Attempting to scout Boise

[CappyNU]

This team doesn't fit nicely into a category or two where they have a defined weakness. A few things I've noticed while looking over stats:

They are much worse in road/neutral games than at home, notably on defense.
They have faced few teams like us from a height perspective, and have not done well against those teams on the road.
Against top-100 teams in road/neutral environments, they are 5-7. Three of those wins came before Christmas.
When they score 1.0 points per possession or better, they are 4-2, when they don't, they're 1-5.
When they rebound 28% of their missed shots or more, they are 4-2, when they don't, they're 1-5.
When they take 35% or more of their shots from 3-point range, they are 5-2, when they take fewer, they are 0-5.
On defense, when they hold a team under 1.0 points/possession, they are 3-0, otherwise 2-7.
When they force turnovers on 18% of possessions or fewer, they are 2-6. For our game, 12 will roughly be the magic number. They're 3-1 when they force more turnovers.

Conversely for us, in road/neutral games against top 100 teams, we are 7-6.
Statistically we are wildly better on the road than at home.
When we shoot 26.5% or better from 3-point range, we are 7-1, the lone exception being the loss at Illinois where we shot 31% from inside the arc.
When we hold teams to less than 60% eFG%, we are 7-3, with the losses being the horrific Auburn game, the BTT game and (again) the loss at Illinois.

I think we let Shaver take a lot of shots and hold firm against the others. There shouldn't be a reason to double the post given the height advantage we have. Nicholson or Verhoeven should be able to handle Degenhart inside, though he is also a threat from deep. Beran should stick on Agbo while Audige, Buie and Berry switch off between Rice, Smith and Shaver. When Whiting is in the game, we should go after him aggressively, and when Milner is in the game, our C's should take him while Beran takes Degenhart.

They prefer to drive and score, while we prefer to force teams to pass it around to beat us. Can we force our will on them and generate turnovers? They like to deny passes, can we avoid playing too much hero ball? My gut says we can win this one, the betting community agrees, so we'll see what Thursday brings.

 

[NUCat320]

Pretty amazing that 26.5% is a pivot point for shooting. Just be not-horrible, and the Cats have been good.

Rice is the coach’s son. Less annoying than a McCaffrey tho, but more dangerous than a Hoiberg.

 

[IGNORE2]

This team doesn't fit nicely into a category or two where they have a defined weakness. A few things I've noticed while looking over stats:

They are much worse in road/neutral games than at home, notably on defense.
They have faced few teams like us from a height perspective, and have not done well against those teams on the road.
Against top-100 teams in road/neutral environments, they are 5-7. Three of those wins came before Christmas.
When they score 1.0 points per possession or better, they are 4-2, when they don't, they're 1-5.
When they rebound 28% of their missed shots or more, they are 4-2, when they don't, they're 1-5.
When they take 35% or more of their shots from 3-point range, they are 5-2, when they take fewer, they are 0-5.
On defense, when they hold a team under 1.0 points/possession, they are 3-0, otherwise 2-7.
When they force turnovers on 18% of possessions or fewer, they are 2-6. For our game, 12 will roughly be the magic number. They're 3-1 when they force more turnovers.

Conversely for us, in road/neutral games against top 100 teams, we are 7-6.
Statistically we are wildly better on the road than at home.
When we shoot 26.5% or better from 3-point range, we are 7-1, the lone exception being the loss at Illinois where we shot 31% from inside the arc.
When we hold teams to less than 60% eFG%, we are 7-3, with the losses being the horrific Auburn game, the BTT game and (again) the loss at Illinois.

I think we let Shaver take a lot of shots and hold firm against the others. There shouldn't be a reason to double the post given the height advantage we have. Nicholson or Verhoeven should be able to handle Degenhart inside, though he is also a threat from deep. Beran should stick on Agbo while Audige, Buie and Berry switch off between Rice, Smith and Shaver. When Whiting is in the game, we should go after him aggressively, and when Milner is in the game, our C's should take him while Beran takes Degenhart.

They prefer to drive and score, while we prefer to force teams to pass it around to beat us. Can we force our will on them and generate turnovers? They like to deny passes, can we avoid playing too much hero ball? My gut says we can win this one, the betting community agrees, so we'll see what Thursday brings.

I still think the double on the post is designed for pressure more than scoring defense. They want to force that player into high risk pass following the trap which has led to a lot of turnovers.

 

[CappyNU]

Here's more very detailed information about both teams: https://www.dropbox.com/s/p680kv7ldjnob9w/2023 NCAA Tournament Guide - @Matteise.pdf?dl=0

The relevant pages are 9-16, 30-31, 36, 38, 44, 139, 170-174

Couple things I noted:
On offense, Boise prefers to take spot-up shots (i.e. 3's, pull-up 2's) 26.6% of the time, pick and roll where ball handler drives 11.6% of the time, and post-up 9.5% of the time. Post-ups are their most successful offense from an efficiency standpoint, but I don't think that's going to work as well against our defense.

Meanwhile, on offense for us, our top 3 are spot-up 24.4%, pick and roll with ball handler 16.5%, and taking shots off screens 7.1%. We are most efficient though on pick and roll plays where we go to the roll man (i.e. Nicholbombs).

Defensively, Boise faces the same top 3 on defense as on offense, but spot-up at 21.9%, pnr ball handler at 13.1% and post-up at 12.7%. They are most vulnerable to the post-up game, owing to their small size, so I would love to see Barnhizer, Audige, etc back their men down or work it in to Nicholhoeven.

For us, we face spot-up shots 28.7% of the time, which should be no surprise due to our defensive tendencies allowing lots of 3's, followed by pnr ball handler at 13.3% and then cuts at 8.6%. We are elite to very good at handling post-ups and pnr ball handler drives, which matches up well against them.

Another thing we really need to try and do is to get to the line. Early in the conference season we were great at doing that, but fell off significantly later in the season. Whoever wins the FT battle will have a big advantage in the game.

Miscellaneously, we score fewer points per game than literally every other team in the field, have the 3rd-fewest shots in transition, the 5th-worst transition FG%, the 3rd-worst non-transition FG%, the 2nd-worst FG% on shots at the rim, the worst 2-point FG% period, but the 8th-best turnover rate. Conversely, we allow the 5th-fewest points of any team, however we allow the 7th-most 3-point attempts to be taken.

 

[CappyNU]

Further attempting to make sense of this game tomorrow. I looked at the 15 players who are in the rotation for both teams and their performance in road/neutral games against top-100 teams.

Their starters play about 80% of minutes, while ours play about 71%. Agbo and Degenhart are the best three point shooters on the court. Rice has gaudy numbers on the season but has racked them up against bad teams and in home games. Amazingly, Audige is the next-best 3-point shooter between the teams...at 32.3% in these games.
We need to take advantage of our shot-blocking abilities and rebounding on both ends.
Audige and Berry need to bring their quick hands and get steals, only Shaver is remotely close in swiping the ball.
At the end of the game, if it's close, don't be surprised to see Beran in at the 5 for free throw competence. We are much better than them in that regard.
I hope we don't spend the game chucking up 3's instead of getting it down inside to use our height advantage with Barnhizer, Martinelli, Beran and Nicholhoeven.

Is it game time yet?

 

[Hungry Jack]

I hope we kick Boise all the way to Joise.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

It feels like the two reasonable narratives around this game look like:

Pro-NU:
Boise is good defensively, but doesn't really do anything exceptionally well offensively. They are woefully undersized compared to a Northwestern and don't make up for it with exceptional speed. Their best chance is to probably try to out rock fight us in a defensive game and rely on their veteran players to make big plays.

Pro-BSU
Boise is good defensively and has several guys who are good enough outside shooters to get hot for a game and bury NU in the process. Their effective small ball will take the NU bigs out of the game, neutralizing their advantage on offense, putting great pressure on the BBs, in the style of Penn State. Their defensive strategy excels at forcing teams to make shots, which is NU's weakness.

 

[eastbaycat99]

Thanks, Cappy.

It feels like the two reasonable narratives around this game look like:

Pro-NU:
Boise is good defensively, but doesn't really do anything exceptionally well offensively. They are woefully undersized compared to a Northwestern and don't make up for it with exceptional speed. Their best chance is to probably try to out rock fight us in a defensive game and rely on their veteran players to make big plays.

Pro-BSU
Boise is good defensively and has several guys who are good enough outside shooters to get hot for a game and bury NU in the process. Their effective small ball will take the NU bigs out of the game, neutralizing their advantage on offense, putting great pressure on the BBs, in the style of Penn State. Their defensive strategy excels at forcing teams to make shots, which is NU's weakness.

I think the size differential isn’t that decisive except at the post when Nicholson is in. Their two wings, Agbo and Smith, are both 6’ 7” and reasonably muscular. While Beran is a little bigger, they are both a little bigger than Barnhizer and a few inches bigger than Berry. Shaver and Buie are about the same size as are Rice and Audige.

Degenhart shoots reasonably well from the perimeter and is pretty quick. I’m glad the Cats have the option to go small if that proves a mismatch for Nicholson defensively and inversely if the Cats can’t exploit the considerable size advantage Nicholson has on the offensive end.

To me, the Cats win if Nicholson can score over Degenhart and/or Barnhizer can exploit the absence of a big rim defender. The Cats win if they force Degenhart to the bench. The converse does not necessarily hold true. If Nicholson has to sit for Beran, the Cats still could pull it out.

 

[bjm989]

Cats need to go to the rim WITHIN THE OFFENSE (not through isos when all help defenders are ready, watching, and in position.).

Back when the Cats were doing this, they were at the line more and getting better shots everywhere.

 

[NJcatsfan]

For what it’s worth, Nevada is getting absolutely destroyed by ASU right now. They’ve given up 50+ in the first half. Nevada both beat Boise State (close, in Reno) and lost to Boise State (not close in Boise) this season. This means…things, maybe.

 

[CappyNU]

The Mountain West conference is notoriously terrible in the tourney, not sure if it's a matter of being used to playing at elevation and losing that advantage or what, but let's hope it continues tomorrow.

 

[NJcatsfan]

The Mountain West conference is notoriously terrible in the tourney, not sure if it's a matter of being used to playing at elevation and losing that advantage or what, but let's hope it continues tomorrow.

I wish the MW’s history of futility (and BSU’s specifically) in the tourney made me feel *better* vs worse/paranoid 😂

 

[NUCat320]

The Mountain West conference is notoriously terrible in the tourney, not sure if it's a matter of being used to playing at elevation and losing that advantage or what, but let's hope it continues tomorrow.

The B1G has also had its struggles lately.

Izzo has made it out of the first weekend once since 2016. Fran never has at Iowa. Indiana hasn’t won a game in 6 years (one appearance). Illinois has been out in the round of 32 both times under Underwood.

Purdue has made the sweet 16 four of five years.

Michigan has made several runs but won’t this year.

Gosh I’m so excited to watch the Cats tomorrow.

 

[NJcatsfan]

ASU came within a bucket of scoring 100.