PM CT on ABC.

 

[BosCat]

When is the Las Vegas bowl game?

https://bigten.org/sports/2022/10/18/22_B1GBowls.aspx

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac-12)
Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
7:30 p.m. ET ESPN

Quick Lane Bowl (Big Ten vs. MAC)
Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023
Ford Field, Detroit, Mich.
2 p.m. ET ESPN

Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12)
Tuesday, Dec. 26, 2023
Chase Field, Phoenix, Ariz.
9 p.m. ET ESPN

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl (Big Ten vs. ACC)
Thursday, Dec. 28, 2023
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y.
2:15 p.m. ET ESPN

Transperfect Music City Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.
2 p.m. ET ESPN

ReliaQuest Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Monday, Jan. 1, 2024
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
Noon ET ESPN2

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC)
Monday, Jan. 1, 2024
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
1 p.m. ET ABC